twoandfourteen

This is exactly why I never understood the "Tyrod won't lose you games" argument. Not moving the ball and not scoring points will absolutely lose you a game. In fact, I would posit that 1 or 2 INTs is far less damaging to your chances of winning than only managing to score 3 points in a game. In fact, let's take a look.... NFL 2015-2017 Offense scores 3 points -- 0-23-0 .000 Offense scores less than 10 points -- 9-199-2 .048 Offense scores less than 17 -- 78-441-2 .152 (FYI - The Bills have the best winning percentage in the NFL when scoring 17 or fewer, 6-9/.400) - Full List Offense throws 1 INT -- 232-284-2 .450 Offense throws 2 INTs -- 65-168-0 .279 Offense throws 3+ INTs -- 7-83-0 .078 Here's one for the #teamtyrod guys: Offense scores more than 24 points -- 537-154-2 .776 - Full List *The Bills are 11th in games scoring 24 or more with 23. However, they are only 13-10 (.560) in those games, which ranks 30th. This suggests a couple of things: The defense could have been better over the past 3 years. There are probably quite a few blowouts where the Bills racked up a few scores after the game was out of reach to get to 24. Feel free to check into it if you are so inclined. I'm not. The Bills passing offense wasn't equipped to compete with many teams in a shootout. Interesting. The Bills scored more than 28 points 14 times, and they were 10-4 in those games.

So.... essentially the PFF rating system is telling us that Tyrod Taylor outperformed at least 20 other QBs this year?

No thanks.

Ok, sure. Sounds good to me. Couldn't possibly care any less about the OC, whoever it is. He'll be an 8th-year veteran. I think that ship sailed a long time ago.

I didn't look that deeply into the scores or individual games since I was simply looking at just basic production -- but I agree with you 100%, aside from maybe 1 or 2 games I really can't recall any late-game clutch heroics or plays he's made to bring a team back. I'll take a look into your question, because I'm wondering the same thing. There's so much about this QB that doesn't cut it. I'm amazed at the level of ardent, and delusional, supporters he had and still has.

He might as well have titled this article "Don't be a Tyrod." "What’s also carried Keenum, though, is his ability to leave the pocket and improvise when necessary. There’s a place for that, but it must be an offense’s side dish, not the entrée."

You obviously don't get it. If the Bills WRs could have pulled off 6-8" more of separation... Tyrod throws for 4500 & 50 TDs. It's clearly the WRs fault, as this not-at-all subjective and incredibly useful metric demonstrates.

Stay with me now... He avoids INTs because he doesn't throw for many yards or TDs. Defenders tend to protect the areas of the field most beneficial to the offense, such as the end zone or first down marker. So, Tyrod throws the ball out of bounds instead. INT avoided, but so is the first down or a TD. It's like robbing a bank -- but instead of stealing money because that's where the guards are, you grab a stack of deposit slips and run out the door.

Exactly. It's almost insane how poor the production has been. In only 3 years, Taylor has exactly a full season's worth of games under 180 passing yards. Then, add in 1 or 0 passing TDs in 7 out of every 10 games he plays. Has almost as many games with 0 passing TDs (12) as he has with 2 or more (13). Kind of mind-boggling, to be honest.

1. Mostly because he doesn't throw for many yards or TDs. 2. Yes, Taylor is the "Robin Williams of QBs". Those 3rd & Long checkdowns to Mike Tolbert were hilarious. 3. Hope you like holding penalties. 4. He has almost never done this. Define what you mean by "destroy". 5. I think this might be possible if the teams he is playing against only put 8 men on the field.

Finally, a voice of reason and rational thought.

I just looked at pretty much everything Taylor did over the course of three years. You are essentially saying that Tyrod was handicapped by various things: coaching, injuries, player movement, etc. right? Well, for this to be at all relevant over a span of three years then it would have to stand that no other QB was forced to adjust or manage similar things. We all know that's not even remotely true -- rarely is a situation 100% optimal. However, I suppose you might be able to make a case if you're looking to compare head-to-head performances on a single game or very small group of games basis. However, over the course of three years all of the extraneous stuff really tends to just cancel itself out with a large enough sample size, at least in my opinion. Pretty much every QB across the league deals with injuries, changing systems, players leaving, players coming in, whatever. There's really no way to accurately or account for those things. If there was, I certainly don't have the interest or motivation to analyze every little circumstance to see how it positively or negatively affects players. Here's the deal. Stuff happens throughout the season and from season to season. Good players are talented and skilled enough to adjust and maintain acceptable standards of production. Not-so-good players regress and struggle. Backup-quality players like Tyrod Taylor can produce relatively decent numbers when things are close to optimal. But when they aren't, they completely fall apart and the result is a spectacular cascade of total failure.

