PBF81

Can you imagine Belichick doing what we did on the KO and the last couple of plays in the "13 Seconds" game. Or in our "Whiskey Tango Foxtrot D" game vs. Cinci this year. LOL I can't see any competent coach allowing any of that. It's great that we have a character-oriented chime monkey as a Head Coach, that's all fine and dandy, but when you conduct "13 Seconds" and "Whiskey Tango Foxtrot," you draw the kind of attention to yourself that is occurring now. That's on you. Also, not coming clean in press conferences, and then preaching accountability, BUT, when it's your own coordinators that need to be held to account you do nothing except fire some poor slob coach who was missing his starting players for much of the season, yet still had them playing well, ... I mean are we to take that seriously? LOL But I have a hunch that he's got a lot more power than he should by design. I mean name one other head coach in modern history that got to choose his own GM? And it makes no sense that in being able to do so, that the GM you hire has the ability to fire you. Why do we think that that GM also came from Carolina. LOL Maybe there is one, I don't know of any though. Belichick kind of is as he's his own GM, but he's also won 6 SBs and it didn't take him 10 or 15 years of head coaching to do it. If there is one then I suspect that it was a coach that earned that privilege. McD didn't earn that. I suspect that it's going to take Pegula to make the appropriate changes, but I'm not sure he's up to the task these days. That would make more sense in the context of this conversation if you listed the QBs that all of those coaches had. Allen is a generational talent. Let's make that exercise easy. Of those coaches inferred, how many had a QB Allen's caliber or even close? Let's start there. Belichick coincidentally made the playoffs and won a SB the very same season that Mo Lewis made his QB change for him, since he couldn't do it.

Once again, those guys didn't have Allen. If they had, they wouldn't have lasted nearly as long. Reid would have won a SB with Allen in Philly. Hell, a bunch of our teams from 2000 - 2016 would have at least "made the playoffs" with Allen, perhaps done better than we have therein. I don't think that Cowher, Dungy, or Coughlin were stupid enough to produce a "13 Seconds" or whatever kind of "defense" we were playing against Cinci. IDK, maybe it was the Participation Ribbon Defense or something. But can you imagine Coughlin having done that? LOL, I can't, not ever, even as a rookie coach. When you post the #1 or #2 Defense, and then go into the playoffs and do those things, it strongly suggests that you're out of your league in the playoffs. When you allow that same defense to allow 27 points and 412 Yards to Cinci, 36 points and 488 Yards to KC in regulation, 24 points and 472 Yards to the Colts led by Rivers, and 38 points and 439 Yards to the Chiefs, etc., then it suggests that you're out of your league. The Cinci D allowed an average of fewer than 17 PPG in three playoff games this season. KC allowed an average of 20 PPG against Jax & Cinci. The Bengals and their 6th and 17th ranked Defense this and last season have allowed an average of fewer than 19 PPG in their 7 playoff games the last two seasons. KC and their 16th and 8th ranked Defense this and last season have allowed an average of 26.5 PPG in their 6 playoff games. We and our 2nd and 1st ranked Defense have allowed an average of over 29 PPG in our four playoff games this and last season, including a 17 point game against NE which has no offense. Then of course "13 Seconds" and our "Whiskey Tango Foxtrot D" against Cinci. Again, if Allen weren't here, we wouldn't have even made the playoffs under McD & Beane much less won the division or a single playoff game. I mean LMAO, can you imagine what we'd have been like over the past five or six seasons with Peterman, Barkley, or Keenum. LOL What, an average of 6 wins/season? Which of our OL-men would you say are individually good?

Reid didn't have anything close to Allen either. If those teams had all had Allen we'd have made the playoffs a bunch of times during that "Last 20 Years ". People understand Allen's impact.

Much more so us tho.

Roger. Just not one I'm going to give Beane credit for. Beane's draft contributions to our OL is effectively Spencer Brown.

Just a heads up, Dawkins wasn't even on Beane's watch. Neither were White or Milano. All were 2017 and that draft wasn't his. Go Bills! The biggest concern for us is that people are saying that Allen has an out clause after the 2025 season, three more seasons. If that's true and Allen isn't happy by then, he may very well walk, and who could blame him if he's got a half-assed OL and questionable receivers.

