Arm of Harm

Tom Brady has a career yards per attempt of 7.5, and a career QB rating of 97.3. For Aaron Rodgers those numbers are 7.8 and 103.9.

Rodgers is arguably the greatest QB in NFL history. He only has one Super Bowl ring due to spending his career with a dysfunctional franchise. At non-QB positions the Bucs have far more talent than the Packers. Instead of using their first round pick to partially remedy that, the Packers drafted Love. Love has great physical tools but did not establish himself as an accurate passer or as a guy who processes information quickly. He’s the same category of prospect as Losman and EJ Manuel. Now the Packers have lied to him, telling him they’d trade him when they had no plans to do so. I don’t blame Rodgers for wanting to get away from a dysfunctional, dishonest organization so that he has a chance at another ring.

On the one hand, I agree with you that a GM's incompetence does not necessarily imply a family relationship with Satan. On the other hand, Donahoe's incompetence is about far more than just one draft pick: 1) In 2001, TD could have drafted Drew Brees. Instead of which, he traded down for Nate Clements, CB. Clements went first contract + one year and out. 2) Prior to the 2002 season, TD traded away his first round pick in 2003 for Drew Bledsoe. Bledsoe spent 3 years as the Bills' starting QB before getting released. 3) In the 2002 draft Donahoe used the 4th overall pick to take Mike Williams, RT. Williams was among the biggest busts in franchise history. Donahoe gained pretty much nothing from the 2002 draft. 4) In 2003, Donahoe used a first round pick to take Willis McGahee, RB. McGahee failed to provide a significant upgrade over Travis Henry, whom Donahoe had drafted in the 2nd round of 2001. 5) In the 2004 draft, Donahoe chose not to trade up for Ben Roethlisberger, because he thought the price too expensive. Instead he stayed at 13th overall and took Lee Evans (a decent speed WR). He then traded back into the first for Losman, using his 2nd round pick from 2004 and his first round pick from 2005. 6) Had the Losman trade not occurred, the Bills could have drafted Aaron Rodgers in 2005. But the Losman acquisition meant that they were unable (no first rounder in 2005) and unwilling to do so. 7) As for Losman himself, there was nothing to suggest he'd be a good QB beyond his good physical tools. A QB like that is a prototype of a first round bust. 8 ) Somewhere along the way, Donahoe chose to end contract negotiations with Antoine Winfield, CB. Winfield was a first round pick and a multiple Pro Bowl player who had a 14 year career. Only the first five of those years were spent in Buffalo, due to first-contract-and-out. The money Donahoe saved by not extending Winfield he used to overpay aging players such as Troy Vincent and Lawyer Milloy. 9) Donahoe made two bad head coaching hires: Gregg Williams and (later) Mike Mularkey. The Williams hire was especially boneheaded, because the Bills had an outstanding defensive scheme in place when Donahoe took over. He should have hired an offensively oriented head coach while keeping that defensive scheme. The defensive scheme Williams installed was significantly worse than the one it replaced.

Any time you try to catch a CB in the draft, you can often be led on a Wildgoose chase.

Why is Sherman a bad cultural fit? Any time a guy turns himself into a WWII era tank, that's a bad fit. Sets a bad example.

Yeah, I was hoping for a bigger upgrade to the interior OL than what we actually saw. I’ve got my fingers crossed that Lamp can become a quality starter.

In the year Trent Dilfer led the Ravens to a Super Bowl win, he averaged 6.7 yards per attempt, and had a QB rating of 76.6. Mayfield’s numbers for 2020 were 7.3 and 95.9. That’s substantially better. The considerable upgrade Mayfield gives you over Dilfer means you don’t necessarily need a defense or running game as good as the Ravens of 2000 to achieve a Super Bowl win if Mayfield is your QB.

Green Lightning wasn’t being serious.

Rob Johnson is also on my list of bad takes. He had the right physical tools and if you gave him time in the pocket he was accurate, especially on intermediate to deep passes. But he was slow at processing information and was a sack waiting to happen. I sometimes wonder what his career would have been like if he’d gone to the Ravens after being cut by the Bills. The Ravens had a great OL, anchored by Hall of Fame LT Jon Ogden. They needed a QB. So . . . maybe? At least he’d have had plenty of time to throw. Don’t beat yourself up for being unhappy with the Kiko trade. Kiko was a young, promising player with his whole career in front of him. LeSean McCoy was getting on in years, at a position not exactly known for longevity. The Bills didn’t have an answer at QB, so it’s not like they were a threat to win the Super Bowl during the short window McCoy gave them. In retrospect Kiko got hurt and was never the same player again. But no way for you, or for that matter Doug Whaley, to know at the time that that was going to happen.

