twoandfourteen

I'm not saying it means anything. I'm just appreciating the irony, that's all.

Just the threat of Allen's deep ball really opens up a defense. The entire field is in play at any time now with this kid under center -- it's definitely different than the "ground & pound" we've been stuck with and LONG overdue.

Just wanted to point that out. TT looked good in CLE tonight too.

This sports take is so hot, I need to take off my pants.

Well, I suppose you're right. There's still a slim chance that your defense will run something back for a TD to win the game. Because Tyrod sure as h*ll isn't going to make a play to win a game late. "The Bills (3-0) won courtesy of yet another Ryan Fitzpatrick-led rally, overcoming a 21-0 second-quarter deficit. It was reminiscent to what the Bills did in a 38-35 win over Oakland a week earlier, when they scored touchdowns on their final five possession to overcome a 21-3 deficit." http://boston.cbslocal.com/2011/09/25/brady-throws-four-picks-bills-beat-patriots-34-31/ I actually forgot about that Oakland game. They are both the same, they just lose in different ways. I guess we're both kind of right on this one.

Not converting key first downs or scoring points also singlehandedly loses games. (See: Playoff game vs JAX) Tyrod has lost many games for the Bills due to his lack of production. It's just not as obvious as a late INT. They are the same player: competent backups who can easily lose you a game.

Tell you what.... I won't even respond to this and will give you a chance to go look up Brian Hoyer's game log from 2017 and edit your post. As for the second point, it apparently went over your head. To answer your question, no -- no one else is making that connection except me. The reason for that is because there is such a dedicated effort around here to emphasize the mountain of "obstacles" poor ol' Tyrod had to overcome on his way to 180 yards passing every game. Miraculous! So, I give you JG as an example of a guy who also had obstacles -- a similar set of no-name weapons, no offseason preparation, moving to the other side of the country, and playing for a bad football team overall. The offense wasn't "designed for him", he wasn't even on the team until November. Yet, he managed to actually run a respectable passing offense. See what I'm getting at here?

Tell me who Jimmy Garappolo, Brian Hoyer, and CJ Beathard were throwing to out in SF. Because those three seemed to find ways to "push the ball downfield". Hell, JG didn't even start the season on that team. No OTAs, no training camp, nothing other than a month of practices and he was already putting up numbers that TT couldn't at his absolute best. http://pfref.com/pi/share/blOtJ JG put up a stat line of 20-33 for 334yds 1TD/1INT throwing to: Marquise Goodwin Kyle Juszczyk Garrett Celek Trent Taylor George Kittle Aldrick Robinson and the game-breaker himself... Louis Murphy.

With Tyrod Taylor as the QB, there really isn't much of a difference. You're most likely going to lose either way. He was like 3-20 when down by even a single point in the 4th Quarter.

Boys, go back and read what I wrote. Of course I am being selective. I selected the most crucial play of the 2017 Buffalo Bills season. I already explained why that particular play is significant -- more so than any other random play throughout the season. I am referring TO that specific variable. When that Dalton throw occurred, the Bills had exhausted all of their own opportunities to be in control of their playoff chances. They needed someone else to do something for them. THAT is the inarguable fact. Dalton misses, the Bills stay home. MJS -- it would actually be dumb to ask that question about 99.9% of the things that occurred prior to that. Except maybe the Zay Jones miss in Carolina. If TT connects there, the Bills have an extra win and that would have rendered Dalton's TD irrelevant. You two are free to discuss the Bills playoff chances with any other play this season. I'm only interested in this one.

Simple yes or no answer: If everything else in the 2017 NFL season remained exactly the same -- would the Bills have made the playoffs if Andy Dalton threw an incomplete pass on 4th & 12 against Baltimore?

I agree -- it takes a full season to get to the playoffs. I give TT 88% of the credit for putting the Bills in position to benefit from that Ravens loss to Cincy. 12% goes to Peterman/Webb for the Colts game. But without Dalton's heroics, Tyrod's Bills would have chalked up just another mediocre 9-7 season that would have gone right in the pile with all of the others. That is an inarguable fact. Would you have put your money on Tyrod to make a huge TD throw between two defenders on 4th & 12 with the playoffs on the line?

Nah, I think the fact that the Bills ultimately had their playoff ticket punched on a heroic 4th down throw that their own QB would never have even seen -- let alone attempt -- really says all that needs to be said.

"You're welcome."

That's a fair point. However, I would also like to point out that the Bills lost 20 games over the past three years with Tyrod Taylor as the starting QB. So, by this logic-- he had ample opportunities to rack up some "garbage time" yards. Yet, he still only broke through to the promised land one time... and it took him 5 quarters to do it. I think the disconnect here is that the "anti-300" crowd is using that metric in the context of "wins & losses" and the "300 yard games matter" crowd is using it in the limited context of "basic competence at the position".

"Usual 230" is being a bit generous, haha. Half the time, the guy was under 200. 44 Total Games Passing Yards 43 games under 300 - 97.7% 38 games under 280 - 86.3% 30 games under 230 - 68.1% 23 games under 200 - 52.2% 16 games under 180 - 36.3% 7 games under 130 - 15.9% Passing TDs Games with 3 passing TDs: 6 - 13.6% Games with 2 passing TDs: 7 - 15.9% Games with 1 passing TD: 19 - 43.1% Games with 0 passing TD: 12 - 27.2% 31 games with 1 or 0 passing TDs - 70.4% 38 games with 2 or fewer passing TDs - 86.3% 13 games with 2 or more passing TDs - 29.5% 12 games with 0 passing TDs - 27.7% 24 games under 230 & 1 or 0 TDs - 54.4%

It's not like Fitz was 2-14 every year and Tyrod was 13-3. They were both QB's of middling teams that won between 6-9 games a year. A couple of breaks either way. Really not that big of a difference. They are the same guy -- competent backups that are great to have in the locker room, but shouldn't be full-time starters. Tyrod Taylor being called "The guy that wins" is hilarious. A couple of nice games against Miami and Tyrod is now "the guy that wins". How about that W-L record when down by a single TD at any point in a game? Maybe you could tell me about all of Tyrod's clutch throws and game-winning drives late in the 4th Quarter? The abandonment of reality and absolute lowering of every possible standard when evaluating this player is borderline insulting.

