beebe

Did we figure out why the league decided to put the Bengals in the Super Bowl? Just wanted to switch things up that year?

Bills point spreads in all their playoff games since 2020: Bills +1 at Chiefs Bills +1 vs Ravens Bills -7.5 vs Broncos Bills -2.5 vs Chiefs Bills -10 vs Steelers Bills -4.5 vs Bengals Bills -10 vs Dolphins Bills +2.5 at Chiefs Bills -4.5 vs Patriots Bills +3 at Chiefs Bills -2.5 vs Ravens Bills -6 vs Colts The Bills have stacked up extremely well the last five years. In 12 playoff games, they've been favored in eight of them. They've been underdogs of +1 at home, and +1, +2.5, +3 on the road (all at KC). Unless you think the NFL playoff betting market is inefficient, the Bills have had pretty damn good teams, and they profile as a team that could have and should have advanced to a Super Bowl in one of these last five years. They've been ousted four of five times by perhaps the best dynasty in NFL history. Nothing more, nothing less.

it was a weird exchange indeed, i thought more from chris jones’ side. unless jones was certain he wouldn’t have to take the field again. but the chiefs still needed two first downs from there.

Bills-Chiefs starts midway through.

Nobody is enjoying the incessant griping about the officials more than Sean McDermott. The coaching staff has been given more of a free pass than they deserve. The Bills have been confident in the tush push play all season long. You can understand why. But it was not a guarantee. The Rams showed us that nearly two months ago. It was clear after the first few tush pushes that the Chiefs were defending it pretty well. Whatever you thought the success rate of the tush push should be prior to the game - Allen was 28 for 35 (80%) on the year when the Bills needed 1 yard or less - after the first two attempts, you would be foolish not to downgrade those chances. If you count the PAT attempt which was stuffed, the Bills were 2 for their first 5 attempts when using Allen as a runner and needing 1 yard or less. The sixth attempt, Allen resorted to reaching the ball out to convert the 4th-and-1. The fact he did this at midfield rather than at the goal line, where you have some fumble protection the instant it crosses the plane, should have been yet another red flag that something was wrong here. But alas, the Bills improved to 3-for-6 when needing 1 yard with Allen. Which set up the fateful 7th attempt, which was ruled short. The Bills went 3-for-7 (42.9%) when needing 1 yard. Whether he gained the necessary yardage or not, the closeness of the six prior attempts indicated that the 7th one could be very close. And when you have 20+ players crowded around a pile and a couple of geezer refs trying to spot the ball, there's an element of chance involved if it isn't crystal clear beyond words that you converted. It was not crystal clear. Replay reviewed it. The call was upheld. In other words, McDermott/Brady essentially left it for the officials to decide, when all the talk leading up to the game was that the Chiefs had the refs in their pocket. If you truly believe that, you probably don't call that play. Then again, if McDermott had challenged the prior play with Kincaid, there perhaps wouldn't even be a need for the 4th-and-1 play at all. (Unless you think Kincaid was clearly short or inconclusively short.) Instead, the Bills raced to the line of scrimmage to get off the fateful 4th-and-1 tush push. They snapped the ball 13 seconds after the Kincaid play ended. The decision was made and it was made quickly. The Kincaid play was nearest the Bills sideline, so they should have had a perfect look at it. They opted to play on instead. Overconfidence in the tush push - in addition to not finding any creative ways to mix it up - crushed the Bills in this game.

the chiefs were 4-for-6 scoring TDs in the red zone in playoff game.

