CincyBillsFan

The wind and cold were huge factors. I've been checking out Bills home games back during the 1988 - 1993 run and there were a lot of games where Kelly, Reed & Thomas could not generate consistent offense under bad weather conditions. Bad weather compensates for talent differentials. Its always been that way in football. Allen "barely" hangs on to his game ball? He had over 300 yards of total offense, 2 TD's and no TO's. And he came up big when we needed it at the end of the first half and in the 4th quarter. And he just missed adding 2 more TD's to his total with two excellent passes to Diggs & Davis in the end zone that missed by inches.

Who cares? Jacksonville was beating the Colts 26 - 3 midway through the 4th quarter. This is the NFL not college football.

Allen had an excellent passing game today CONSIDERING THE WIND. Why Bills "fans" don't understand this is beyond me. And Allen came close to having 2 more TD passes on great throws to Davis & Diggs in the end zone that missed by inches. You are NOT going to see a QB go 30/40 for 350 yards and 4 TD's on days like this. During the Kelly/Bills run from 1988 - 1994 there were numerous bad weather games in Rich Stadium and the offense looked a lot worse then it did today. This is how these games look even if you have several HOF players on offense like we did back in day.

The Bills lack of YAC compared to other top teams is a huge disadvantage.

No matter how this game turns out if I owned the Bronco's Vangio and his staff would be gone tomorrow.

I don't want to hear about Allen's 3 picks two of which were tipped. Mahomes has thrown 2 easy picks only to see both INT's dropped. Meanwhile half of Allen's INT's are made by defensive players fully extending their body's and making finger tip catches 4 inches off the turf.

On the 4 TD drives Allen threw the ball very well converting a number of 3rd downs along the way. Ryan benefited from a lot of YAC. I'm to lazy to look it up but more then half of Ryan's passing yards had to be YAC.

Allen's play in bad weather reminds of the joke told about two hikers encountering a bear and as they take off running they realize that they don't have to out run the bear they only have to outrun the other guy. In bad weather games Allen only needs to outplay the other QB.

IMO that was the right choice by Allen. It was actually close to being a TD and reminded the Falcons that even in those conditions he could throw it relatively accurately deep downfield. Since it was first down that was the time to take the shot. Had it been second down a throw to Knox there to make it a 3rd & 5 would have been the better play. Also, why wasn't the Falcon defender flagged for a PF Blindside Hit when they cracked back on Knox on that one pattern? Finally, I believe that the slower, snow covered field allowed the Falcons to get away with stuff they wouldn't have on a faster field.

When watching the video you see Diggs slip and fall and then later another WR (not sure who - maybe Davis) slips and falls. The footing really impacted the WR's on Sunday.

Every escape from the pocket and pass he threw in those Wyoming highlights he's repeatedly done with the Bills.

Early on Smith said to another player something along the lines that with the snow it was going to be a "slow field". Might be the biggest reason Bill's WR's couldn't get much separation.

I disagree. Allen threw the ball well (3 for 4 for 32 yards and also a 2 pt conversion throw) on the Bills two TD drives that won the game in the 2nd half. Allen also threw the ball well on the first 2 TD drives of the game and on the 3rd drive before taking a bad risk in the throw to the end zone. But watching both games IMO Allen's play, including his passing was much better then Mayfield's. It was clear from my eye test.

On the two 2nd half TD drives (80 & 70 yards) that the Bills had to win the game Allen was 3 of 4 for 32 yards passing (he missed on a deep pass to Diggs that was close). In addition Allen completed a 2 pt conversion throw to Beasley. Allen rushed 6 times for 49 yards. There were a couple of 3rd down conversions and one 4th down conversion. That's a QB playing at an exceptionally high level in tough weather conditions when the game was on the line.

A few things were the reason for this: * The Bills had a HOF RB and a back-up RB that would have started for most teams. * The Bills had an O-line with multiple all pros. * The expectations of QB play and offensive production in bad weather in Rich Stadium games was a lot more realistic then the video game expectations of today. As I showed yesterday with a post detailing some of Kelly's less then great home games, the Bills often won these games sloppy and absent "good" QB play. The key here is understanding that "good"QB play in bad weather conditions is a completely different thing then hen the weather is good. Going forward next season the Bills have to add a BIGGER RB to complement Singleterry; a second TE that can block/catch the ball; one BIG nasty guard and at least one BIG WR. If thy do this they will be able to handle the bad weather that is Buffalo in November - January.

The challenge with QB ratings is that none of the systems employed does a good job of holistically capturing a QB's true level of play. Take last nights Browns/Steelers game. Baker Mayfield finished with a QB rating of 53 which was much better then Allen's QB rating of 17. Yet at NO time during yesterday;s game did Mayfield perform better then Allen did at QB against Atlanta. It wasn't even close. And before people say "but Baker was sacked 9 times what could he do" I would counter that Allen playing behind the exact same line as Mayfield last night would have had half as many sacks. Right there, the ability of Allen to avoid being sacked is exponentially better then Mayfield's but does not show up in the stats. Or look at Dak Prescott. He had a decent QB rating on Sunday in the Cowboys loss to Arizona. Yet watching the game he was a worse QB then Allen on that day as he could only muster 7 points through three and a half quarters and had a key fumble that gave the Cards a two score lead late.

