[Pass rusher. A huge need not being talked about enough]

1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

I’ll be happy to debate.  Let me know when you want to have a productive one vs. throwing out childish insults about McDermott.

pretty certain Gunner wasn't calling you out...instead Mrags

[Pass rusher. A huge need not being talked about enough]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Is it really so hard to understand that good teams w good OLs don't give up as many sacks ffs

You're talking out of both sides of your mouth.  Speaking of inconsistency...

[Pass rusher. A huge need not being talked about enough]

13 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

They had the 4th most sacks in the league regular season 2023 and then just evaporated in the postseason like always

 

That is not a talent issue

Sure, but it's worth noting:

1. Regular season: we played 8 games against bottom 10 teams in sacks allowed, including 2 games VS absolute worst

 

2. Postseason:

   a. Steelers were top 10, in fewest sacks allowed (mostly due to quick passing attack, and got better/Top 5 during their last few games).  

   b. Chiefs: were a Top 2 team, behind us, for fewest sacks allowed.  Going against a ragtag group, non even close to full strength/regular season health

 

Not excuses, just a complete picture.  Competition matters, obviously we play better teams in postseason. 

 

Point is our team wasn't healthy this postseason AND once Ed was ineffective vs KC, nobody else was winning 1-1s.

 

We need either Von to get back to somewhere close to his prior form AND AJE to take another step.  OR we somehow find better talent than AJE this draft, which is possible in Rd 1

[Gonzo Mock Draft 1.0 2 Rounder]

Worthy is my favorite WR in this draft, that we could possibly get at 28.

 

Speed/YAC/Explosion.  He's a Zay Flowers type impact on our offense.

 

I think if the draft plays out, as this mock, we try moving up for Latu.

[Pass rusher. A huge need not being talked about enough]

5 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

You may be right. But we'll worry about it then. For this year with Groot (who I'm pretty sure the regime sees as less than a concern than you), Von, Epenesa, and Toohill and with money coming in June to address it further if Beane sees it necessary - it'll have been properly addressed for this year.

 

Save for something unlikely happening like Laiatu Latu falling into our laps, there isn't a DE worth taking at 28. 

Alot resting on Von returning close to form.  AJE got better LY, but still inconsistent. Toohill is the equivalent of Shaq Lawson, more athletic.  

 

Will depend how draft goes, but I like:

Latu: if he's there in the early 20s, worth a trade up

 

Chop Robinson: biggest bust potential, but he had a VERY good win rate/just didn't finish with sacks.  Reminds me a bit of Jerry Hughes.  I'd take him at 28

 

Darius Robinson: at 28 might be a little early, he's a tweener but he'll be a good player with some team.  I'd consider him at 28, but definitely go for him if we traded back into 2nd round

 

Isaac, Kneeland, and Trice: 3 guys who could be there at 60 and add value.  Problem with them, is I don't see them much better than AJE (more insurance if Von completely falls apart)

 

Basically 2-3 guys in the 1st, that could make an immediate impact and possibly be around when we pick.  

 

Depends what Beane sees in WR class.  Could go DL in 1st, then move up for say Keon Coleman or Leggette in 2nd.  OR, they might really like Mitchell or Worthy and jump on them a 28.  Then see what is left in RD2, possibly DT is better value then at 60.  Then go your route of FA, post draft, for a 1 year rental DE.

 

I'm fine with any option, we have alot of potential moves and I agree with OP that DL pass rush is just as big or bigger need than WR

[Bills sign C/G Will Clapp]

Good depth, likely competing with Anderson and a rookie, for 2 IOL backup spots

[What starting spots still need to be filled?]

27 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I'd say safety is a bigger starting need than DE. AJE is higher quality player than anyone we have on the roster at safety - we have three backups (Edwards, Rapp and Lewis) and a bottom of the roster player (Hamlin). I think FS and SS are both "starter needed" positions and DE is an improve position.   