It's been reported that Mahomes has had influence on the Chiefs' last two wide receiver picks, and before that, he wanted Clyde Edwards-Helaire (he was fine, but never seemed the same after that nasty injury he had vs the Saints). Rashee Rice: Analyst Adam Lefkoe revealed that Mahomes had been texting him, stating that he had thrown passes to Rice during their sessions in Dallas. Mahomes then shared that he has input on all offensive guys and played a role in the Chiefs selecting Rice. Xavier Worthy: As this year's NFL draft approached, general manager Brett Veach met with quarterback Patrick Mahomes to discuss some of the players the Kansas City Chiefs were considering with their first-round pick. Veach and the Chiefs didn't plan to defer on the choice to Mahomes but were certainly interested in his opinions. Mahomes walked into the meeting having studied enough video on wide receivers that Veach called him a "tape-a-holic.'' The two-time NFL MVP had broken down film on Georgia's Ladd McConkey and Florida State's Keon Coleman -- but he had a different favorite. The one with the slight build from the University of Texas who had recently run the 40-yard dash in 4.21 seconds, a record for the scouting combine. Mahomes liked the speed of this receiver, Xavier Worthy, and sent Veach a fire emoji after news of Worthy's 40 at the combine. But he saw a complete player who could do more than run fast. "Pat doesn't just come in and say, 'Let's draft a wideout,'" Veach said. "Well, there's a lot of wideouts. But Pat has a vision like a coach has a vision. He'll pull out plays from a game like he's seen it all. He's done the work. It's not just TV scouting but actual film work. "Of the guys we were talking about, Worthy was the guy he really liked. He doesn't rank guys. He just tells you what he thinks. But you could tell that he was most excited about Worthy.''

The Chiefs have scored touchdowns on 58 of 91 (63.7%) red-zone trips all time in the playoffs in the Reid/Mahomes era which is a watered-down number considering some games they didn't attempt to score TDs (ie kneel downs, game-winning FGs etc). The true # is probably closer to 66%. Their regular season avg TD percentage in Reid/Mahomes era is roughly 61.5%. Defensive ranks of playoff teams KC has faced in Reid/Mahomes era (per ESPN power index): #4, #10, #1, #9, #11, #17, #2, #5, #16, #1, #14, #17, #6, #10, #19, #3, #15, #23, #8, #12. So against a playoff schedule that consists of 11 top-10 defenses, and facing defenses that rank 10th on average overall, the Chiefs have outperformed their TD percentage in the playoffs (when it matters) compared to the regular season (when it matters less). And that's before adjusting for the tougher competition.

i'm guessing the chiefs overperform in the red zone vs all the best teams (particularly in playoffs). they're not wasting their good red zone plays against the raiders and saints in regular season games. the designed mahomes QB run was a rarity that the bills said they weren't prepared for. the chiefs have schemed skyy moore, kadarius toney, MVS and mecole hardman WIDE OPEN near the goal line in super bowls. justin watson wasn't targeted a single time in either playoff game this year yet caught the 2-pt attempt vs the bills. the list goes on.

it’s entirely possible, but i’d still maintain given the range of possible outcomes, it worked out in the bills’ favor and nearly turned into a bills +1 had they gotten the 2-pointer. kc scoring at the buzzer to go ahead 21-10 at half plus ball first would have felt very hard to overcome the way the game was going at that point.

the worthy completion was best case scenario for bills. without it, chiefs likely drain out the rest of the 1st half clock and kick FG or score TD with minimal time left. So either +3 or +7. instead the chiefs scored quickly, giving bills time to reply before HT. after missed 2-pointer it was merely Chiefs +1 net.

Get in price close to $500 now. Prices have almost doubled.

The Eagles fired McDermott on Jan 15, 2011 at 5:40pm ET. The Panthers hired McDermott on Jan 17, 2011, at 5:03pm ET. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that Andy had something to do with him getting the job in Carolina so quickly.

Worthy was targeted five times against the Bills. Since: He's been targeted 6 times, 7 times, 6 times, 11 times, 11 times, 9 times, and 6 times. It was literally the fewest targets Worthy has gotten since mid November. As for the Andy-McDermott thing, don't think it could be further from the truth. McDermott appeared alongside former Andy assistants John Harbaugh, Ron Rivera and Doug Pederson for an Andy puff piece TV segment, and Andy has always maintained that he did what was best for McDermott in Philly to shield him from the outside noise (Andy himself got fired by Philly two years later.) **** In July of 2009, he got his big break at the expense of legendary defensive coordinator Jim Johnson, who was dying of cancer. Reid named the then 35-year-old McDermott as Johnson’s replacement. A year and a half later, he fired him. “Anybody who’s been fired, it’s impossible not to have a lot of emotions over it,’’ said Joe Banner, who was the Eagles’ president at the time. “Sean is a very prideful guy with a lot of confidence. It’d be crazy to think he didn’t believe in himself at the time and didn’t think Andy and the organization was making a mistake. “But they both came from a place of mutual respect. Andy was invested in Sean’s future even though he was making the change. He truly believed he was going to have a great career even as he was letting him go.’’ Reid believed it enough to find a landing spot for McDermott before he even officially cut him loose. He called former Eagles assistant Ron Rivera, who was then the Carolina Panthers’ head coach, and recommended him for the Panthers’ vacant defensive coordinator’s job. “Andy felt if Sean was in a different situation he would do great,’’ Banner said.

