MasterStrategist
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Posts posted by MasterStrategist
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I think it was postponed, back in January...so sorta old news.
But agree, frustrating to many and prayers to the kids/family.
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Great analysis and thank you, @GunnerBill.
I think this could setup a "trade back" situation, for teams at the end of round 1. Some QB needy team selecting in the top 10, may not spend that capital on this crop but willing to part with their 2nd and 3rd to move up if "their guy" is still available (and many teams have varying opinions, no true #1 qb prospect this season).
Couple this with a fewer 1st round graded players, maybe 20ish, and this presents a good chance teams will be looking to move up to 18-22 range, or out of round 1.
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3 hours ago, MAJBobby said:
3 years 26M that is where I go. AAV is 8.6M That is a good contract for Poyer. Can make the first 2 years fully guaranteed. Anything more than that I would move on
I think that's fair, my original thought was $9-10m per AAV, given cap likely to keep increasing value.
1 problem I see is if we give this to Jordan, then Micah is immediately underpaid (compared to Poyer). To me, both are worth similar $s, and I haven't done the research to see total value each player has received while in Buffalo, but may factor into decisions.
On the other hand, I am a big supporter of Hamlin and think he could be ready to step up as a starter by 2023. Jordan has 2-3 great seasons left though, so my preference would be to keep him and Hyde working together.
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7 minutes ago, Tuco said:
That would leave Bates with a base salary of $0 dollars for the season. That's not allowed. I wasn't really being snarky but let me tell you I understand the cap rules. I wish I had saved a screen shot of Bates contract details from Spotrac when they first went up compared to what they are now. But whether you like it or not, here's the real numbers and how they were changed. (by the way, Bates never had a $1.5 million salary for 2022, it was, and still is, actually $1.45 million)
His initial contract looked like this (guaranteed amounts in bold red)-
YEAR -- BASE SALARY -- PRORATED BONUS -- ROSTER BONUS -- WORKOUT BONUS -- CAP FIGURE
2022 -- $1,450,000 -- $500,000 -- $1,500,000(GTD) -- $50,000 -- $3,500,000
2023 -- $3,900,000 -- $500,000 -- $0 -- $100,000 -- $4,500,000
2024 -- $3,400,000 -- $500,000 -- $500,000 -- $100,000 -- $4,500,000
2025 -- $3,400,000 -- $500,000 -- $500,000 -- $100,000 -- $4,500,000
And the new figures with the guaranteed roster bonus converted to signing bonus and prorated look like this -
YEAR -- BASE SALARY -- PRORATED BONUS -- ROSTER BONUS -- WORKOUT BONUS -- CAP FIGURE
2022 -- $1,450,000 -- $875,000 -- $0 -- $50,000 -- $2,375,000
2023 -- $3,900,000 -- $875,000 -- $0 -- $100,000 -- $4,875,000
2024 -- $3,400,000 -- $875,000 -- $500,000 -- $100,000 -- $4,875,000
2025 -- $3,400,000 -- $875,000 -- $500,000 -- $100,000 -- $4,875,000
Buscaglia mis-stated when he said they converted base salary. They converted a guaranteed bonus. Not sure what's difficult to understand.
I stand corrected, I misunderstood what was originally reported and what Joe was trying to communicate.
Makes sense, thanks for clarifying. (and I can tell you certainly understand cap 😀).
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16 minutes ago, Tuco said:
LOL really? Bates had a $1.5 million salary that was converted to signing bonus? So now he has zero base salary for 2022? Come on man.
Not sure if you're trying to be snarky, or just don't understand cap rules.
Converting salary to bonus is a typical move, to create additional cap room in current season. He had a $1.5 base salary (fully guaranteed in 2022), according to Joe they converted it all to bonus. So Bates will receive that money immediately, and Bills get to spread the $1.5m across his 4 yr deal (hence saving the approx $1.2m).
Not sure what's difficult to understand.
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3 minutes ago, Tuco said:
Here's the deal -
First of all, the confusion starts right in the beginning when Busgaglia tweets the Bills converted $1.5 million of base salary into signing bonus.
