Mikie2times

I messed around with a excel draft order program I found online, and it looks almost guaranteed the Bills and Jets winner will drop 5 or more spots. Buffalo would likely be in the 11-13 range if they win, and between 4-7 if they lose. I did a lot of scenarios with other teams winning and losing, and if Buffalo loses a top 5 pick is almost a lock. Then for the Jets if they lose they could end up 1st overall, but with a win could fall to the 6-9 range. Check out the link, and make sure to hit sort on the predicted draft order sheet to ensure it shows the changes made. Excel Draft Order Link

You captured a dilemma facing the Bills in the draft, but it's still awfully early to be placing value on the players you mentioned. Ngata is still a player more then capable of getting top 5 considerations with a solid East-West performance, and good combine, but IMO the same can't be said for Vince Young. Young has been great this year, but let’s just say it's a bit premature to be placing him top 5 in this type of draft class. We all know the crapshoot drafting a QB can be, this team needs help all over the place, and I just can't justify scrapping JP and ignoring the needs by rolling the dice on Matt Lienhart, let alone Vince Young. Both would still get killed by this offensive line, and they both would have to overcome giving up 140+ on the ground each game. Drafting another QB just doesn't feel like the best approach to turning this team around. Two guys you did mention in that group, Reggie Bush and Mario Williams do look to be top 5 locks, and are deserving of consideration. If Bush lasts past the 2nd pick any team would be stupid to pass on him, no matter who they have at RB. Bush looks like a once a decade type player, but I just don't see him making it past 1 and 2 so it won’t matter to Buffalo anyway. As you pointed out Mario Williams should also get some consideration. He plays the opposite side of Schobel, and would really strengthen our DL pass rush. He would also bring some more size at DE, potentially opening the door to a 3-4 defense if we ever find a quality DT.

I understand 8==============D

Seems like a lot of people are looking for the best of both worlds and it probably won't happen. Good coaches that have HC experience are always at a premium, and even if one is available who actually thinks he will come here? Let's face it; Buffalo does not have a long history of bringing in coaches with HC experience, let alone good ones. Plenty of coaches have failed much worse then Haslett and gone on to have success. Personally I would like it to be someone else, but their is a lot to be said for giving a guy a second chance, especially since he will be armed with the knowledge he didn't have before. It almost sounds like the last guy we road out of town, who also happens to be the last guy to get us to the playoffs, Wade Phillips.

I will defend Nate as a top corner, but we have personally witnessed blown assignments and coverage’s all year, much more so then we were used to see from Nate Clements. The scheme does tend to isolate him more, but it has for awhile and he's shown in the past that he could handle it. This year he has really been off and it's made him much more retainable. I figured he had the potential of being the highest paid corner in the NFL at the start of the year. Now he is worth about the franchise tenure, which Mortenson reported as being very affordable. If not Clements, I think Will Allen has shown plenty of value this year for the Giants, and would be worth looking into.

Milloy saves us nearly 3 million if we cut him, while Vincent saves us only 800,000. In terms of play I would rather see Vincent go, in terms of money I would rather see Milloy. If a new GM is brought in we very well could see the FS or SS position shaken up a bit.

Seriously Can you think of any recent player that has managed to hurt his stock as quickly as Clements, without injury? Even the national reporters like ESPN talk about how Clements has played poorly. Resigning him has become an intresting proposition. We will have more then enough cap room to bring some quality players in, and retain Clements, but is he even worth the franchise tenure? Then if you don't tag him some team out there (probably a division team) would pay him top dollar and he would get away. Ultimately I would like to see him tagged, and traded only if the Bills get a premium pick or player.

Apparently you missed the first sentence "Save the usual posts that we can't turn it around with MM and TD. We will see a fall guy, so to write off impending doom without knowing their status is pointless."

