MasterStrategist
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Posts posted by MasterStrategist
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Nice work @Alphadawg7!
I'm biased, bc I'm a big fan of Worthy and the impact he could being to this offense/Brady's scheme. Beane has moved in front of Dallas before and perhaps he will again.
JMO, I'm not a fan of trading back in this draft. Rather move up "modestly" in Rd1 and/or make a big jump in Rd2 (ie trade next yrs Diggs pick to say Car for their 2nd selection in Rd2, acquire their top fourth pick as well). If the right DL is still there.
I agree on S being a nice add in 3rd round, if we move back. But I could see in my trade scenario, of finding a good prospect at top of 4th.
Fun time of year, lots of options with the extra pick next yr now
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11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
I'm with you. If Latu lasted to #28 then, as you know, I'd probably take him. And while it wouldn't my pick I'd understand the reasoning behind Chop at #28 too. But beyond that the three second round grades I have - Trice, Braswell and Isaac - are all more 3-4 rushers for me. I might consider Trice if he is sticking out at #60 because I think he could be developed into a 4-3 end (he'd need to be sticking out) but I'm not sure he is a day 1 starter in this scheme. In round 3 I like Noah Elliss more than most but again not as a Bills fit I think he is a 3-4 outside backer who does his best work from a two point stance.
After those guys, honestly, I just don't like the class. I have a 5th round grade on Kneeland. I don't like him at all. I think he has very little pass rush upside. I think Austin Booker late 3rd / early 4th is someone who'd be of interest and Javon Solomon 4th/5th round too. Then you get into Jalyx Hunt, Brennan Jackson and Myles Cole who I'm fine to throw 5th, 6th, 7th rounders at but are not guys that you draft expecting to get into your rotation much in 2024.
We have a need at EDGE but you don't make Marshawn Kneeland the answer to that need just by overdrafting him on day 2. You may as well give Shaq Lawson another 1 year vet minimum deal for the value he'd bring.
I'm a big fan of Javon. I think he's a great fit for us as a situational pass rusher (wide 9 type).
He has the lower body bend/balance to arc to the QB, has great explosion. His size worries me in the run game, but I think he has 8 sack potential as a rookie in our system. His long arms is a big trait in what Beane looks for as well. His get off is better than anyone we have, except Von (if he regains prior form).
Just think Javon makes a ton of sense. As a 4th rounder, he's better value than Chop at 28, IMO. I think Javon is in play for Gmen at top of 4th, I'd preferably like to trade both of our 4ths to Arizona to get ahead of them
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Frank Gores kid and Isaih Davis are two guys that fit our mold in a rotational role/backup.
I agree 5th round is a nice sweet spot for landing a rotational backup
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11 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:
I’m assuming you are aware that the DE talent come Day 3 is pretty low .. Xavier Thomas and Kamara best of a bad bunch most likely …it’s debatable they are much better than Toohill or Kingsley…Im hoping that they can get a guy in the Top 60 .. along with 2 WR … yes Beane’s will really need to work some magic …
I think Javon Solomon is a strong possibility, in the 4th. Might require a small tradeup but he's someone I think the Bills are interested in.
Looking for a guy to compete as a 4th/5th edge player. Top 3 are locked in and Coohill might be a better fit than I'm expecting, or Jonathan makes a jump.
But I agree, it's not deep at all at Edge in this draft class. If we draft past the 4th round, it's probably competing for the last DE spot. I think if we land Solomon, he could add some pass rush juice sooner than later, but might be limited to mostly pass downs.
To me, ideally we land:
Rd1: Mitchell, Worthy, or Franklin
Rd2: Roke or Maason
Rd3: trade into 3rd (next years pick from Diggs trade) for Kam Kinchens or another safety
Rd4:trade up for Solomon
Use rest of draft on OL, CB, RB. That addresses our major/minor needs. Once we get to the 5th round especially, I see us going RB/CB - two positions where depth roster spots are open. We're fairly set on OL, could always use upgrades but don't see it happening until late.
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6 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:
I wouldn’t be relying on finding a post June 1 Leonard Floyd signing again … you can sign a guy but does mean it will work out as well as Floyd did ..DE is a very much a need … given the scheme rotation requirements and the question mark over Miller … Maybe not quite as big as WR …
100% agree and I mentioned that in a post.
Not expecting Floyd production, but 5-7 sacks. Thinking Ogbah is a strong possibility, or a lower chance for Yannick. I'm hopeful we land one of these post June 1st, on top of drafting a DE in the 4th-6th range to compete with Casey Toohill and Kingsley
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1 hour ago, OldTimer1960 said:
I think the cap savings from Tre are needed for signing the rookies.
