MasterStrategist
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Posts posted by MasterStrategist
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2 minutes ago, SCBills said:
1) This isn't happening
2) People seem to have zero clue of the draft value chart when it comes to our Day 3 picks. The only way we're materially moving up in Round 1 of this Draft is by packaging 28 and next years RD1.. We only have one Day 2 pick and our RD4's can move us up a couple spots each, at most.
Agreed. Those day 3 picks will be valuable for moving up in Rd 2 though.
Say to jump ahead of Steelers, move from Pick 60 to Pick 50. Both Steelers and Bills have very similar positional needs: WR, Safety, Center
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Just now, BigAl2526 said:
I'm not saying the Bills can't do it. I just think that the Bills might think they want to spend their free agent dollars elsewhere, like safety. There are still good safeties available. I really don't think Taylor Rapp and Cam Lewis are starters in Buffalo's defense while Buffalo has starters on the interior of their defensive line.
Exactly. We get better value investing those FA $s/remaining cap on a WR (such as Samuel/MVS) and a starting caliber FS.
1 minute ago, Warriorspikes51 said:
got to think outside the boxArik & Rousseau at DE against the run.
Arik & Ed inside against the pass.
He is fully capable of playing anywhere on our DL and has done so with the Niners
Solid logic why a versatile DL would help. I mentioned a couple RD1 DL prospects above, who could help immediately. Team likes bumping Groot inside on passing downs as well, so that's an existing option.
Just think a low-tier WR2 and starting FS are wiser investments, with remaining cap $s.
Go get that DL prospect early, and WR in RD2 (in one of the deepest classes ever)
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Just now, Logic said:
We may very well not land him because the Texans have more money and he played for DeMeco Ryans before, but...
Based on two historically reliable sources, the Bills absolutely ARE going after Armstead currently, as we speak. It's happening.
May not land him, but they're damned sure trying.Sorry, should have said I don't think Beane will get into a bidding war. I think he has a value on Erik and doesn't "go after him too aggressively", IMO/no source.
Personally, I'd rather invest an early pick on DL...knowing Von is likely gone after this year, and AJE is only on a 2-yr deal/isn't a DE2.
WR is so deep we can find a starter in RD2
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I'm not sure we go after Armstead, IMO Texans will land him. Because of $ and age/injury, I think Beane stays put.
As a possibility, I'm wondering if Beane strategy is to go DL round 1 (which will initially trigger some anger by fans) and trade up in Round 2 for a WR.
DL: Chop Robinson, Darius Robinson (who profiles similar to Armstead, inside/out versatilty) are two guys to watch
WR: such a deep draft, Beane might not see much difference between WR5-6 (which is likely our Rd1 option, if we stay put) & WR8-12 (if we move up in Rd 2)
I don't see us using all eleven picks, so Rd 2 is ripe for moving up. Or we stay put and see WR12ish at our pick.
Sign a guy like Samuel or MVS, who could be a WR2b (complimentary weapon), add a Rd2 Wr. Diggs/Kincaid/FA/Rd 2 Wr/Shakir/Knox....would be a nice collective group.
DL: Oliver, Jones, Groot, Von, AJE, 1 more FA DT, Rd1 DE, Late round DT
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2 hours ago, HappyDays said:
Yeah and I was hoping the likes of Rapp and Lewis and Morrow would be filled in by those cheap draft picks, not veteran contracts. Obviously the entire depth of the roster isn't going to be just rookies but can't these sorts of signings wait until we know what our draft class looks like?
The Rapp signing is my only issue thus far, as I was hoping for a legit starter via FA. Perhaps they still have a plan there.
Lewis is super cheap, provides best ROI for his familiarity with system and position versatility/ST play.
Re: Morrow, all I can think is there could be concern with: 1. Injuries occurring again AND/OR 2. Dorian might not pick things up yet in Year 2.
It's a fact that the injury bug hit us hard LY, especially at LB. But after seeing what happened against KC, I don't think they wanted a rookie in the LB4 spot (especially a late pick) and Dorian hasn't proved anything, except his athleticism. McDs Def philosophy revolves around strong LB play. Having a dependable LB3 is a good investment, given recent injury luck and what we have on roster.
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27 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:
Classic Beane move of getting pieces in place before the draft.
The DL still needs work, and I'm sure we'll be drafting DT early. But we at least have a starting 4 in place if the ***** hits the fan and we cant get our targets.
DT and WR in rounds 1 and 2 in whichever order depending who is available.
Re: draft/round 1 and 2
If right guys are there, I think our most impactful strategy should be: RD1 WR and RD2 OC/OG.
With Daquan back, I think we can find a 1 tech DT in Rd 4-6. Same for DE4 slot.
