SaulGoodman

150+ voted Allen as the best QB in the NFL in the “If all things were equal” thread.

If it’s about results, why do so many here rate Allen higher than Mahomes?

I’ve always thought Elway’s a little overrated, but it could be because my earliest memories are of his later years. I haven’t seen the early part of his career other than YouTube clips. To me he’s a guy who was always a bit more myth and legend than reality. He was labeled the greatest prospect ever, so they bent over backwards to justify that narrative. I think people got sucked up in it, and then his legend grew as he developed a reputation for late comebacks. What they never mention is that Denver was often forced to come back because Elway played poorly the first three quarters. Or that his era of AFC dominance happened during an era in which the AFC was very weak and a team quarterbacked by Bernie Kosar was Denver’s top competition. Elway’s numbers were never elite either, even compared to peers at the time, and he had a ton of turnovers. Elway might have been as talented as any QB to ever live, but his production didn’t live up to his talent.

I'm not even necessarily saying you're wrong--I'm genuinely curious for insight as to why people think this. It seems to be a pretty strongly-held belief by most here. Obviously I think Reid is the better coach, and he's clearly accomplished more. But I don't think he's cracked some sort of code. What is he doing on a game to game basis that creates such an advantage for his QB? What makes him vastly superior to McD (a fine coach in his own right) overall? It obviously can't be the decisions at the end of the 13 seconds game, because Reid's made similar blunders 100 times in his career. I get that McD isn't very offensively adept, but he's surrounded himself with people who are.

Sure. And when you rank rosters, are you factoring in that Allen’s defense was ranked #1 in ‘21, or are you judging them based on one game vs an offense that averaged 36 ppg over the second half of the season? In general, I break it down as follows: Chiefs had a big edge in offensive talent Mahomes’ first two years, an edge (but smaller) the next two years, and the last two years I think Buffalo’s had more offensive talent. Allen’s had the better defense in 5 of 6 years, and considerably better in most seasons. Both QBs have “ifs.” If KC’s OL stays somewhat healthy in 2020, Mahomes has a good shot at another ring, on a field where they had already won convincingly. If KC had something resembling a defense in 2018, Ford’s alignment doesn’t matter and Mahomes has another SB appearance. And if not for a Bengal fingertip on a nice deep throw to Tyreek Hill, KC’s probably facing the Rams in the SB that year as well. He’s a few plays away from 6 SB appearances in 6 years. You can’t be much better than Mahomes has been in the playoffs. Take out a few errant throws across 18 games, and the dysfunctional 2nd half vs Cincinnati, and he’s been damn near flawless. If Allen played for Reid in KC, with the same exact accomplishments and numbers as Mahomes, do you really think you or any other Bills fan would be giving the credit to Reid? Remember that, in this scenario, Reid was fired by another franchise just 5 years before drafting Allen. I’m not sure that most think there’s a big gap. I don’t even think that. I think the differences are somewhat subtle. But I do think they’re there. All opinions are valid, of course. A lot of counter arguments go ignored though, and there are some questions I’m genuinely curious about. Such as: what is it specifically about Reid that gives Mahomes such a big advantage? Obviously Reid’s a better offensive mind, but McD is obviously the better defensive mind. The only specific criticism I ever seem to see of McD is in regard to his late decisions in the 13 seconds game. But you can make a list a mile long of poor clock management or in-game decisions by Reid. People glorify Reid’s goal line plays, especially “Corndog,” which turned out to be a play stolen from the Bills’ allegedly unimaginative staff. He went to the playoffs several times with Alex Smith, but McD went to the playoffs with Tyrod Taylor and a mediocre roster. What is it that makes Reid leagues above McD overall?