Not true.
By the time rookie salary replaces existing player in top 51, we'd only be adding approx $2.5-3.0m. That's a ballpark estimate, but it won't be much higher than that. We already have that in available cap room.
We will need some the Tre money for Practice Squad/signings throughout the year onto roster.
But we should effectively have $5m or so to spend in FA, post June 1st. They could easily sign a 1yr deal with added voided years to fit a "Leonard Floyd" type for that. Just like LY.
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5 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:
You really want to count on Miller? He *might* be better this year, but I wouldn’t count on that. Really, that can sink their season as easily as wr can.
I think Von will be a solid 8-10 sack guy this year. Came back way early from his torn ACL, year 2 is always the "get close" to form year. Even at his age, he has 1-2 productive years left in this league.
He's highly motivated/hard worker naturally, but also has alot of incentives riding on this year.
JMO. But I'm also hoping Beane uses the post June 1 Tre $$$s on a FA DE. Someone who can be insurance/allow Groot to slide inside on passing downs again.
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12 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:
The Iggles just signed Smith to this extension and also have Hurts signed to a 5 year, $255M contract.
Their window with Hurts/Brown/Smith are the next couple years.
AJ Brown likely gone in 2026
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Looks a bit like Micah....but could be Austin Johnson
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Not only will the price tag of a Aiyuk, JJ, Higgins be alot, but the draft capital as well. We're likely talking a future 1st rounder at minimum.
If we're going to drop a future 1st, I'd rather do what it takes to move up for 1 one of the top 3 in this years draft.
I could see Beane wanting to get that "stud" prospect OR building our WR group like the GB model (young collective unit, but no #1).
Either way, I don't see us trading for a premier WR
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4 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:
Again, we don’t have 2 starting edge players. We don’t have 2 starting outside WRs.
Need isn’t a question here. We need both, but we can’t draft both at 28.
I beg to differ about Edge. Like I mentioned, for better or worse, we're likely to roll with Groot and a combo of Von/AJE ( and potential FA signing post June 1st). We're counting on Von to get close to his old form and for AJE to be more consistent.
Next year, Edge will be the biggest need once Von is cut.
As for WR, we "might" have 1 outside WR in Samuel. Bigger than that, we don't have any downfield threats.
We have a starting DL to roll out, we can't say the same about WR
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1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:
This is not how you draft. Trading Diggs doesn’t mean you take a worse player.
If a 1st round player drops to 28 then you take him.The Bills will probably have around 20 1st round players in this draft. If one falls to 28 it’s an easy pick. If none fall then they probably take the top WR remaining on their board.
I'm not debating how you draft, you just changed the topic.
You stated that Edge is a greater need than WR. I was trying to convey my opinion as to why it isn't. Then I added what I hope to see happen in the draft.
Two separate topics, but DE is not a greater need than WR
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1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:
I see Von, who might be finished. AJ, who’s never put it all together. And Rousseau, a legit starting edge.
Edge is worse or equal to WR. Both are important positions.
I would have agreed on EDGE/WR being equal, but prior to Diggs trade.
We just lost 240 targets, between our WR1 and WR2. I think drafting a RD1 WR has been long overdue, most will agree. Someone who can take on 80 or so targets. Rest of targets will get spread amongst Samuel/Kincaid/Shakir and most likely a 2nd WR drafted in the 4th or 5th.
At Edge, I see us addressing 4th round+ and also targeting a FA post June 1. Similar to Floyd LY, but not holding out hopes for as much impact (at least a vet rusher to rotate). For better/worse, Von is penciled in as a starter/rotational rusher (teaming with AJE). With a late pick and another FA addition, I think we can be good enough up front (similar to LY).
DT is where we need to start getting better push/interior pressure.
I see us going:
Rd1: Mitchell or Worthy
Rd2: Nubin or Kinchens
Rd3 (trade next years 2nd from Minny, to get into top 10 of this years 3rd round): Maason or Ruke
Rd4: DE and RB/WR
Rd5+: WR/RB, CB, OL
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1 hour ago, MrEpsYtown said:
All great points!
I think Thomas is in his own tier. Then Mitchell and Worthy.
