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I don't think the Chiefs are going to keep Sneed. I think it's a clear tag-and-trade situation. In a perfect world, they'd trade Sneed for an elite receiver, which would then give them the flexibility to get a receiver in either Rd 1 or Rd 2 of the draft. If they don't get a veteran receiver pre draft, I think it's a near certainty that they draft receiver in the first round. The most likely scenario is they trade Sneed for draft picks to help them rebuild their wide receivers and add depth at OL. The Chiefs have four very cheap options at cornerback already with McDuffie on a rookie deal, plus Joshua Williams and Jaylen Watson also on rookie deals. Nazeeh Johnson, a former 7th-round pick, was actually slated to be a starting cornerback for the Chiefs this year before his injury. He will be back in the fold. And yes, he's on a rookie deal. Playing Williams and Watson only 30-40% of the snaps—and Johnson perhaps the same or less—doesn't make any sense. Those picks were hits and you get them cheaply. Letting them ride pine in favor of an expensive veteran mitigates the advantage they've earned to go extremely cheap at the position.

Don't think that matters. If KC contacted Hardman or if the two sides engaged in trade chatter without the Jets' knowledge then I feel like this should constitute something? You could argue that Hardman's contact with KC motivated him to be difficult with the Jets. Again, did the Jets know? We're assuming the worst in this exercise. It could have been completely innocent on both sides.

Most (all?) tampering charges in the NFL seem to surround free agents. This would involve a player who ultimately got traded from one team to another. It was publicly reported that the Jets were exploring trade options for Hardman on Oct 10th. The Chiefs traded for him on Oct 18th. Hardman stated he was "already checked out" prior to KC's game vs the Jets on Oct 1st, where he says to Mahomes and Veach to "come get me." It's unknown if the Jets had already engaged in conversations with the Chiefs at that point regarding Hardman. If they had, then I'd assume this absolves the Chiefs of any wrongdoing. It's also possible Hardman didn't actually talk to Mahomes/Veach on Oct 1st when he said and that it was actually after trade discussions were underway between the two teams prior to the Oct 18 trade. In the end, not sure there was an actual victim here. The Jets and Chiefs ultimately engaged in trade talks and completed a trade and the Jets received compensation for a player they wanted to get rid of. These seem to be the relevant parts of the potential tampering policy (below). Trade Discussions. Unless a new club has received written permission directly from a player’s employer club, entering into discussions with a player or his agent concerning the new club’s interest in acquiring the player via trade or otherwise would constitute a violation of the Anti-Tampering Policy. Under no circumstances should a new club rely upon any written or oral representation by a player or his agent that he has received permission to enter into discussions for a trade or negotiations for a contract. Nor should a new club rely upon a letter from the employer club to the agent or player granting such permission since employer clubs typically reserve the right to withdraw permission at any time, and may have already done so. Permission must be 4 NFL Anti-Tampering Policy (2018-2019) received by the new club directly from the employer club and should be in writing to protect the interests of both clubs. Assumption of Risk. To avoid potentially embarrassing situations and possible disciplinary actions, clubs are reminded that any contact by members of one organization with players of another organization could potentially interfere with an employer-employee relationship of the second club, even if the circumstances surrounding the contact may appear to be innocent. The Competition Committee has reviewed the Anti-Tampering Policy on numerous occasions and has always emphasized that great care and judgment must be exercised when any contact is made between the members of an organization and players from other teams, even in situations in which close personal relationships may exist. Although the Policy does not prohibit conversations or other forms of communication that are strictly social in nature, such communication can quickly and easily cross the line into prohibited topics of the type discussed in Section 3(b)(6) below. For this reason, clubs whose personnel engage in such social contact do so at their own risk and expose themselves and their clubs to discipline. Contact by Player. If a club is contacted by a player (or his representative) who is under contract to or whose negotiating rights are held by another club, and such player has not been given permission to negotiate with other clubs, or such player is not in a permissible negotiating period under the terms of an operative collective bargaining agreement, then the contacted club is prohibited from (i) negotiating with the player or his agent; (ii) discussing even in general terms the player’s possible employment with the contacted club; or (iii) discussing the player’s contract or his potential or ongoing contract negotiations with his current club. 5 NFL Anti-Tampering Policy (2018-2019) In addition, the contacted club representative must inform the player or his representative that under NFL rules the club is not permitted to discuss such matters, and, if such matters are raised by or with the player or his representative, the club representative must immediately report such contact to the owner or operating head of the club that holds the player’s rights. Nothing in this section shall preclude a club from negotiating with the certified agent of a prospective Unrestricted Free Agent during the two-day negotiating period, subject to that provision’s prohibition against direct contact by the club with the player himself. Example of Tampering. Without limitation to other examples of tampering with another club’s player, the following scenario would constitute a violation of the Anti-Tampering Policy: (i) A club’s representative, or a third-party intermediary of that club (Club A), is involved in a private meeting or conversation with a player (or his representative) who is under contract to, or whose negotiating rights are held by, another club (Club B); and (ii) The League obtains substantiation that before, during or after the above contact with the player, Club A has stated, publicly or privately, its interest in obtaining his services (see “Public/Private Statements” above); and (iii) Contract problems or other disputes subsequently arise between the player and Club B (for example, the player’s failure to report on time to Club B).

