Shaw66

This is great. Thanks. I agree completely. I'm glad you clarified your point. Actually, I suppose it may be that I just missed the point in the first place. Humility is the key. I don't score high on the humility range, but at least I get that the gap between what real experts, the people in the business, know and what all the rest of us know pretty wide. I don't how many times I've said something like, "look, I don't know. I'm just looking at the decisions that have been made and trying to figure out why they made them." I don't always assume that Bills management was right; I just assume that they had some pretty good reasons for doing what they did, reasons that go beyond what I can understand. Reasons based on knowledge I don't have and conclusions driven by years of experience in the field. So, yeah, I agree. It's the attitude that says, "I've watched a lot of football and I understand this stuff," that bothers me. Truth is, you pretty much can't possibly understand what McDermott and Beane understand. And I think @Rampant Buffalo put it in a very interesting way - knowledge and insight. The area where I have some sympathy with those who aren't always so humble is the question of whether McDermott is good enough. Is he stuck in a rut, or is he still in the process of accumulating insight? And even if he's accumulating insight, how long is going to take for him to accumulate enough? Of will he ever? After all, millions of people spent their lives thinking about all sorts of things, but there was only one da Vinci. It's time for McDermott to paint a Mona Lisa.

Absolutely. A lot of great stuff here.

That's all true, and as I've said, I generally agree with the point. However, I still am not prepared to dismiss the views of people on this forum, or to say that they are never right. Some people are just good at some things. Some people here, for example, are good athletes in their own right, and I do believe that it often takes one to know one - that is, I believe that some athletes are just good at looking at other athletes and knowing, somehow, whether the guy can play or not. It's not intuition, but it's intuitive. My intuitive response to Sammy Watkins was wrong; my intuitive response to CJ Spiller was correct. Consequently, I read what people say here with interest, even though I may believe that in general, the Bills' staff, particularly this staff, has better information and more experience, and spends more time evaluating players and the Bills needs, than the average poster here.

The question is not whether doctors or NFL general managers are wrong sometimes. The question is whether they are wrong about medical diagnoses or football players, as the case may be, more often than you or I. If I have a pain in my chest, I'm going to the hospital, not Two Bills Drive. Yes, the doctors in the hospital may be wrong, but that isn't the question. Yes, NFL front offices could get better at player evaluation. However, given the nature of the problem, they never can be perfect. Maybe it was possible two years ago to predict what would happen to Rashee Rice, but not with any certainty. There was no way to predict Von Miller's most recent knee injury. In both cases, what happened to them was possible, and the teams that acquired them MIGHT have chosen not to acquire those players because of the perceived risk, but a GM who says no to every player with a perceived risk will fail miserably. The nature of the job is to do the best you can with the information and the resources you have. GMs have better information and better resources than any of us, and that makes them quite likely to be better at player evaluation than you or I. Doctors, too. I've mentioned GM, the book about Ernie Accorsi as GM with the Giants. The author describes going to a Penn State game to scout players. Accorsi was watching the game and said. "Look at Posluzni's feet. He makes the correct first step every time." I've been watching pro football for 65 years, and I've never casually noticed anyone's feet, and if I did, I wouldn't know what the right first step is supposed to be. When I go to the hospital with chest pains, I want the medical equivalent of Ernie Accorsi, even if he did bet on Jeremy Shockey.

Not that's it's relevant to anything (other than a collective intelligence), I read somewhere that if you ask 1000 people how many jelly beans are in a jar of jelly beans, their answers will be all over the place. However, the average of all their guesses usually comes out remarkably close to the actually number. Still, I like just watching the Bills and what they do, primarily on the field. The off season is a bunch of guys just trying to give the coaches the best combination of pieces to put on the field, guys who know a lot about football. It's interesting to me, but it's all just prelude to the games.

Hondo - It will come as no surprise to many around here that I generally agree with what you said. The Bills accumulate more data, probably by a factor of ten or more, than any of us here has available to evaluate players, whether they are coming out of college or they are free agent veterans. And that information is valuable. However, I think you're a bit unfair to posters here. There are a lot of people here who actually spend a lot of time reading, studying, and watching film. Not as much as the Bills do, but a lot nevertheless. (And the law of diminishing returns works here, too. The first ten hours of study is generally more valuable than the second ten, and the second ten is more valuable than the third ten. After a while, the extended study is just producing data, but not knowledge.) Those people are learning things, and when they post here they allowing all of us to have the benefit of the time and thinking they put into their work. Yes, there's a bit of group-think that takes over, and that is a problem, but it does not alter the fact that a lot of people share a lot of interesting information here that educates all of us. I tend to trust the Bills over posters here, because they're professionals, they're smart, and they're committed. But I also value the thinking of people here who put in the time to have intelligent and informed points of view about the team's personnel decisions.