1: MHJ, Nabers, Odunze
2: Thomas
3: Mitchell, Worthy
4: Leggette, McConkey, Franklin, Coleman - (these feel like back end round 1 early round two)
5: Walker, Polk, Pearsall, Burton, Wilson, Baker etc etc. (late two and beyond)
I think if you want Thomas it's probably a trade-up. Then it's whatever your flavor is. I do think Mitchell and Worthy are first-rounders. I don't love Worthy, but there is no way the NFL brain trust is going to let the fastest player ever go in round two.
I think we are going to have our pick between tier 3-4.
These are my exact thoughts as well, excellent write up.
Realistically, I see one of the Tier 3 guys being there at our pick, and quite possible 1 of the tier 4 guys is gone (some team falls in love with any of these guys).
I prefer we don't trade back, as this scenario (V2) played out. I think we stand a chance of losing out on a Tier3 player (given that's how Beane assess them), or missing out on our top tier 4 guy.
Rd 2, I'm coming around to the realization that we're likely not double dipping at WR (at least not this soon). Rather S, OL, or DL. I see safety as the most immediate impactful position/most upgradable and we certainly need a better 3rd safety at minimum.
I also prefer we trade next years 2nd (minn pick), to get into Rd 3 /hoping in the top 10 of round. And grab a DT 3tech, either Ruke or Maason. Maason, biggest question is if he regains in pre injury form, both guys would be solid options behind Ed.
4th+, address another WR, CB (I think Devonshire is our guy if there in the 6th), Rb, and OL depth.
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Kam Kinchens makes alot of sense. Playmaker, College FB coach on staff, could be a starting FS immediately.
Best thing is we brought in a college DB coach. Who will be very familiar with players not only on Miami, but others in college football.
Rd 2 pick needs to be a starter and impact player, and this checks the box. We need a FS with range and playmaking ability. Kam also brings position flex, dropping into the box/blitzing, and can drop down into the slot. His 40 time isn't indicative of his on field instincts/playing speed
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Like others said, "if" this trade would happen, it would occur post June 1st.
Let's see what we do in the draft at WR, that should be telling.
My opinion is sit tight at 28 and see who is there. Going to be a lot of good WRs to pick from. We could go alot of different directions in Rd2, that will be a polarizing pick (position) among fans for certain.
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9 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:
Spencer has actual value IMO. We did it with Cordy Glenn. Perhaps Spencer gets us from 28 to 13-16ish if we add a 2025 4th
Or he could be used in a package to NYG
I'm curious why everyone is now mentioning trading Brown?
We finally have a legit T combo (solid OL in general), Brown is young and still hasn't reached his ceiling. With plenty of 2025 cap space, I'd expect we re-sign him longterm.
Who starts for Brown if he's traded? Collins??? He didn't play LY/might be a camp body only, now we expect him to protect Josh? Didn't we see what happened when Quessenberry experiment failed?
1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:I wonder about Spencer Brown as a possible trade piece. I wonder what he would be worth.
See above. How does this improve our team? Who starts at RT?
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56 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:
I’m either team “big move up” or team “2 guys by 50.” I want either one of the big 3 (and another WR shortly thereafter) or 2 of the next 8.
I like 2 of the next 8 approach. Preferably 2 primary boundary types. Gives our offense more versatility and 2 cost controlled contracts for multiple seasons.
The top 3 are near "can't miss" prospects/ability to be elite. But I think that's going to cost way too much, not a fan of trading that much draft capital.
Especially with a deep/talented/versatile collection of Tier2/3 guys, I think we will find some solid talent to add to our current arsenal of short/intermediate weapons.
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8 minutes ago, papazoid said:
how bout
my 2024 - 2nd for your 2025 1st
my 2025- 2nd for your 2026 1st
my 2026 - 2nd for your 2027 1st
my 2027 - 2nd for your 2028 1st
my 2028 - 2nd for your 2029 1st
my 2029 - 2nd for your 2030 1st
If you're being serious, no LOL.
Personally, if I'm giving up a future 1st, it's because I'm moving up for a QB, or a generational talent at WR/LT/CB.
I think you're taking my original point WAY out of context.
At no point was I discussing trading a future 1st. I'm trying to convey that I think Beane is highly likely to move next years 2nd (either Min or ours), to move up in the 1st or 2nd round
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2 minutes ago, papazoid said:
in fact.....i will trade you my entire 2024 draft.....except my 1st rounder
my 2024 - 2nd for your 2025 1st
my 2024 - 3rd for your 2026 1st
my 2024 - 4th for your 2027 1st
my 2024 - 5th for your 2028 1st
my 2024 - 6th for your 2029 1st
my 2025 - 7th for your 2030 1st
on behalf of the Academy....i accept my executive of the year award.....i'd like to thank my parents.....