I don't know if this was my absolute worst take ever but it's up there. I was gung ho about Trent Edwards.

Below are the yards per pass attempt and QB rating for some QBs: Baker Mayfield (2020): 7.3 95.9 Tom Brady (career): 7.5 97.3 Joe Flacco (career): 6.8 84.1 Josh Allen (2020): 7.9 107.2 As you can see from the above numbers, Baker Mayfield's 2020 season was solid, and Josh Allen's 2020 season was sick. It is absolutely possible for a team to win the Super Bowl while its QB puts up numbers similar to those of Baker Mayfield in 2020. But, the team in question would need to be well-balanced, with a good defense and good running game.

Last season the Bills changed their blocking scheme in a way which helped Moss and harmed Singletary. Maybe Singletary adapts to the new blocking scheme. If not I figure it will be Moss as the starter and Breida as the change of pace/speed back. This past season Moss averaged 4.3 yards per carry, while earning a perfect track record as a blocker. The career average for Thurman Thomas is 4.2 yards a carry, and Thomas played behind a much better line. On the other hand the Bills offense of the Kelly era was run oriented, and that tends to decrease average yards per carry. While I do not consider Moss an elite player, I think all three of him, Breida, and Singletary are solid. Much bigger problems on this team than RB.

I am more familiar with the Bills than I am with the Browns, so I don't want to get dragged into a discussion of whether the Browns' defensive ranking is or isn't inflated. But, when the Bills faced a good QB in 2020, he typically put up a better yards per attempt against the Bills than he did for the season as a whole. That is indicative of a defense that's below-average against good passing attacks. In the AFC Championship Game, the Chiefs had 7 drives which didn't end in kneel downs. Assuming a maximum of 7 points per drive, that's a total potential score of 7 x 7 = 49 points for the Chiefs offense. The Chiefs offense scored 38 points, or 78% of maximum. According to the tables you provided, the Chiefs also had 7 non-kneel down drives against the Browns. Once again that's a maximum of 49 points. The Browns defense allowed 23 points on those drives, which is 47% of the maximum. Allowing an offense to score at 47% of maximum is clearly a much better defensive performance than allowing it to score at 78% of maximum.

I agree with most of what you wrote, but think there's more to the story. During the last 1/3 of the regular season, the Bills indeed looked like they might be the best team in the NFL. The offense looked unstoppable, the defense appeared to have gotten its act together. But then, for whatever reason, the team seemingly provided a lower level of play in the postseason. Yeah, part of it was the WRs being hurt, but that was not the whole story. During the regular season the offensive line did well at pass protection but badly at run blocking. In the postseason it was bad at both. The defense did not play particularly well against the Colts, and as I'd mentioned had the complete collapse against the Chiefs. The defense played well against the Ravens, but in that game the offense didn't do much. That Ravens game was essentially decided by one play: the pick six. (A 14 point swing.) For the Bills to win it all they need much more than just a healthy WR corps. They need an OL which can at least reliably pass protect, even if it can't run block very well. They need a defense which forces punts or turnovers at least some of the time, each and every game, so that we don't run into another debacle like the AFC Championship Game.

The initial datum you mention may be misleading, due to quality of opposition. The Bills defense played Cam Newton twice, Tua once, Sam Darnold and the Jets twice, etc. Easy to run up good stats against QBs and passing offenses like those. Then you look at how the Bills defense fared against good QBs or good passing attacks. The defense allowed Ryan Fitzpatrick to pile up a lot of yards and points: the Bills narrowly won that game in a shootout. Against Russell Wilson the defense allowed him to achieve significantly more than his usual yards per pass attempt, but made up for it by generating sacks and INTs. The Bills defense allowed Kyler Murray to do better than his usual yards per pass attempt. Then there were the two defensive collapses against KC: one in the regular season, the other in the postseason. Justin Herbert achieved a bit less than his usual yards per attempt when facing the Bills defense: the one good defensive performance against a good passing QB. As far as defensive performance against KC, I'm far more interested in points per drive, than I am in total passing yards. If you throw out drives which ended in kneel downs, the Bills defense allowed a TD on all KC drives, except for 1 punt and 1 FG. The punt was due to a dropped pass. The Bills defense did nothing to give the team a chance to win. The Browns defense gave their team a realistic chance to win in their playoff game against KC.