Allen had to do more early in his career, sure. I doubt many KC fans agree he's had to do a lot more in recent years. People that study rosters for a living, including PFF, have ranked Buffalo's rosters among the best in the league over the last 4 or so years. I'd agree with them. Few outside of here would claim that Mahomes' defense has consistently been good in the playoffs. He needed 38 pts to win a SB. His D allowed 31 in another SB. He lost an AFC title game despite scoring 31 vs a great Belichick D at home. In '19, his teammates put him in a 24-0 hole and the defense allowed 31...KC still won by 20. In the 13 seconds game, the D allowed 36 in regulation, DBs were falling down and leaving players wide open repeatedly, the running game did zilch and Butker missed two kicks. Other than Tyreek's YAC on the long TD play, he had little help from his teammates that night. In the '22 AFCC, he was working with practice squad WRs while hobbling on one leg. Last year he had crappy tackles and WRs. Most years he has little to no running game. The only times that Allen's defense truly failed were in the games vs KC. And we have a large enough sample at this point to say that few, if any, defenses are going to shut down a healthyish Mahomes/Reid offense in the playoffs. Allen's defenses have been fine outside of the KC games.

Yes, they went 12-4 with Alex Smith one time, but it took some luck to get there and they were bounced in their first playoff game at home. Harbaugh went 13-3 with Alex Smith. Is he even better than Andy Reid? And McD made the playoffs with Tyrod Taylor and a mediocre roster, in a division with Tom Brady. He must be the greatest of all.

No. There was an entire paragraph after that. And where’s the proof of the opposite?

Did Patriots fans retire from message board debates when their team started winning? That's not what fans do. The way I see a particular play or circumstance isn't going to change based on the number of wins my team accumulates. The only things that don't sit right are false narratives or highly subjective opinions tossed around as facts. Such as, in your last post, when you said that Allen is "just more exciting to watch." Not only is it not a fact, but it's not even an opinion I see that often. Mahomes is probably known more for exciting plays (improvisation, unorthodox throws, big conversions in big moments) than anything else. He just hasn't thrown a ton of deep bombs the last two years, for obvious reasons. It's also not a fact that Allen has been forced to carry his team more than Mahomes. A couple years ago, KC eeked out a 3 pt comeback win in OT vs a mediocre Titans team. Mahomes accounted for all but 7 of their 509 yds gained. That's carrying a team. In his first NFL start as a rookie, he went on the road and carried 2nd and 3rd stringers to a win. Even after being taken out of the game for a quarter and seeing the lead disappear. In '21, Mahomes had one of the best games of his career with Kelce out and Hill only playing a few snaps, vs a good Pitt defense. His top receivers were Byron Pringle, Derrick Gore, Darrel Williams and Hardman. All throughout college he carried bums that haven't been heard from since to big offensive stats and FBS records. A year ago, he carried a WR corps of Skyy Moore, Justin Watson, MVS and Marcus Kemp (practice squad) in the AFC Championship, while hobbled by a high ankle sprain. KC's highest rusher in that game (by far) had 26 yds. And, of course, he just carried maybe the worst WR corps (and one of the weakest pairs of tackles) to a SB win, despite one of the most difficult paths ever. Where does this idea come from that he can't or hasn't carried teams?

So…Allen is a better postseason QB because he has allegedly better postseason stats? Which equates to a few stats that are better by the smallest of margins (from a much smaller sample of games). When the sample size is this small, strength of competition is a big factor. The deeper you go into the postseason, usually the stronger the defenses you face. Allen didn’t have to play against this year’s Baltimore D or SF’s great defenses, didn’t have to face an elite Tampa pass rush with a 3rd string OL, etc. With the difference in sample and competition faced, a couple slightly better stats aren’t meaningful. Especially when he’s well behind in some important stats (including per game). Another reason it’s not meaningful is that Mahomes has a big edge in overall stats throughout their six years as starters.

First of all, who cares if Hardman’s goal-line fumble was allegedly flukey? It happened, and it was a big, big help to your hero. If that ball crosses the goal line, game over. Biggest play of the game by either team. And yes, Allen’s receivers dropped a catchable pass or two. It happens. It’s football. If Mahomes’ receivers hadn’t led the league in drops, that game wouldn’t have even taken place in Buffalo.

KC needed 38 pts to win a SB and 42 to win the 13 seconds game. They gave up 37 vs NE at home, 31 vs Tampa in the SB, 31 vs Houston in the '19 divisional, and the same point total vs Cincy that Buffalo allowed the following year.

Which narratives don't work? You didn't even respond to my longest post. Whether or not KC fans were surprised/happy/whatever that MVS came through with a few catches is irrelevant. There were no catches in that game by any KC WR that were out of the ordinary for an NFL WR. "Spectacular for MVS" doesn't equate to spectacular. If any of KC's receptions had been dropped, fans would have been pissed. The catch that Shakir made in the endzone was easily the most spectacular catch of the day.

