Shaw66

An internet search suggests that the fastest recovery time is 6 months, 9 months is common, and it can take as long as 12. I'm not making any predictions, but we know that Tre has been getting the very best treatment, surgery through rehab. So, if he was a normal case and has had no complications, my own conclusion is that we'll see him in October.

I have a different view than a lot of people. Talking punts first, I think the guy has two jobs: Don't turn it over, and make the fair catch when you're supposed to. That's it. The rule changes have made it so tough to return punts, it's foolish to even talk about a guy who can take it to the house. It's not happening, or at least it isn't worth hoping it's going to happen. I don't even care if he has a better average than most guys. Especially when you have the offense the Bills have, all that matters is not turning it over, and not getting pinned deep if you can avoid it with the fair catch. So, I really don't have any interest in having McKenzie or Stevenson back there, because both are suspect in the ball security category. I liked Andre Roberts. He had some turnovers too, but to me looked solid back there making decisions and catching the ball. And he had the plus of having a nice average. If he weren't so important to the defense, I'd put Hyde back there. He always catches it, he makes good decisions returning, and he gets some yards. I'm a little troubled about it, because the Bills don't have anyone taking punts who gives me a good feeling. I'd rather have someone back there who's always going to catch and hold the ball, even if the guy literally took a fair catch every time. Ball security on kickoffs is just as important, of course, but I think it's easier. I don't mind McKenzie back there, even with the gaffe against the Dolphins or whoever it was. I doubt he's doing that again. Or Austin is fine with me. I also think the risk-reward ratio is better on kickoffs - that is, with a good return, you can get it out to the 40 or midfield, and that's worth having a guy who has the speed to do that, even if if he might lose it once or twice. Both positions, I want a veteran. Vets tend to hold on to the ball. I expect it'll be McKenzie at both spots, and I'll just hold my breath. A man after my own heart!

I seriously doubt it. He's going to take snaps from Johnson on first down.

Yes, I believe it was. Some guys give me confidence when I see them back there. McKenzie doesn't.

I've never lived among a lot of intense competitors like these guys are, and I can't I've ever experienced something like what you describe - a veteran goading a younger guy to stand up. I don't know if that's what was going on there, but that's an interesting take. Thanks.

1. He's smart. 2. He writes well. I'll give him that. But he's like so many politicians today - instead of using his own brain to make an independent judgment and then give us his opinion, he decides what side of an argument he wants to be on and that becomes his opinion. That's not opinion; that's dogma. I've objected to his stuff plenty of times, but among the worst examples of his forming an opinion based on a pre-judgment, rather than thinking: 1. He bashed TO for the entire season he was in Buffalo, and there was no evidence, none at all, to support his bashing. 2. As Rex was leaving, and Anthony Lynn was acting head coach, he repeatedly asked questions at press conferences for the purpose of catching someone saying something that contradicted what he or someone else previously had said, all solely so that he then could bash the organization about it. I'd like to like the guy.

Jerry's reaching a little bit for things to worry about, but fundamentally he's right. Josh isn't a Hall of Fame QB yet, McDermott has to prove he can lead a team to the championship, Dorsey is an unknown, the statistically-great defense needs to show it can control games. All valid points. But all that really adds up to is that even the favorite to win the Super Bowl has to have a lot of things go right to actually win it. It's always that way.

Definitely no big deal, but it was weird. Maine didn't like being put on the spot and didn't know how to handle it. From the outside, it was pretty obvious that Von was just trying to figure out what to call everyone, just like he was trying to learn a specialized handshake with someone else. I hate to judge the guy on one exchange, but Maine didn't seem to have the personality of a leader in that exchange. He should be working to welcome Miller, not walking away when the guy is talking to him. Imagine McKenzie when Miller asks him. "Well, my momma calls me Isaiah, but you can call me L'il Dirty."

I agree about the 110%. It was a monumental coaching failure. I'd say he didn't call time out because he didn't have a plan to go to do. That is, my sense is that it was a coaching failure, but not an in-game failure. It was a preparation failure, going all the way back to training camp. I think if McDermott has the right play or the right concept, he's smart enough to go to it. I think he wasn't prepared. I guarantee you, McDermott knows what went wrong. It would be interesting to hear him talk about it but, of course, he won't.

