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McDermott guaranteed KC's inevitable demise earlier this year. A Bills-Chiefs game in Arrowhead seems unlikely at this point, but rest assured this clip will be played on the jumbotron pre kickoff if they do happen to meet.

Way too many people forget how bad the 2020 AFC championship game was. The Bills went: FG Punt TD (1 play, 3 yard drive after Chiefs muffed punt) Punt Punt FG FG Interception After the INT, the Chiefs drove down the field to score, making the game 38-15. The Bills finally scored another TD with 4:08 left in the 4th quarter. In other words, the Bills went 47 minutes between TDs, and the offense failed to put together a real TD drive until the game was already out of reach. Allen's performance in the 13 seconds game was a masterclass. The playoff games the last few years were fine but not exactly legendary.

Do you really think Andy/Chiefs are unloading the clip in regular season games? You’re getting their absolute best in the playoffs - max effort, best plays, best everything. Until this year, when the Chiefs started 0-2 and were desperate for wins, Mahomes rarely scrambles in regular season to the degree he does in the playoffs. They routinely mail it in against lesser teams in regular season and do just enough to get by against average to good teams. Don’t get me wrong, there is clear evidence that the Chiefs take it to another level when the opponent justifies it, even in the regular season. And I think the Chiefs badly want to beat the Bills this week, and will use up some of their best stuff in pursuit of that goal. But it’s still not the playoffs, where they’ve proven over and over, if they can block you, they will beat you.

Let me know when you stumble into data for "penalties that aren't called" and will be happy to include it in the analysis. One thing I've learned through the years, the fans watching at home are far more biased than the refs could ever be; and if given an exam on the NFL rules/officiating handbook, I'd guess 95% of fans would fail the test as most have zero clue about officiating mechanics, what to look for, what constitutes a penalty, etc. There are bad calls made in every sport, on every level. Umpires calling ball/strikes, with the best view in the house, while literally standing stationary, with the ball directly in front of them, miss 1 call per inning. If you seriously think the NFL would cheat for the Chiefs, you’re basically saying the league would risk: wire fraud, honest-services fraud, the sports bribery act, breach-of-contract suits from 31 other owners, class-action fraud claims from fans and bettors, and federal investigations from the FTC or DOJ, all to help one team win? And that the other 31 billion-dollar owners would just sit quietly and let it happen? Wouldn't the NFL, at least on occasion, want to rig something for the Cowboys, Jets, or Giants? At the very least, why not cheat just enough to help the Giants or Jets get above .500 and in the playoff mix for the first time in a decade? Perhaps some love for the Vegas-based Raiders? How about rewarding the Chargers for moving to LA and helping finance SoFi?

