Bob in STL
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Posts posted by Bob in STL
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We'd all love to say, "See, I told ya so!", let JP be JP! But it seems to me that Jauron and Fairchild actually knew what they were doing by keeping the reigns on him for quite some time, and then only allowing him to open it up against these guys in this game. If they used that gameplan against the Colts, for instance, Losman would have been killed. Don't over-react, the OL still stinks. Perhaps they took a sizable step this week which will help with their confidence in themselves and each other but this was the game to do it, and they did it. Indy was not, regardless of the stats. Look at the time Losman had in the Indy game. He never would have gotten those balls off the Evans in the first place.
The team won the GB game by limiting the mistakes and hoping JP could come up with one big play to win. They did it and it turned out well. It may have been luck but that was clearly the gameplan and clearly it worked because of the win. Against Indy, a team everyone thought they would get blown out by, and should have, it worked again. It looked bad, it was frustrating to watch, but they kept the team in the game. That was a game they could have stolen at the end. It was, again, clearly the gameplan and it failed that time but almost worked. And again, if they used the Texans gameplan in the Indy game, I think we lose by 23.
So I think we have to give them some credit. I think PERHAPS they know what they're doing with JP. And I predict that they take a step back this week, and don't let him air it out, but this week the gameplan will be somewhere in between Indy's and the Texans. It's also probably better for JP in the long run to make him into a well rounded player like they have been doing.
Jauron and Co. are doing a very good job. The team is in the game just about every week. We have some major holes, especially on offense but we are managing to keep it close and be competitive.
We are definitey not an elite playoff team, but we are moving up from bottomfeeders toward the middle of the pack.
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Hope is not gone because of a loss.
I agree that this win could inspire them further and we could see more wins as the season goes on.
Of course, if we win 7 games there will be those who whine about the player we can't draft because of the wins. That will certainly happen.
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I don't rank it at all. It was a good road win. I don't know about it being JP's coming out either.
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I am very pleased ith the win. Props to JP, Evan, the coaching staff, etc.
I am concerned about the defense, especially in the first half. They were giving up yardage with almost no resistance. I am not a Cover 2 expert by any means ... it looked like the DL was getting pressure but the LBs and safeties were either over-persuing and out of postion, missing tackles, or being blocked.
Whitner and Simpson played like rookies today. Whitner missed severall tackles in run support and Simpson was late reading plays. The biggest disappointment is TKO. I am afraid that he is not ever going to get back to his great stature. He is completely invisible and accounted for 2 assists the whole game. He used to be a tackling machine and now two assists!
All of that said, i must give props to the Fewell and the defense for keeping the Texans off of the scorebaord.
Feels good to win!
Bob,
Great post. Very insightful. Keep 'em coming!
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I am very pleased ith the win. Props to JP, Evan, the coaching staff, etc.
I am concerned about the defense, especially in the first half. They were giving up yardage with almost no resistance. I am not a Cover 2 expert by any means ... it looked like the DL was getting pressure but the LBs and safeties were either over-persuing and out of postion, missing tackles, or being blocked.
Whitner and Simpson played like rookies today. Whitner missed severall tackles in run support and Simpson was late reading plays. The biggest disappointment is TKO. I am afraid that he is not ever going to get back to his great stature. He is completely invisible and accounted for 2 assists the whole game. He used to be a tackling machine and now two assists!
All of that said, i must give props to the Fewell and the defense for keeping the Texans off of the scorebaord.
Feels good to win!
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Really? I looked for him all game. He was blocked almost all of the time. He was getting killed on run plays. Yes ... he was in on the fumble and he came in late on another tackle ... so he was credited with 2 assists.
Will the real TKO please come back?
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I am very pleased ith the win. Props to JP, Evan, the coaching staff, etc.
I am concerned about the defense, especially in the first half. They were giving up yardage with almost no resistance. I am not a Cover 2 expert by any means ... it looked like the DL was getting pressure but the LBs and safeties were either over-persuing and out of postion, missing tackles, or being blocked.
Whitner and Simpson played like rookies today. Whitner missed severall tackles in run support and Simpson was late reading plays. The biggest disappointment is TKO. I am afraid that he is not ever going to get back to his great stature. He is completely invisible and accounted for 2 assists the whole game. He used to be a tackling machine and now two assists!
All of that said, i must give props to the Fewell and the defense for keeping the Texans off of the scorebaord.
Feels good to win!
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I am surprised to read this comment from you.
