Mikie2times

You picked this year, then randomly picked out a year of out a sample size of 50+ years that suited your argument. I "randomly" picked the 90's, you can also randomly pick the 80's or the 70's and get the same data. I also did it pre chuck rule and post chuck rule. So not exactly random. More of a factual way of interpreting information. Farve had a career completion % of 62% Moon had a career completion % of 58.4% Bledsoe had a career completion % of 57.2% Marino had a career completion % of 59.4% Only 1 out of the 4 above 60%, meanwhile this year 24 teams surpass that mark Scoring is up. Not enough for your liking, but it's up. Maybe I should have titled the thread today's games are boring because QB is all that matters and diversity in elite rushing and elite defenses doesn't compete against elite QB's. That seemed a little long though.

Sine the chuck rule in 2004 passing TD's are up 13% compared to 1990-2003, points per game are up 1.67 which may sound small, but it's 428 points a year more on average. Elite QB's can take advantage of the rules the most. Brady does not have the career he has had without the chuck rule. That whole offense is timing. It just changes the game in the way teams are forced to find an elite QB because in doing so that can overcome elite running teams and defenses. Exceptions can be found, but that's exactly what they are, exceptions.

All passing metrics are up compared to years past as you would expect them to be. With the rules as they are, great QB's are better on average than great defenses. This leads to lack of balance in the product. You see exceptions, but you don't see many rules. In the early 90's a great QB against a great defense was a 50/50. It's just not that way anymore.

Pretty lazy way of using data to fit an agenda. This decade compared to the 90's Passing TD's are up 29%.

I think the great defenses also led to the more exciting story lines. In no way is this supposed go the path of a hate New England thread, but let me see Brady in the early 90's with his WR's having massive timing interuptions.... I liked the great ground attacks. Great defenses. All things great outside of just the QB position. It's what made the game diverse.

It's so natural to long for times gone by, but I just appreciated the NFL so much more before it was intentionally converted to a QB league. I like defense. I like seeing defenses that are so formidable they can combat even the best QB's. Consider in 1990 only 3 teams had a completion % above 60%, this season 24 teams did. Anybody else feel similar?

Buffalo will not sign Cousins. I certainly wouldn't mind it, but he's going for money we won't compete with. After that Tyrod is equal to anybody else. They will keep him for insurance. If they don't need to cash the insurance they will trade him. I do think he has some trade value. I'm ready to move on from him, but is he among the top 32 QB's in the NFL? Even his detractors would admit to that. He will start somewhere next season and I will be rooting for him. He has been as much of a class act as you can possibly be.

I was pro Watson early last year. I just think at some point these scouts get analysis paralysis. Watson shredded the top defense in the country back to back seasons on the biggest stage. He wasn't as run prone as some think, pretty neutral, did a ton of damage with his arm. Took a Clemson to the first NC in 35 years and B2B NC's. This against a Power 5 Schedule. At that point if he has a clean head and doesn't have a noodle arm, let it be. He passes the test.

All the conversation is focused on a big FA signing or a trade up. Would it surprise anyone if we didn't land Cousins? At which point you either execute your trade up or you are likely looking at the scenario in the subject line. The scenario nobody wants to talk about which puts Taylor back in play. It's all in preference but I don't want to hang my hat on Rudolph or Jackson for the next 3-4 years. Don't kid yourself when it comes to the franchise QB game. We need to play it but the wrong choice has just as strong of an impact as the right choice. If we don't get our guy I would rather we move on. I don't want Taylor one more year and I sure as heck don't want to see the above scenario, but I'm surprised it's not being discussed. If nothing happens in FA or a trade up I would think this is the most likely position we will find ourselves in. An interesting sub plot to this is we will get some direction in the next 30 days. Tyrod is due 6 million on 3/16, if he is on the roster after that it could indicate Buffalo being defensive toward the scenario outlined in this post. If we move on Tyrod it could indicate Buffalo's confidence in delivering on a FA or trade up.

We all have our opinions on who we like the most. That said, whoever the Bills get, if they do get somebody, and it's high, I hope the fan base will be supportive early.

This is where I have landed as well after multiple statistical evaluations and then reviewing the film. I will only speak to Rosen, because I do feel that is our target with the Giants Pick, but if not Rosen I would like it to be Mayfield. In my eye Rosen has just distanced himself enough from Mayfield that I really hope that's who we land. #1: Rosen: Several very strong qualities that would translate over that none of the other QB's showed consistently. His upper body can be shifting and scanning all across the field at a rapid rate but his lower body and feet keep up and in such a fluid way. Just impeccable foot work and positioning to always be ready to pull the trigger. He scans the field and in most the throws he made he wasn't throwing to his first target. He manipulates defenses with his pump fake and body positioning. His release is lightning quick. Does a great job hitting the intermediate throws, specifically over the center and back shoulder. Great ball placement. Could work on his deep ball a bit. I don't think he has elite arm strength but certainly more than enough. He could start his first season and be on his way by year two. He's the best QB in this draft and has been considered as such for some time, all this QB hype from other prospects has sort of clouded that.

