WideNine

Ready to see more Moss on 1st down runs....

ooops there it is.... fumble!

Singletary needs to run that drag just a yard deeper... damn it was there.

There has been some good pass pro and that was definitely pass interference on Diggs - more obvious than calls in the first two games. So we know how they are calling that - our DBs need to take note and see if we get the same interpretation.

Also when comparing games you have to account for the Bills playing nearly the whole game vs the Steelers with empty sets and 5 wides while against the fins they used mostly 11 personnel with a running back. Using more 11 personnel they were able to tap the brakes on the fins rush and force them to play us a bit differently. Teams are flooding the shallow zones initially. The Steelers especially have their zone blitz coupled with the "Palms" and 2-read techniques to counter trips and bunch receiver sets and take away the short rhythm passing game. They are in that long enough to disrupt the short timing pass, and apply enough pressure to move a QB off his spot. They then back off into zone shells with 2-3 safeties deep to take away intermediate and deeper options. Josh Allen 1.0 just ran and heaved the ball. Teams threw blitz after blitz at him with man coverage till Josh Allen 1.5 figured that out and tore blitz defenses up. Defenses have changed how they are playing Allen again. Other than better offensive line play and the Bills running the ball, I am not sure what more Allen can do to avoid that early pressure to catch these defenses in coverage transition. If he avoids the rush and sees green in front of him because the coverage is backing off into zones, then by all means he should scramble to the sticks. The only designed runs I like with Allen are his short-yarsage sneaks and option rollouts near the end zone because he can either throw it, pitch it, or run it in himself. That is a lot of options and stress on a defense to defend. One thing I do believe is that the more Daboll and Allen see these defenses the more they will find ways to attack them.

Kind of my initial take on his ceiling too, although I am a strong proponent of giving QBs time and the right support in the right environment to really assess their potential. He hasn't stayed healthy long enough to really do the latter. And as they say the best player ability in the NFL is availability.

Not so much, but you can take their stat "measurables" and decide how subjective they are and then decide if they are useful for trending. Otherwise their talking heads draw a lot of conclusions out of thin air.

Yup. Truth.

It is interesting. The first game Daboll has Allen pissing into the wind by using mostly empty sets and basically telling Pittsburgh "we know you are only rushing four and have everyone else in coverage, but we are going to try to pass into that double and triple coverage any ways while your dline has the luxury of pinning their ears back rushing Allen because they don't have to worry about gap responsibility and stopping runs. The result was predictably horrible. TBD was awash with cries for Daboll's and Allen's head on a pike. "Why don't they run more, why doesn't Allen check down and take what defenses are giving?? So they go into Miami and feature far more 11 personnel and even some 21 personnel with our fullback getting some touches. We ran the ball, Allen took what the defense was giving and threw it away often when nothing was there. We hung over 30 points on the fins and yet out come a lot of the same posters with the whole Josh is regressing thing. Now in a clean pocket with time to step into a throw if Allen misses that is on him and there have been some of those. But more often than not there has been a jailbreak somewhere after each snap that has Allen pulling down the ball and having to throw on the run off platform or reset and miss route windows. The o-line as a unit needs to be committed to keeping Allen more clean and we need to stay committed to running the ball to tap the brakes on opponent pass rushers and test those lighter boxes. It is all about winning, there are no style points.

McD is funny. I am sure that is also another way of saying all 5 offensive linemen had their negative moments... Film time must be brutal, but sounds like McD spends a set time on reviewing what needs fixing then on to the next opponent. Healthier than an all-week beat down.

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/jim-kubiak-dont-analyze-josh-allens-stats-analyze-the-decisions-hes-making/article_dca2609a-1a64-11ec-a59d-1b92017538b4.html Sorry if this was posted elsewhere, but does a better job explaining things to fans tied to just the passing numbers than I do.

Against teams bringing the extra rusher and playing man defense. Folks should educate themselves on why Allen and our offense dominated those games and how defenses have adjusted. It is silly to think they will pass for 400 yards against cover 3 zone passing defensive sets with very good secondaries only giving up a few underneath passes. Offensive performance is more than passing for lots of yards = good passing for less yards = bad. Are there things to fix? Yes. But these are summary judgements based on faulty assumptions.

I view this as something someone can remain curious about.