 

Now I take the point totally that defensive end is just a higher value position than safety. That is definitely true. So maybe turning a 6/10 starter at defensive end into a 7/10 starter gives you overall a bigger bump that turning a 4/10 starter at safety into a 7/10 starter. But then you have to look at the strength of the draft too and if you say our two biggest needs are WR and DE and you take the view that they must be addressed with the first two picks then you need to pick defensive end at #28. Because there is not a lot of depth to the class. I basically have it as:

 

Tier 1:

Turner; Latu; Verse - immediate year 1 impact starters

Tier 2: 

Chop Robinson - boom and bust but impact player ceiling

Tier 3:

Braswell, Trice, Isaac - potential starters but not impact players early

Tier 4:

Elliss, Darius Robinson - developmental players (Elliss because he is raw and Robinson because he hasn't really been a proper edge rusher)

 

They are the only guys I'd consider drafting on the first two days and there are only a couple of others - Kneeland and Booker I'd take before the end of round 5. Every other EDGE in this class that I have watched is a 6/7/UDFA to me. Point being it isn't a great class.  Only those tier 1 guys and possibly the question mark on Chop would be upgrades on AJE as a rookie IMO. Turner and Verse will be long gone. Latu could slide because of injury history and Chop probably will be there. But if they don't address it at #28 they should pass at #60 IMO. I just don't think the value is there in this class. Get by with Groot, Von, AJE, Toohill and Jonathan in 2024 and hope the opportunity to upgrade is there in 2025. 

 

To be clear I am not arguing for a defensive end at #28. I am firmly on the WR train (though if Latu falls I'd be tempted). I'm just making the point that I don't necessarily think it is as easy as WR and DE in any order with the first two picks just because those are the two premium positions where we most need help. 

Great points, I 100% agree we don't "reach" at 28 if the value isn't there OR at 60.

 

But to be clear, I think the value will meet the need at both picks.

 

I have Darius in Tier 2, but I value your opinion.  I think there's more potential with Chop, than Darius, as well.  I see a slight chance Lutu slides to the early-mid 20s.  Beane might wanna trade up if that happens.

 

Otherwise, I'm in agreement let the board come to you.  I still think we will find a DE and WR, at 28 and 60, or even if we move back, that will be very good players/value will be there.  

 

Regarding DT/S, much easier to hide a Safety weakness.  Behind Ed and Jones, I like Austin Johnson (if we sign him) but still think we need a pure 3-tech behind Ed that can add some interior push.  I agree on S, we have 2 high end backups and 1 jack of all trades backup (Cam), I was hoping we went a different direction in FA, but confident McD knows what he wants.  I think the Edwards/Rapp combo is just a slight notch below Hyde/Poyer, Hyde lost a massive step and every hit was a huge risk for his neck.  Poyer lost a step, still better than both Rapp/Edwards though but not by a lot.  I think we can get by, especially if we improve at DL/pass rush

[What starting spots still need to be filled?]

Biggest need is pass rush, the Rd1 WR fans won't like that though.

 

I'd breakdown into "starter needed", "should look to improve", "depth needed":

 

Starters (2): WR-X, DE

Improve (4): LG/C, DT3, FS, RB2

Depth (5): T, IOL, DT, LB, CB.  Highest need is OL depth IMO, then secondary and then DT4

 

Coincidentally, that's 11 players=11 picks.  I'd be shocked if our first 2 picks aren't DE/WR, in either order.  After that, BPA in the improvement category, I'd think DT3 has slightly higher impact than the others (and RB2 could be a FA post draft)

 

This might be the first year that Beane trades back (ie: get a 2nd and 3rd).  We might be best off on this path, if we find a trading partner.  Theoretically, could then go:

Rd2: WR-X (tier 2 of guys, which is like a 1st in any other year), DE (tier 2, which would be all we need if Von rebounds)

Rd 3: either Dt or S- I'd prefer a DT, given it's importance in rotation

 

That would fill out our top needs quite nicely, and balance out the DL/pass rush and WR.  Just hope Edwards/Rapp overachieve, or we hit on a S in Rd4+

[Bills sign a safety!!!! Mike Edwards a Bill]

Just now, Warriorspikes51 said:

not a single post mentioning the inside info we can gain from the Chiefs Defense! 

Inside info on what?  

 

These aren't PeeWee coaches.  They analyze and understand schematics to the extreme level, they don't need "inside info". 

 

KC has a better/faster defense than we've had.  Snead, Jones, McDuffie, faster safeties, etc. 

 

We have talented guys too, but our lack of a true game wrecker up front is the main difference, then KC had two top DBs too.

[Bills sign a safety!!!! Mike Edwards a Bill]

This is the definition of a backup/ST player.

 

As of now, we have 2 backups (Lewis, Edwards), a fringe starter/better used in subpackages (Rapp), and a likely to be cut player (Hamlin).

 

I was hoping we'd sign a solid starter in FA, possible we still do, but looks like we might be spending an early pick.