The below is pretty realistic IMO. I would then trust the front office to fill out the rest of the roster with players that fit the system. They seem to do a good job identifying those undervalued players by other teams that perform well in our scheme specifically on defense. With this plan I want to address the DL, LB, WR, CB, and QB. Free Agency WR: Jaron Brown, Cardinals: Vertical threat won’t break the bank. DT: Star Lotulelei, Panthers: We need DL help, Star has a history with our front office. I think this gets done. WR: Jordan Matthews, Bills: He has had some very productive seasons and was a horrible fit for Tyrod with most his game coming in the intermediate route tree, especially over the middle. DT: Kyle Williams, Bills: Kyle plays one more season CB: E.J. Gaines, Bills: He fits the scheme; we played much better when he was on the field Draft Round 1: Bills Select Josh Rosen QB UCLA Recap: Bills trade picks 21, 22, 53, and Cordy Glenn, to the New York Giants, acquire pick 2 Round 2: Rashaan Evans MLB/OLB Alabama Round 3: Malik Jefferson MLB/OLB Texas

Originally signed on with Tennessee, didn't work out. Fell out of football, played D-2, then landed in Memphis and had some prolific seasons. I watched 4 Memphis games this year, I don't see him as an NFL QB. They run so much RPO it's hard to evaluate him fairly. His arm strength is a ? Which was evident going against the wind in his bowl game against Iowa State. You could see balls tail and dive. Wasn't pretty. If he gets drafted it will be late or he will be a UFA.

What I don't like about Allen is he seems to bail from the pocket early. At Wyoming this resulted in a ton of big plays as he's good outside the pocket. It just won't work in the NFL. He will get sacked before those plays will develop. Allen has the strongest arm and best build. That will always intrigue scouts. Sometimes it will do so to the extent he goes way higher than he should. I wouldn't be shocked if he is one of the first off the board or if he slides to the 20's.

I'm sure the Eagles and Doug Pederson went to work every day. Just as sure his players enjoyed themselves more. I would hate working for a company ran with a BB mindset. That mindset doesn't guarantee success either. Most the time it leaves to contempt and resentment. Having one of the best QB's of all time and the constant success has allowed him to run a system like that for so long. If he had a couple losing seasons he would lose the team.

Likewise and thank you for not putting that in context of what I want.

Which criteria? I got Hurst as an option once in about 20 simulations. Mayfield never made it past Arizona.

Use the criteria I suggested and the best you will get is Rudolph or Jackson as QB options. It doesn’t give you the option of trading up.

Key question in this draft is can we acquire a viable QB outside the draft, if not, do we spend the expensive price to acquire one in the draft knowing we have so many holes or do we pass one more year and focus filling those areas? I think the latter could even put Tyrod back in play. It's incredible how many paths this team could take in the off-season.

I approached this as if we didn't sign Brown, Gaines, or land a viable DT. Sort of worst case scenario across all defensive positions. I think this time of year fans put together completely unrealistic mocks. Sure that has it's place. Personally, I would rather trade Top 10 and land either Rosen, Allen, or Mayfield. That said I boxed myself in because more often than not these unrealistic trades never happen. What you have left if they don't is no interior DL and No LB's. LB really standing out because how strong Carolina's groups was and how unlikely FA is do address that position. I think we will land Star Lotulelei and I hope we can make a play to get back Nigel. We will see. I think boxing it in has some value.

Obviously the needs change a lot with Free Agency. Sign Gaines and Brown (rather move on with Brown), land Star from Carolina and this becomes a different conversation. I still like one of those two LB’s a lot though and see us drafting a LB in the first 3 rounds.

I looked at interior OL, edge rusher, and obviously QB. No options presented themselves within the guidelines I stated and the mocks I used. I'm very high on Kirk and Washington at WR and we still need help in that area. We need to retool DT and LB and in a bad way. Those were the options I got at the highest levels in each mock.

lol, elaborate please

I like mocks but I prefer to use the simulation sites and some guidelines. This is a pretty neat site I saw linked last year: https://fanspeak.com/ontheclock For these 3 mocks I had to select a player that was within the top 10 best players available, the number to the right of the player is his best player available rankings on the overall boards for each of these mocks. Obviously you see a large range of how these simulators project players which is why I used 3 different versions. Curious to what other direction some of you might go with the same settings and Top 10 Best Overall Guidelines. Settings: Bleacher Report Mock, User Selected draft needs, Difficult Setting 21: Rashaan Evans LB (1) 22: Malik Jefferson LB (2) 53: Christian Kirk WR (1) 56: Harrison Phillip DT (1) 95: RJ McIntosh DT (3) Settings: NFL Mock, User Selected draft needs, Difficult Setting 21: James Washington WR (1) 22: Maurice Hurst DT (2) 53: Rashaan Evans LB (2) 56: Malik Jefferson LB (2) 95: Tarvarus McFadden CB (10) Settings: Fanspeak, User Selected draft needs, Difficult Setting 21: Rashaan Evans LB (1) 22: Josh Jackson CB (7) 53: Malik Jefferson LB (1) 56: Taven Bryan DT (3) 95: James Washington WR (2)

I can apply a rational theory to the rushing information both from a high and low standpoint. I certainly can't validate that theory based on the sample size. My take? If I'm looking at a #1 overall pick/top 3 pick, I think you throw it out. Do that and you eliminate every successful QB on the list . Outside that you have a 100% bust rate on 18 QB's. 18 of 18 QB's drafted from 2000 on that weren't #1 overall selections did not start more than 64 games. Every QB from this list that did start 64 or more games was drafted 1st overall. Lamar Jackson is within the 18 of 18 trend and so is Mason Rudolph. Maybe Josh Rosen falls into it, he wouldn't scare me as much. Jackson and Rudolph scare the living crap out of me.