I grew up watching OJ and I supoorted him, even when it became obvious that his trial was a farce. I don't know what is in the book, is it some kind of confession?
Right now I am so sick of his antics that if he were taken down I would not mind at all.
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Excellent comment. when Willis comes back he should get his job but we should use A-train also. A-Train can catch out of the backfield and he is tough.
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I hope the people who were gleeful last Christmas Eve still have that feeling of euphoria.
Meanwhile, back in the real world, the New York Jets have the anchor of their O-line in D'Brick-the guy we would have drafted if we had lost at Cincinnati.
Have another eggnog, and keep that Cincy win euphoria alive!
Why stop at the Cinci game? Why not go back to every game in every year and figure out who we could have drafted?
I doubt you ever played competitve sports if you advocate losing on purpose to improve your draft position.
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I am getting tired of the idea that the coaching staff is either "holding back" Losman or waiting for he or his offensive line "to develop". That he should be given the season to show us something. That at some point the "light will come on". Classic Fan-think.
In another thread I surmised that JP's future is not the most important thing in Marv's world. It is entirely possible that what we are seeing is THE BILLS OFFENSIVE PLAN regardless of what might transpire in the next seven games. The timelines are out of sync for for JP, his O-Line, and especially the defense to arrive at the same time.
Think of Marv (who ran a Delaware Wing T in Kansas City) hiring Dick Jauron (who ran the Bears into the ground) who hired Steve Fairchild (who as a running backs coach put Travis Henry in the Pro Bowl). I will dig up the post in which Marv talks of his 41 rushing attempts per game Kansas City days as a means to improve his teams " mentality and toughness", if anyone needs it.
I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for a bad defense so that JP can be "turned loose" in the passing game -- we just saw two of those. What the Bills are running now just might be the offense that we will be seeing for the next couple of years as Marv shapes the personnel in ways that fans haven't even imagined.
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Levy is the Genral Manager. Not the head coach. Not the offensive coordinator. Not the QB coach. He does not call the plays, ever.
Please stop referencing what Marv did in KC back in the 70's as if it were relavant to anything that happens today.
Get a grip.
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First off, the sack meant little because the Bills were still in FG range when Lindell made his kick and missed, and in reality the Colts would have marched-down the field, as they DID, and scored the winning FG. But WRT the topic of this thread, you can't blame JP for taking that sack when he had NO chance, just like Brady didn't. That's my point.
I think the sack was huge and turned a routine kick into a more difficult kick.
As you pointed out, I am not blaming JP, he had no chance. I just did not like the call. Before the play I said to my friend, "I just hope they don't do anything stupid, just run the ball". I guess I am shell shocked by this offense. I have seen enough of this offense to know we have to minimize the bad.
As for whether our defense would have held them? You never know. Conventional wisdom says that Manning takes them on a scoring drive. I would have loved the opportunity to see it.
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No. I just think that Brady has more than proven himself in crucial situations. Given his track record how can you blame the Pats for putting the game in his hands.
Can the same be said for JP?
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right on, here's my earlier post on that play:
in the end jauron abandoned a game plan that had gotten bills into a potential late 4th quarter lead by calling pass on 3rd and 5 from the 20. the one thing they couldnt do in that situation is take a sack and made the go ahead field goal longer. the tackles had been getting lit up on passing plays all day and JP couldn't sense a pass rush with the most sophisticated GPS navigation system. just like clockwork tackle gets beat off the ball, jp has no clue and gets sacked and lindell misses 41 yard field goal. i honestly think if the field goal would have been 35 that lindell makes it. the colts were only able to get 17 points through more than 3 & 1/2 quarters and the best option was to make sure you put the onus on them to score on you. bills didn't need a TD ... they needed FG and going for a TD by calling pass wasn't worth the risk.
Well, if the Bills had a decent, NFL caliber, offense I would say you go for the TD and the 2 points. Then Manning needs a TD and a extra point to tie you.
Given the state of our offense, running the ball with A-Train was the best play. He ripped off 3 good runs before they stuffed him on first down. Why not got to the well again?
Oh well, that is why I am at home watching I guess.
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It took to until 1 hour before kick-off to get the guts for this one. But I feel an upset.
Yes, Indy is the more talented and disciplined team but they are not going to run the table this years so let it be the Bills to provide the upset of the week (or yera for that matter).