Thurman Thomas gained a 1st down at the Buffalo 40-yard line with 1:36 left. They ran four plays in the next 1:28. Just madness. All to settle for a 47-yard field goal by Norwood, who had never made that long of a field goal on grass, and who was 0-for-6 that same year on FGs of 50 plus. The NFL as a whole in 1990: 50+ yard field goals: 28/78 (35.8%) 40-49 yard field goals: 146/235 (62.1%) A 47-yard field goal was probably about a 40% chance at most.

If he said he hasn't given the game another thought, people would be saying he doesn't try to learn from his mistakes and get better. People will see what they want to see.

This article is pretty good overall: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39483957/super-bowl-kansas-city-chiefs-penalties-conspiracy

KC ranks defensive pass interference last 5 years since Spags took over: 2023: 8th most (11) 2022: most (15, next closest was Ravens with 12) 2021: 3rd most (13) 2020: 3rd most (17) 2019: 6th most (11) They were worst in the league in defensive holding in 2019 by a lot (five more than any other team), third worst in 2020, and have managed to be average to barely above average in 2021, 2022 and 2023—largely because they're being flagged for PI's at a league-high rate in that 3-year period instead.

That was probably the most human, non robotic thing an NFL coach has said in 10 years.

He has. But his two best-known defenses - the '07 Giants and the '23 Chiefs - also had some truly elite players. That Giants team led the NFL in sacks (six more than any other team) and had Strahan and Osi Umenyiora creating an unreal pass rush. The next year, without Spags, that same Giants defense gave up 3.5 points less per game and were a top-5 defense. The '23 Chiefs had Chris Jones and the NFL's best secondary. Spags has definitely made a name for himself, and good for him. But outside of those two seasons, he's been a league-average defensive coordinator in his 14 years of running NFL defenses, but has had some notable playoff successes. McDermott has a 100-plus game sample of being very good at running defenses, but has some notable playoff failures.

Both Mahomes and Allen have opened the door in major ways for a larger diversity of QB to be drafted in the NFL. With Mahomes, it was widely believed that his Circus-like improvisational style couldn't translate to the NFL, where defenses would make him pay for his lack of discipline and his mechanical slippages. With Allen, it was widely believed that you couldn't coach up accuracy. He was 52.8% and 58.8% his first two years. Well, he's now averaged 65.5% completion percentage the last four years. His turnovers have more to do with forcing the issue and poor decision making than outright accuracy.

Alex Smith had the best year of his 13-year career in 2017, the year before Mahomes took over. Smith led an offense with great tackles (Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz) and elite skill position talent (Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Kareem Hunt) and was playing for his job trying to hold off Mahomes. Smith finished with 4,042 yards, 26 TDs, 5 INTs, 104.7 QB rating, and KC averaged 25.9 points per game. Mahomes took over as a first-time starter the very next year, with basically the exact same offensive roster. Mahomes finished with 5,097 yards, 50 TDs, 12 INTs, 113.8 QB rating, and KC averaged 35.3 points per game. Smith played with defenses that finished: 5th, 2nd, 3rd, 7th and 15th in points allowed, yet could manage only one playoff victory across five seasons in KC. Mahomes has played with mostly worse defenses by comparison (until 2023), and yet has won 15 playoff games in 18 tries (with losses in OT, OT and in the Super Bowl.) It's almost like it's not all Andy Reid.