That's an interesting point, but the response is the same. I can have a point of view about the philosophy the Bills seem to have, and mine might be better than theirs. However, the PROBABILITY that mine is better than theirs is very small. The people running the Bills, just like the people running most other franchises, each have years, even decades, invested in watching, learning, and growing with pro football, and that experience is something I cannot replicate by watching ESPN are reading the Athletic. It's fun to think about and talk about what the Bills are doing and what they should do, but I think the chances are slim that any of us a better understanding of what needs to be done than Beane and McDermott and their staff.

Very much my reaction, too. Hasn't fit in on three NFL teams. He's going to have to be a different guy if he wants a spot on the Bills' 53. I'd think he's on a short leash.

After I watched his highlight reel, my reaction was "Mike Evans." He's not as big Evans, at least not yet, and he isn't quite as physically tough as Evans, but he makes you wonder why this guy is open so much, just like Evans. Not the fastest, not the quickest, not anything except rock solid catching ability. Feed off each other is correct. Josh will love throwing to him, and if that's true, he'll be getting playing time sooner rather than later.

You know, I really hadn't seen it until you described it. You're right! He is most likely to become the answer to prayers. And when prayers start getting answered, Josh is unbeatable. Of course all of this Keon will dominate talk is most likely wishful fan-think, and the reality may be uglier. But however it plays out, ultimately I think you're right - Josh and Keon are going to be a pair, the main event. The others will be role players in the big show - Kincaid and Shakir and Samuel. Even if it isn't a big deal in total yards over the season, some of the plays are going to be big plays. Whether he knew it or not, Josh has been waiting for a guy just like Keon.

This is a great description of how I see it, too. No one will be the key guy, until someone becomes a threat. The real question about the success of this group of receivers will be what they can do AFTER they go "don't let Samuel win deep and force Kincaid to break off his routes short rather than threaten the seam." How do they adjust and continue to have success? Put another way, if defenses are taking away what you do best, what or who allows you to take advantage of the defensive schemes they're using? That's when someone, Shakir or Samuel or Coleman or Kincaid has to step up.

And not simply technique, but getting used to the level of talent. He'll be covered MUCH better, every week, and that's what will force-feed him new and sharper technique. He'll need the enhanced skills to deal with the caliber of defender he'll see. That's hard work, raising your level of play like that. For a few, they're naturally there, but for a lot of rookies, it takes a year or two. The good news is that he seems understand completely that that is what he has to do. And he seems to have he mindset to get right to work at that goal. I agree, he could improve quickly. The ingredients seem to be there for him to be really good as early as midseason. It's just that not everyone, ingredients or not, makes that leap that quickly. The Bills would love it if he exploded, but I don't think they need that out of him. I think the Bills' plan is to get 700-900 yards out of him, beginning early in the season and building from there. They expect over 1000 from someone else - Shakir or Kincaid or Samuel, and 600-800 from the other two. One guy above 1000 and three others from maybe 600-900. Then you get miscellaneous other receivers, including Knox, the running backs, etc. get another 600-800. 4,000 yards. Not a lights out number, but if you're running a truly balanced attack, you just aren't putting the ball in the air as much in a pass=first philosophy.

Thanks for this. I'd only say that, having seen and heard Coleman for a week now, and seeing what the Bills saw, I seriously doubt that they think they'll have to wait for year three. I'm sure they expect him to move into serious playing time in year one, just like Rousseau, Kincaid, Cook, and others. And I agree with that assessment. He has special physical talent, and he's tuned in to what the position takes. I expect he'll be soaking up information from last week through Labor Day, and the Bills will get him the field in live action pretty quickly. (They started Edmunds from day 1, and he had more to learn than Coleman.)

Well, after losing the opener to the Jets, they won three in a row by scores of 38-10, 37-3, 48-20, before a trip to London changed everything. I don't care who the opponents were, I wouldn't call those lopsided scores "garbage."

Actually, what I care about is who's right come December. In September, Harmon might be right. After all, after the Jets game last year, the Bills came out absolutely smokin', and I don't expect that kind of start again. I think in December, you'll be right, because the young talent will be making an impact then.