Some notes on officiating/Cheffers.... Carl Cheffers' crew has a league-high 20.7 flags thrown per game, and a league-high 17.3 accepted penalties per game (nfl average is 14). Cheffers already officiated a Chiefs game earlier this year in Brazil when they played the Chargers. KC had 10 penalties for 71 yards; LAC had 6 penalties for 49 yards. Chiefs fans believe he missed a holding call on this critical TD late (below), which adds to their belief that Cheffers hates the Chiefs due to his involvement in other past controversial games. I don't buy into the ref bias BS. They have no incentive to get calls wrong that could hurt their standing for playoff or Super Bowl assignments. I do however believe that a couple of crews have proven to be more (or less) flag happy than others. Bill Vinovich is one that makes the list. His crew has thrown the fewest flags over the sample and has had the least or second least amount of penalties seven straight years from 2016-2022, and typically is never at the top. Cheffers' crew certainly makes the list, but falls into the flag happy category. In data that goes back to 2009, Cheffers' crew has ranked (out of 17 crews) top 5 in flags thrown nine times, and has led the league four times. That being said, his crew threw the fewest flags in 2024, and the second fewest in 2023, one of only five times he's finished in the bottom half of flags thrown. It goes to show you that single-year samples can still be pretty noisy, as most ref crews have no defined pattern. Most years, there's a 3-4 flag per game difference between the most flag happy crew, and the least flag happy crew, and some years it's in the 2s. Cheffers penalty rank by year: 2025 - 1st (most flags thrown) 2024 - 17th (fewest flags thrown) 2023 - 16th 2022 - 1st 2021 - 1st 2020 - 3rd 2019 - 11th 2018 - 5th 2017 - 2nd 2016 - 11th 2015 - 2nd 2014 - 1st 2013 - 7th 2012 - 6th 2011 - 7th 2010 - 5th 2009 - 12th Chiefs vs Bills penalties (2025): This year, the Chiefs are 4th worst in the NFL in net penalties at -12 and are 6th worst in net penalty yards; the Bills are 5th worst (-11) in net penalties, and 7th worst in net penalty yards. In terms of subjective defensive penalties, the Chiefs rank 23rd (+16.5 EPA), while the Bills are the third-biggest beneficiary (+37 EPA) behind NYG and Dallas. The ranks are the same when measuring WPA - KC 23rd, Buffalo 3rd. Buffalo also has the edge over KC in QB penalties drawn, 11-9, despite KC playing one more game than the Bills so far. Prior years: 2024: Chiefs (5th best, +19 net penalties); Bills (6th best, +14 net penalties) 2023: Chiefs (7th worst, -12 net penalties); Bills (13th worst, -6 net penalties) 2022: Chiefs (3rd best, +21 net penalties); Bills (12th worst, -4 net penalties) 2021: Chiefs (11th best, +10 net penalties); Bills 13th worst, -11 net penalties) 2020: Chiefs (4th worst, -18 net penalties); Bills (5th worst, -11 net penalties) 2019: Chiefs (9th best, +12 net penalties); Bills (4th worst, -26 net penalties) 2018: Chiefs (2nd worst, -24 net penalties); Bills (4th worst, -17 net penalties) 2017: Chiefs (11th worst, -11 net penalties); Bills (17th worst, -1 net penalties) 2016: Chiefs (15th best, -2 net penalties); Bills (13th worst, -6 net penalties) 2015: Chiefs (13th best, +6 net penalties); Bills (3rd worst, -30 net penalties) 2014: Chiefs (6th best, +19 net penalties); Bills (4th worst, -20 net penalties) 2013: Chiefs (11th best, +13 net penalties); Bills (16th best, -2 net penalties) Chiefs in Andy/Mahomes era (2018-2025): -4 net penalties Chiefs Andy/Alex Smith era (2013-2017): +25 net penalties Bills in McDermott era (2017-2025): -72 net penalties Bills in Marrone/Ryan eras (2013-2016): -58 net penalties QBs/Roughing the Passer (2018-2025): Allen 0.932 per 100 attempts (5th highest of 74 QBs) Mahomes 0.633 per 100 attempts (29th)

chiefs are signing pennel. im sure the bengals released him at his request.

i could not disagree more with this. there's pretty clear evidence that andy saves "the good plays" for bigger matchups. last year, in weeks leading up to bills game, the chiefs looked borderline disinterested, play calling was not inventive, and the offense looked sluggish. against the bills, the chiefs came out with clear intent to target worthy a lot (pretty much the first time all year) and dialed up some gems for him in the first half. one first-half scoring drive was almost entirely worthy (through the air and on the ground.) in the end, kc's offense stalled out (largely due to terrible OL play) but they gave max effort and simply got beat. these teams know each other so well at this point, elite chess match both ways.

No Pacheco is a real problem for the Chiefs. Kareem has been short yardage only with very limited explosiveness. Kareem's snap share has been about 30% the last month plus. Brashard Smith, the rookie, is not trusted as a pass protector yet.

in fairness, no rice and no worthy, sort of a different offense without both.

Smith isn't good enough in pass protection to be trusted for a larger work load currently.

I will be very surprised if Pacheco plays vs Bills on Sunday. He avoided the ACL tear, but he almost surely has a sprained MCL. I'll predict he misses 3-4 weeks.

the bills pass rush can get to mahomes if kc plays like they did the first half pass protection wise. it was....not good.