Even counting this year's playoff wizardry under Spags, KC's defenses have allowed 5.39 yards per play and 23 points per game across 16 playoff games. They've given up 24+ points in eight of 16 playoff games. They've given up 31 points and 35 points in two of their four Super Bowls. KC has had just two truly dominant defensive playoff outings in the Spags era: Allowing 7 pts on 4.5 yards per play vs the Dolphins this year; and giving up 3.9 yards per play vs the Steelers in Big Ben's final game (Pitt had 21 pts that game, but had a defensive score.) KC's performance vs the Ravens this year would likely take 3rd place, they gave up just 10 points against a very good offense. But Baltimore went 5.9 yards per play and underperformed the scoreboard with the goal line fumble, among other snafus. Where KC has shined in the playoffs under Spags is getting critical stops when they need them most. More specifically, Chris Jones has shined when they need him most. Jones had a huge batted ball in Super Bowl 54 vs the 49ers as well as some big pressures late. He had the critical sack of Joe Burrow in last year's AFC championship game. He got just enough pressure on Josh Allen to alter the throw to Shakir in the divisional round, and had the critical pressure to force the quick Purdy incompletion vs the 49ers late in Super Bowl 58. One area of weakness that stands out for McDermott in the playoffs (and it could just be randomness) is the lack of takeaways. Buffalo has had the most takeaways in the NFL during McDermott's tenure: 188 takeaways in 114 regular season games (1.64 takeaways per game.) But in playoff games, Buffalo has forced just 10 turnovers in 11 playoff games (two were by Mecole Hardman, a fumble out of the end zone and a muffed punt in the 2020 AFC title game.) Buffalo has yet to intercept Mahomes in three playoff games and also didn't intercept Burrow in the other playoff loss.

Spags has been getting credit for beating Brady twice in a Super Bowl for like a decade. It's one of the oddest things. If you do a Twitter search that includes the words "Spags," "Brady" and "twice," you'll see comments about it almost daily. In reality, he was putting the finishing touches on a 10-38 record with the Rams before getting fired (his defenses were mostly terrible.) He caught on with the Saints a year later as their DC where he oversaw arguably the worst defense in NFL history. He was fired after one season. The New Orleans Saints have fired defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo after one season -- a record-setting year in the wrong way. New Orleans ranked last in the NFL in total defense and run defense, yielding the most yards (7,042) ever in a single season. After a few years as an assistant and position coach with the Ravens, Spags returned to the Giants in 2015. Two of his three defenses, including the one that led to his departure for a second time, were terrible, finishing close to dead last in both yards and points allowed. In KC, his defenses haven't been particularly good in regular seasons up until this year. He's been 15th, 16th, 22nd, 14th and 7th in DVOA. We have seen an uptick in KC's defensive performance most years in the playoffs, but certainly not always. This year was the clear exception (KC's defense was great.) But from 2019-2022, Spags' defenses allowed: 31, 24, 20, 17, 24, 31, 27, 36, 21, 20, 20, 35 pts in 12 playoff games. That's an average of 25.5 points per game allowed in the playoffs. If KC's offense had performed less-than-amazing, or had the Chiefs lost playoff games where the offense scored 30-plus—ie the 13 seconds game, or the Eagles Super Bowl—the narrative surrounding Spags would be much different. McDermott's defenses have given up 23.4 points per playoff game in his tenure by comparison (less than 20 pts vs non Chiefs opponents.) McDermott's defenses on the whole have far outperformed Spags' defenses in the regular season, and they've been very close during the playoffs (edge would go to McDermott statistically.)

Spags was head coach of the Rams that year.