I think you're right about this. I agree that the FO wasn't really excited about the talent falling to them. As for 3rd rounders, I think it definitely depends on position. Third round running backs better play as rookies, somehow. But third-round linemen, by year two they should be playing a fair amount and in year three they need to show they belong. AJ, you listening?

Hard to know what would have happened, but for a really good team, that was a monumental failure. I suppose one way to look at it is that if you get a lot of chances, you're going to have some of those. I know the Patriots are really disappointed about their Super Bowl losses. For them, it's easier to take, because they piled up their share of Super Bowl wins. But the Bills losing to the Chiefs is on a par with the Seahawks losing in the Super Bowl. And the Falcons. It's time for the Bills to begin balancing the scales a bit, and McDermott needs to prepare them.

Thanks for this. First, I tried a couple of times to say that there are no hard and fast rules about this. I don't have some kind of third-round cutoff. All I'm really saying is that I think around the end of the third round your expectations of the player change. Up through the third round, if the guy doesn't become a regular contributor on offense or defense, he's a disappointment. By the fifth round, for sure, if the guy doesn't become a regular contributor, he's just a guy who didn't work out. So, compare Stevenson to Cook. Bills draft Stevenson, and I thought, "wow!, if he works out he'll be a great addition." But I never counted on him. I had hopes, but not expectations. Cook is different. Take a guy in the second round, I still know he might not make it, but if he doesn't, he's a blown pick. If your team is going to be good, guys taken in the second round have to become regular contributors to the team's success. You need some guys from the sixth and seventh round, too, but you know going in that not everyone from those later rounds will make. Second round, man, we need you to do the things that make you special. And although I didn't bother to define it, by starter I didn't mean just the top 11. I mean the guys we see on the field regularly. So, for example, to begin the season the starting receivers were Diggs, Sanders, Beas, and Davis, even though the actual "starting" lineup had only three of them listed. As I sort of said earlier, if you've got a regular third-down back, I think of him as a starter even though he, too isn't listed on the starting lineup. Cook doesn't have to become the number 1 back to be a starter, in my mind. He has to be a guy the Bills put on the field often enough that he is a primary weapon and not an afterthought. Interesting comments about Basham, and they are to the point. If you're correct, that Basham helped the Bills figure out how to afford Miller (by being a guy they know they will put on the field regularly) then he's "a regular contributor to the team's success," which is what was expected from a second-round pick. Personally, I'm really excited about Cook. I think he has a chip on his shoulder, and he brings more explosiveness than any back the Bills have. Dorsey has been spending months figuring out how he's going to get the ball to him.

Great comment! It's impossible to look back at the Chiefs game and conclude anything other than the defense lost the game. And, as you look back on other troubling losses, it's often the same conclusion. I have enormous confidence in McDermott, and I've said this before: This point, about the defense making plays in crunch time, is not lost on McDermott. We can be sure that he has made that problem a point of emphasis since January. I don't know exactly how to solve that problem - McDermott isn't going to want to change their overall style of play. What I think he's been doing is challenging Frazier and others to figure out the strategies that work for other teams - watch film of teams that have had good shut-down fourth quarter performances and figure out what they do that the Bills don't do. For example, I remember watching a Pats game several years ago, Pats were driving for the tying or go-ahead score. They got into the red zone, and for the first time all game, on a few plays, the defense doubled Gronk by putting two guys on the line of scrimmage and simply not letting him get into any pattern. The defense had that strategy in the game plan and didn't use it until the game was on the line - if they'd shown it earlier, by the fourth quarter McDaniel and Brady would have had an answer. I think the Bills understand that they have to develop that kind of tactical excellence so that they can get stops, if not on every play, at least enough to slow down drives. In the 13 seconds, for example, I had the feeling that Mahomes knew exactly what he was looking at. No surprises. Reid may have had a play in his back pocket, but Frazier didn't. I expect McDermott has been pushing Frazier to develop a higher level of preparedness for the fourth quarter.

