MasterStrategist
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Posts posted by MasterStrategist
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18 minutes ago, Turk71 said:
His speed makes him a threat on every play... but the reality is he scored only 5tds on 75 rec this past season.
Franklin for example scored 14 times on 81 catches.
Straight line speed doesn't necessarily convey or take the place of great route running, deceptive breaks, elusive moves in space, etc.
I'd argue Franklin had a much better QB, IMO. Worthy is plenty elusive
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11 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:
Keon is just too risky for me. Feels like a boom or Kelvin Benjamin as a Bill type playerI like Keon, think he's very similar to Pickens talent. But Worthy has been my top choice for a while, reminds me of DeSean/Zay Flowers.
Keon lacks some of the route running crispness, but he's way more fluid than Gabe.
Ideally, we see us selecting Worthy. If he's gone, I wouldn't mind trading back to top of 2nd round (1st few picks)...Keon "might" be there still OR plenty of other very solid options.
We need to get 3 immediate impact players (starters/high level depth) at WR, DL, and S from this draft. Be nice to double down on WR (4th round, or if we tradeback possibly in 3rd), get younger in secondary and a RB2 late.
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1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:
Hey, Hap - You've always got interesting takes on things, and this WR vs. dline comment is another. It's compelling, but I'm not sure it's right. Might be, and I can't prove it's wrong, but I look at a different way.
First, the Bills were 8th in the league in yards passing per game, 7th in TDs. 20 yards per game behind the Dolphins, 15 behind the Lions, who were #2, and 2 yards per game behind the Chiefs. My suspicion (not original) is that Diggs was injured for the second half of the season; had he played up to his usual standards, the Bills would have had 10 more yards per game, on average, for the season. That tells me that there is not a massive hole in the receiving corps. It's hard to say that the Bills have had a serious negative impact on the passing game because of what you consider an under-allocation of resources to the position. I say this because unless they add the replacement for Diggs in the first round and he turns into an immediate stud, no one should expect that the Bills are going to get more than 800-900 yards out of their number 2. If that's the case, the Bills aren't far away. Factor in likely increased production out of Kincaid, and I just don't see a huge hole.
Second, I'm not saying the Bills don't need receiving help; ideally, the Bills get a #1 receiver in the first round, pair him with Diggs for a year or two, and then move on from Diggs. However, if they don't hit a homerun and have the luxury of starting two #1s in 2024, they don't need a lot of talent to continue in the top 10 in passing or even move up into the top 5. I think it depends much more on Brady than on getting some stud to be another target - again, I'd welcome the stud, but I don't see that he's crucial.
Third, you clearly have a different philosophy about how to build a successful team. Beane and McDermott are all in on the defensive line rotation and getting pressure with four, and that philosophy therefore demands that resources go there. That's eight players who need to be impactful, and that has a cost associated with it. The Bills were 7th in passing yards allowed per game, second in TDs allowed, and fourth in sacks. That's at least some evidence that the allocation of resources to the Dline makes sense. I've always questioned the rotation, because by needing 8, it's difficult to allocate spending to a true stud in middle, and that's the kind of player who can have out-sized impact on games. But as I say, I've been able to live with the rotation because it has gotten results.
Finally (and back to #2), I think we all tend to look at the long term less critically and less thoroughly than McDermott and Beane do. At this time of year, they're thinking a lot about the 2025 and 2026 roster as they consider their choices, because their intention is that the Bills will be good next season AND in the seasons beyond. One of their big issues has to be who will be the #1 receiver in the future, and how are they going to fill the position? One answer is exactly as you say - get that guy this year, hope he can be a solid #2 by mid-season, and get a free agent who can help in the draft pick isn't the guy, or isn't the guy yet. But for all we know, McBeane see what works best for the long term is to plan to get that receiver in the 2025 draft. They may already be considering how they can stockpile picks in order to trade up. I don't have any idea, but I think there's more of a plan at work here than I can see.
Having said that, what I hope to see in 2024 is a #2 receiver with decent deep speed, good route running ability, reliable hands. I want a guy like Shakir but with better size. He'll run routes better than Davis and will be a regular threat in the offense. He doesn't have to be great; he has to be smart with enough speed. After all, it's pretty clear that what works in the NFL these days is having a lot of guys on the field who can execute an offense that attacks what the defense gives them. With the Cook/Allen run threat, the defense has to give up space elsewhere, and the Bills need a scheme (Brady) and the receivers (Diggs, Shakier, Kincaid, and one more) to attack that space.
