Shaw66

And one more thing: Imagine being a Buffalo Bills player as these days approached, wondering if your team was going to do anything. Imagine how those guys are feeling tonight. The Bills ask a lot of their players, and they tell them that they will get them the help they need. Well, tonight those guys are 100% sold on their team. Even AJ and Rousseau and Basham, they're like, "hell, yeah!" Hughes and Addison? Well, I'm sure they're worried personally, but they're in awe of what there team can accomplish. Oliver? How do you think Oliver feels tonight? Allen? He wants to lace 'em up tomorrow morning. Diggs? Are you kidding? Diggs is sold. If the Bills are telling him he needs to restructure to make some room, he's saying "where do I sign?"

I don't know who the first is, but I think this raises another aspect of this deal. Was there a Super Bowl winner on the team last season? Did Sanders win won? At Denver? At Pittsburgh? Bills definitely had a meltdown at the end of the KC game, and I put it on McDermott. But one takeaway from that game is that the team needs some leadership from a proven winner. I mean leadership from Jerry Hughes and Micah Hyde is nice, and Allen is fine, but he's still a kid. Miller is a guy who can stand up in the locker room and say, "All right, I'm gonna tell you how it is. Listen up!"

I don't know if this is in response to some other post, but this is a really interesting point. No leaks, no nothing about any of these guys, then breaking news.

Buddy Nix would have been taking a nap.

Miller's already made $150 million in his career. This certainly is a nice final payday. Holy smokes! I assume Beane knows what he's doing, because he pretty much always does. Amazing move.

As long as the Pats get a couple more compensatory picks, it won't be a problem.

Hey, @Hapless: We had this really good discussion a few hours ago, and I ended by saying this: Well, it only took a half a day to see whether Beane bought your approach to the problem! Incredible

The Bills are way past that in the draft. They are sure about character and attitude before they make their selection. They've been very clear about that.

I'm not a hockey fan, but it's absolutely baffling to me that the Bills can be this good and the Sabres can be that bad.

Well, one thing we know is that McDermott and Beane are not stupid and do their homework. In my mind there is very little chance that they haven't already gotten past this concern. And there's very little chance that Miller doesn't have the attitude to fit into this defense - that's always the first question for McBeane. They sure as heck weren't going to burn tens and tens of millions of dollars on a guy who didn't fit. The fact that they signed him means there's little question about the kind of impact he'll have on the defense, if he stays healthy. Bills used Addison almost exclusively as an edge rusher last year. Imagine Miller playing where Addison was. Whew!

I came into this thread to say the same thing. Maybe he'll reconsider, again. But this time Beane will say the piggy bank just got busted open.

While I was writing what you quoted, I hadn't seen the news about Miller. Holy *****! One thing I said a few times in the past few weeks is that Beane always, always does something we don't see coming.

The Bills built their Super Bowl team before there was a salary cap. There's pretty much no way today to have a Hall of Fame quarterback, two Hall of Fame receivers, a Hall of Fame running back, and a Hall of Fame edge rusher on the same team, as Cornelius Bennett, Daryl Talley, Steve Tasker, and a bunch of other really good players. There's no point in saying the Bills should acquire great talent for Allen like they did for Kelly. It's no longer possible.

I wasn't raising Megatron or Donald to show that you have to draft them. I was responding to your statement that when you draft stars, you can't afford to pay them when they come off their rookie deals. If you draft a guy who shows in four years that he's going to the Hall of Fame, you pay him. And, yes, it does matter whether you draft Megatron or get him in free agency, for several reasons. First, as I just said, if you have a Megatron or Donald, he's not going to hit free agency. Second, most of the guys who do make it to free agency may have had some good-looking years, but they are not sure things like the superstars. Or, they're superstars on their third contract, like JJ Watt. So, there's risk in the free agent market. If you pay big time and the guy craps out, it really hurts. If you draft a sure-fire star and he craps out, he hasn't ruined your cap. Third, I wrote about this somewhere today. If you're building for the long term, you're objective is to have the best talent you can have at the lowest price. Drafting Josh Allen is much better than signing Josh Allen after his fifth year, because over the his career, if you've drafted him, the average cost per year of having him is lower. It's kind of like buying Apple stock. Sure, you can buy it today, at full market price, and it's probably going to be a good performer for you. But some other guy bought it thirty years ago, or even twenty or ten years ago. Today, both buyers are getting the same good performance out of Apple, but the guy who bought it early, at the lower price, has done better with his money. There's a lot of good sense built into how McBeane are doing it. The only real question, I think, is the one that some people raise, which is whether all of this is based too much on averages - it's great to have the best averages over the long term, but averages don't win conference championship games - players do.