[CURTIS SAMUEL A BILL]

3 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Well, devil, I don't think there is a DE that fits your criteria outside of Latu. I don't think Verse is that fella, and I sure don't think it's Chop or the Mizzou Robinson. The defensive difference maker you are looking for won't be there at #28. I don't think you're finding him in this draft, frankly. Edge is about the worst position, in terms of numbers and quality. Reaching at the bottom of the first for an answer to lack of a dominant defensive presence is not an answer if its driven more by contemplation of a bare cupboard after 2024 than intrinsic value of the available players.

Also fast, with good hands, and fashion sense.

Agree, I'm not advocating a "reach" at DE.  I however think that the Robinsons, Chop and Darius will be excellent picks.  Bring something different in skill sets, but both can "win" matchups and create havoc.

 

Nobody knows which prospects will prosper, so I won't waste time arguing merits of one versus another.  But I'll continue to say that we need DE/pass rush help badly.  Just a bit more than WR, IMO, after the Samuel pickup.  Player evaluation needs to meet the draft slot, but we're a better/more rounded team, if the scouting/evaluation has a DE=a WR at 28....you take the DE and come back with a WR in round 2 (potentially moving up, which I'm mentioned in numerous other posts)

[CURTIS SAMUEL A BILL]

6 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

The problem is we have constantly thrown ample resources at the defense, and they still fall apart in the playoffs year after year. I agree that championship teams typically have better defensive showings than what the Bills have fielded in the playoffs. But it's getting to a point where you have to look beyond the players. We keep switching out the players on defense but the result is always the same. Against the Chiefs this year the defense arguably turned in its worst playoff performance of the McDermott era when accounting for the caliber of the opponent. So it is getting worse, not better.

 

I hope McDermott is taking a long hard look at himself this offseason. That's where the big defensive improvement is going to come from, not from further imbalancing the defense vs offense resource investment.

 

On offense I have felt that the problem is the exact opposite of what I just described. The offense under Allen regularly shows up in the playoffs and performs above its regular season standard. I haven't had many qualms with offensive coaching in those games. Instead I have observed that a few critical plays a game are swung in our opponent's direction because of player error. A dropped pass here, an OL breakdown there. And every one of these player mistakes is magnified because the offense is being forced into a shootout due to the aforementioned defensive failures.

 

So I don't believe adding more defensive players is going to solve our fundamental problem on that side of the ball, whereas adding more offensive players will solve our fundamental problem on that side of the ball. Kincaid came in as a rookie and had an immediate positive impact, breaking a couple franchise records along the way and scoring a TD in the playoffs. I'm still waiting for a highly drafted defensive player to have that kind of impact. At this point the Bills should just focus on making a move that they know will have a measurable positive impact on the team, and drafting a WR high in a WR-rich draft is too obvious an answer not to do it.

I'll play devils advocate.

 

Disagree with your point about McDermott coaching tendencies/philosophy, and bad defense vs Chiefs in playoffs.  We had WAY too many injuries to compete on defense, on every level-especially missing our top 2 LBs against a team with a dominant TE and Coach's use of LBs being paramount.

 

Each postseason, except for 2020, we've entered with too many injuries to key players:

1. 2021: Tre

2. 2022: Von, Tre still hobbled, Micah, Daquan

3. 2023: Milano, Bernard, Daquan coming off a torn pec, Rasul playing at 75%

 

Problem is injuries and not having a dominant player on defense.  Easier to overcome injuries, if we have a dominant guy healthy. Instead, we have several very good guys and when 1-2 miss, then we're SOL.

 

Our offense plays lights our because of Josh.  Eventually we need to find an equivalent defensive output to rely on.  And to me, that's what Beane has been chasing (Von signing, DL investments), and he should keep going that route until he hits.

 

With such a deep WR class, there will be very good WRs sitting there in round 2.  Usually is anyhow in each class, it's about proper scouting/etc but it's easier to hit when more talent is there.  

 

At DL, such a weak class overall, but there are 1-2 guys who could be there in Round 1 that could be a huge help.

 

Diggs, Samuel, a 2nd round WR with deep ball skills, Shakir, Kincaid, Knox would already be an upgrade on LY and likely our best group since 2020.  I just don't think we need a RD1 WR, not after investing in Kincaid LY and Samuel, to go with current group.  Our DE room is going to look bare after 2024 season, with Von likely gone and AJE isn't any more than a DE3- need more juice up front.