BTW, in contrast, here is Cinci's drafted roster over the same five year time period, a team that just dusted our normal starting roster chock full of free agents. WR: Chase WR: Higgins ... not including Boyd drafted two years earlier OT: Williams G: Volson G/T: Carman drafted this past year QB: Burrow DE: Hubbard was '18 but he's a better DE than anyone we have LB: Wilson LB: Pratt And those are their legitimate starting players, for us I just put in anyone that was drafted. There's no comparison. ... and BTW, I have a difficult time believing that that's average, our drafts under Beane that is.

Singletary was a late 3rd-rounder, he's done fine considering. As RBs go it was a fine pick there in the late 3rd, but we need more. I mean does Singletary really contribute to us winning games more than many RBs would? I don't think so. This past season he ranked 25th in rushing yards for RBs. We're talking about the team as a whole here, not each individual pick and whether or not they meet up to standards. When we think of Singletary can we think of a time that he even took over one game, in four seasons? No. He had a great game vs. Atlanta, but hardly took it over. Allen was gawd awful, so we can count that, but the point is that he doesn't give us anything that any moderate FA RB would. Yes, this is subjective. But a lot of it also includes how to build a team, the big picture view. It seems to me that Beane is missing that element. And look at the number of defensive players he's drafted, you'd think that given the sheer volume of them he'd have hit on one premier player, but he hasn't. Oliver's probably the best, but he disappears for games at a time, he's good, very good when he's on, but hardly great and certainly not a premier or impact player. And LOL, the national media's talking about Edmunds as if he's Patrick Willis now. Here's another angle, here's our starting line-up given only Beane's drafted players and not including Allen who carries the entire team. RB: Singletary (Presumably Cook now) RT: Spencer Brown OL: Tommy Doyle WR1: Gabe Davis WR2: Khalil Shakir TE: Knox DE: Rousseau DE: Epenesa DT: Oliver DT: Basham LB: Edmunds LB: Bernard LB: Spectre CB: Dane Jackson CB: Benford CB: Neal CB: Taron Johnson S: Jaquan Johnson IDK, I view that as entirely unimpressive. I mean where are we going with that lineup other than for the basement of whatever division we're in. Even with Allen I don't think that we even make a wild card with that. We get rocked on both sides. ... and BTW, now take Edmunds out of that mix. It borders on pathetic.

Agreed, but is he going to live off of that singular pick? McD too? Because they are. That's a lot of peoples' point.

BTW, I disagree that the LBs were fine with just Edmunds and Milano on the field. IMO we need a third, and not some backup stiff. If they were that good then we wouldn't have allowed average RBs to tear us apart. I have no idea what their plan is with only Milano as a starting caliber LB on the roster now. Good luck with that. I'm of the opinion that they tweaked the LB unit to only have two LBs simply because they didn't have a third worth starting. What now, a 4-1-6? 5-1-5?

I would argue that he hasn't even done as good a job as some of his predecessors, but he's getting far more credit than they did because of Allen. But what you said right there, average isn't good enough. So if after five years of his management it's not good enough, what's the basis for the hope that for some reason all of a sudden he's going to be drafting top-5? That's what people are seeing. And I would say that it's even below average. Look at the list of players that he's drafted that I put up and ask yourself, if we had to field those as the core of our team, and bring on only average free agents, how would we do? A solid OT should be available and there will be plenty of solid G/C prospects when we're up in rounds 2/3. I'd bet you a beer though that we don't take an offensive lineman in round 1. I don't think it's in McBeane's blood. LOL

OK, but that has to do with Beane's drafting, or lack thereof, right? How would you rate our LB corps now going into 2023? Or our secondary? RBs? After Edmunds leaves about the only noteworthy player on the roster is Oliver, and he hasn't performed up to the standards expected as stated by the team when they drafted him. A lot of people think that Rousseau will come on, but he faded, not came on, over the last 8 games of the season, so we'll see, but until it happens ...

Imagine Allen on the 2002 8-8 Bills team with Moulds, Price, Reed, Riemersma, Centers, Henry (who had over 1,400 yards) and with the OL of Jennings, Brown, Teague (C), Sullivan, and Mike Williams. I see a 14-2 team with Allen instead of brick-footed Bledsoe. We have arguably the worst OL since the pre-Super Bowl years. And BTW, Singletary's been our best RB and he topped out at 870 Rushing Yards and 7 TDs. The only other 1,000 Yard receiver we had was Brown before Diggs got here, and that was just barely. Otherwise Beasley with 967 and 4 TDs in 2020. After that not a sniff.