They are mostly the same unit that was in front of Allen last season albeit Ford was hurt and out of the lineup down the stretch. The struggles they had vs better 4-man rushes and opening running lanes have not vanished nor Allen's struggles against nickle and dime 2-3 deep zones shells. They are still pretty sloppy with unforced errors that they need to clean up, but they also know that they are giving up too many pressures so they have been pressing and jumping their snap count as well as holding. Teams started out last year playing Allen by blitzing bringing the 5th rusher and playing man. The oline picked those up long enough for Allen to eat that up and I think fans are glued to those successes. I believe Tennessee was the first to primarily pressure with 4 and drop 7 into coverage. Teams that copied that blueprint had the most success containing this offense so expect that from every opponent. KC, who was struggling last year covering receivers, sold out to stop the Bills passing in our playoff game. Five Thirty-eight had a great breakdown of the KC defense that stymied our offense. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-chiefs-defense-used-four-big-safeties-to-get-to-the-super-bowl/ "Spagnuolo deployed six defensive backs more in the AFC championship game than any other team has in a single game 2 since he became the Chiefs’ defensive coordinator at the start of the 2019 season. All told, the Chiefs used a 4-1-6 3-personnel package on an incredible 75 percent of their defensive snaps. But Spagnuolo wasn’t selling out to stop the pass completely. Instead of using three or four smaller cornerbacks to cover Stefon Diggs and the other Bills wide receivers, Spagnuolo trotted out bigger-bodied safeties to hedge his bets and help defend the run — just in case. There were four of those big safeties on most plays: Tyrann Mathieu, Juan Thornhill, Daniel Sorensen and L’Jarius Sneed. It wasn’t until late in the third quarter, when Mahomes and the Chiefs had taken a commanding 31-15 lead, that Spagnuolo ultimately switched to a more aggressive three-cornerback/three-safety form of coverage designed almost exclusively to stop the pass" This year even Blitzburgh shelved bringing the extra man which is uncharacteristic of that defense and stuck to keeping extra dbs and safeties and playing zone shells and using creative zone blitzes (still bringing 4) while spelling their better pass rushers by dropping dline players into shallow zones while bringing dbs and safeties from the slots to confuse & overload protections. I think I read that they only blitzed twice. So expect a sellout pass-first defense vs. our Bills every week. Hence the off-season focus of being able to run against those lighter boxes and safeties teams are using in the second level.

Don't take it too personally... it is frustrating when so many fans think teams are going to be caught by surprise or roll over for our Bills this year. They aren't - especially when the concensus opinion from NFL pundits and front offices was that the Bills were the 2nd best AFC team going into the season. Teams are copying what worked well to slow this offense down and are bringing their "A" game. But when your offense hangs over 30 pts against an NFL team folks need to step back and be a bit more realistic in their critiques. Too many fans are expecting air-Allen against decent secondaries and solid 4-man rushes. Teams are expecting a pass-first Bills team... they are not going to sneak up on anyone. If our opponents have the dogs up front to pressure with 4 and still stuff the run - coupled with solid secondaries then it is going to be tough sledding. The offense as a whole has things it needs to clean up, but when they can put together enough back-breaking drives to seal a win like this it is a good win.

Pittsburgh was playing them tough till Watt went out with a groin pull, they also lost DT Tyson Alualu real early so they did not have much of a rotation in the middle. They also lost Hayden and Bush to groin injuries on Friday so not really the same team we faced. Injuries are part of the game, but the Raiders lucked out facing a much less daunting Pittsburgh defense and the personnel losses really showed in the 2nd half.

Yet all great QBs are in fact very good "game managers". That term is overly used as a derogatory term that assumes limiting a QBs abilities rather than a necessary facet to being a successful QB in the NFL.

With a good defense, Allen just needs to do enough to win games and avoid things that make teams lose games. Brady over his career averaged around 260 Y/G but is one of the most successful QBs to play the game. Much of that is his efficiency (and a fair bit of preferential treatment by officials over the years) combined with solid defenses. NE was also pretty good about getting up on teams early and playing keep away. Gaudy QB stats alone do not win games, if they did then Deshawn Watson, Matt Ryan, and Kirk Cousins would not have been on sub-500 teams last season. Allen and this offense need to be efficient. Strike when they are in the red zone, avoid turnovers and poor field position and they will win most games. Until OBD gets some better talent on the o-line that allow deeper options to open up for Allen, running the ball and hitting quicker passes underneath to avoid the jail breaks will be necessary. I do like how Knox is starting so show up and make plays in the seams and behind those defensive shell looks... TE has been a missing element for this offense.

