If the Bills win, there will be 6 teams with a 7-6 record after today.
For each of the 6 teams to end up at 9-8 or worse, they would need to win 2 out of their last 4 games via any combination.
Each of these scenarios has a 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/16 chance of occurring.
Since there are 6 teams, you would multiply this probability by 6 to account for all 6 teams having the same chance of ending up at 9-8 or worse:
6 * (1/16) = 6/16 (or 3/8).
So, there is a 3/8 or 37.5% chance that at least one team out of the 6 will end up at 9-8 or worse, which would potentially open up a playoff spot for a 9-8 team.
For simplicity sake. we can multiply them together to find the probability that all 6 teams end up at 9-8 or worse:
(3/8) * (3/8) * (3/8) * (3/8) * (3/8) * (3/8) = (3/8)^6 ≈ 0.00390625
So, there is approximately a 0.39% chance that all 6 teams end up at 9-8 or worse, assuming they each have a 37.5% chance of winning 2 out of their last 4 games.
But of course we only need 2 teams to get to 9-8 and the remaining teams to lose more than 8.
Scenario 1) 2 teams lose 8 games and 4 lose more than 8.
Scenario 2) 4 teams lose 8 games, and 2 teams lose more than 8 games.
15 * (3/8)^2 * (5/8)^4 ≈ 0.1398
So, there is approximately a 13.98% chance that 2 out of the 6 teams lose 8 games, and the remaining 4 teams lose more than 8 games,
That doesn’t even take into consideration the rams who currently have 7 losses and could lose just 1 more. Or tiebreakers or common games.
Just saying, the probability is low.