My argument is that we should be drafting better overall, that our drafts haven't produced a single impact player on Beane's watch apart from Allen, who carries the entire team. That's my argument. Beane gets a whole lot of credit for "turning this franchise around," but I'm not seeing that he's done a better job than his predecessors. Again, take away Allen and IMO this team is on average worse than it's been over that "Last 20 Years." We've had some really decent rosters over that 20-year period, just no QB. Put Allen on them and there's an entirely different perspective. I've been thinking of how better to illustrate this and I decided to list all of Beane's draft picks (besides Allen) and categorize them. Here's that list. When you look at it, ask yourself how this team would perform if Beane's draftees were its primary core. Because as I see it, it's been Beane's free agents, known quantities, and even there he's wasted a lot of money, that have carried this team, not his draftees, along with preexisting players. Von Miller, Poyer, Milano, Hyde, White, Morse, other OL-men (and they're not even great either), Diggs. The starters as listed on TOS as of when I posted this have an asterisk. Are the drafted starters impressive? I'm just not seeing that. I suppose that it's subjective, but if we had to fill in around that with average free agents we would suck. 3 Spencer Brown* 93 OL 5 Tommy Doyle 161 OL 2 James Cook 63 RB 3 Devin Singletary* 74 RB (Likely Gone) 5 Khalil Shakir 148 WR 4 Gabriel Davis* 128 WR 3 Dawson Knox* 96 TE 7 Tommy Sweeney 228 TE 1 Ed Oliver* 9 DT 1 Gregory Rousseau* 30 DL 2 A.J. Epenesa 54 DE 2 Boogie Basham 61 DL 1 Tremaine Edmunds* 16 ILB (Likely Gone) 3 Terrel Bernard 89 LB 7 Baylon Spector 231 LB 1 Kaiir Elam 23 CB 4 Taron Johnson* 121 CB 5 Siran Neal 154 CB 6 Jaquan Johnson 181 CB 6 Christian Benford 185 DB 6 Damar Hamlin 212 DB 7 Dane Jackson* 239 CB 6 Tyler Bass 188 K No Longer on the Team 5 Jake Fromm 167 QB 2 Cody Ford 38 T 5 Wyatt Teller 166 G 6 Luke Tenuta 209 OL 7 Jack Anderson 236 OL 3 Zack Moss 86 RB 6 Isaiah Hodgins 207 WR 6 Ray-Ray McCloud 187 WR 6 Marquez Stevenson 203 WR 7 Austin Proehl 255 WR 3 Harrison Phillips 96 DT 7 Darryl Johnson 225 DE

OK But who said, for example, that we had to trade up and select a LB, again, as mere one example. Or that at 9th that year we had to take a DT. That's a flawed thought process. I'll continue to stand on my points, and if Beane has drafted so well, them why isn't the team incapable of competing without Allen. Why, other than for Allen, have McBeane's predecessors generally speaking out together better overall rosters apart from the QB position. Why do we have so many starting needs right now. How come apart from Allen we have no drafted premier players, they either pre existed Beane or he had to buy them. I mean what, the best player we can produce in the draft is Oliver, at 9th overall on top of it? ... and after that Edmunds at a trafde-up 16th? And who after that not in the first 16 picks? What, Singtletary? That really seem good to you?

Maybe. LOL What we do know is that rest of the team by itself can't play on two without Allen.

I can see anything happening next season. I can see us going 8-9 with some bad luck, I can see us going 13-4 again. If Allen were to go down wins would become few and far between with the team and coaching the way it is. If he were to go out in the preseason my guess for record would be 6-11. We're entirely non-competitive without him. He is the team.

Agreed, and he was too on/off for that kind of money. Having said that I do believe that he is a fish out of water and that he will thrive in a system that understands how he's best utilized. Since that's not us his departure is best for both sides. The problem is that who do we have at LB after that that's starter quality? Answer: Milano LOL, how on earth are we going to correct that along with addressing our OL, WR, RB, DB, some kind of pass-rusher, etc. in one offseason. Short answer: we're not. I guess we'll change to a 5-1-5 While unimaginable this season, I can see us going 2-4 in the division. Philly, Cinci, Chiefs, Cowboys, Giants are all problematic games for us at this point. Carr might be what makes the Jets better than us, even with Allen we only averaged 18.5 PPG against them this season. If they get any kind of offense I can see them taking two from us. Miami's already competitive, once with Thompson. Not good.