I think Beane will grab 1 more DT and DE in FA, sets up depth-wise heading into draft.
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1 minute ago, TheWeatherMan said:
Did you watch the last 8 games of the season?
Yeah and he was fighting thru injury it looked like
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Just now, TheWeatherMan said:
We need a WR 1, we all ready have a WR 2 and WR 3
Cookie?
Diggs is WR1. Maybe not a top 5 WR anymore, but he's still a top 15-20 guy. By definition, that's WR1
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13 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:
I wonder if the Bills would look at add Jamel Agnew as a 4th/5th WR and return specialist? Or bring back a guy like Brandon Powell who was here for a brief time?
I think both those guys are exactly the type of WR we look for in FA.
Then two WRs in draft. Along with a late round RB. I think we find another vet in FA for RB2. Brady wants to run a more balanced offense, I think it's important to find a RB2 in FA
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Not sure why ppl want to sign a WR2. Round 1 pick is likely pegged for that.
We likely need a WR4, $5-6m type.
Then draft a 2nd WR in middle rounds.
With Diggs, Kincaid, Shakir, Knox, Cook. We need 1 very good option to add, and a couple supporting types.
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1 minute ago, BBFL said:
He’s capable, just got to show it. Do we see us bringing any other guys on the edge outside the draft?
Yes. I could see us going for a vet, on a y
1yr deal.
Ogbah has been tossed around. Shaq Lawson is the absolute fall back plan. But we might see what happens in draft and pick from the remaining DEs in May/June.
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Cross off DE3 need. Waiting for contract, guessing 2 years for $16m, up to $20m.
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I like the Cam re-signing (prob in minority). He brings versatility, 1 player who can play slot/safety/above avg ST.
Not a fan of the Rapp re-signing. He looked like a backup LY, just don't like putting decent cap $s into backups this early in FA. He's the type of guy we could replace with a June signing or Day 3 pick.
Rest of the guys released/not re-signed, Beane made tough but good decisions IMO.
Be good to get our DE3 in FA, and our starting 1-tech DT. A starting safety would be ideal, not sure if Rapp is their answer but he shouldn't be. And 1 WR, in the Noah Brown price range.
Then hit WR and OL early, fill out depth at DL and S later in draft
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2 minutes ago, JohnNord said:
Ok so no evidence..got it
Happy has posted many injury "inside" info, during the season...ie: Groot foot, Knox wrist, McGovern knee, etc
He's also posted signings/interest in future players, ie: Murray, Joseph, Ford, etc LY
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This has been Beanes biggest issue....he finds a bunch of B/B+ guys to accompany Josh and Stefon, latter is now a B-type guy.
It's a solid/very good roster, but not enough star power. Von was supposed to be the elite guy, along with Tre coming back from injury, but things went sideways.
We need to be "elite" on one side of the ball at least. Either stack up the defense, or more suitable for this draft, stack the WR room and OL.
McDermott is a very good defensive mind and we can win a SB with an elite offense and tier 2 defense. Just need another playmaker, upgrade on Morse, and hopefully we see Kincaid/Shakir continue improving.
Rd 1 WR and Rd 2 G/C, just might put us at elite offense...if they hit on the picks and a WR4 in FA.
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1 hour ago, Matt_In_NH said:
This has some information but not everything. Guess it doesn't really matter.
Anyway, his base is cut from $17.5 million to $8.855 which saves 8.645 on the cap...that is not guarantees that is cap. His guarantee for 2024 was 10.71M. What is it now? Also, some of that
Here is another nugget online ". They moved more cap into the future by converting some of that compensation into a bonus and prorating it, but the details of that remain unclear." So some of the cap decrease is not just a paycut, I contend the paycut is not that signficant, they are giving him the opportunity to make it all up and then some, so it was a trade off of guarantees for a high ceiling for Von. The restructure saved a lot of cap, did not reduce his guarantees a "TON". They accomplished this by some traditional restructure....converting salary to bonus and prorating it and some by a change in the guarantees for 24 with the NLTBE incentives. Over the cap mentions the details are not out "Miller accepted a pay cut in 2024 reducing his salary from $17.5 million to $8.885 million per ESPN's Field Yates. We have updated his contract figures for 2024 based on a handful of reports about the pay reduction and will update further when we receive more information on the contract." Anyway, the cap reduction is what people care about but tit is not being as widely reported that they did bonus proration which is not great for his situation.
According to multiple reports, the Bills and linebacker Von Miller agreed to terms on a contract restructure. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports that Miller's 2024 base salary of $17.145 million was lowered to $8.5 million. Additionally, there are "reachable incentives" that can get him back to earning $17.145 million and additional, higher incentives to bring him nearly $20 million.