Completely agree, that you're stating facts about what we've done in recent past.
But, I think last year was a perfect example of Diggs having to play through injury because we had absolutely nobody to step up. Davis down against Chiefs, and we were relying on Josh/ground attack to move the ball. This offense will be next level/potentially elite with a 1st round WR and a 4th WR via FA.
That's counting on 1st rounder panning out, but recent history has shown the top prospects contribute immediately (and this is a VERY deep class). Kincaid/Cook/Shakir each taking a step forward.
I expect FA to fill holes on DL and depending if we cut Poyer, then a S. We'd be smart to cut some guys, ie: Harty, Morse, Poyer, Tre and sign 1 starter at S, 1 WR (Wr4 type), and bring back Jones. Use remaining cap on depth at DL. Then WR 1st round, S or DE 2nd and 3rd, then depth at DT and RB later in draft. Beane can restructure and maneuver some 1 year deals to "push" some cap to next couple years.
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2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
Nah. If they cut him with a post 1 June it saves us $6.7m this year. But it isn't happening. They are keeping him and doubling down. They better have a backup plan though because I think he is toast.
Not sure I'd call it "doubling down", that usually means putting more money/financial committment.
I'd call it having "faith/hope" in Von, which isn't far-fetched. He looked better/closer to normal form down the stretch. Kinda like Tre in 2022, not quite himself but got closer each game. Then in 2023 looked back like himself.
Regarding CB, and secondary in general, they need more speed/get younger. Elam has talent, albeit inconsistent, but I could see a Bernard (or AJE) type jump for him. It's either Douglas or Tre, that gets cut within the next few weeks IMO. Tre has been around since Coach started, his 1st pick. I think they cut Rasul and see where Tre is at late summer. Elam/Benford/likely Dane resigned/rookie late pick/PS type guys....then if Tre is fully recovered, we have a nice problem. At safety, I'm thinking we start over. Poyer is still good, but the "whole was better than parts" (him and Hyde), FA will have several options and a 2nd or 3rd round rookie - with Cam/Hamlin/Rapp or another FA as depth.
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2 hours ago, SCBills said:
I get why he’d say this given his relationship to Pitt, but what a weird thing to say when he’s under contract with Buffalo next year.
Maybe he knows he’s not long for the roster?
Agree it's weird at face value (just reading a tweet).
But he was asked by a kid at a local community event in Pittsburgh, about playing for the Steelers. So sort of a leading question and Hamlin didn't want to disappoint the kid. Tough situation/response either way.
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Give me speed at WR, I don't care about size. We need someone who can win the short/intermediate routes, with deep play ability who can be relied on as a #2 (potential for #1 in future). This will definitely be a key draft for Beane to get us over the hump.
Then take another in thr 4th-5th, who is more deep threat/size type.
We need a more balanced group of WRs, like GB built. Mix of different skill sets.
We can make a significant jump in skill players this offseason, similar to Ravens/Pack, if our young guys keep developing and we hit big on our 1st rounder (WR) and can find a capable #2 back.
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11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
The $17m IS sitting on the table right now. He is being paid it to be here. It is the guaranteed portion of his 2024 salary. He would be paid it if he was not here also but then it would be dead money. But he is being paid it anyway. The question is do you pay him $6.7m more.
If you are on about the $15m - my pojnt there is the Bills have known about that dead money since they did the restructure. They likely planned to cut bait after 2024 anyway - a 5 year year deal that was really a 3 year deal so that $15m has already been baked into their plan. The only thing they lose by cutting him a year ahead of plan is the ability to split that $15m over two years of cap.
Your last point, I think is the primary issue. $15m next year would be a HUGE hit.
I think we get better "value" keeping him this year, vs a replacement at $6.7m. And as mentioned, more importantly we can spread $15m dead cap over 2 years.
People forget we signed Floyd for $7-8m against the cap (forget exact #), but built in a deap cap for this year. Beane isn't going to double up the problem by cutting Von and doing a similar Floyd signing.
Better alternative is doing a Floyd type signing and keep Von. Financially we can do that
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5 minutes ago, Gman10 said:
Anyone know when the full schedule is released? My wife and I are trying to get there by the end of October. We have never been to Buffalo, but don't want to deal with the freezing cold like some of you savages lol.