As was pointed out earlier in this thread, Mahomes played until late in the 3rd quarter against the Browns. The Browns defense did a much better job of stopping Mahomes than the Bills defense would do a week later. More generally, the Bills defense of 2020 did not play well against good passing offenses, except the game against Justin Herbert and the Chargers. The defensive collapse in the AFC Championship Game was part of a larger pattern. The Bills defense did a good job against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, which as you point out is more than can be said of the Cleveland defense. The Bills defense is apparently better than the Browns defense at stopping running QBs. If your goal is to win the Super Bowl which would you rather have: a defense like the Bills, which can stop running QBs but is vulnerable to good passing attacks? Or a defense like the Browns, which would appear to be vulnerable to running QBs but reasonably good at stopping good passing attacks? I believe the road to the Super Bowl goes through Kansas City. If you can't stop their passing attack you will not beat them, and will not make it to the Super Bowl.

That’s not what I was saying in my post. Cleveland’s defense has demonstrated the ability to contain the Chiefs offense. The Bills defense has not. Until or unless that changes the Browns are more likely to be able to make it past the Chiefs than are the Bills.

This is a key point to remember. In the AFC Championship game, all the Chiefs drives resulted in TDs except for two. (1 punt and 1 FG.) The Bills defense did not give the team as a whole a chance to win. In their playoff game against the Chiefs, the Browns defense did a significantly better job than did the Bills. Both defenses have added more horses. But for the Bills more horses alone won’t be enough. McDermott and Frazier need to come up with a much better plan or scheme than the one they deployed in the AFC Championship game. I hope they’re working on that this off-season. If the Bills’ early draft picks pan out, and if Lamp is the answer at starting OG, they should have the talent to challenge for the conference championship. But they’re not getting past KC without a better defensive plan.

Polian didn’t draft Jim Kelly but he did draft Bruce Smith. Polian officially became GM in 1986 (a year after Smith was drafted), but he was in charge of the 1985 draft even though he didn’t have the official GM title.

One difference between the Polian era versus McDermott is that Polian inherited some good long term building block players from prior GMs. In 1980 the Bills drafted OG Jim Ritcher, who was an important member of all the Super Bowl teams. In 1983 they drafted Jim Kelly and Daryl Talley (LB), both of whom were also integral to those Super Bowls. Polian took the reins in 1985. Which players from the 2020 Bills team were around before McDermott took over? Jerry Hughes comes to mind but I think he’s the only one. That said you make good points in your post, and I’m not overlooking the fact that some of Beane’s early picks haven’t lived up to their draft position.

I think Wildgoose would benefit from being coached by Turk Schonert!

For those who don’t know, Bill from NYC is a longtime poster best known for being the original author of the thread “A few thoughts about the game (in no particular order).” The other thing he’s known for is his strong opposition to using early picks on DBs or RBs. He generally wants to focus draft picks and other resources on the OL, but also on the DL. A draft like this seems exactly like something he would do! 😲

Do you think he is the answer for the Patriots?

The largest wild Siberian tiger recorded weighed 660 pounds, compared to 589 pounds for largest ever wild gorilla. However a gorilla will typically be a little larger than a Siberian tiger due to the largest Siberian tigers having been hunted and killed. Siberian tigers will sometimes prey on brown bears and black bears. The presence of a Siberian tiger in an area causes a local extinction for wolves. Felines are strong: a male lion can break the neck of a horse with a single swipe of a paw. In a football game a Siberian tiger would use its speed, enormous strength, and athleticism to tackle a gorilla. In a fight to the death (often discouraged in football games), the Siberian tiger would rely on its speed, strength, and cat quick reflexes in an effort to go for the jugular or otherwise kill its opponent. A gorilla would seek to break its opponent’s bones, and would have the ability to use its hands to grab hold of its enemy. It would be a great fight, but my money would be on the animal which must always kill before it can eat.

This is exactly why you need a Siberian Tiger on defense!