That too is possible, but I think less likely. I don't think he's big enough to play the middle. He's not likely to be able to cover the ground Edmunds can, and he doesn't have any bulk to plug runs. Possible, because I gather the guy is really talented, but I doubt it.

Absolutely. I cooked up this theory about the 4-3 and Bernard because my impression of McDermott is that he doesn't stand pat. He's always moving on to something to make his team better. I think this team will look different every year. It's what I said about Basham. Last season it looked like they working on, and having success at, a role that fits Basham's strengths. You know they've trying to figure out how to take full advantage of McKenzie. Point is, McDermott's not putting pegs in holes; he's shaping the holes for the pegs he has. And he's reacting as the league changes from year to year. So, I come at it from point of view that the team's changing, and the skill sets of the acquired players tells something about how the team is changing. Miller will change things, and that will affect Oliver. Basham and Rousseau are working their ways into the league, and McDermott's adjusting for them. McDermott's defense is shaped in part by Edmunds. So, when I ask the question, what about Bernard?, I get 4-3. May be wholly off the wall, but McDermott is going to use him for something.

This news is some evidence that the NFL is getting back pre-COVID normal operations. Pre-COVID it happened all the time - rich contract today looks lousy five years from now. It's why teams can always seem to have enough room to move around. Bills feel constrained by Allen contract now, but by comparison to others three years from now, Bills will be spending relatively less on a QB and able to spread some money around.

Well, I think it's too early to tell if he was a terrible pick. He came on a bit toward the end of the season, and his positional assignments seemed to be changing. The Bills seemed to be in the process of figuring out a whole for him where he can be really effective. Frankly, that's what they doing with Rousseau, too. But, you're right, he didn't perform or contribute to the team in any way close to what the fans, and maybe the Bills, expected. He's a good example of what I was talking about. The Bills didn't draft him to be on the bubble of making the roster. And as a rookie he didn't show much more. I mentioned Philips, third round pick who wasn't bad but was a disappointment. If Basham doesn't make, he will be disappointment, and even more than Philips. There are expectations that come with draft round. Elam, Cook, and Bernard. Clear expectations for each. Elam should start. Cook should be a small-scale impact players by the middle of the season, and if he can do that and be a threat, then he has the opportunity to make more of it and become a full-time back. And Bernard is going to play some position, the Bills will teach him the position and they'll see if guy can make himself a starter in that role. W Later rounds, not so much. In the later rounds, if you're drafted by a good team, your team essentially says to you, "Look. You've got some things that say to us that you can contribute on our team. We'll teach you some things about how our team works, and we want you keep working and make it work. Whether you make it is mostly up to you. Can you grow as football player to be a player we need? The difference in the later rounds is that team doesn't have expectations so much as it has hopes. There are expectations for Bernard.

Absolutely. I'm not saying I have the only theory, but I'm sure they drafted him with the expectation that he will be starting eventually. One person who knows is Milano's agent, who may have recognized on draft night that his client probably is going to be on the move. Or, if I'm correct, the wrestling mad scientist is cooking some new stuff.

Based on simple observation. Guys drafted in the third round either start eventually or are off the team, and that's pretty much true around league. Although there are exceptions (there always are), you don't find third-round picks make a permanent place on anyone's team as special teams player, a role player, or a backup. Of course, it happens, but when a third-round pick survives only by being in one of those lesser roles, he's viewed as a pick that didn't live up to what his team wanted. It takes a lot of things to start in the NFL, and one of the things it takes is a minimum level of talent. All the teams are good at figuring out who has the talent (again, with exceptions - they're wrong about some players in the first rounds, and they're also wrong about guys in the later rounds). The guys taken in the first round, and pretty much in the second round, are the guys that more or less all GMs agree have the talent to start in the NFL, and maybe even emerge as stars. The third round is, generally speaking, where you're still likely to find enough talent to start. Read the draft scouting reports - usually the guys in the fourth round have some physical shortcomings that they're going to have to overcome if they want to be a starter. This guy doesn't have elite speed, that guy is undersized, another guy is lacking quickness. In the third round, the scouting reports say that this guy or that guy has physical skills that are adequate to start. Maybe you haven't noticed that, but it's pretty clear when you look. The Bills drafted Bernard to start.