So this little exercise got me thinking... how can I continue to waste more time on pointless things today? And it hit me... I can see what a "comparable" QB's %s look like over the past 3 seasons. Since there is some discussion about him being the same QB as Taylor, how about a little look into the life and times of Alex Smith? I didn't give him the "Full Tyrod", but most of it is here. Tyrod #'s in parenthesis. Alex Smith - 2015-2017 46 games as the Chiefs QB (TT-44): INT Games with 3+ INT - 0 - 0.0% (1/2.2%) Games with 2 INT - 3 - 6.5% (0/0.0%) Games with 1 INT - 14 - 30.4% (13/29.5%) Games with 0 INT - 29 - 63.0% (30/68.1%) Games with 1 or 0 INT - 43 - 93.4% Games with 1+ INT - 17 - 36.9% Games with 2+ INT - 3 - 6.5% Passing Yards - AS Best Game: 386 TT Best Game: 329 7 games over 300 - 15.2% (1/2.2%) 39 games under 300 - 84.7% (43/97.7%) 35 games under 280 - 76.0% (38/86.3%) 20 games under 230 - 43.4% (30/68.1%) 14 games under 200 - 30.4% (23/52.2%) 9 games under 180 - 19.5% (16/36.3%) 2 games under 130 - 4.3% (7/15.9%) 0 games under 100 - 0.0% (2/4.5%) Passing TDs - AS Best Game: 4 TT Best Game: 3 2 games with 4 pass TD - 4.3% (0/0.0%) 3 games with 3 pass TD - 6.5% (6/13.6%) 12 games with 2 pass TD - 26.0% (7/15.9%) 20 games with 1 pass TD - 43.4% (19/43.1%) 9 games with 0 pass TD - 19.5% (12/27.2%) Games with 1 or 0 passing TD: 29 - 63.0% (31/70.4%) Games with 2 or fewer passing TD: 41 - 89.1% (38/86.3%) Games with 2 or more passing TD: 17 - 36.9% (13/29.5%) Rushing - AS Best Game: 78 TT Best Game: 79 2 Games with 70-79 rushing yds - 4.3% (3/6.1%) 4 Games with 60 rushing yds or more - 8.6% (6/13.6%) 5 Games with 50 rushing yds or more - 10.8% (10/22.7%) 41 Games with 49 rushing yds or less - 89.1% (34/77.2%) 15 Games with 25 rushing yds or more - 32.6% (33/75.0%) 31 Games with 24 rushing yds or less - 67.3% (11/25.0%) Passing & Rushing 2 games with 200+ passing yards & 50+ rushing yards - 4.3% (4/9.0%) 13 games with 150+ passing yards & 25+ rushing yards - 28.2% (27/61.3%)

Nope, not really. To me, it doesn't matter who the receivers are when the QB responsible for delivering the ball just can't do it. Gronkowski's greatest strength is his ability to out-muscle any defensive player for the ball. Brady throws it to him whether he's covered or not. Taylor just refuses to do that. As an aside, I've sometimes wondered what would have become of Gronkowski had the Bills drafted him. I think he probably would have had a couple of meh-to-decent seasons, left in FA, and most likely gone on to have a decent, if not unspectacular, career. Certainly not the all-world, all-time great he became with TB12 throwing at him. Well, unless he landed somewhere with Rodgers, Brees, Manning or Rivers.

All very true. The guy is an excellent example of what you would want in a professional athlete. Works hard, great teammate, great citizen... couldn't ask for more. Except when it comes to actually performing the requirements of his job on the field. There, he is severely lacking in just about every capacity.

I look at it this way.... You're out at the bar and start chatting up a really nice girl. Things are going very well throughout the night. She asks you for a ride home. You get back to her place... and she says "goodnight", slams the door and shuts off the light, leaving you standing on the porch. I mean, I guess you could say you "went home" with her... but did you really, though? 298 isn't 300.

He had 48 yards passing in OT. So at the end of regulation, he had 281 yards passing.

So -- aside from my own burning commitment to procrastination -- the impetus for putting that list together really stemmed from a desire to provide a resource for people to use when the inevitable "BILLS ARE SO STUPIDZ AND RACIST!!!!!" scorching hot takes start rolling in from the national & social media when the team parts ways with Tyrod Taylor. Simply pick your favorite Tyrod stat from the list above and go to town. There should be an answer for just about anything thrown our way over the next few months. Plus it was kind of interesting to really take a look at where the narratives surrounding Taylor come from, and if they are based in any statistical reality. As I was going along, it occurred to me that what I was doing was really defining what exactly we have watched over the past 3 years. "He doesn't turn the ball over" - TRUE. He has not thrown an INT in 68.1% of his games. "His passing numbers don't reflect his rushing contribution." - MOSTLY FALSE. Only 61% of his games has he thrown for more than 150 yards and rushed for more than 25. That means that for roughly 40% of his games as a starting QB in Buffalo, he has personally been responsible for LESS than 175 yards of total offense. (Let's be honest, 175 yds of total offense from your QB is kind of a low bar to cross.) I could keep going, but I think you get the idea. I used the "play index" tool at pro-football-reference.com to pull all of the stats above. I've been screwing around with it for the past few days, and once you get the hang of it, it doesn't take long at all to find information. It can be found here: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/pgl_finder.cgi

Pretend for a minute that I am an agent and you are a GM. I call you up and describe the following QB to you and ask for an $18M contract: Has not thrown an INT in 68% of his games. Over 200 yards passing in 48% of his games. Over 50 yards rushing in 23% of his games. Has nearly as many games without a passing TD (12) as he does with 2 or more passing TDs (13) Has only 4 games with 0 passing TDs & 1 rushing TD. Has thrown for 2 TDs in 16% of his games. Has thrown for 3 TDs in 14% of his games. 1+ passing TD and 1 rushing TD in 23% of his games. You would hang up on me instantly.