[CURTIS SAMUEL A BILL]

2 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

There isn't going to be a top Tier DE at 28,there will be a top wr at 28.

 

This is the year to draft Diggs replacement.  We did the whole overload picks on the DL.  WR needs to be the pick at 28.

You are correct good sir.

There will be "close to equal" talent in RD2 at WR, if we move up to 50.  WR6-8 at 28, vs WR 10-14 in RD2 isn't much drop-off.

 

At DE, both Robinsons are tier 2 talents to me (potential).  Different skill sets, Chop brings the elite athleticism, while the other is more physical and can bounce inside too.  Either is worthy of 28

[CURTIS SAMUEL A BILL]

1 minute ago, gonzo1105 said:

DT is by far the biggest need. DE we at least have 3 solid ones in Rousseau, Miller, and Epenesa. We literally have 2 DTs on the roster right now. 

Miller is a wild card, he either gets close to prior form OR he is washed up.  I think he'll rebound, but he's not going to be what he was in 2022 pre injury.  He's a rotational piece to me.

 

Von is also gone after this year, and AJE isn't a DE2 (he could be, but isn't yet). Groot isn't locked up longterm either.  I say DE is something that could impact the team the most.  

 

DT, I'm fine with Jones and Ed.  Find a viable backup in FA (either at 1 tech or 3 tech), draft the other later rounds.

[CURTIS SAMUEL A BILL]

Just now, gonzo1105 said:

See I like these convos to me if you put Samuel in the slot which is possible than Shakir isn’t playing because last years first round pick Kincaid needs a higher % of snaps than being a traditional Y.

 

it makes more sense to play Samuel outside so Shakir and Kincaid can do what they do best. 

Agree with both sides of discussion, Samuel is versatile piece.  But another reason we don't "need" a RD1 WR.  

 

With Diggs, Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid and Knox, that's already a solid group.  A WR in RD2, of the deepest draft at WR in history, is all we need.

[CURTIS SAMUEL A BILL]

2 minutes ago, Success said:

 

I'm thinking this too.  The more I think about it - we have that capital to trade up in round 2, and now it feels like we can really beef up the D-line in round 1 & still get a good receiver w/ the 2nd pick, given how deep this class is.

 

Exactly.  DE and WR are both equal needs but I think DE could have biggest impact on success of team.

 

We don't have a top tier DL player.  We have 1 tier two player (Ed), a tier 3 guy (Groot), tier 3-4 in AJE and Von. 

 

We need another DL player in the tier 2 category, or ideally potential to be an all-pro.  We won't have success late in playoffs with what we have now, just not good enough. 

 

We arent in position to get an elite player at DL on draft, but both Robinsons have different skill sets, and bring potential to be tier 2 guys relatively quickly.

[CURTIS SAMUEL A BILL]

5 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

There it is! We have our baseline WR2. Now draft the best WR available in the 1st round and we are in business.

Exactly baseline WR2/complimentary piece to the WR room.

 

I mentioned earlier today in the Armstead thread, that Beane is likely targeting Samuel/MVS, then going DL in RD1.  Wr in RD2 (trade up to high 40s/#50, to get ahead of Steelers).

 

Will see if draft plays out like that.  But hoping we can get our starting FS before draft, and a backup DT.

[Draft night I can see this coming]

2 minutes ago, SCBills said:

1) This isn't happening

 

2) People seem to have zero clue of the draft value chart when it comes to our Day 3 picks.  The only way we're materially moving up in Round 1 of this Draft is by packaging 28 and next years RD1..  We only have one Day 2 pick and our RD4's can move us up a couple spots each, at most. 

 

 

Agreed.  Those day 3 picks will be valuable for moving up in Rd 2 though.

 

Say to jump ahead of Steelers, move from Pick 60 to Pick 50.  Both Steelers and Bills have very similar positional needs: WR, Safety, Center

[Arik Armstead released, signs with Jax]

Just now, BigAl2526 said:

I'm not saying the Bills can't do it.  I just think that the Bills might think they want to spend their free agent dollars elsewhere, like safety.  There are still good safeties available.  I really don't think Taylor Rapp and Cam Lewis are starters in Buffalo's defense while Buffalo has starters on the interior of their defensive line.

Exactly.  We get better value investing those FA $s/remaining cap on a WR (such as Samuel/MVS) and a starting caliber FS.