Wrong approach? LOL What "approach" is it to leave Hill and Kelce Wide f'n Open for them to get all the yards they need in a matter of seconds. We won't even mention the "approach" for the prior Kickoff. I mean honestly, one shouldn't have to be a DC for even a month to understand that that's the one thing that you DO NOT WANT TO DO. Same in the Cinci game, let's leave all of our DBs and coverage guys 10-15 yards off the LoS on key 3rd-downs. I mean really, what defense is there for coaching like that? What defense is there for not doing something about it as the Head Coach. That's why I think that McD has much more say in "Frasier's D" than we think. They lost me after preaching accountability, but when it comes to them, then all of a sudden there is no accountability. That's hypocrisy and that doesn't sit well with me. They can go fool some other people, not me.

Wow, talk about an incredibly accurate concise statement! Very accurately stated!

I couldn't agree more, particularly with the Jets and Fins making a monumental leap this past season. Miami nearly beat us all three times, and did once although that was a bogus game. Still, the combined point differential in all three games was +4 for us. We split with the Jets, and neither team has the QB that we have. It'll be critical for us to win the division this next season too. Going into the playoffs as a wild-card wouldn't be good. I don't envision any scenario in which we miss the playoffs as long as Allen stays healthy. Having said that, if Allen were to get hurt in the preseason I wouldn't bet a rusty penny that we have a winning record. We'll see what happens, but if this Draft is like his past ones I'm concerned. Apparently we won't do much in Free Agency according to Beane.

Phillips played to his late 3rd round draft status. Remember, he was never a pass-rushing prospect. He was more of a gap-filling DT, which he did decently. Was he an impact player? No, but at the tail end of the 3rd round that isn't expected. I'd say he's played better at DT than his offensive counterpart Spencer Brown has at OT and both were drafted within a couple of picks of the same draft spot. I'd be pretty happy if we could get the same level of play out of Brown at the RT spot. The Rams overachieved last season, '21 , also. I wouldn't mind seeing us overachieve in the playoffs one of these seasons. By hook or by crook I'd take a Championship!

Lotulolei cost us over $30M for the three years he played here, and not including 2020 when he sat out. Talk about a waste. That Carolina connection for the players we've stripped from them hasn't worked out well at all. Lotulolei, Benjamin, Addison, Jones, Obada, Butler. Them going there and so constantly coming up empty is troubling. It's as if they're completely afraid to step out of their comfort zones which is the way that they stock the team, with a ridiculous overemphasis on Defense in both the Drafts and Free Agency. It wouldn't be so bad if some of their DE pass-rush draft choices would turn into an impact player. To what extent does that have to do with Allen however? How would this team be doing with QBs like Taylor, Fitzpatrick, Orton, Bledsoe (LOL, in particular with his brick feet), etc. I don't think even average by our standards back then.

You implicitly raise a great point, albeit perhaps unwittingly. IMO the overall teams of that "Last 20 Years" period often had better talent than we had. We simply struggled to find a QB that was better than average. If we had had Allen on many of those teams we'd have done better overall than we are now. I even think that some of those coaches were better gameday/on-field coaches. It is easy to underestimate the impact that Allen has had here. There's no doubt in my mind that had we had Allen in some of those seasons we'd have made the playoffs easily and likely even won the division over a Brady-led Pats too.

Great piece!!! But not really mentioned or even implied in the piece is, "What are you getting for your money?" (Cash in particular, but Cap also, Contracts in general) You have to have talent to compete regardless of where it comes from. Whether it walks in from stocking supermarket shelves, as Undrafted Free Agents, 6th & 7th Round draft picks, 4th & 5th Round draft picks, or Day 1 & 2 draft picks, Veteran Free Agents, etc. But the most expensive ones are Veteran Free Agents. When those don't perform and you haven't been able to get the required play from your draftees, that's when cap issues begin to mount, and when the amount of money going out isn't coming back to you. That's when the team's that are getting back from what they spent will outperform you.