Have already gone through this in another thread. Against non Chiefs teams (2019 thru 2023), Buffalo's defense gives up an average of 19.7 points and 5.1 yards per play in the playoffs. That's exactly on par with their regular season performance during the same years (2019 thru 2023), where they allowed 19.2 points and 5.14 yards per play. Buffalo has faced some very non-scary offenses in the playoffs, but on the whole, every offense they've faced has at least been average to above average. Their overall degree of difficulty in terms of playoff offenses faced has almost certainly been harder than what they typically face in a regular season. #17 Texans offense (2019) #10 Colts offense (2020) #11 Ravens offense (2020) #2 Chiefs offense (2020) #10 Patriots offense (2021) #3 Chiefs offense (2021) #6 Dolphins* offense (2022) #4 Bengals offense (2022) #15 Steelers offense (2023) #8 Chiefs offense (2023) *Miami started Skylar Thompson at QB and had just 3.3 yards per play, but Buffalo turned it over three times and allowed a defensive TD. It rates out as a good defensive performance, but came against what was likely a slightly below league avg offense given the QB switch rather than the 6th-rated offense. Overall, Buffalo's defense played well enough for them to beat the Ravens, Patriots, Dolphins and Steelers. They were above average vs the Texans and lost and they were below average vs the Colts and won. In the end, they won five playoff games against these six teams. Buffalo's real defensive struggles have come against probably the four best offenses they've faced: KC, KC, Cincinnati, KC. Similar to this year (lost Milano, Bernard for playoffs), the worst of Buffalo's injuries in past years have also been on defense. They played last year without Von Miller and Micah Hyde vs the Bengals. They were without Tre White the year before in the loss to the Chiefs.

Because I was curious. Here's another McDermott stat to add additional context... Since 2018, Buffalo's takeaways: 2023: 30 (3rd) 2022: 27 (5th) 2021: 30 (3rd) 2020: 26 (3rd) 2019: 23 (10th) 2018: 27 (8th) In the six year span, the Bills are cumulatively the #1 defense in the league at takeaways. The offense, meanwhile, has been better than league average (barely) at giveaways only twice in six years, and has finished 21st, 25th, 30th and 31st. If you would like me to provide additional context, we can try to figure out how many times McDermott's defenses have had to start possessions in their own territory following Buffalo's 150 giveaways—an average of 25 per season—which is among the worst in the league in that span.

What stats are out of context?

Buffalo's defensive ranks since 2018... Points allowed: 2018 - 18th 2019 - 2nd 2020 - 16th 2021: 1st 2022: 2nd 2023: 4th Defensive DVOA: 2018 - 2nd 2019 - 6th 2020 - 11th 2021 - 1st 2022 - 2nd 2023 - 12th In points, McDermott's D has outperformed the offense four times, tied once, and was worse once (2020). In DVOA, McDermott's D has outperformed the offense three times, tied once, and was worse twice (2020, 2023). Overall, if you take the six seasons cumulatively over the entire league, no defense in the NFL has finished better than the Bills in defensive DVOA. Obviously, McDermott's playoff failures vs the Chiefs are well documented, but he would have for sure held his own with a league-average QB.

One of the crazier things is how the Chiefs managed to keep it secret. Veach was drooling over the guy for multiple years. Andy Reid on Veach's love affair with Mahomes: Veach couldn’t emphasize enough that Mahomes was “special,” perhaps even transformational. “Right from the get-go — for about a year and a half,” Reid said. “When Brett gets something like that, he’s going to let you know.” Alex Smith knew the Chiefs liked him more than two years before the 2017 draft: "Patrick had just finished his freshman year at Texas Tech, and I can remember Brett Veach coming in - he wasn't the GM at the time, but he is now - he was hugely responsible for the Chiefs ultimately taking Patrick and moving up. He was in love with Patrick after his freshman year. I remember him coming in, we had a great relationship, he would come into the QB room and say, 'You guys gotta see this guy. Yada, yada.' Because we would always talk ball. Veach had his eyes on him for a long time." The Chiefs were in contact with his reps every day for 3 months before the draft: Chris Cabott, who co-represents Mahomes with Leigh Steinberg and told Terez Paylor of Yahoo Sports that “for like 94 straight days” before the draft, they had communicated with Veach in “some way, shape or form.” *** At minimum, Alex Smith could have leaked to someone that the Chiefs wanted to draft his replacement. Instead, KC took Mahomes and Smith was traded to Washington a year later.