Usually mid to end of May
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27 minutes ago, st pete gogolak said:
So even though our D has been statistically very good in the regular season the last four years, good offenses have blown us up in the playoffs each of the last four years. Is it players, schemes, injuries, or something else? Not sure but I lean toward scheme. I would love to see us imitate the Rams “Greatest Show on Turf” defense. It wasn’t particularly talented but it complimented a high powered offense by being super aggressive, causing a lot of turnovers and playing well with a lead. Do we have the personnel to blitz more, play more press coverage? Have no idea. Will Babich have the authority to remake the defense? I’m guessing no. We’re clearly going to pick a bunch of players on the defensive side in the upcoming draft so we’ll have a better idea about the direction of the defense at the end of April.
I lean toward players/injuries, especially lacking any elite guys at DL and secondary:
2020-our DL wasn't near good enough
2021- our DL wasn't near good enough/Tre injured and slowing down in secondary (safeties)
2022-injuries to Von/Hyde/Daquan and a 80% Tre White
2023- way too many injuries, especially at LB to defend what Chiefs like to do with their TEs and Rbs
We were missing too many pieces to be aggressive VS Chiefs this year, and just too slow/banged up against Cincy. I think our scheme works, we play these high-caliber teams in regular season (ie: Chiefs) and can win.
DL and safety will likely look alot different next year (younger/faster). Not necessarily better overall players, but it's all about staying healthy at key spots. I'd like to see Spags coach up/use his system here, it wouldn't work....he's been fortunate with injuries.
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My evaluation of Joe Brady..
Pros:
1. Coaching style: Brought more energy/juice to the off room- including getting Josh back into a groove and fewer turnovers
2. Playcalling: liked we had better balance and used Cook/Kincaid in more ways. Better rhythm overall
3. Ability to improve: we've yet to see him install "his system", did a good job working within the existing system
4. Diverse scheme: we haven't seen it fully yet, but Brady has experience in effective and good schemes in the past
Cons:
1. Passing game: struggled down the stretch vs expectations
2. Retread: hasn't been successful everywhere he's been. fired from Carolina
I think he gets the job for 3 reasons:
1. Continuity/familiarity
2. We haven't seen "his scheme" yet, and he runs an offense that McD likes
3. WR2/weapons: not blaming everything on WR2, but when you want to run a short/intermediate attack (with select downfield shots), Gabe doesn't fit at all/we didn't have many options other than rookie Kincaid
Get a legit WR in round 1 and another FA. We need to do a better job in FA at finding a weapon to use/worth the $ (Beane has invested, albeit low $s, that add up and haven't panned out)
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Agree, we need to be more explosive on offense. But also maintain our ground game/short passing too.
We just don't the WR weapons, simple as that. Took 3 chances deep yesterday, Sherfield 2x and Diggs 1x. All 3 were great passes. Diggs either playing through an injury or majorly regressed in 2nd half of season. I lean toward injury, based on what he showed to start the year.
A legit #2, competition for Shakir, and some adjustments to scheme. Joe Brady showed he can run a short passing/efficient offense, but didn't "wow" me. He brought an aspect that Daboll and Dorsey lacked- a run game/short attack. He was running Dorseys scheme, so I'm confident he'd improve, question is how much?
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I like what the Packers built over a 2 year span....guys like Dobbs, Watson, Reed. They all complement very well, though none are true #1s.
I think we could have something similar with 1-2 additions via the draft, which is a talented class. 1st round pick and a mid rounder. Get a speed guy and a big bodied guy with solid hands.
Diggs was either injured in 2nd half of year, or has dropped to a #2 type WR.
Shakir is a hard worker, good role player, but we get zero separation with our current group. It's either skill or playcalling/scheme, possibly both.
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I'm sticking with Kincaid. Stick route or to the corner (if they're in man/cover 2). Go back to the angle route to Cook
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This is our season, drive and get points....ideally a TD
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Need a big play on offense now...Chiefs adjusting to take away our run game.
Harty or Kincaid right now
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Just now, VaMilBill said:
If josh could have broke that I think that was a Td
Spags about to adjust and bring more pressure...4 man not getting it done for Chiefs.
Brady needs to be ready with some quick passing/WR screen
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Just now, HappyDays said:
Good work holding them, I still don't understand what happened on that blown coverage to Rice though. Can't gift them a free 30 yards while also missing out on a sack.