ever left arrowhead before? you'll be lucky to get out of the parking lot by midnight 😄, one of the worst out-flow postgame stadiums in the league. shocking considering the stadium is in the middle of nowhere with easy interstate access.

these are all 6-8 hour round-trip drives just noting. wichita is another option but also 3 hours away from kc. pretty miserable weekend with a loss. likely worth it with a win, but still a pretty exhausting trip for 3 hours of football.

I'd be very surprised if there's many (if any) seats that fall to $150 after fees. I checked all the stadiums for last week's game, KC was the cheapest of the four but also had the least desirable matchup. even the the worst nosebleeds were still above $125 near kickoff. Many re-sale seats you see are pipedream listings from sellers who intend to go but can be bought out for the right price. For example, the lower level section behind the Chiefs, between the 40s, here's the prices currently listed: Box office prices $1196/each (4 total) Re-sell prices $3641, $4758, $2259, $2975, $2351, $3001, $2971, $2015, $1785, $2975, $2380, $1428, $2021, $1249, $1545, $2588, $1779, $2882, $2618, $2540, $2570, $2328, $2328 etc. Maybe a handful of these seats (priced in low 1000s) will sell on re-sale market at current prices. The rest will either be taken down or substantially reduced, likely to the $750-1k range.

just checked chiefs ticketmaster. here's the lowest current prices per ticket (all include taxes/fees): lowers between the 40s: $1200 30-40 yd line: $900 goal line-30 yd line (avg): $775 corners: $600 end zone: $535 club between the 40s: $2000+ 30-40 yd line: $1750 goal line-30 yd line (avg): $1600 corners: $1250 endzone: $1050 uppers you can find seats as low as $330. but these are mostly confined to corners in the upper rows and arrowhead is a huge stadium (4th largest capacity in the nfl) so those are not great seats. for low-row uppers in good locations you're likely spending above $500/seat.

the tickets coming from the chiefs aren't face value. they price them in line with whatever the re-sale market is. there's seats in club level for over $1500, others for over $2000. there's lower levels being priced as high as $1600. there are various upper level corners for $450. "dynamic pricing" or whatever you call it. some stadiums (including buffalo) are now listing their tickets as all-in price, which is a good move. an additional good move would be to show the actual face value of each seat. when you click ticketmaster and see blue seats offered directly from the chiefs, you would assume that's the face value of the ticket. but that isn't the case. that's their jacked-up price to ensure they get the same amount as the re-seller who has seats in the same/similar locations. people think they're getting a deal when in reality they're getting smoked. prices should fall closer to game day.

He is the most penalized player in the entire NFL the last two years. Do the refs miss some? Of course.

the refs have zero incentive - none - to intentionally get calls wrong. they are graded after every game internally, and fans and media grade them publicly. being wrong leads to less opportunity to call playoff games and super bowls. do people actually think the nfl is going to tell clete blakeman and his crew to cheat for the chiefs? for what purpose? so they can cultivate more swiftie viewers in the short term while jeopardizing the long term? (ie scandal, lack of trust, gambling ramifications etc.) this would be literal criminal behavior if such a thing took place. it would be game fixing directed by the league to be carried out by the people charged with maintaining fair play. officiating is incredibly hard. there’s a subset of national tv games every year that have so many 50/50 bang-bang subjective/judgment calls that it’s almost comical. like, the refs are wrong no matter what they call. the broadcasters think A, the rules experts think B, and the fans are going to think whatever benefits their team, goes against the team they hate or whatever helps their bets. most people who opine about the rules don’t even know the rulebook themselves (i have watched 1000+ games and i don’t know all the rules myself.) bitching about refs has gone too far. it’s too frequently the story because slow motion replay, freeze frames and instant reaction social media takes - often by the most conspiratorial morons on earth - makes it the story. once you accept that missed calls are inevitable and random, you will enjoy watching sports more.