And Taylor wasn't scoring points or getting first downs at the worst possible times. What's the difference?

Orton and Fitzy both had a bunch of 300+ yd games. Fitz had games of 307, 350, 337, 369 vs New England alone. Which is why the whole "Tyrod is the best QB the Bills have had since Kelly" notion is absolutely absurd. If anything, they are all at the same level, and the only reason TT is in that group is because he didn't turn the ball over. But he also didn't produce much offense. At least the other guys were trying to make plays. *Also -- TT needed 5 quarters to throw for 300+. He was around 280 or so at the end of regulation.

Yeah, that guy sucks.

I must have missed those posts. Can you give me a specific example? When you can't attack the argument, you attack the person. I'm still here talking, aren't I?

You explained this one far better than I could have. Nice post. Do carry on, Professor.

I'll admit I was really disappointed when that article came out in the Buffalo News, too. It's not like he had been lighting the world on fire and people were calling for him to be replaced. However, outside of that he's been a model for how a professional athlete should carry himself and represent his city. Had the on-field production been there, he would have been a perfect face of the franchise.

ATTENTION TBD FORUM MEMBERS: IMPORTANT POLICY CHANGE FROM THIS POINT FORWARD, ANY & ALL PLAYER EVALUATIONS - GOOD OR BAD - WILL AUTOMATICALLY BE FUNDAMENTALLY DETERMINED TO BE NULL & VOID UNLESS ACCOMPANIED BY APPROPRIATE FUNDAMENTAL STATISTICAL COMPARISONS TO EVERY SINGLE PLAYER TO HAVE PLAYED THAT POSITION. For example, the statement "Peyton Manning was a great QB because he passed for 71,940 yds in his career" is fundamentally meaningless unless the fundamental corresponding career passing yardage numbers is included for every NFL QB to have played between 1999 through 2015, while excluding any & all yardage fundamentally accumulated in 2011. Thank you for your cooperation with this fundamentally important matter. Pope Murph VI, of the "hard stats crowd" has spoken. ----- Do you see how absolutely ridiculous your argument is now? I have to admit, the incredible feats of mental gymnastics performed by the #TeamTyrod guys still fascinates me. It truly takes some special bending & twisting of reality, reasoning, & logic to legitimately attempt to argue things like "Passing yards are irrelevant when evaluating a QB" or "44 games isn't a large enough sample size" or "Defensive Coordinators don't waste time game planning to prevent guys like Ben Roethlisberger from throwing for lots of yards." Simply beautiful. Stuff like that is my favorite part of the ongoing Tyrod discussion. It's probably why I keep coming back to talk about it. I guess that's what happens when guys like you continue to argue the inarguable and defend the indefensible. Never change, boys. As for you claiming my statistical evidence is "sloppy & poorly communicated", well -- that is your personal opinion. Maybe you need to look at the passing data of every single NFL QB to determine if a throwing for less than 230 yards & 1 or 0 TDs over half the time is good or not. I've watched enough bad Bills offensive football to know that it's not. I am sorry if a basic breakdown of the number of games that a guy hits a certain level of production is confusing for you. I did try to make it as clear and easy to understand as possible, but perhaps I could have done a better job and it could be communicated better. Why don't you take the information about Tyrod's career as the Bills QB and come up with a better way to present it? Also, the "Dalton Line" was my own point of reference for the purposes of this exercise. He's a good-not-great, basic starting NFL QB. Tyrod is a class act and a great human being, but is nothing more than a high-end backup QB.

Tyrod's numbers are bad enough to stand on their own. There's really no need to take the fact that in 7 out of every 10 games the guy is giving you less than 230 yards passing and compare it to Tom Brady to realize that Taylor is not a very good NFL QB. But, since you asked so nicely, here's a comparison to Andy Dalton for perspective. (TT in parentheses) 45 Games - 2015-2017 9 games over 300 - 20% (1 - 2.2%) 36 games under 300 - 80% (43 - 97.7%) 32 games under 280 - 71.1% (38 - 86.3%) 20 games under 230 - 43.4% (30 - 68.1%) 10 games under 200 - 30.4% (23 - 52.2%) 9 games under 180 - 19.5% (16 - 36.3%) 2 games under 130 - 4.3% (7 - 15.9%) 1 game under 100 - 2.2%* (2 - 4.4%) *Only completed 3 of 5 passes for 59 yds. AD might have been injured in that game? 2 games with 4 pass TD - 4.3% (0 - 0%) 3 games with 3 pass TD - 6.5% (6 - 13.6%) 12 games with 2 pass TD - 26.0% (7 - 15.9%) 20 games with 1 pass TD - 43.4% (19 - 43.1%) 8 games with 0 pass TD - 17.7% (12 - 27.2%) Total Games with less than 230 yds passing & 1 or 0 passing TDs: Tyrod Taylor - 24 (54.4%) Andy Dalton - 12 (26.6%) Even by Daltonian standards, Taylor falls short. They could have run him 15x per game. Of course, he'd probably end up playing in only 3 or 4 of them all season if they did that.