1 minute ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

got to think outside the box

 

Arik & Rousseau at DE against the run.

Arik & Ed inside against the pass.

 

He is fully capable of playing anywhere on our DL and has done so with the Niners

Solid logic why a versatile DL would help.  I mentioned a couple RD1 DL prospects above, who could help immediately.  Team likes bumping Groot inside on passing downs as well, so that's an existing option.

 

Just think a low-tier WR2 and starting FS are wiser investments, with remaining cap $s.  

 

Go get that DL prospect early, and WR in RD2 (in one of the deepest classes ever)

[Arik Armstead released, signs with Jax]

Just now, Logic said:

We may very well not land him because the Texans have more money and he played for DeMeco Ryans before, but...

Based on two historically reliable sources, the Bills absolutely ARE going after Armstead currently, as we speak. It's happening.

May not land him, but they're damned sure trying.

Sorry, should have said I don't think Beane will get into a bidding war.  I think he has a value on Erik and doesn't "go after him too aggressively", IMO/no source. 

 

Personally, I'd rather invest an early pick on DL...knowing Von is likely gone after this year, and AJE is only on a 2-yr deal/isn't a DE2.

 

WR is so deep we can find a starter in RD2

[Arik Armstead released, signs with Jax]

I'm not sure we go after Armstead, IMO Texans will land him.  Because of $ and age/injury, I think Beane stays put.

 

As a possibility, I'm wondering if Beane strategy is to go DL round 1 (which will initially trigger some anger by fans) and trade up in Round 2 for a WR.

 

DL: Chop Robinson, Darius Robinson (who profiles similar to Armstead, inside/out versatilty) are two guys to watch

 

WR: such a deep draft, Beane might not see much difference between WR5-6 (which is likely our Rd1 option, if we stay put) & WR8-12 (if we move up in Rd 2)

 

I don't see us using all eleven picks, so Rd 2 is ripe for moving up.  Or we stay put and see WR12ish at our pick.

 

Sign a guy like Samuel or MVS, who could be a WR2b (complimentary weapon), add a Rd2 Wr.  Diggs/Kincaid/FA/Rd 2 Wr/Shakir/Knox....would be a nice collective group. 

 

DL: Oliver, Jones, Groot, Von, AJE, 1 more FA DT, Rd1 DE, Late round DT 

[Bills sign Nicholas Morrow]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Yeah and I was hoping the likes of Rapp and Lewis and Morrow would be filled in by those cheap draft picks, not veteran contracts. Obviously the entire depth of the roster isn't going to be just rookies but can't these sorts of signings wait until we know what our draft class looks like?

The Rapp signing is my only issue thus far, as I was hoping for a legit starter via FA.  Perhaps they still have a plan there.

 

Lewis is super cheap, provides best ROI for his familiarity with system and position versatility/ST play.

 

Re: Morrow, all I can think is there could be concern with: 1. Injuries occurring again AND/OR 2. Dorian might not pick things up yet in Year 2.

 

It's a fact that the injury bug hit us hard LY, especially at LB.  But after seeing what happened against KC, I don't think they wanted a rookie in the LB4 spot (especially a late pick) and Dorian hasn't proved anything, except his athleticism.  McDs Def philosophy revolves around strong LB play.  Having a dependable LB3 is a good investment, given recent injury luck and what we have on roster.

[DaQuan Re-Signed - 2 yrs 16M]

27 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Classic Beane move of getting pieces in place before the draft.

 

The DL still needs work, and I'm sure we'll be drafting DT early. But we at least have a starting 4 in place if the ***** hits the fan and we cant get our targets.

 

DT and WR in rounds 1 and 2 in whichever order depending who is available.

Re: draft/round 1 and 2

 

If right guys are there, I think our most impactful strategy should be: RD1 WR and RD2 OC/OG.  

 

With Daquan back, I think we can find a 1 tech DT in Rd 4-6.  Same for DE4 slot.

 

I think Beane will grab 1 more DT and DE in FA, sets up depth-wise heading into draft.

[Free agency tracker]

1 minute ago, TheWeatherMan said:

Did you watch the last 8 games of the season?  

Yeah and he was fighting thru injury it looked like

[Free agency tracker]

Just now, TheWeatherMan said:

We need a WR 1, we all ready have a WR 2 and WR 3

Cookie? 

Diggs is WR1.  Maybe not a top 5 WR anymore, but he's still a top 15-20 guy.  By definition, that's WR1