This can only happen if we can execute this recipe (Stolen from Parcells/Bellichek in SB XXV):
1. run the ball and play ball control
2. Convert 3rd downs
3. no turnovers
4. Tackle sure and hard, make their recievers pay
5. Bigs plays on special teams - the Colts are weak on kick coverages
6. Get lucky. Yes, get some major breaks.
If we cannot do 1 thru 3 above then Manning will pick us apart as usual in the RCA Dome.
Missing that late FG was not in the script but I would say the biggest problem was the third down offense, especially in the red zone. I don't think there is a worse red-zone team in the league.
Close but no cigar this week.
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I think this was the play of the game. My thoughts on it are:
1. I did not like the call on 3rd and 5 but that is because I wanted to stay conservative. I just don't trust Losman and too many things can go wrong on a pass play. Unfortunately, one of them did.
In reality, 3rd and 5 is a down where you should be able to pass or run. Our offense is so flawed that any 3rd down play is a risk.
2. Dwight Freeney lined up way outside and completely beat the TE, not the LT. The Colts were overstacked on our left, they have been looking for a run to the left side. Freeney blew by #84 (Royal) and JP had no chance. JP's ability to sense the rush is not there. Either that or the carpet must be very soft and quiet in the RCA dome.
3. Others are, but I cannot blame Jauron since Fairchild calls the play. There are just so many missed assignments on the offense. The right side of the line is very poor. The TE's do not contribute. The 2nd WR is a non factor. Then you have Losman who still plays like a rookie.
4. I feel we were fortunate to only lose by a point. Thanks to the defense and special teams for that. I guess Jauron and staff did something right to keep us in the game.
5. There is lots of blame to go around if that is what you seek to do. For me, it is hard to judge Fairchild, Jauron, or even Losman when we have such a lack of talent on offense.
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Not really. The Bears fans would have ben mad because he would have called a predictable running play, not a pass.
Let's get serious .. Jauron does not call the plays. Talk to Mr. Fairchild about that call.
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It took to until 1 hour before kick-off to get the guts for this one. But I feel an upset.
Yes, Indy is the more talented and disciplined team but they are not going to run the table this years so let it be the Bills to provide the upset of the week (or yera for that matter).
This can only happen if we can execute this recipe (Stolen from Parcells/Bellichek in SB XXV):
1. run the ball and play ball control
2. Convert 3rd downs
3. no turnovers
4. Tackle sure and hard, make their recievers pay
5. Bigs plays on special teams - the Colts are weak on kick coverages
6. Get lucky. Yes, get some major breaks.
If we cannot do 1 thru 3 above then Manning will pick us apart as usual in the RCA Dome.
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I read this thread the other day and became inspired. I have never really been a gambler, but there are so many threads on this board talking about betting on games, it's really sparked my curiosity.
I really would like to know if any of you actually have a net gain in winnings over the course of a month/year/gambling period. Is it true that you never hear about the big losses, only about the big wins? I'm tempted to become a professional sports gambler, but I don't want to end up like this guy I know who was embezzling money from a Youth Basketball League to support his habit. He eventually was caught and his life was ruined.
Put that money in a low fee S&P 500 Index fund and wait (I mean 5 or 10 or 20 years) Add to it every week or month. History shows that it will grow over time and make you wealthy. If it doesn't grow over time than the stock market is flat or worse. If that is the case there is little you can do to make money other than real estate.
Don't gamble. Invest.
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OK. I decided to look objectively at how much time Losman has before he throws or gets sacked. So I watched the Packer game and recorded from the time the ball was snapped until he threw it, got sacked, or took off running. Then I thought why not compare to Manning and Brady, the game was on NFL Replay. I could only do part of that game, because my wife was demanding the TV back.
None the less, I was surprised by the numbers. I thought JP would have far less time to throw, what I found was quite different. Here's the numbers and my conclusions:
JP's Time:
03.7 complete
03.1 incomplete royal not seen
02.3 quick pa to shelton
02.5 sack -pennington beat
03.8 short underneath to evans
03.6 royal dropped - over db on royals hands
02.0 designed dump off to AT
03.3 sack up middle
01.7 complete 3step drop to reed
02.8 scramble to avoid sack
02.9 down field to evans - drop on his hands safety was there if thrown longer
01.9 rollout complete to price
02.9 sack
03.0 incomplete to royal - near interception
03.9 sack
03.2 incomplete high to davis
02.8 short to shelton - designed
03.4 sack up middle
03.2 incomplete - tipped
01.9 incomplete royal drop - low pass
03.6 touchdown to evans
7-14 (5 sacks) (so I missed one somewhere)
Min: 1.7 seconds
Max: 3.9 seconds
Mean: 2.9 seconds
Incomplete pass to Price in 1st quarter; he had Royal underneath, but appeared to be going for the touchdown and over threw. On dropped pass to Evans that was short; the safety was deep and if the ball is thrown deeper, he'd definitely have a play on the ball. So not a bad throw afterall, in my opinion.