WRONG!!! Bates didn't have a $3.0 million base salary for 2022 that they just converted $1.5 million of. His $3.5 million cap hit originally listed was in the form of $1.5 million base salary, $1.5 million guaranteed option/roster bonus, and the $500,000 prorated from his original $2.0 million signing bonus.
Let's get to the $1.5 million guaranteed option/roster bonus. Whether it's called option or roster is irrelevant, the fact that it's guaranteed is what's important. Because the bonus is guaranteed, by rule the team has the option when the bonus is due to convert it to guaranteed salary and charge it all to the current season, or to convert it to signing bonus and prorate the cap hit over the life of the contract.
This is a very common tactic, but usually used in the 2nd year of a contract. Look at Stefon Diggs new contract. It came with a $16 million guaranteed bonus in year 2 that will automatically be converted next year and prorated. In Diggs' case it's so the team can split up his signing bonus proration. They can only prorate for 5 years so they give Diggs a certain amount of bonus this year and prorate it for the next five, then give him more guaranteed bonus next year and prorate it through years 2-6. This type of thing is nothing new. It's a great way to give the player a bigger bonus yet still keep the cap hit low in year one. And teams have been doing it for years.
Now back to Bates. As I mentioned, the contract the Bills matched called for a $1.5 million bonus to be paid this year. The only reason a team would normally add such a bonus is so they can convert and prorate when the time comes. Now it's entirely possible the Bears did it on purpose to try to leverage Bates away. If they head simply made the $1.5 Mill bonus part of the initial signing bonus then Bates cap charge for '22 would have been the $2.375 million figure it is now instead of the $3.5 million figure the Bills had to match at the time.
Was this a Bears trick to try to make it harder for us to match? Possibly. Maybe even probably. But the important part of all this is that despite what Buscaglia's tweet says, the Bills didn't "restructure" anything. They matched the contract as it was written and then converted a guaranteed bonus into signing bonus. It's possible the Bears had written it so the conversion would be automatic on a certain date, in which case the Bills doing this could actually have simply been a formality.
Regardless, just so we all know, the Bills did not "restructure" any "base salary." They simply converted a guaranteed bonus into a signing bonus, which teams are free to do at any time and was probably the Bears plan to do also.
And now a word about a somewhat related subject. I've seen a lot of people here mention they thought you couldn't restructure a contract for a year. Well that's not exactly true. The CBA says that after a contract is renegotiated (note that says renegotiated, not restructured) to give the player more money, then it can't be renegotiated again for a full year. That's different than a restructure where the money stays the same, and basically means if a player with an existing contract is given a new contract for more money, they can't do it again for at least a year. But it doesn't apply to an actual restructure where the player's money stays the same.
Go Bills.
Long post, not sure it's accurate either.
Bates had a $1.5m base salary for 2022, that's what Beane just converted; hence saving the exact amount against the cap that Joe B reported.
Again, base salary was converted, not a guaranteed bonus.
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22 minutes ago, Logic said:
People keep saying that every contract move we make is because “a signing is coming!”.
Maybe it is, maybe it isn’t, but either way…
Does anyone out there honestly still believe that Beane ISN’T gonna sign a cornerback at some point? I think there’s just about ZERO chance that they go into the season with just Dane Jackson and a rookie as serious outside corner candidates.
Agree complelety. We are at least going to sign a FA, just depends if its a mid level ($3-5M range) or top end (probably 2 left, in Gilmore or trade for Bradberry, unless something unforeseen). Gilmore likely asking for something that could cost $8-12m in cap and Bradberrys current contract is ridiculous ($21m cap hit, would require reworking/extension).
If our front office/coaches, think...
1. two or more off these are true: Tre ready by early season, believe Dane can be a #2 corner, and/or a rookie can step in as a starter or contribute immediately. Then likely we look for a mid level type.
OR
2. two or more off these are true: flipped scenario above. then we could go after a Gilmore or Bradberry.
I'd think scenario 1 is more likely, ie: wait until after draft (draft a corner in the round 1-3 range), and then sign a mid level guy.