Nice argument, but you're wrong. Until there are some fundamental changes in how the NFL operates, there are some things that remain the same. One of those is that the way the salary cap and free agency and the cap are currently operated, it's impossible for any team to keep it's good starters year after year after year. They're always coming and going. Levy left. The Bills probably can't keep Edmunds, Knox, Oliver, and Poyer. It just isn't possible. The result is that the GM always has to be looking for starter-caliber players. The lower you go in the draft, the less likely you are to find a starter-caliber player. The cut-off seems to be the third round. The measure of success for a third-round pick is "does he become a starter for us?" If the answer is yes, you drafted well. If the answer is no, you didn't. Harrison Philips, for example. Spencer Brown, for another. Why is that the case? Because you can't continually replenish your starters only in the first two rounds. There are 22 starters, and if they start for you, on average, for six years, that means you need three new starters every year, and you can't get three starters out of two rounds of the draft. That's the reality in which Beane is operating, and although offense and defense evolves, that has been the reality since modern free agency began, and it shows no signs of changing. If you want to believe they drafted Bernard to be a role player, you're free to do so. I seriously doubt it. I think Beane drafted him to start, and it's McDermott's job to figure out how to start him, and how to start him sooner rather than later. Just like it was McDermott's job to do it with Harrison Philips and Spencer Brown.

I've been saying something related to this for some time now. I think people who scream "NO WAY!" aren't thinking about what Beane and McDermott and what the reality of the NFL is. I'm not sure what Johnson's future is, although I've speculated in the past not that it's at corner but at safety. I think there's a good chance Poyer will be gone soon and the Bills will need a safety. Johnson could be a candidate. When I say the reality of the NFL, what I mean is that the league is always changing, and what worked last season and two seasons ago may not work in 2022 and almost certainly no longer will work in 2023 and 2024. So, everyone saying the Bills are a nickel team are describing the past and not necessarily the future. It changes from year to year. The other tea leaf that people seem to ignore is that Beane doesn't draft players in the third round to be part-time players, spot substitutes, special teamers, or backups. If Beane takes you in the third round, he and McDermott are expecting you to start, certainly by your second season and ideally in your first. In their minds, Bernard is going to be on the field on a regular basis, again ideally, by the end of this season. Yes, maybe he is a replacement for Milano, and maybe Beane is intending to trade Milano to make room for Bernard, but I doubt that. What I've speculated about is that we all know that McDermott loved his 4-3 in Carolina. We also know that he played it with linebackers who looked more like the traditional 20th century NFL linebackers, albeit better pass defenders. We also know that McDermott loves guys who can play multiple positions, or who at least play with skills that make him look like multiple-position player. So, for example, Edmunds is linebacker who runs like a safety. Put all of that together, and I conclude that they drafted Bernard to be on the field. He's too small to be an edge, and he's probably too slow to be a DB. That tells me they drafted him to play linebacker in a regular rotation and as I said, I doubt they drafted him to replace Milano. That makes me think that McDermott is looking at playing more straight 4-3 and less 4-2-5. I think he's thinking that if he has two outside linebackers in the Milano-mold - quick fast and smart, he will have a more versatile defense than playing with just two linebackers. Yes, Bernard can't cover the slot man as well as a good nickel can, but with three really fast linebackers the defense probably needs to commit a safety to the box less often, and that safety is free to cover the nickel. And Bernard can blitz better than a good slot corner. And there is one more aspect of this. The reports were that Bernard is one of those coach-on-the-field types. Not to overstate it, but he's one of those genius types, who studies and understands the game at the level the coaches do, rather than the players. He said something right after he was drafted about first learning his position, then learning all the other defensive positions, because he can't play football well without knowing what everyone is doing. McDermott apparently has a close relationship with the Baylor coach and had been McDermott's ear about Bernard. That, too, tells me that McDermott has plans for Bernard that go beyond what most of us are assuming about the guy. So, my guess is that your take on this comes from the right place - there's a role for Bernard that will tend to deemphasize the importance of Johnson as the nickel back. I agree with others that Johnson probably isn't a corner, but I think the Bills think that Johnson is the kind of guy they want on the field. My guess is that he's a safety, and that gives Beane more flexibility to deal with Poyer. But the Bills can't make that move until they get Bernard at least into camp and ideally through some games to be sure that he can allow Frazier and McDermott to play an ultra-small, ultra-quick three linebacker set instead of a 4-2. In the meantime, Beane still can draw the line on Poyer if McDermott is telling him that whatever happens with Bernard, McDermott can live with Johnson or Hamlin at safety. I've said before that I'm expecting that Poyer is not getting a big deal from the Bills, and he may not be getting a deal at all.