Peyton's Time:
02.9 incompete
02.3 incomplete
05.0 compete - scrambled left
02.4 complete
04.1 complete
02.2 touchdown
02.5 complete
02.8 complete
02.6 complete
03.8 complete
03.7 incomplete -PI
02.7 sack
02.9 intereference
01.4 complete
02.3 incomplete
03.8 thrown away
03.1 sack
02.8 complete
04.6 pressured complete
04.1 complete
01.2 touchdown
13-19 (2 sacks) (selected - I didn't watch the whole game)
Min: 1.2 seconds
Max: 5.0 seconds
Mean: 3.0 seconds
Brady's Time:
02.9 complete
02.0 complete
02.4 complete
03.4 complete
02.0 complete
01.8 complete
02.9 scrambles
02.1 incomplete interference
02.5 incomplete
03.7 incomplete
6-9 (0 sacks) (selected - I didn't watch the whole game)
Min: 1.8 seconds
Max: 3.7 seconds
Mean: 2.6 seconds
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It appears from these limited numbers that JP has just about the same amount of time to throw as Manning and Brady.
However (JP haters knew that was coming), on every pass the Buffalo LOS is getting pushed into JP's face. There was almost no pocket to step into. There was almost no separation between him and the pass rush. In contrast, although Brady and Manning got rid of the ball just as quickly; they had far more separation between them and the rush. Quite often, they could step up in the pocket and really get behind their throws.
In conclusion, given this very limited sample survey, I'd offer that the Buffalo line does give JP time to throw. However, they're consistently getting pushed backwards. The result is JP "appears" to have less time in the pocket and defintely is making more "hurried" throws. The other observation, that seems to be missing from Buffalo's passing protection is the occurence of "passing lanes". There are no clear lanes for JP to readily see the reciever. Manning seemed to consistently have great passing lanes to readily see the field.
The other decidedly noticeable observation was the play calling. The Pats and Colts defintely seem to mix the plays up better. Of course, its very obvious that Manning and Brady are definitely more polished QBs; therefore, they're easily able to scan the field and make the quicker decision. Given the separation when they threw, I'd guess they could have easily had an extra 0.5 second to throw the ball; whereas JP seemed to always throw at the last possible instant.
Talk amongst yourselves...
*Disclaimer - I'm not the best with math, so please check my addition and division, if you wish. I also missed a pass in the Bills game and because I was watching Replay, I certainly did not get all the passes for Manning and Brady. However, these numbers do show a trend which I think is representative of reality for these 2 games.
No real surprise. Manning and Brady get the ball off quicker, they have multiple recievers open, and most importanlty they know how to find them.
One thing that the stats don't tell is the penetration on the pocket. Is it collapsing? Is the OL getting pushed back? He could have 3 or 4 seconds but be fighting for his life for most of the time.
Bottom line is two things:
1 - JP still has a lot to learn, and
2 - Manning and Brady have a much more accomplished supporting cast.
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(While we look for our umbrellas)
Gee, I wonder? ... hmmmm, was it the forced turnovers, the sacks? .... hmmm ... no I'll go with that "only giving up 10 points thingy".
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The Packers have started to roll. Farve is starting to play well and looking for his first win in Buffalo. The Pack have been doing a good job of running and stopping the run. KGB and his linemates have been licking their chops.
The Bills have been playing worse each week. They have been horrible in both red zones. They have one of the worst take-away keep-away ratios. They are poor on 3rd downs on both sides of the ball. Their QB is inexperienced and error prone. They lack discipline and take a lot of penalties. Their best WR is not getting the ball and is facing a premier lock-down corner. The have re-shuffled their OL and have new players in 3 of the 5 positions. They appear to lack leadership and mental toughness.
Prediction: Bils 24 Packers 20.
Hey Bob in STL, your really smart!!
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It is really difficult to think of Buffalo's
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Biggests needs are offensive line, defensive tackle, WR, and I am starting to think that LB is becoming a a need.