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Jahan Dotson, WR
Kenneth Walker, RB
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14 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
Agree Watson is not a fit from the slot. We have two slot guys IMO - Crowder on a one year deal and McKenzie. We have nothing outside other than Diggs and Davis. If one of them goes down Jake Kumerow is on the football field. And we just don't have a definitive answer on Gabe. I am a fan but what if he can't handle a full time #2 workload. What then?
I am not banging the table for Watson. I think there will likely be other options there at #25. But I can get myself to a position where based on the board that is a pick I would support.
Also when I grade players I don't just grade them as fits for the Bills. And generally speaking outside guys have more value than slots.
I guess it comes down to whether you think Dotson can play both inside and outside, which I think he can and he proved at Penn St against some solid competition.
I think his versatility will be valued by our offensive staff, guess we shall see.
I just can't get on board drafting a guy (like Watson), who is highly likely relegated to play outside only, unless he's can't miss. I'm not thinking he is, he's the definition of boom/bust. Not when we have Davis still. Davis may not have proven himself, enough yet, but think we should avoid blocking him from seeing the field (ie: Sanders, last yr).
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4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
That is partly why I hated the Emmanuel Sanders deal. We should have known by now is Gabe a legit #2 receiver. I still think he can be but we don't know because we pissed about for half a season with a geriatric running about out there and Gabe on the bench.
The worry I have is if Gabe isn't up to it as a full time workload or if he or Stef go down we have Jake Kumerow playing outside receiver. That is not something I ever wish to see.
Interesting you say this, then say Dotson is more of a slot Wr type. Isn't that an added bonus? Watson ran very few routes from the slot, I don't think he's a fit there. Which would essentially give us 2 strictly outside guys (Watson and Davis). Forcing us to play Diggs in the slot, if we put Watson, Davis and Diggs in 3 wr sets. Not sure how that adds value, then burns a 1st round pick.
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25 minutes ago, Vickveto said:
No one has really argued or debated he is the most athletic wr. I’m hearing a lot of josh Allen pre draft. Small school and production. I see special.
Does he have versatility to play slot and outside? To me he doesn't, which means we relegate Diggs to slot anytime we would have him, Diggs and Davis in 3 wr sets.
Not a fan of this.
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I'll give 2...Big Ten alum. Give me speed and let's see anyone stop this offense.
1st round: Dotson. Playmaker who can play in the slot, move outside, has a 17 ypc average. 2nd best deep ball WR coming out in this class. Let him continue to add strength and learn alongside Diggs. This will be a trio of Wrs (Diggs, Davis, Dotson),would be extremely difficult to defend.
2nd round: keep adding to the offensive playmakers, and get Kenneth Walker RB. He is a similar RB to Motor, but with a completely different top gear...great vision, he hopefully makes it to end of round 2.
We lacked offensive team speed last season. Take some pressure off Josh and get some guys who can make the homerun plays.
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1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:
I think Dotson is a slot only in the NFL because he struggles to get off press. That is my big concern with him. I mean I don't have them miles apart. Watson is my WR6, Dotson is my WR7. But to me if you are drafting Dotson you are drafting him to play in the slot. I have both as high 2nds. Dotson higher floor, Watson definitely higher ceiling IMO.
Fair enough, I think he got alot stronger heading into senior season, so I see him having ability to really flourish in a system like ours (moving all around). Especially think he could become a future WR1, learning beside Diggs.
Unfortunately I think the Packers will use the acquired pick from Raiders to draft him at #21.
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1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:
I have been doing some re-watches over the weekend and I moved Watson up AGAIN on my board. He is now my 23rd overall player. I can see a scenario where he is the guy I want at #25.
Just my opinion, but Dotson is a smoother route runner/fluid and will be the better NFL prospect.
Watson obviously didn't play in a pass heavy offense, and he played at a much lower level, so there's some "projection" of course. Not the type of player I want in Round 1, if other proven guys are there.
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Give me Jahan Dotson 1000x before Watson, at least in Round 1. If we wait until Round 2, Watson would be a nice trade up candidate.