Doomed

Epenesa had a coming out party... If he keeps playing this way notice will be served to offensive coordinators around the league they need to account for him. I think teams are going to kick themselves for passing on Rousseau. May well end up the steal of the draft. Zimmer (a team development product) was pretty stout in the middle too with pressures, sack, and stopping the run. Star took some reps and that is a good thing if he can work himself back into game shape. Milano played an amazing game, all over the place and he and our safeties kept Gesicki in check. Edmunds was hitting the right gaps when he needed to fill... just a really good game by the whole defense. Tre was Tre and Wallace was playing a great game too till he got dinged... Dane Jackson stepped in nicely. They keep playing like this and they will give the offense time to figure things out against most teams as long as they take care of the ball.

This. The ends over Williams are taking a deeper speed rush which takes away the roll to the right which Allen (and all right-handed QBs) are most comfortable using to escape and extend plays. Teams have really studied our scramble drills too which have left slim pickings but a few jaw-dropping passes against the grain available to Allen. Williams is leaking a lot of pressures and Morse is not a good fit for their power runs or big NT bull rushes. We kind of saw this last year. It used to be the RDEs were more about containing plays and cleaning up and your LDE was your QB hunter. Teams really had to focus mainly on finding that LT to negate premier LDE pass rushers, but the NFL has changed and teams are lining up some really talented RDEs realizing that in a quick passing league pressures in a QBs face are almost as valuable as sacks. Will that lead to paying RTs more for elite play.... who knows? As it stands Williams is struggling the most - he knows it and his false starts are indicative that he is looking for any edge he can get... Ford has some grit and power, but needs to keep working on moving his feet and getting into better position to avoid holds and take advantage of his strength. Morse is a fantastic mobile pin and pull center being asked to power block. Feliciano is a good guard who will be exposed against better DTs. Overall I think they played a much better game - particularly Dawkins and Feliciano. Those two also had set a pretty low bar last week. Our offense sputters because as a unit these guys have not all come together blocking as a unit, but they are trending in the right direction and stayed committed to the run which paid dividends. I think, much like the injection of talent into the defensive line pass rush, Beane is going to look to upgrade the interior of the offensive line next offseason... I also expect Spencer Brown will start to push Williams for playing time at RT. Maybe Williams moves inside? Have read reports that he did not fare well there, but have never watched him play guard. Miami has a decent secondary too, so you cannot just evaluate our offense without tipping your hat to some stellar coverage by Miami's dbs and safeties.

Truth. If one plans to follow the Bills for a life time they can't let themselves get too high or too low after every game. They will wear out their ticker that way. It's a long season and it has just begun.

Lessons learned at home Taken with them on the road Bills get back on track Squish the fish and go Bills!

I am a fan of going no huddle shorter passes and such to help QBs establish rhythm. Josh is pretty effective at 2 min drills and it gives the oline a break from dline shifts, rotations, and complex stunts they use when they are given more time. Just one method to help an offense find their rhythm.... The higher a team climbs in expectations the steeper the fall when they stumble. We will see how this team responds.

The oline needs to bounce back with all of them on the same page. Even when we had 4 blockers doing their job, too often there would be one on the ground rolling past Allen blown up and beat or standing around looking sheepish after missing their guy. Not every play, but often enough to keep the offense from finding any rhythm. With 11 and 12 personnel I wonder if the DEs take such a deep speed rush off the edges as they do on empty 5-wide sets.... Seems they would be vulnerable to RBs and TEs releasing into the flat behind that on either side. Will be interested in seeing that game broken down by better football minds. I know that 5 vs. 4-man rush should give our offense the blocking numbers advantage (on paper), but better teams were often able to pressure our front 5 last year with 4 too. That is on our oline coach and Daboll to counter better. We had our chances this game, Pittsburgh capitalized on more of theirs and some pretty sketch calls on our secondary at key moments. Allen plays well against Miami so have hopes for a more focused game from him and our oline.