Spotrac tells a different story, than you're referencing above.
Salary: all agree that was reduced significantly
Cap in 2024: all agree this reduced by approx $8m
2024 Roster bonus: Spotrac shows this as "non guaranteed" (but ability to convert to signing bonus). This is where the difference lies with what you stated above.
2024 Guaranteed $: not yet clear, but if the roster bonus isn't guaranteed, then we're talking somewhere close to 8.5m as gtd $. And your original $10m estimate was low, it was closer to $17m for 2024
Incentives: yes these could put Von in better $ situation, but I personally like the "pay for performance" incentives (which don't count against cap)
Future cap years: I'm not seeing how our future cap is implicated at all. Unless his roster bonus was indeed "guaranteed"/amortized across remaining years of deal (which would add approx $2m to each future year)
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This $$$ has to be earmarked for DL reinforcements. Von did Beane a solid, and team. That $8m can go a long way to get a couple solid players, or a Floyd type on 1 year deal
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Agents typically pump out the high end ("up to")...I'd imagine it will be backup/3rd safety type money (dime)
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1 minute ago, WotAGuy said:
Of course the guys being cut can’t compare to three HOFers, but when has there been a purge of so many players who had so much success and were beloved, since the big three were cut?Just depends on perspective, Thurman/Bruce/Reed are Bills legends.
White/Po/Morse were all very good players, but none of these guys ever contributed near the success. I just don't too attached to players, unless stars.
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8 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:
Just checked,they seem to be keeping up in real time. But...I don't see how the moves today get us from 42 over to just 19 over. Something has to have happened we haven't heard about yet?
We've saved close to $30M (less Edwards and Haack agreements, likely in the 3m-4m range).
I think they've actually missed a recent cut. Numbers should be close $15m-16m.
Tre savings will kick in after June 1st
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1 minute ago, WotAGuy said:
Haven’t had a day like this since Thurman, Bruce and Andre were cut.
Those were Hall of Famers, core to our success.
White, Poyer, Harty, Morse, and yesterday's moves...don't compare at all.
It's necessary moves, the writing was on the wall for all these guys. Making too much/negative ROI right now.
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19 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:
I won't hate it if that's the way they go. I just prefer the big X early, and I think there are players that merit selection at #28. If you go Worthy there, I personally want to get the X in the second or third. I'm going to wait and see how the dust settles after the Combine and free agency. It's easy to get super enthused in the moment, but right now, that doesn't seem impossible. Folks who worry about the D won't like it, but I really think this might be a unique year where opportunity and Josh Allen equals rolling the dice. I think there is enough depth at DT and quality midround safeties to make that risk something you could contemplate.
100% agree.
Going to be some X types available in the 3rd-4th, that are very talented.
Jerry Rices son and Jalen Coker (top small school WR) are two that I wouldn't mind seeing us draft. Coker obviously played against lesser talent, but he high-points with some of the top tier prospects (he tested elite in vertical at combine). Rice is more talented, has the lineage and also a high production receiver in 2023 but has some things to clean up.
Both these guys will go in the 3rd-4th range, IMO. Right where we should be looking to double-down on WR.
If things align and Beane/staff did their homework, we could come away with our future X and a speedy playmaker. Lots of "ifs", but could be a 3-year draft that would have garnered us: Cook, Kincaid, Shakir, future X, and immediate #2 upgrade.
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1 minute ago, Dr. Who said:
I think you need to pair him with a big X. If that is your only play in the draft, I disagree with the strategy. I don't know if Beane has it in him to find a way to make that happen, but there is enough quality in this draft to make it happen. Having a player who gives Josh that option though, who scares a defense the way teams have to constantly be aware of Tyreek Hill, I like that.
I don't think a big X is necessary, just a creative offense that's going to move him around and be used at all 3 levels of thr pass game. His speed/acceleration best used with some formation/alignment and using him in motion (ie: Hill/Waddle).
Icing on cake is he's also a top tier PR. Risk is his size, but If I were Beane I'd double down at WR (4th round) with a size guy.
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3 minutes ago, SWATeam said:
If he can get off press
This is said about every 'slight' WR, but there many exceptions. Ppl said the same about Zay and Addison last year. Devontae Smith few years ago.
Some guys have skills that translate very well to the NFL, IMO Worthy is that guy
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CURTIS SAMUEL A BILL
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Exactly baseline WR2/complimentary piece to the WR room.
I mentioned earlier today in the Armstead thread, that Beane is likely targeting Samuel/MVS, then going DL in RD1. Wr in RD2 (trade up to high 40s/#50, to get ahead of Steelers).
Will see if draft plays out like that. But hoping we can get our starting FS before draft, and a backup DT.