Beck Water

So it's kind of interesting, I read an article on Beane. Basically as a young multi-sport athlete, he was always under-sized and epitomized the "it's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog" mantra. McDermott was cast in the same mold (albeit, with a more restrained temper) as a DB. I wish I could find the link, IMHO it sort of shed some light on why Beane and McDermott may over-value under-sized players with "good work ethic" "good background" etc.

It's a point, although if he's a "cap casualty" in Tampa, I don't know how we afford him here.

It means Tasker and Brown provide the "Party Line" talking points provided to the team.

No argument on that Miami and Cinci got push up front. On the other hand, Jones DNP vs. Cinci and no word on when during Mia he got injured. Phillips of course was playing with a torn rotator cuff, DNP vs Miami. I will say that the resources expended on the 1TDT kind of argue that McDermott, Frazier, and Beane don't agree with you. Those resources may not always have been well-spent, or on the right guy, but they do keep spending them. Jones and Settle account for 6% of the Bills cap this season. So would you argue that having Jones out and Phillips, possibly Oliver playing hurt made no difference? We would still get "out physicalled" because we don't have "dudes"? I have to say, if allocating $55M (24%) of the estimated cap for 2023 (excluding Phillips) plus investing 2- 1st round (one #6), 2- second round, 1 third round, and our biggest FA signing is not sufficient to give us whatever we need on the DL, that seems to be a huge talent evaluation issue.

I'm a little confused as to what your intended meaning is. Are you saying the 1TDT position (DaQuan/Settle) isn't a big cog in what makes the thing go? Or that Jordan Phillips (3TDT usually) isn't? If it's nothing we haven't seen all season, how did Miami and how did the Bengals appear more able to exploit more motion in the run game? Was it just because we weren't keeping the backers clean?

Fair. I've said before and I'll freely acknowledge, I struggle to see what's really happening on the field as far as coverage from the TV broadcast. I can see things, but I need all-22 and sometimes several watches. One thing I think I saw repeatedly throughout the game, though, was the Bengals using motion to pull the D out of position and then running into the gap their motion helped to create. Now, it may be that if the front were solid, that wouldn't have mattered, I don't know. And it could be more a function of who we had in the backfield, not being able to play as a unit and adjust correctly when one defender moved. But I saw the Dolphins do this, and I saw the Bengals do this, and we didn't seem to have an effective answer. Maybe there wasn't an effective answer available with the personnel we had on the field. You kind of hint at agreement with that when you mention the limitations the D faced by losing Hyde, then Hamlin. Marlowe didn't cut it, and when Jaquan Johnson came in (roughly half the game) then Poyer went out, it was defensively over. Do you disagree with this? "One perception (or misperception) that I have, is that McDermott/Frazier's scheme depends upon having a couple of key pieces. One is the piece Star Lotulelei was supposed to be but wasn't, but DaQuan Jones was, this season: the huge man who can hold the point of attack and move it back to anchor. Those guys seem hard to find, and hard to have capable backups for. Tim Settle was not that guy." I would like to know this also, as I have searched and can not find information to this point.

Do you think so? McDermott said it was his best year, and he's the sort of player who will continue to work on getting better. Beane said their mantra has been 'draft, develop, re-sign'. I think we make every effort to keep him. Poyer, was injured a TON which happens as players get older, I think he's gonna be a casualty. Oliver is a good question. In theory, we could help ourselves a lot by signing him to a contract and taking a lot of his guaranteed $11M off the books, but I'm not sure we're sold yet. McDermott commented that the DL play was "inconsistent".

One perception (or misperception) that I have, is that McDermott/Frazier's scheme depends upon having a couple of key pieces. One is the piece Star Lotulelei was supposed to be but wasn't, but DaQuan Jones was, this season: the huge man who can hold the point of attack and move it back to anchor. Those guys seem hard to find, and hard to have capable backups for. Tim Settle was not that guy. The other perception I have is that a lot of the run gashing occurred because the Bengals (like the Dolphins) used motion to pull our guys out of position and we didn't make the appropriate adjustments. Maybe that works with guys who can complete each other's sentences like Poyer and Hyde, but when you get down to 2nd and 3rd string it just doesn't. I don't know. Part of me says we just lost too many guys and had too many playing hurt to be effective, and part of me says we've been solved and don't have a counter. I do think it's a significant gap for Leslie Frazier that, unlike Lou Anarumo, he doesn't seem well able to adjust in-game

TBH, I haven't been tracking the duration of Leslie Frazier's contract, much less who is available. It's a very good question I do know that I do NOT want any coach who has been predominantly coaching a 3-4 scheme because I don't want to see us take the several years it would take to change personnel. So by this light, Joe Whitt from the Cowboys maybe OK because they run a 4-3 (and I think, a lot of nickle) but the Jags I'm pretty sure are a 3-4 team - we saw that movie before.

He called them for Kevin O'Connell?