But that plan is unlikely. You aren't going to get good players on favorable contracts, because if they're good and on good contracts, their team doesn't want to trade them. And David Andrews was an undrafted free agent, the same as a draft pick except even better. That's exactly the model the Bills are following: Find rookies and undeveloped young free agents and let them emerge into someone useful. And by the way, if you draft a player who turns out to be elite, you find a way to pay him when his rookie contract is over. Like Megatron. You pay him. The Rams paid Aaron Donald.

You're right about this. Oliver may still surprise us, and it's too early to rule out Rousseau, but Beane has found elite only once.

This is the opposing view, really well stated. I will admit to being an adherent to the philosophy you describe, although I've been somewhat won over by McBeane, because I'm homer. I remember our previous GM saying once you have room for six relatively big contracts. He said the six contracts are for the QB, left tackle, premier edge, premier corner, and one more somewhere for each of the offense and defense. It struck me as the right formula. Problem is that when I looked around, not all the winning franchises were built that way. Certainly not the Patriots, and I was hard-pressed to find many others. What you say is a simpler, more flexible version of the same thing - you have to have a few big contracts, because you need a few premier players, not just the QB. Makes sense to me. Problem is, it's pretty clear that McBeane don't believe that's how you build long-term success. They seem to be of the view that the way you win is (1) get your QB and (2) fill up your roster with a lot of good players (but not necessarily great). They think greatness will emerge. Your view is (1) get your QB, (2) get one or two other elite players at key positions, and (3) fill up your roster with a lot of good players. The difference between the two approaches is that your step (2) limits the quality of your step (3) by eating $15 million of cap space a year. I'm not arguing with it - I'm just examining what it means to go one way or the other. McBeane seem to think that they don't have to acquire elite guys in your step (2), that if they evaluate talent well and are strategic in their drafting, an elite guy or two will emerge from the draft. So, what we see from Beane is stockpiling draft picks so he can trade up in round one when he sees a guy who is too good to have fallen, and so he can trade up in round 2 for more or less the same reason. He's done it over and over. As I said earlier, as we watch this team mature, it will be interesting to see if Beane goes after an elite veteran in free agency here or there. Hasn't done it yet.

Too bad to lose him. I liked the prospect of him being on the field. A nice, new dimension to the offense. One to the next idea.

I'm 75 years old. All I've been doing here is try to explain what McBeane are doing to help understand why you're not likely to see them chase that one "guy who can help push us over." I don't think it's happening. McDermott's system is not a "one guy" system, except when it comes to the quarterback.

I think it's important to distinguish between "priorities" and "holes." The Bills don't have any holes, and that's a good thing. They have a starting lineup that includes Neal or Jackson at the corner opposite White, they have a starting QB, they have plenty of starting edge rushers, and they have two or three tight ends. Those guys they have may not be the guys you like, but they are starter-caliber players in the NFL - they've demonstrated it. The draft and the rest of free agency is about getting better, not about filling holes. There are months to go. Bills will bring home some talent in the draft, and the free agent surprises will continue through June. Then there will be the usual collection of signings just to fill out the training camp roster. The most important needs, as far as I've viewed them, all have been met - interior defensive line, guard, and running back. And people who point out that year after year Beane didn't bring home that killer dress or that new Porsche have to get used to the fact that Beane NEVER spends that way. He shops at thrift stores and the Chevy dealer. Then he goes to the annual technology and electronics show in Las Vegas (or the NFL's version of it, called the draft), and buys some of the latest technology.

Yes, there's a chance. But I'm not holding out hope. Although I think coaching is important and that players clearly can and do grow in the NFL, I also think that most players show you something from the beginning that suggests what they might become. Cooper Kupp wasn't an instant starter, but the Rams knew they had something. Milano wasn't a starter his rookie season, but everyone could see that he had something that showed promise. I think expectations of Oliver were too high, mine included, but even as a rookie, he showed SOMETHING, and he's improved from year to year. We all like the idea of Ford - size, pedigree, etc. - but we rarely see him do anything that makes us say, "Yeah, just give us some more of that." And we haven't seen him improve. It's possible there's a coach out there with the key that unlocks Ford's talent, but I think it's unlikely.