Yes about Boldin, Woods, and Moulds. All a little different, but that's the type. Not quite a #1 but a handful as a #2.

You stated it well, position by position. I would add that I think we actually will see that Davis is a solid #2, if not a break-out star. I say this mostly based on a few things we saw about his off-season work and attitude. I know those things often are fluff, but there's a reason it's only certain guys we see. I get the sense that this is a guy determined to be better, a guy who has seen he can make it work almost by sheer determination. I don't know any of that as a matter of fact, but I get that vibe. Writing this reminds me of one my first ever favorite receivers - Gary Collins. In 1964, I was a senior in high school, a big Browns fan as well as Bills fan, and Gary Collins was the split end (not the flanker, the split end). He was big but not the biggest, a good runner but by no means a burner, with really good hands and fierce determination, determination like Kittle. And he was the Bills punter, and would run fake punts. You'd look at the guy and you'd say "nothing about him says 'star.' 'Nothing.'" And yet, Gary Collins is going to beat you. Something tells me that's what Davis is becoming. He's figuring out how to be good speed, good size, good blocker, good fighter, good everything. Nothing's great, but everything is very good. And combined, it's great. Not necessarily pretty, because it's not Lance Alworth grace, or Megatron size, or Rice otherworldliness, but together, it's still something that makes you great. Maybe not great for a long career, but someone who for a few years forces you to deal with him.

Not saying any of this truly wrong. I'm really just commenting on this. Diggs scares teams big time. Don't kid yourself. Sure, he's not Hill, but no one else in the league is, either. And soon we may be saying the same about the guy the Bengals have. But Diggs gets doubled a lot, and Diggs hurts teams in the short and intermediate possession game. He's the focus of the defense every week. I think McKenzie is limited, and we've seen what he can do. More time on the field won't result in a lot more production. Crowder at his best will be better than Beas, but he's certainly not scaring anyone. Davis is the guy who could be the serious threat. And of course Cook is a rook, but he played in a sophisticated offense and likely has reasonably developed pass pro skills, to the extent a good college team needs it. Even so, unless he shows that he just isn't quick enough or something, the Bills are going to find ways to get him on the field and get him the ball. For example, if he can't do anything else, he probably will take snaps from McKenzie in jet sweeps and on certain pass routes. They didn't draft the guy to be on the bench, and running back is one of those positions where rooks can see time.

This is absolutely correct, but Josh being late to check down is very much a double edged sword. Yes, he comes to his checkdown man late sometimes, but that is just part of his tendency to extend plays to get the most out of each play. I think the yards lost because he's late to checkdown likely are a fair trade for the yards gained by letting him continue to extend plays. And, yes, his accuracy can improve - I agree, because I see a lot of plays where I wish the ball had been better placed, but by NFL standards, he's already quite accurate. Would I like him to be laser-fine like Brees or Rodgers? Sure. And maybe he'll improve, but I can live with his current level of accuracy. I really think the primary problem on the offense (besides the running game) has been attacking the flanks effectively. Not check downs to the flat, but designed plays to the flat, where off the snap Josh immediately unloads it to a back who can beat the LB to the edge and take yardage in space cleared out by a slanting receiver. That, and better quick screens to the back, plays where on the snap, the back sprints right and Spencer Brown sprints right creating a one-man screen at the point of attack. It's all about getting speed in favorable matchups, and the Bills have not been able to that in the flat in previous seasons.