Good stuff here, Thanks. So it's been discussed here ad nauseum that the Bills don't seem able to run a screen game (other than the occasional bubble screen) to save their lives. Now I may be mistaken - I learn more about football every day - but I've never heard of screen plays being run up the middle at the NFL level. I thought the whole idea was to fake pass protection (including the RB) then release to the flat. But the whole "Screen Game and Why Don't the Bills Have One?" is a giant sucking sound. You have a valid point that there seemed to be a lot of pass plays where the options were deeper passes and then short checkdowns. To my eyes a lot of this was the Bills running 11 personnel and keeping Singletary and Knox in to block, or at least to chip and release. Usually they would release to the edge, but to my eyes a fair amount of the time the back would slip out the center. Someone put out a Heat Map on Twitter that showed over the season, not much difference in the target areas. I do share your perception that the middle of the field went under- utilized but apparently objective mapping didn't show that. I just don't think it was Dorsey's offensive design nor done to keep the center open for Josh to run. I think there was a stretch after the UCL injury where Josh wasn't throwing to the middle of the field because he didn't 100% trust his aim. Better to throw for the sidelines where being off-target means an OOB throw vs. the middle of the field where off-target means a pick. I also think that the lack of a slot receiver Josh trusted to get open against zone (and Knox assigned to blocking duties chip and release) played a role. Once Crowder went down, I don't think Josh trusted McKenzie to run the correct route or catch the ball cleanly in traffic. I saw us running layered concepts a lot, with short and intermediate crossing routes. The deep INT to Brown in the MIA playoff game was one of those. We were in heavy personnel 22 with Brown as the only receiver, but we had Morris running a shallow crosser and Gilliam up the side. Anyway, good convo, thanks. What would be really cool would be to see, not a heat map of throws, but some kind of heat map of actual routes run. It would probably take some doing to get it to not be unintelligible spaghetti, but I'd really like to see some objective data on what routes were really there. This is just my perception, but I think a lot of the lack of YAC has to do with Allen being unwilling (or the play not being designed) to take the checkdown option quickly in the play when there is a lot of space to run after the catch. if he would hit those early in the play when the receiver has lots o' space, he would get more YAC. But by design or by preference, Allen waits and buys time for the deep routes to open, and by the time he throws a checkdown coverage has closed in. My perception anyway.

Could be, although from things Josh has said in interviews (including his day-after presser) he has implied that he knows he is not running the offense the way Dorsey designed or intended it to be run at times. And Daboll and Allen were clearly also very very close. Whatever the answer, I agree with what I see as your underlying point that for some reason, coaching of Josh is lacking this year. Perhaps Daboll was more able to say things in a way that Josh was willing to hear, or more able/willing to get in his grill as necessary. I have the impression that Dorsey may not have a "middle ground" between over-the-top "Holy Spirit Comes Out of Him" yelling and patient "learning experience" It also sounds to me that perhaps we can agree that despite the good numbers, overall the offense did NOT operate as smoothly and efficiently this year as last.

3, 5, and 7 step drops apply to play from under center. The Bills run >70% of their offensive plays from shotgun I don't watch that many Bengals games, but from what I have watched, they have always run a short rhythm passing game Zac Taylor came from the LA Rams. That short rhythm passing game bolstered by a strong run game seems to have been a McVay/Shanahan staple.

There's some validity to this, but there's also a valid point that one purpose of the coaching staff is to bring the best performance out of the players, help set them up and enable them to perform, and provide the insight of an external observer. If the offensive coaching staff isn't doing this, then what are they doing?

*ding*ding*ding*ding Willing It's true that Josh struggled a bit in the first weeks after his elbow injury, when he had to revert to his previous throwing motion. But it's not generally true, and hasn't been since 2019. Something is off with either play design, or how Josh was being coached, this season. It's like when Daboll left the building and Dorsey moved upstairs, they were all scared to ruin the "special plays Josh can make" if they got in his grill and told him to take the open checkdowns and let his guys get YAC, and no one was left who would rein him in. I will say this, to my eyes a lot of the season the intermediate options were lacking. Teams were flooding the middle of the field and giving Josh only the short checkdown or the deep shot. But it's not that he can't hit those short checkdowns, it's that he won't. Except that he did, last season, and even in some games this season.

Well, obviously you do or you wouldn't type it, but it's kind of hard to have a discussion if you don't provide evidence or examples to bolster what you say. I watch Cover1 film breakdowns, I read Jim Kubiak's QB analysis which includes film breakdowns, anything other guys put out like Kurt Warner or Brett Kollman, I subscribed to NFL+ premium and watched all-22 myself about halfway through the season, I'm not a football guru but 1) that's not what I see 2) that's not what people who know ball and break down the film (see above) are saying. A lot of times when Allen did scramble, it was to the outside, not up the middle.

Now this, is a Mystery of Life. We've had multiple threads on why the Bills can not run a simple screen, and I don't know the answer.

I don't think this is correct.

Some, but not very many: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/josh-allen/ALL529264/2020 https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/josh-allen/ALL529264/2021 Josh injured his elbow Week 9, and said it impacted his throwing motion until Week 18 or so: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/josh-allen/ALL529264/2022

Allen is capable of throwing short passes. It was his choice to do so that won us a bunch of games last season and even earlier this season. He was also able to throw short timing routes to Beasley last season. Go look at passing charts at nexgen stats and you'll see. It's true that at times this year, Allen has overlooked open short passes in favor of deep bombs or throwing to a tightly covered receiver. I can't tell you whether the "long bomb" game is Dorsey's play design (reading deep to shallow) or how Allen is being coached, but the thing that is amiss is not Allen's lack of short or screen pass throwing abilities.

Kubiak is not a journalist. He's a former QB, a QB coach, and a HS football coach. He is a huge Allen fan now (after having been critical his first 2 years), but he knows his Ball and is worth reading.

I don't think he should be fired at this point. But I don't think he should be COTY either

So you want 10 guys who talk trash on Twitter? Talking smack does not mean you lower the Boom on Sunday

Don’t the truck stops charge $12 per shower? I’m thinking House is a $10 Planet Fitness guy

Cover1 did some stuff about how Miami was manipulating the Bills run coverage by using motion in the passing game. Cover1 just did some stuff about how the Bengals exploited the same flaws. That’s really a defensive scheme and coaching problem. I don’t know if it’s Frazier’s problem or McDermott’s problem, but it’s something we’re going to see, a lot, until they figure out a counter. How can you say we neglected CB when we spent a #1 draft pick on a CB and also a later pick?