Save the usual posts that we can't turn it around with MM and TD. We will see a fall guy, so to write off impending doom without knowing their status is pointless. When I think about how we might be able to improve I'm looking at three main things, what kind of position will we be in to bring in additions, what positive areas of the team will leave, and what areas of the team should stand to get better. When you look at those three areas for the Bills were in good to great shape in everyone, so a quick turnaround is more then achievable. Per Clumpy's updated cap page for 2006 the Bills are in excellent shape to go after FA's this off-season. For this scenario I'm just going to count the #1 WR position for 10 million next year. We can either keep Moulds, or cut him and use that extra money on a replacement, either way he will count about that much if he stays, and his dead cap and replacement will count that much if he goes. With the #1 WR position taken care of we can look to create more room elsewhere. The most likely names include Mike Williams, Sam Adams, Bennie Anderson, Mark Campbell, Jeff Posey, and Damion Shelton. I choose these guys for savings potential, lack of production, and current status on the team. Cutting these guys will add an additional $11,932,098 Million in 2006, and $6,956,666 in 2007. When you combine that figure with clumpy's figure we will be around 23 millions under the cap next season. We also will probably get a top 7 draft choice in a loaded draft, plus the a high 3rd from the Titans. While Buffalo will have more then enough opportunity’s to upgrade the roster, we also shouldn't lose anything major, and have plenty of guys Improve. The only real threat to leave is Nate, but as Mort reported even franchise tenure is affordable in the CB market this year. With the potential of having over 20 million in cap space we can do what we please with Clements. Past that you have the guys from my cut list, Trey Teague, and Josh Reed. Are any of these players really a big loss? Many of them are career back up type players, or at least should be. We know some of these guys can play better then they have, but few have made any impact this year, so we won't feel any loss by them not being around. Past that we have a lot of players that stand to improve their play from 2005. We have YOUNG players, whose play instantly improves with experience. Hell as a high school player you could feel the jump from JV to Varsity, imagine what the hardest jump of all must feel like? JP, Willis, Lee, Peters, Preston, Parrish, Everett, Kelsey, Anderson, Crowell, MaGee etc. Not all of these guys will improve to pro bowlers, or even starters, but the overall experience this year will help them in their future roles. We also get Takeo back, and even if he is half the player he was his intensity and leadership is sorely missed. A big roster turnover is coming, and for the first time in a long time we have the money to spend. The young guys are going to get better, and we won't be losing many players. This season has sucked, but things can turn around quick in this league, and I see Buffalo as a team that could be one of them soon.

That wouldn't be a bad idea. I have some cash saved up, and can take a class around here which can get you into most top notch bars. I also have a contact with an insurance company that only handles group insurance plans for businesses. So the sales reps only deal directly with businesses, no cold calling or prospecting. I already have a life and health license so that is another option I have to consider.

True, and yes I'm 23.

I'm not staying, and wouldn't have taken the job in the first place had I known that was what I would make my first year. It's only my second week, so I just found out the truth about it.

I certainly won’t feel guilty about it, but I have no revenge on my mind. I just started at this place, and will continue threw my training and other requirements while I get my draw and find something else. Either that, or I will create a computer program that that removes small fractions of a penny and places them into an account of my choice. That is if my friends Michael Bolton and Samir will help me.

I usually question the figures, so when the original figure took the plunge I felt like that was probably accurate. At the very least it kept me from pursuing more evidence about the real salary expectations. That was until I actually spoke with a disinterested party. It really sucks, but they already said we don't need to reimburse them for the draw if things don't work out, so I'll just show up and collect my draw while I search for something better.

Ever get a new job, and find out that everything you were told before was a lie? I'm not talking about stuff that can be perceived one way or the other; I’m talking about things like salary expectations, and benefits. The type of things that can be measured, and make a big impact on whether or not you take a job. Recently I got this sales job with an advertising company; they're pretty solid in terms of reputation, history, benefits etc. I'm told "REALISTIC" income expectations for the first year are 35,000$-45,000$. In sales that figure seems fairly accurate for above average people the first year, so I accepted that and moved on. Then the other day my boss (who I didn't interview with) says that original figure we received during the interview was based on large markets. We are not a large market so you can expect those numbers to be around 20,000$-30,000$. So I was thinking fine, still more then enough for the first year. Then today my boss leaves for a few hours and me and this guy start talking. He is one of the top sales guys at this office, and for whatever reason was in a very chatty mood. He had 7 accounts his first month at the company, which is damn good. But that wasn't enough to get him off the draw which is 800$ a month. I asked him when he got off the draw, and he said a couple months ago (he was in year 1 1/2). I then clarified what he said, and it was true, one of the top sales guys at the office couldn't make more then 9,600$ his first year. It just seems wrong to me that this company distorted the figure that much; I mean that's not even enough to cover bills and food for the year. At least it's Friday.

That is exactly why Mario Williams would be such an intriguing pick. Schobels not a world beater but he'll get you around 10 sacks a year, add Williams on the other side with Kelsey rotating and we could have one of the most talented DE rotations in football, with all of them young and under contract. If the Bills decide to go this route Sam Adams must be retained, and the likelihood of that happening seems to be directly linked with the fate of our coaches. We don’t know what will happen with MM and JG for next year, but I am pretty sure this team is not getting two starting caliber DT's in 2006 after the first round, and threw FA's, and that’s what we will need if Adams leaves. One more thing the Bills would need to do if they targeted Williams is address the OL threw FA's. Luckily for us much more talent exists in FA in this area then DT. Even if we make the FA upgrades to the offensive line I would still like to draft a couple G's early to ensure our post Rueben Brown LG problems will come to an end sometime soon.