Dotson is the 2nd best deep ball WR in this class, and if you watch him play, reminds of AB (w/o the drama).
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5 minutes ago, Scorp83 said:
What I meant was Beane said we have no more money….so yes if we had it…then signing him will cheapin his contract but I think it’s better to wait the year because guy’s like Shaq Lawson, Crowder, OJ Howard, Ect…will free up some cash once they’re contracts run it’s course in a year.
Exactly! Poyer play hasn’t dropped off & I think he has another 4 more years in him to play at a high level.
Again confused, because it's not like we need to come up with "new money" to sign Poyer, actually extending him would likely create more cap room in 2022.
I think Beanes comment was about signing any new FAs, at least as of now. They have decent wiggle room available, if they want to extend or convert a couple players salaries to bonus $s. Beane is very methodical/calculated with his approach, so I trust he will budget accordingly.
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10 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:
Not sure about the whole "Don't know what you've got 'til it's gone." comment because Ive only ever seen nothing but admiration, praise, and appreciation for the duo for Hyde and Poyer from fans, coaches, Beane, teammates, etc. I think everyone knows exactly what we have, which is one of the top safety tandems in the NFL for the past 4 years and guys who should have more pro bowls to go along with that. So, I am confused to who this comment is directed at given just about everyone knows just how important they are and have been.
I also am not convinced this year will the tandems last year together. I recognize it certainly is possible, and these types of things happen all the time once you have a big QB contract on the books where tough decisions have to be made with higher priced vets nearing the end of their peak. With our safeties both being over 30, its not out of the question they take the cap savings by trying to find a young replacement for one of them.
But, the cap is also expected to go up a lot next year, so I think its premature to start looking at guys like Poyer not being retained. If he has a year this season like he did last year, I think Beane will be more inclined to keep Poyer here another couple seasons. if there are any signs of slowing down, then that would obviously increase the odds we don't bring him back.
Personally, I think Poyer's future with the Bills may just be tied to Edmunds future. If Edmunds has a big year this season and Beane decides to resign him, I think that would potentially cost us Poyer. But if we elect to trade Edmunds or let him walk in FA (or somehow sign him to a much cheaper deal than people think he will get on the open market), then Poyers chance at a return go way up IMHO. I seriously doubt they will be comfortable losing both Poyer and Edmunds in the same offseason, both those guys are on-field leaders of this defense.
Agree with this.
I also think they should try tying him and Hyde to same contract length.
To me, it's the duo not individual safety, that makes this tandem so good. Their communication, instincts, ability to both play a FS/SS role, mix up coverages, etc is what is so special. I don't think we get that with 1 and not the other.
So I'm trying to keep the duo together for 2 more years.
Aside, i do like Hamlin and thought he'd go in the 4th last year, thought we got good value.
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13 minutes ago, Scorp83 said:
I see another extension coming for him, Poyer & Hyde are McDermott’s people! Like those 2 helped build that entire defensive vision for him, no way he let’s that go right now! He rode Kyle Williams until Kyle was ready to go, I think Poyer & Hyde as well will get that same respect type of treatment. I just think right now, they can’t give him an extension, gotta let some of these 1 year deals falls off after this year & get some of that money rolling back into the cap.
Agree with 1st part, but you lost me on the extension/needing 1 yr deals to expire. If we extend him, it would likely open more cap space this season...allowing us to potentially target a vet corner and/or draft class money.
Unless I'm misreading your post, it makes sense to extend now if we plan to anyways.
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4 hours ago, SCBills said:
If we trade up for a CB I’ll be pretty disgusted. I could see a trade-up for Olave or Williams though.. those guys may not make it to 25, but could be within trade-up reach and would be that missing speed piece on offense.
I don’t want a CB in RD1, but if Andrew Booth is there at 25, I wouldn’t hate it.
If that were to happen, RD’s 2-4 should all be directed to Offense.
If we go Offense RD1, I’m sure we’ll go CB in RD2 or RD3.. RD4 at the latest if we get a reliable vet before the Draft.
I don’t think Tre’s return time affects any of this. We need 2 more corners regardless. I’d venture to guess that their view of Dane Jackson affects what we do at cornerback far more.