This is a recap of what is being referenced: According to a report in the newly-founded NFL newsletter Go Long with Tyler Dunne (subscribe), the team’s co-owner wanted to draft Mahomes with the No. 10 overall pick at the 2017 NFL Draft. Former team executives Doug Whaley and Jim Monos both backed that Pegula mentioned multiple times prior to the draft that he was very impressed with the Texas Tech QB. Naturally it’s important to preface that the Bills are currently 7-3 and in the driver’s seat to win the AFC East with their 2018 first-round pick and starting quarterback Josh Allen. Everyone at One Bills Drive is happy with the way things currently sit. But in the report, Whaley even reportedly told Pegula “This is your team,” prior to the 2017 draft, in an attempt to explain that he has the final say because it was widely-known by the Bills’ scouting staff that the owner loved what Mahomes could do. However, it doesn’t take much more than an educated guess to see what happened in the end. Just prior to the 2017 draft, Sean McDermott was hired as head coach. He clearly did not want Mahomes at the No. 10 overall pick, so the Bills traded back with the Chiefs, took Tre’Davious White there, and eventually landed Allen with extra first-round picks via the Chiefs deal. We all already knew McDermott was pulling the strings at the year’s draft because hours after it, the front office was cleaned out, including Whaley and Monos. A week-plus later, Brandon Beane was hired as general manager. Again, we all lived happily ever after (or happier than a 17-year playoff drought). But in an added twist, in 2017, the Bills still had hoped Mahomes would be there in a trade back to pick No. 27. Despite McDermott’s relationship with Chiefs head coach Andy Reid (their relationship was probably helpful in pre-draft trade discussions), the Bills were not sure what QB that Reid & Co. coveted with the No. 10 pick. Could it be Deshaun Watson (who went No. 12)? Nope, it was Mahomes, and now here we are.

In retrospect, KC probably would have liked to try tightening the screws a bit earlier. But they largely did what they wanted, forcing seven 3rd-and-longs (and a pair of 4th downs, excluding the fake punt attempt). Buffalo was very good on 1st down in the first half. They gained 3 or more yards on their first 11 1st-and-10s and averaged 5.44 yards on first down overall in the opening half. In 19 1st-and-10s, they had only two plays that gained 0 or negative yards; 12 of 19 plays gained at least 4 yards (and another was a 2-yard touchdown.) 1st half, yards gained on 1st down: 3, 3, 6, 10, 4, 6, 14, 9, 6, 8, 7, 2, 2, 8, -1, 6, 0, 5, 2 (TD) = 5.44 yards avg In the 2nd half, they had 1 yard or less on six of their 13 1st-and-10s. 2nd half, yard gained on 1st down: 3, 7, 1, 8, 3, -2, 8, -4, 0, 8, 0, 6, 1 = 3 yards avg Overall, everything was just a little bit harder for the Bills after halftime. Gaining 3 yards or less on 8 of their 1st-and-10s (including a pair of negative plays) made them far more predictable on the ensuing downs. But even then, they largely found a way to recover. They completed a TD pass to Shakir on 3rd-and-13, converted a 4th-down to stay alive on the final drive, etc.

The Chiefs played a lot more man coverage vs the 49ers after Brock Purdy was tearing apart their zone through 1.5 quarters. The Chiefs-Bills playoff game, Buffalo's halves weren't terribly different. Buffalo had only four drives in each half. So it was a very low possession game. KC's defense got off the field once more in the 2nd half than first half and made the Bills work a little harder on offense, especially on the final drive. Chris Jones usually is at his absolute best when it matters most. If Buffalo didn't extend the drive on the first possession after facing 3rd-and-17, the halves would have been closer on a per-play basis, not on the actual scoreboard. Buffalo 1st half: 14 plays, 60 yards 11 plays, 75 yards 5 plays, 15 yards 12 plays, 75 yards Buffalo 2nd half: 15 plays, 75 yards 3 plays, 5 yards 3 plays, -2 yards 16 plays, 54 yards

The '07 Pats and who else?

In the draft, you're getting a guy that plays on a rookie contract. Being wrong in the draft - particularly mid to late round picks - isn't nearly as crippling as being wrong on a big-name free agent who doesn't give you what you wanted.

The Bills would be better served hyper focusing on the draft. Free agency is a poison pill if trying to land a big name guy. You're competing against other teams trying to fill the same positional need, and to get the player you desire, that almost always means overpaying (that will be especially true this year with added cap space.) Most important, you're overpaying for a player who performed well in someone else's system. How they'll translate to your system, or what made them successful in the prior system, is often highly unpredictable.