I'm amazed whenever I hear from a guy like you, who actually has some understanding of how it all works. There was a time when I was more interested in and had a better understanding, but I eventually decided I didn't care all that much about it - just hope the people managing the cap for the Bills know what they're doing. I agree, it's uncharted territory for the Bills, but I think it isn't a mystery to McBeane. They've been living in cap-world for fifteen years, and they've learned along the way. I do think it's interesting to see the personnel themes become clear over the years. Keep acquiring draft capital, and use draft capital to acquire your stars, including Diggs. Don't buy top talent in free agency. Keep your good drafted talent (not just your stars, like Allen, but also the second tier guys like Milano. It's like the objective is to have a core of ten to fifteen guys who are the heart of your team (your stars and your second tier), and continue to add to that core, because some will be leaving. Then fill out your team with guys who will follow the lead of that core, guys who will come and go but who need to be the right guys to work with the core. Like Levi Wallace - he was never going to be a core player, but he was a solid contributor. You know you're going to lose him, because he needs a good payday somewhere along the line, and he isn't your core, so you won't give him the payday. No surprise, having seen and heard McDermott for several years now, that this is a very disciplined approach. McDermott believes in it, and he knows that making work requires deep, honest, personal relationships with his players. He's honest with Wallace about his future, he's honest with Milano, and he's honest with Allen. It's a system that promises Allen that he's always going to be surrounded by talent, it promises Milano that he can be part of a winning program, and it promises Wallace that he's going to be pushed and trained to be the best player he can be, so that he can earn that payday. Easier said than done, but I think we're watching it happen.

So, this is where the front office guys are earning their money. It's not really "dead" cap if the guy is still playing for you. It does reduce the amount of cap room you have in a future year, for sure, but if the guy is still productive in your lineup, it hurts less. All you've done is averaged the cost of the guy across the years he's playing for you. The restructured deals are typically with guys the Bills project will be around to cover the "dead" cap. They think Hyde will. Presumably they think Milano will. It's related to what I just said in the thread about why McBeane don't sign superstars in free agency. In both cases, they're considering the average cost of the player over his playing career. Still, there is an element of kicking the can down the road here, because dead cap is dead cap. But the good teams, and the Bills are one of those, seem to know how to manage it, year after year, to keep a steady stream of talent coming and staying in the building.

You know, I've come around to be skeptical about the value of stars at any position other than QB. Paying top dollar for the best this or that just doesn't seem to work. A few years ago, however, I would have made an exception for JJ Watt, and now, I'll grant you, I'd make an exception for Aaron Donald. The guy is a consistent game wrecker. He's amazing. But I haven't been talking about what I would do; I've been talking about how McDermott and Beane view it. If I can see how special Arnold is, McDermott can, too. When you think about it, however, Donald doesn't fit McDermott's scheme very well. First, he forces you to abandon the d-line rotation that McDermott thinks is valuable to the team. If you have Donald, you simply cannot have him sitting on 40-45% of the defensive snaps. There's more, though. What happens when you've rebuilt your defensive line approach around Donald and he gets injured? You've lost the ability to do all the things you on defense, because this guy isn't there demanding double-teams. With the rotation they play, they can always play it, and an injury to a particular guy doesn't change everything. Plus, there's this: I don't know if GMs think about it this way, but I think it's valid to consider how much a player brings you and how much he costs per year. When you begin measuring average cost per year over the career of a player, it's much much cheaper to get good players in the draft than in free agency. Look at Allen's cost per year over the first ten years of his career. He cost $21 million for his first four years and $258 million for his next six. That's $279 million over ten years, or $28 million a year. That's much better than the $45 million a year you'd have to pay him if you acquired him in free agency. So, if you play that out over all your key positions on the team, you can see how much cheaper it is to get your best talent in the draft, rather than free agency. If you're buying you talent in free agency, you're always paying top dollar, and then the cap destroys your ability to sign all your role players. So, the Bills look at Aaron Donald (or Kahlil Mack or someone else who was actually available) and they have the discipline to say no, for two reasons: (1) They don't want to build their defense around one person, because when he goes down you're in trouble, and (2) Long-term cap management dictates that the smart thing to do is find your Aaron Donalds in the draft. In other words, McDermott's plan is to load his team with Hydes and Hugheses and Milanos, because a team full of those guys can be really good, year in and year out, and then to find his Allens and Donalds in the draft. And there's another thing in play here. When the guys you've signed are really good but not the total studs that Donald and some others are, they're less likely to leave in free agency. The Bills get very good play, but not superstar play, from Hyde and Poyer and Hughes and Milano, and they're all inclined to stay. Why? Well, they're not superstars, so other teams are not salivating to sign them at any price when they get to free agency. That means the Bills don't have write outrageous checks to keep them. Plus, they like being on the team, they like winning, they like the environment, so they're inclined to stay, because no one else is offering them Fort Knox. The whole approach is designed to collect the best talent possible over the long-term, and that's done by getting your talent in the draft. Constantly looking for it in free agency means you're chasing tail, always replacing players and occasionally finding yourself mired in cap hell because one or another of your big-ticket free agents didn't work out. A disappointing draft pick doesn't cost you nearly as much as a disappointing big-name free agent. I'm curious to see what McBeane do over the next few years. Will they maintain their discipline Or will they begin buying an occasional big-name talent? I have to say that I agree with many of you who think that when you're as close as the Bills are, there's a lot of reason to look for that guy or two who can push you over the top for a year or two. Belichick bought shut-down corners that way, and it worked pretty well for him.

Thanks.