Frankly, I think you need to have a little faith in Beane and McDermott. I hear all of what you say, and I saw Bado's language that you quoted. I think your fears are unfounded. McDermott doesn't put guys on the field for extended plays if they can't do what they're expected to do. They will move Coleman along at the pace that is appropriate for him. I don't know Xs and Os, but I think you're overly concerned about him getting off the line of scrimmage. First, in his first snaps in the regular season, the coaches are going to put him in position to get easy releases, however they do it. They're going to put him in positions where he can succeed. In other words, I am confident they understand the "path to success" idea, and they will be mindful of that. In other words, I don't think Bado's correct (surprise, surprise) that the Bills will throw him out there because they need a #1 receiver. He'll play as he's ready to play. I'm not ready to assume that Coleman will not have a major role early in the season. He may grow into that role faster than we think. But on the assumption that he simply isn't ready to carry a big load, then I can't tell you who the starting group will be. I think Beane's not done working on the receiver room, but if he is, it's because they're confident they can get it done in the front half of the season while they're waiting for Coleman to get up to speed. Personally, I think we'll be seeing a lot of Coleman by game six, if not earlier. I think they'll find enough ways for him to succeed that he'll start seeing the field regularly, and once that happens, he'll start making plays that get the attention of the defenses. I was just looking at his college stats. Maybe he benefitted from step down in competition at Florida State, but 11 receiving touchdowns in 50 catches is eye-opening, as is #3 nationally in punt returns. In his early snaps, I think the Bills are going to be looking for opportunities where he can get open with some room to run after the catch. I'm not worried. Sure, he could flop, but I don't think so.

Cook will have to be pretty good if he's going to keep Thomas and Tomlinson on the bench. Sometimes I think I've just gone completely homer on this stuff, but the fact is that I'm not only interested in seeing Davis on the field, I'm interested in seeing all of the top five picks on the field. By the end of the season we could see Coleman, Bishop and Van Pran-Granger starting, and Carter and Davis in significant roles.

You know, what you say is such good example of the fact that there different ways to look at a team. It's absolutely correct - how could the team be in a worse position now than they were then. They are much better off, physically. Of course, the real question is the roster as good today as it was a year ago at this time? That takes Bernard and Milano out of the comparison, and the secondary, too. Depends when you look. Nevertheless, I think your take is correct. That team last year won 5 out of six down the stretch - or whatever - to make the playoffs and win the division, and they did with the team you describe. If those guys, in that shape, could be that good, these guys have a chance to be much better.

Now we're starting to find out why this guy was drafted. This guy has some outstanding physical attributes that we've all seen on film, and it's becoming clear that he has a real head on his shoulders. We're seeing multiple interviews that show his maturity, his dedication, his competitiveness, and now this. It's a one-minute seminar in the details of pass receiving. He's a serious dude. I'm realizing that Keon is more than I first imagined.

Why? The man's life has changed totally in two years. In such situations, some people reevaluate what's important to them. Happens often. I wasn't making a prediction, but under these circumstances, anything is possible.

It just makes me sad, for all of them. Kim, Terry, the children. Terry's going to do what he has to do, whatever that may be. He may stay the course, he actually be thinking about getting out.

I don't recall anything from Beane about moving up in the fourth. He said he wanted to move up in the second to get Bishop, but he couldn't find a dance partner. Fortunately, Bishop fell to him.

All indications are that McGovern is the center and Edwards is the left guard going into camp, and in both cases it's there job to lose. Going into camp, I'd guess that The Bills like McGovern over Edwards, and like that tandem at Center and Guard, better than any tandem with Van Pran-Granger. It's really that tandem that matters. McGovern is probably better at guard than Edwards, so the battle in camp probably is McGovern and Edwards vs. Van Pran-Granger and McGovern. And Jake, Saturday wasn't half bad. For sheer toughness (arm length aside) Torrence, Van Pran-Granger and McGovern suits me just fine.

I mentioned something the other day that I liked about this draft, which is that they took guys with significant upside throughout the draft. Coleman, Bishop, Carter, Davis, Van Pran-Granger, Ulofoshio, Solomon, Grable, Hardy, and Clayton. Each one is a guy who, if he pans out, will end up being a bargain, and each is a guy who actually could pan out. .

Fifth round picks usually are projects of some sort. This is no exception. Have the Bills invested in an arm-stretching machine yet?