So when you said the WRs were making spectacular catches, what you meant was that a player who was terrible all year actually held onto the ball a couple times? Hell, I could've tipped you off that there weren't going to be nearly as many focus drops in the playoffs. Does this mean that every catch that Kadarious Toney makes in the future is going to be spectacular?

Based on? The Bills were a playoff team with Tyrod Taylor and a far worse roster. Why couldn’t McD do it with this team? KC doesn’t make the playoffs last year without Mahomes. Hell, they flirted with missing the postseason with him. If they had Tyrod Taylor, they’d have missed the postseason and definitely wouldn’t have sniffed a Super Bowl.

Name one spectacular catch. By far the most spectacular catch in that game was by a Bills WR. Also, there's more to playing WR than catching the ball, you know. At no point in the season did KC have more than one WR that defenses had to respect.

Many now agree that Reid is the best coach in the league. Before Mahomes, no one thought that. And 5 years before Mahomes came along, Reid was fired by Philly. Correct me if I'm wrong, but you don't fire a guy who is considered the best coach in the league. As for McD, the only ranking I've seen recently had him in the top 10. It's an opinion that few have him ranked highly, and I think it's an inaccurate one. He might not be considered top tier, but higher than most. It's interesting that no one ever seems to break down in specific terms what makes Reid such a massive advantage vs McD. Just a lot of talk about a few late game decisions. You might be aware, but Reid's had a reputation for poor in-game decisions himself. In fact, he's probably made many more game management blunders in his coaching career than McD. Who said anything was tough to deal with?

KC's offense was the butt of jokes all year and there was a season-long narrative that Mahomes didn't have enough offensive help to go deep in the playoffs, even with a dramatically improved defense. The tackles played poorly, WRs dropped or fumbled every other ball, the running game was okay but not exceptional, and Kelce's lost a step. Rice developed into a pretty reliable WR eventually, but he wasn't a legit #1. It's crazy to argue that Allen had less offensive talent around him last year. His WRs were better, tackles were better, running game was better, and he had two good TEs, including a budding star. If someone had told you before the divisional round that KC's offensive talent (minus Mahomes) was better than Buffalo's, you'd have laughed in their face. This only became a narrative after that game.

Kills me that people think Mahomes has had everything one could want. To date, he hasn't had one "loaded," balanced roster. Horrible WR play last year, weak tackle play the last two years, depleted/awful OL in 2020, usually a weak running game, and weak/average defense almost every year to date. Also kills me that people think Allen's had poor rosters in recent years. They've been among the best by pretty much any measure since 2020 or so.

These teams have had similar talent the last four years (I'd even give the Bills the edge in a few of those). I don't see any reason to think Allen would have accomplished the same or more. Especially if he had to deal with the same circumstances, such as the high ankle sprain, no WRs in the AFCC vs Cincy, a decimated OL in the 2020 playoffs, last year's drops/turnovers, and mediocre/poor defense most years. Bills fans believe that Allen's better because he has a hell of an arm, scored more TDs last year, and he's thrown more flashy bombs the past couple seasons. He might have the stronger arm, but he falls short in the mental aspect of the game. Mahomes' receivers were a joke last year. It was comical how often they screwed up. Allen's had better offensive talent the past two years, and better defenses every year but one. How has Mahomes' supporting cast been "that" much better? It's very debatable that it's been better at all the last few seasons.

It’s not that hard to add a few lbs with NFL training and resources. Even if he doesn’t, Desean Jackson was a twig. Would you have passed on him too?

On paper, the Bills have a weaker roster than last year and a much tougher schedule. They might get to double digit wins with a few breaks, but I think it makes the most sense to expect 7-9 wins.

Yep. I’m just not sure how they’ll ever win anything. 😆

Not sure that Reid’s a good comparison. He was consistently going deeper in the playoffs with much less talented QBs than Allen. Lost in the SB by 3 to the best Patriots team ever, thanks to three McNabb picks.

If the Bills had SB expectations this year, I doubt they trade with their nemesis and allow them to get their guy. I also don’t think they’d go to battle with this WR corps in an all-in year.