if you think rice wasn't trying to get the ball to the ref, not sure what to tell you lol

the chiefs are highly likely going to have to finish 11-6 to make the playoffs because they're currently in the back seat vs nearly the entire afc if they finish 10-7. assuming a win vs washington tonight, they'll be 5-3 entering their bye week, with this remaining schedule: Chiefs -1 at Bills (53% chance of win) Chiefs -1 at Broncos (53%) Chiefs -3.5 vs Colts (60%) Chiefs -4.5 at Cowboys (63%) Chiefs -6.5 vs Texans (68%) Chiefs -5 vs Chargers (64%) Chiefs -14 at Titans (85%) Chiefs -4.5 vs Broncos (63%) Chiefs -8.5 at Raiders (73%) that equates to 5.82 expected wins on top of the 5 they'd have after winning tonight. so 10.82 expected wins. 11 wins, they're in. 10 wins, they're very likely out. the chargers and broncos have easier schedules than the chiefs by comparison and both have tiebreakers over KC. the bills are a virtual playoff lock. the patriots could lose 5 of their final 9 games and would make the playoffs 86% of the time (per NYT bot). the colts are already at 7 wins. the afc north will likely produce just one playoff team. the jaguars are the shakiest of the playoff contenders but could be 5-3 with a win vs raiders and still get to play the titans twice as well as the jets (and have beaten KC head to head). the bills could deliver a serious blow to kc's playoff chances. Tom Brady/Patriots beat the Chiefs in the 2018 regular season and again in the AFC title game that same year. Joe Burrow/Bengals beat the Chiefs in the 2021 regular season and again in the AFC title game that same year.

yes, i’m sure goodell is willing to risk sports bribery indictments, wire-fraud charges, conspiracy counts, racketeering investigations and class-action lawsuits from every fan, gambler, and broadcast partner in america, all so that the league’s 32 billioniare owners can secretly agree to tilt a few holding calls in favor of the kansas city chiefs, so they can go to an afc title game or beyond for an eighth straight time. sounds totally plausible. maybe eventually they'll get really creative and make the Jets, Giants or Cowboys relevant for the first time in a decade too.

unlike previous years, the chiefs will enter the playoffs having expended a lot of energy. chargers in brazil, eagles, ravens (when they were good), lions, at giants SNF, at jaguars MNF, still have games left vs commanders MNF, bills, colts, at cowboys (thanksgiving), broncos (twice), chargers. the only remaining true layups are at titans and at raiders in the finale.

The Bills are: a) the current Super Bowl favorite at 5.5-to-1 b) the current AFC East division favorite at -300 (risk $3 to win $1) c) the team with the best odds of making the playoffs in the entire league at -2000 (risk $20 to win $1) d) the team with the 2nd best odds, behind only Tampa Bay, of having the most wins in the entire league (+550) e) the team with the highest updated regular season win total at 11.5 (over -165) f) the team with a QB with the third-highest MVP odds (risk $1 to win $3) g) the team the 12th easiest remaining schedule in the league so far Let's get back to reality.

Expect any Bills starters in the finale? Will Josh get a series?

brutal for chargers/slater.

What are we thinking for playing time vs the Giants? Will Josh play a series? Will starters play?

maybe if he had drafted mcconkey instead of coleman.

the full updated statement from worthy attorney (different from the first statement w/ more details):

As Rashee Rice will soon find out, Worthy committed this crime in the worst state of the 50 states. In New York, this would be a slap on the wrist Class A midsemeanor. In Texas, it's a third-degree felony. Also, the family member can't simply drop charges, and especially not if it's a woman. It will be up to the state. He has a very long offseason ahead and I'd say a certain suspension. The Chiefs will be without Worthy and Rice week 1, in all likelihood. Hollywood is unsigned. Smith-Schuster is unsigned. Justin Watson is unsigned. Mecole Hardman is unsigned. That means the Chiefs Week 1 offense, as it stands currently, could consist of: QB - Mahomes Left tackle - Empty Hole Left guard - Empty hole (All Pro Thuney out, likely 2nd year draft bust steps in) Center - Creed Humphrey (elite) Right guard - Trey Smith (very good) Right Tackle - Jawaan Taylor (terrible) RB - Isaiah Pacheco (has fallen off a cliff, always injured) WR - Skyy Moore (draft bust, sat out most of 2024) WR - Niko Remigio (special teams player) WR - Justyn Ross (practice squad) WR - Tyquan Thornton (who?) TE - Travis Kelce (washed)

Out of all the Chiefs players, he would have been the last person I thought capable of doing this. Seemed like the nicest guy. Which in fairness, in a locker room consisting of Kareem Hunt and Rashee Rice, and Charles Omenihu, he still might be, at least comparatively speaking.