among active QBs, josh allen draws the most roughing the passer penalties in the NFL on a per-game basis with 38 in 122 games (0.31 per game). allen drew 11 roughing the passer penalties in the 2020 season. i believe that is a modern NFL record (no other QB has drawn more than 8 in a year in data that goes back the last 15 years.) allen had seven roughing calls last year and five more this year. mahomes has had 31 career roughing the passer penalties, or 0.23 per game, which ranks him ninth among active QBs. but mahomes also throws far more than the league average and has attempted more passes than his peers who entered the league at roughly the same time. for example, mahomes has attempted ~800 more passes than allen since entering the league and has played nine more games (includes playoffs). given that, you'd expect mahomes to have more - not less. if you break it down by dropbacks, it looks like this: allen: 0.93 per 100 (3rd most penalties drawn) mahomes: 0.64 per 100 (20th most) among the 31 roughing the passer penalties for mahomes, eight of them have come in playoff games or super bowls. someone with more time than me can go through the eight plays and determine if they are legit or not - or the timing - or how much they mattered. i don't think the chiefs get preferential treatment from refs. the numbers actually suggest the opposite (not just mahomes, but the chiefs in general.) the common counter argument is that "it's not how many penalties, it's when." i read a recent analysis that suggested the chiefs are not major beneficiaries in one-score games in 2nd halves either. the fans of 31 teams who call the refs biased for the chiefs likely have a bias against the chiefs themselves. they're sick of the chiefs. they actively root against the chiefs. and nobody plays in primetime or on national tv more than the chiefs. "calling out the chiefs" has become an easy way for media members to get attention and claiming the refs don't have bias but are equally bad for all teams is the surest way to be hated and called a clown. no other team in the league has fans that all come together to create frame-by-frame replays, zoomed-in images and super slow motion videos quite like the chiefs. because of this, the chiefs flags draw outsized attention/coverage/reaction. people simply don't care if there's a bad call in a panthers or colts game. interestingly, america defended the chiefs in the 2018 afc championship game when two and possibly three rotten calls went against them to help the patriots win the game. but at that point in time, america loved mahomes and the chiefs and were alleging that the patriots got all the calls and that the nfl was cheating for them. next time you watch a bills game and see a bad call - whether it be the atrocious call against dawkins or the questionable pass interference penalty that benefited coleman in the ravens game - just ask yourself: "what if this was the chiefs?" because those calls, while they got some attention, generated very little media coverage broadly. and the PI flag, whether it was right or wrong, was probably the biggest call of the game in terms of win expectancy.

how many is fans of buffalo expecting any idea? i know a few who are interested

Just peeked at box office sale, tickets are unbelievably high. Prices are what you would expect for Vegas, New York or LA, not Kansas City. Are there 75,000+ people in KC area who can afford $750 uppers and lowers as high as 2k? There are club levels with $2500 face.

i generally agree that the chiefs have been more healthy than unhealthy in the playoffs for the mahomes era but they've taken some brutal lumps of their own. their shot at b2b super bowls was pretty much crushed due to injuries all along the offensive line before the bucs game (bucs DL chased mahomes all over the yard.) last year, they lost all pro left guard joe thuney and their best non chris jones pass rusher charles omenihu to season ending injuries in the playoffs. mahomes has had to leave two different playoff games (didnt finish the game vs browns in 2020, forced to the locker room by andy vs jags in 2022) and his injury was believed to be so limiting before the bengals '22 afc title game that the chiefs opened as 3.5 point home underdogs. mahomes was limited during the super bowls vs bucs and eagles. but yes, they've ran pretty well on injuries as a whole, certainly haven't racked up major cluster injuries at a position outside of the aforementioned OL disaster in 2020.