The only trade a team would possibly due is the 1st scenario you listed.
Again, going beyond 1 year isn't super common (unless a team massively covets a player).
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8 minutes ago, papazoid said:
i will glady trade you my 2025 3rd round pick for your 2027 1st round pick
i have two 2024 4th round picks.....i will trade both of them for your 2026 2nd & your 2027 1st
I know you're joking but the value changes completely looking beyond 1+ years.
Just passing along info that is widely available and actually was used in the Vikings /Texans trade recently
14 minutes ago, Logic said:
"Half as much" is not accurate, but it is true that in the context of trading draft picks, they lose one round of value for each year into the future that they are. So a 2025 2nd is equivalent in value to a 2024 3rd, and a 2026 2nd is equivalent in value to a 2024 4th.
Now, this formula only speaks to the value of picks in relation to their use in trades. If you look at any draft trade chart, be it Jimmy Johnson's or Rich Hill's, you'll see that this is true.
That said, even if we consider the pick to be of 3rd round value, it STILL seems like a good return for a 30 year old WR on what has become a one-year deal. One need look no further than the compensation given up for Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, Diontae Johnson, etc -- not to mention the comparative compensation given up for guys at other positions like Sneed and Burns -- to see that Beane did quite well.
All of that said, there's a pretty good chance the pick winds up being a high one next year. Assuming the Vikings have a losing record -- not a crazy assumption if they start a rookie or Sam Darnold -- we could be looking at something like the 38th to 45th pick in the draft!Half as much is pretty darn close...it's actually worth a bit less than half, based on trade value charts
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Just now, Dillenger4 said:
This actuallyh makes sense in the realm of possibility. But why does everyone on here think we are going to pick multiple WR's early? Heck, I'm shocked if we take one at 28 over a DE which is what we need the MOST!
Beane get's Ayouk and our draft is studs on D. SB baby!
I thought DE was tied with WR as a need, potentially higher even, prior to Diggs trade.
If Latu is sitting there in the 20s, he'd be a possibility.
Key thing, for me at least, is that we possess ZERO boundary receivers. Yes, Samuel can bounce our there. But he's not a full option there, he's better in the slot/moved around in formations. Shakir is a slot only type to me, he can play boundary but is very limited downfield and against man he's underwhelming.
So that's why I think this is the year to double up on WR early. Great class and meets a big need. Sets us up nicely for cap in 2025+.
DE to me, other than Latu is risky with either Robinson at 28. A 2nd Rd DE won't move the needle in this draft class. We need to count on Groot, Von, AJE, and what I hope is a post June 1st signing (similar to Floyd)
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5 minutes ago, papazoid said:
if your willing to trade your next years 480 points (2nd round pick) for my this years 220 points (3rd round pick)
i'd do that every year with ya. to me this years 42nd pick is worth exactly the same as next years 42nd pick.
It's fine to have that opinion, but that line of thinking is quite different than many NFL GMs.
Not only a year later, but depends how NFL GMs view next years potential draft class. They're scouting ahead, and looking at team needs for this year and beyond.
I think any trade scenario discussed is possible (ie:move up in Rd 1 or Rd 2, acquire a 3rd Rd). I am fairly confident that Beane will use Min's 2nd rd pick (2025) as a trade piece during this draft, or maybe I'm just hopeful.
Looking at 2025 cap/our situation, we should have the ability to acquire a decent haul in FA. For 2024, I think we "need": Boundary WRs (both high picks), S #3 that competes for starter role/ready to take over in 2025, DT (3 tech), and a 4th corner (outside). RB2, DE and OL depth are nice to haves, but think we sign post June 1st (perhaps OL depth is primarily set)
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Just now, papazoid said:
if that is true
would you trade your next years 2025 @ 2nd round pick for my this years 2024 @ 3rd round
Possibly. My preference would be to move up into 35-40 range, from pick 60 in Rd 2, and get another highly graded WR (in addition to Rd 1)
Media Day at OBD (Beane, McDermott, Josh & more)
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
It's easy to read too much into comments this time of year, and perhaps Beane is trying to throw off other teams.
But, when I heard him talk about medicals and "we" (fans/media) question why they passed on a player (who has great highlights/media projections), along with mentals/versatile/unselfish. Just gets me thinking a guy like Mitchell is not the target. He isn't very versatile, IMO, his lack of effort on plays/talk about his diabetes/etc
Again, could be overthinking it. But I'm hearing versatile and guys I immediately think of at 28 or early RD2: Worthy, Franklin, Ladd, Coleman.