Klein didn't run with the crosser into his flat zone
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1 minute ago, HappyDays said:
I don't know if we could have survived the loss of Johnson and Bernard. Losing just Bernard makes me feel okay.
100% agree. You said it earlier, I also expect alot of "sub packages", to get our best 11 on the field.
Belichick deployed a dime defense against us all game two years ago. I'm thinking 50/50 base nickle and dime/sub looks.
I think Dorian gets the start, but will be about him staying in position/eye discipline.
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Last time we played KC, James Cook had a coming out party. I'd expect we work the ground game and attack their LBs/middle of field.
Spags likely going to bring along pressure, as he usually does against Josh. Playing alot press man/single high, behind it. Cook/Kincaid/Shakir I'd expect to get alot of targets again.
I'd like to see us use Harty more outside, against press man teams his speed/quickness is a huge asset. Will see if Gabe is back this week.
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58 minutes ago, Beck Water said:
How does Bangedup know that Diggs is an abdomen?
The most serious injury is Bernard, because even if it 's a sprain - it was a serious enough sprain that they splinted and x-rayed it. It may be a serious sprain requiring long recovery or even surgery.
Johnson is serious. Concussions are unpredictable.
Benford is serious. He's been playing out of his mind, and Kaiir "Grabby" Elam vs. the ref crew that calls the most holding penalties is free yards waiting to happen.
On the offensive side, I think Diggs is injured but it's more of whatever he has been dealing with.
Connor McGovern is potentially big
Think it's an "educated guess" on Diggs. Based on Minkah hitting him there/Diggs toppling over. Agree, Diggs is battling through something.
Bernard- if it's indeed a sprain, didn't look like High'Ankle based on bend direction. But could still be a torn ligament/need several month surgery recovery. Big Unknown until MRI. We just don't have the numbers at LB, with Spector also down and Dodson. Hopefully both those guys can play this week
Johnson- I think he was injured on. the Pickens reverse, didn't look like head/thought his legs gave out. But maybe hit then fell awkwardly.
Benford - he was riding stationary bike then quickly ruled out. I don't recall the injury, perhaps on the Freirermuth fumble. Hopefully we get Rasul back, at a minimum, to go with Dane.
Martin- I'd expect he battles through/plays.
McGovern- came back into game after 1 play, sure he'll be ok
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Keep Harty or Isabella in there for some easy motion/swing passes
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That's a fumble!!!
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I'm in favor of kicking with the wind to start
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2 hours ago, Einstein said:
Just FYI, that script has seem to flip (for the Steelers) over the past three games.
Last week: 155 rushing yards
Week before: 202 rushing yards
Week before that: 113 rushing yards
They seem to have found something in their rushing game over the past three weeks that they didn’t have most of the season.
Not discrediting the Steelers, but...
1. Last week: Baltimore mostly backups
2. 2 weeks ago: Hawks have been horrible against the run down the stretch. 200+ 2x and 160 in their last 3
3. 3 weeks ago: 30 for 113 against Cincy is OK. Nothing special, ypc wise and they hit some splash plays early
But to your point and what alot of folks saying, the key is shutting down their run game. I just wouldn't say they "found" anything. They've been solid most of the year, with Najee and Warren. Just recently Rudolph has hit some key passes, and not turned it over.
Trenches and turnover margin likely will be the key, as usual:
1. Our OL: I'd say "even", with Watt out.
2. Our DL: biggest matchup/most pivotal, and IMO we have slightly better talent. We need to win here
3. Turnover margin: Steelers have best in NFL, play smart/opportunistic on defense. Watt missing is huge in pass rush/turnovers. Josh just needs to play smart. Good comes with the bad, but he just can't have multiple turnovers
I'd say we win by 6-8, if above holds true. 10+ if we win the turnover margin
NFL Scouting Combine 2024
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Anyone questioning Worthy should check out some highlights. Yes highlights, but the guy has elite level speed and acceleration/ability to create YAC.
He would instantly draw a safety over the top on his side, wouldn't be taken away 1-1 like Gabe disappeared.
He's the exact fit we need on offense, and boost us to elite level playmakers. Kincaid, Shakir, Knox in the middle of field and Diggs/Worthy outside is a very balanced group of skill players. Then Cook, a new RB2, and Josh running. Will be difficult to stop that offense.