This is a great point and IMO is 100% correct. Any doubts that Allen wasn't a franchise QB should be gone. Yet we still get goofy posts & threads from people convinced Allen is not the guy. Like did you know that when there is a quarter moon Allen's QB rating is 10 points lower? It drives me crazy. Yea, this season he's only accomplished the SECOND GREATEST season a Bills QB has ever had. REGRESSION!

Damn, Ben has 41 attempts for only 123 yards! I've never seen anything like this.

Or Allen was buying extra time with his mobility. A lot of his big chunk plays were throws after he exited the pocket.

This is a special kind of Allen hate masquerading as analysis. I think a better description is that Debold finally figured out that the way the Falcons were playing us on defense combined with the limitations of the weather on the passing game forced his hand at changing the run/pass balance. And it's a good thing that our ELITE QB has unique rushing skills matched by ONLY two other QB's in the NFL (Murray & Jackson) which enabled him to superbly execute the change in game plan.

Or to put a different spin on it who do you think was the better QB yesterday - Prescott or Allen? Prescott's passing stats were exponentially better then Allen's were in their games yesterday. Yet Dallas lost the game and trailed 22 - 7 in the 4th quarter. And the Cowboys rely in their offense yet Prescott could only manage one TD through 3 and a half quarters. IMO Allen was the better QB but not the better passer yesterday, Stats, particularly fr QB's, can be very misleading.

The Rams & Seahawks games were two of the best games he's ever played in his career. And IMO you seriously underrate the game Allen had at home in the payoffs against INDY. 378 total yards, all 3 Bills TD's and no TO's. Since Allen reached elite level in 2020 he has had 17 and a half home games (one half against Miami). Of those I would say that 4 and a half were exceptional. AFC offensive player of the week caliber games (Rams, Seahawks, Colts in playoffs, Redskins and the half against Miami). He also had very good games against the Jets, Texans, Carolina, LA Chargers & Pitt; he had good games against NE (2020), Miami (2021) & Ravens (playoff). He had an average passing game against Pitt (2021) and poor passing games against KC (2020), Indy (2021), NE (2021) and Atlanta (but had a great rushing game),

Frankly I don't think they are being reasonable. Or to put it less insulting they're exhibiting a keen ignorance of the Bills 1988 - 1993 run which was the best 6 seasons in Buffalo Bills history. The Bills won a lot of games just like yesterday. In fact by my rough count we won almost as many games sloppy as we did with impressive blow outs. This is how playoff runs work in the NFL. This isn't college football where an LSU or Alabama can dominate every game on their way to a championship.

Weather is the main culprit the last couple of games. Match-ups also are an issue. If you're going to look at trends you need at least two seasons IMO to come to any conclusion. I went back and looked at some of Kelly's worst games during the 1988 - 1993 run and a lot of them were at Rich Stadium. And when I say bad games I'm talking about multi INT games with less then 200 yards passing. And Kelly didn't have the ability to take over a game with his running skills like Allen does. Source: Sal Maiorana's Relentless. I looked at 1988 & 1989 Rich Stadium games which is where I optimistically think the Bills are today: 1988: week 1: 17 - 31 for 244 yards, 0 TD & 1 INT week 2: 15 - 24 for 231 yards, 0 TD & 1 INT week 8: 12 - 18 for 165 yards, 1 TD & 1 INT week 10: 10 - 14 for 80 yards, 1 TD & 2 INT week 12: 8 - 18 for 115 yards, 0 TD & 1 INT week 15: 11 - 24 for 128 yards, 1 TD & 0 INT week 17: 19 - 33 for 244 yards, 0 TD & 1 INT (playoff game) 1989: week 2: 26 - 44 for 298 yards, 1 TD & 3 INT week 14: 17 - 35 for 211 yards, 2 TD & 3 INT Here's a few more: 1990 week 4: 18 - 34 for 167 yards, 0 TD & 1 INT week 10: 5 - 15 for 79 yards, 0 TD & 0 INT 1991 week9: 14 - 28 for 237 yards, 1 TD & 2 INT week 18: 13 - 25 for 117 yards, 0 TD & 2 INT (companionship game) 1992 week 5: 25 - 48 for 306 yards, 1 TD & 4 INT week 11: 7 - 15 for 93 yards, 2 TD & 1 INT week 13: 20 - 35 for 215 yards, 1 TD & 2 INT week 14: 13 - 25 for 213 yards, 1 TD & 2 INT 1993 week 4: 14 - 25 for 142 yards, 1 TD & 1 INT week 15: 20 - 31 for 256 yards, 0 TD & 2 INT Kelly also had a lot of great games at home during the run. But by my count Kelly played in 51 home games between 1988 - 1993 (including playoffs & games he missed due to injury). And I didn't include the weird 1991 game against the Bengals at Rich Stadium where Kelly threw 3 INT's in the FIRST Quarter! He did throw for 5 TD's in a win. So by my count Kelly had 19 poor passing games in 51 home games played during the run. In these 19 games he threw for 13 TD's & 30 INT. And no one would suggest Kelly payed poorly at home. It should also be noted that the Bills won most of these games - just like yesterday.

I'm scratching my head at all the fans wanting Allen to be more like Rogers! Sure that's a laudable goal but there is a slight difference in age, like 12 freaking years. Some things have to be learned through EXPERIENCE and yesterday was just part of the long journey Allen is on. But it's beyond unrealistic to think Allen should be right behind Rogers on this path. He's way behind Rogers now but if he stays healthy he'll match him sooner rather then later.