I consider DT the main priority in the first round, but a top 5 selection might be a little early to go with Ngata. If he's your target I think you do everything possible to drop down a few spaces, but if Reggie Bush, D'Brick Ferguson, or Mario Williams are available they also need consideration. Bush should be gone by then, but from the 3rd pick on any team in the NFL would be stupid to pass on him, no matter who they have at RB. Ferguson, is somebody we so desperately need, and we can’t afford to pass him up if he falls. He is supposed to have some of the best footwork, and pass protection skills of any college player in a long time, and that’s exactly what the Bills need at LT. I saved Mario Williams for last because I view him as the wild card. He's supposed to be the best DE prospect since Peppers, and is built in the same mold. Another important variable is that he plays LE, which is currently occupied Chris Kelsey, not Aaron Schobel. A trio of Schobel, Williams, and Kelsey is very enticing, and while it doesn't improve us at OL or DT, sometimes turning an average group into a great group can really pay off.

Yes and Yes

This is my current mock draft with the assumption of Buffalo picking between 3-6. In my mock the Bills also were awarded a 3rd and 4th in compensation for PW and JJ. Finally Ferguson did not fall to the Bills so I traded down 5-8 spots picking up an additional second round pick. 1.Haloti Ngata DT Oregon 2.Daryn Colledge OT Boise State 2.Davin Joseph OG Oklahoma 3.Terna Nande OLB Miami (OH) 3.Matt Lentz OG Michigan 3. Pat Watkins FS Florida State 4.Greg Threat SS Miami 4.Kamerion Wimbley DE Florida State 5. Josh Betts QB Miami (OH) 6.Clinton Solomon WR Iowa 7.Tramain Hall WR N.C. State

Would you be satisfied if MaGahee was Travis Henry without the fumbling? I just think people tend to view these two so differently, and it goes past the fumbles. Until the Bills went down hill if you mentioned anything bad about Willis you got killed on the board. Now only a few get pissed, and the thought of him being on the slower side is becoming more accepted. Travis Henry without the fumbles is a pretty good back, and if that’s what Willis really is right now things could be much worse then they are. I just think the national interest, and media coverage Willis initially received vaulted his status to an elite back in most people’s minds, and perhaps even his own. A back like Travis Henry without the fumbles is top 10 or so, which is wear Willis should probably rank. I just don't see this train of thought prevailing with McGahee’s contract demands.

it was a week ago anyway, I'm just glad I'm not the only one thinking this

Brown did get a return TD yesterday. I had to do a double take, thought it was the 2003 preseason.

I noticed that myself, here's some additional discussion from last week. Linky

I'm not going to down play the lines roll in the running game, as we know it's instrumental, but I disagree that the line playing poorly is what's really hiding the explosion. We've watched him run almost 600 times, and have seen him play in 29 games. You can see explosiveness from the acceleration in and out of cuts, and Willis has been in space enough times for us to get a good look at it. What I see is the vast majority of NFL backs having more explosion then MaGahee, and it really doesn't surprise me. At Miami he had one of the truly great seasons for a RB, and was looked at as the next great back. I watched him play several times, and I can say with absolute certainty that he was worth the hype. He had the tools he has now, namely power and vision, but he also had great acceleration, and agility. Willis post injury has retained the power and vision, which happens to be enough to make him a pretty solid player. If he does get his speed back that should give you an idea of just how good this guy can be. I just don't know if he can recover from that kind of injury 100% because we really haven't seen many NFL players do it before. It’s remarkable he’s come this far.

Actually Travis put better numbers up in 2002 and 2003 in every statistical category then Willis has in 2004 and 2005. This holds true for both overall numbers and averages based on carries. Travis did have the fumbling problems and some of the field stuff and that’s why we let him go, but Willis in 2004 and 2005 is not exactly showing up Travis Henry. The projected category shows MaGahee’s stats based on the same number of carries as Travis. For TD's and receptions I did it by averaging the amount of receptions per rush, and the amount of TD's per rush. Willis McGahee (2004 and 2005)...Projected.............Travis Henry (2002 and 2003) 555 Rushes ............................. .656 Rushes.................656 Rushes 2160 Yards................................ 2552 Yards. ................2794 Yards 3.89 AVG................................... 3.89 AVG ...................4.25 AVG 17 TD. .......................................20TD......................... 23 TD 42 REC.......................................50 REC.......................71 REC 311 Yards....................................370 Yards.................. 467 Yards 0 TD........................................... 0 TD......................... 2 TD 5 FUM..........................................6 FUM.........................18 FUM