Agree, except I'm a big fan of Dotson and think he might be there at 25. The potential issue is that alot of teams in that 15-24 range will be considering WRs, also will be interesting how the inflated/recent WR contracts may impact draft strategy (ie: extra year of control for Rd1).
Corner in Round 2 is ideal, IMO, someone who can compete with Dane and potentially hold down a spot until Tre is ready.
Then focus on OL, rounds 3-4, rest of draft can be finding value/role players. Wouldn't be a surprise to see us move around in the 3rd-5th range, I think that will be a sweet spot for value this year at certain positions.
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6 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:
No. Imo, we’re woefully low on CBs and need to Draft at least 2 while adding at least another in FA.
The position sees a very high rate of injury and nearly every team has great receivers. Personally, I anticipate Tre being at or very near the start of the season, but otherwise, all we have currently are jags.
We "need" 1 starter, until Tre is ready. This defense can play well with a Dane Jackson, while we still have 2 all-pro safeties lining up behind him.
I think we draft a corner, likely early, but would be shocked if we drafted 2 then also signed a FA (assuming you mean, a veteran). We have barely any cap space, let alone roster spots: Tre, Dane, early draft pick, Taron, Neal and Cam Lewis is likely our corner back group.
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IMO, the biggest offseason needs:
1. Get more physical in the trenches: DTs-check, Shaq helps run D, Von is great, and Saffold improves 1 G spot. I think we will take another G, in the 2nd-4th range to compete with Bates.
2. Dynamic pass rusher: obviously Von checks this box. I could see us drafting a speed rusher type mid to late, or possibly bringing back Mario or Jerry if price is right.
3. Speed at skill positions: brought back McKenzie, and added Crowder. Like many, think our 1st two picks will be focused on "boundary" players, specifically athletic WR and CB.
4. Backup Qbs: now set
5. Get cheaper/less costly depth: with Josh contract about to get expensive, and key decisions with other young talent, we needed to shed our high priced depth...check. I think we could look for LB, T and S in the middle rounds for depth and S/T.
I'd be going into draft targeting speed/skill guys early, then focus on trenches and depth.
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15 minutes ago, benderbender said:
The experiment is over. Can’t help feeling underwhelmed. Would really like to know what really happened.
Wasn't his "free" international player designation over? Not sure there is much to uncover....he is a talented athlete but FO didn't see enough to let him be part of the 90 heading to camp. Pretty simple.
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6 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:
You've got OL way too high after signing Rodger Saffold, retaining Ryan Bates long term, re-signing Ike Boettger, and also signing Greg Mancz. Starting Line is set for this season and 4/5 of them are on long term contracts.
Maybe a mid round pick or two for development. But none of Dawkins, Saffold, Morse, Bates, or Brown are being benched and you don't spend your first rounder on a rotational Lineman who won't see much playing time in Year 1.
Bates contract is in between starter and high end backup $s.
Boettger likely will not be ready until mid to late season. Mancz isn't guaranteed anything, he's been "meh". Cody Ford doesn't fit the mold of what our new line coach typically looks for, so he might be on his way out
Not to mention, we have Tommy Doyle slotted as our only T backup as of now.
Anytime you bring in a new oline coach, and a new O coordinator, anything is on the table and they will likely look to fill with players that fit their desired skillets.
I agree with @GreggTX, we need OL, and could see us drafting 2 guys.
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Plenty of vet/1yr rental types available in FA. Perhaps we are in conversations with a couple, and waiting to see what unfolds in the draft.
We likely need 2 corners, assuming Tre begins on the PUP list. Dane, 1st or 2nd rounder, mid round pick or FA, and Neal is likely our path ahead on the outside. Along with Cam, Nick McLeod (who they seemed to like) and likely other UDFAs will likely fight for 1 spot.
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NFL Draft Rumors
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Willis to Steelers will happen, if he's on the board. Steelers might even move up a few spots for him.
He's exactly what Tomlin wants, and with Colberts last year as their GM, I think he will look for the next franchise QB to add onto his legacy there.