Have you ever watched the Army-Navy Game?

Since there was quite a bit of consternation regarding the omission of rushing stats in the previous TT breakdown, I have included it here. Mods, please either merge or delete the previous thread as you see fit. TYROD TAYLOR 44 total games as the Bills QB: INTs Games with 3 INT: 1 - 2.2% Games with 2 INT: 0 - 0.0% Games with 1 INT: 13 - 29.5% Games with 0 INT: 30 - 68.1% Games with 1 or 0 INT - 43 - 97.7% Games with 1+ INT - 14 - 31.8% Games with 2+ INT - 1 - 2.2% INT W-L 0 — 19-11 1 — 4-9 3 — 0-1 Passing Yards 43 games under 300 - 97.7% 38 games under 280 - 86.3% 30 games under 230 - 68.1% 23 games under 200 - 52.2% 16 games under 180 - 36.3% 7 games under 130 - 15.9% Passing TDs Games with 3 passing TDs: 6 - 13.6% Games with 2 passing TDs: 7 - 15.9% Games with 1 passing TD: 19 - 43.1% Games with 0 passing TD: 12 - 27.2% 31 games with 1 or 0 passing TDs - 70.4% 38 games with 2 or fewer passing TDs - 86.3% 13 games with 2 or more passing TDs - 29.5% 12 games with 0 passing TDs - 27.7% Rushing 3 games with 70-79 rush yds - 6.1% (2-1) 6 games with 60 rush yds or more - 13.6% (4-2) 10 games with 50 rush yds or more - 22.7% (6-10) 34 games with 49 rush yds or less - 77.2% (17-17) 33 games with 25 rush yds or more - 75.0% (18-15) 11 games with 24 rush yds or less - 25.0% (5-6) 4 games with 10 rush yds or less - 9.0% (1-3) 14 games with 1 Rush TD - 31.8% (7-7) 30 games with 0 Rush TD - 68.2% (16-14) Passing & Rushing 4 Games with 200+ PYDS, 50+ RYDS - 9.0% (1-3) 7 Games with 175+ PYDS, 50+ RYDS - 15.9% (4-3) 27 Games with 150+ PYDS, 25+ RYDS - 61.3% (15-12) 1 Game with less than 125 PYDS, 25 RYDS - 2.2% (0-1) Combined TDs 2 Games with 3 Pass TD, 1 Rush TD - 6.8% (1-1) 1 Game with 2 Pass TD, 1 Rush TD - 2.2% (0-1) 7 Games with 1 Pass TD, 1 Rush TD - 15.9% (4-3) 4 Games with 0 Pass TD, 1 Rush TD - 9.0% (2-2) 21 Games with 1+ Pass TD, 0 Rush TD - 47.7% (13-8) 8 Games with 0 Pass TD, 0 Rush TD - 18.8% (2-6) Some lists for context, just click the link: 2015-2017 QBs with 200 yds passing/50 yds rushing in game http://pfref.com/tiny/HufzQ 2015-2017 QBs with 175 yds passing/50 yds rushing in game http://pfref.com/tiny/1ekux 2015-2017 QBs with 175 yds passing/25 yds rushing in game http://pfref.com/tiny/B58DG 2015-2017 QBs with 275 yds passing/35 yds rushing in game http://pfref.com/tiny/wxycM

Because the purpose of the post was to isolate and identify the overall performance trends in his passing game. QB rushing yards are largely irrelevant and ridiculously overvalued by the #teamtyrod, probably because there is no other positive statistical measure for Taylor to argue for his value. I'm actually curious to see how his rushing #s correlate with wins, so maybe I'll take a look at that later. As for now, I have to get back to more important things... those fries aren't going to cook themselves, you know.

1. The W/L record had nothing to do with the original post, because it is focused simply on Taylor's passing production. Wins and losses depend on so many other factors, that it really has no impact on evaluating Taylor's value as a QB. What we are doing here simply isolating his passing ability and projecting what we can expect moving forward. Also, 2 or 3 games above .500 isn't really anything to be bragging about. 2. He's actually probably worse. 3. He absolutely is, as illustrated by the numbers in the beginning of this post. High-end backup, all day long. 4. I see this thrown around all the time. It's simply not true. Find me 10 starting QBs in the NFL with at least 2 years of experience that throw 2 TDs or less in 86% of their games, or 1 or 0 in 70%. Sure you can. You get that TD:INT ratio by being as non-existent in the passing game as possible, and a .500 record on the strength of an all-world RB and opportunistic defense.