You really have to be wary of one-year starters. When the hype for Trubisky was all over sports media, no one paid any attention, or if they did, they mentioned it as an aside and continued to polish his knob.
Absolutely a pitfall, but I've won some good bets with the Bills this year because they were undervalued by other bettors.
I have sworn off parlays and have discovered the world of player props. Take the Jets game for example. The O/U for Diggs receptions was a stupid low 3.5. Who in their right mind thought Diggs would have fewer than 4 catches against the Jets? Boom, easy money. Same with Josh Allen O/U 1.5 TD passes.
Here's one from yesterday: Singletary receiving yards: 19.5. Again a no-brainer. He ended up with 50. Now that the Bills and Allen are the darlings of the NFL it's going to be tougher to find those gems. I did lose on the Diggs O/U. It was 4.5 and he only got 4 receptions. Damn penalties.
No question defense has looked bad all season, and this game really showed just how bad. But the Rams are really really good too. Wait till we play SEA, AZ and SF.