Shaw66

Yeah, but I gotta say we put down the Dolphin fans so much, it's refreshing to see some who actually know how to be fans of their team. Good for them.

Thanks for the link. I enjoyed it. We're really tough on these guys. Yes, he was quiet and talked slowly. What do we know about him? We went to relatively small school, and definitely played on a small stage. This may have been the first time in his life that he was interviewed at any length for a national audience. It's extremely unlikely that ever happened to him at Villanova, because he wasn't on the basketball team. We also know he's thoughtful, hard-working, and committed to the team. How do we know that? Because if that's not true about you, the Bills aren't drafting you. So, a smart, hard-working, team guy doing his very first big-time interview is going to be careful. He's going to think about the question, think about about the right thing to say, and say it carefully. He maybe went to someone like Hyde and asked him to coach him a little, just to be sure he was ready. The result of all of that is you hear a guy who sounds like he just woke up and who's trying hard to say the right thing. He did a good job, even if he could have more juice. I've been listening to Von Miller get interviewed. I'd guess that when he was a rookie, even though he was a highly touted #3 pick, he was pretty quiet and careful.

Certainly the Chiefs. Still the Chargers, and the Bengals will recover. Miami might be a surprise. The Ravens. The Bucs - Brady and those receivers and that defense. This is still preseason. You can be sure there will be teams that scare in December, and you have to assume that the Bills will come back to earth. They won't play 16 more games like Thursday night. As others have said, however, right now the Bills scare every team. As his kicker missed that field goal, you know that Mike Vrabel's first thought was, "And we have to go to Buffalo next week?"

Happy birthday! Too bad Rams game wasn't today.

I'm pretty sure It IS taxed in the state where it's earned. It's treated as earned in 17 paychecks, 8 or 9 at home and 8 or 9 at home. As I understand it, Bills players pay NYS income on half their income. I know this because I was a practicing lawyer and I was a partner in a firm that did work in several states. Every year I had to pay state income tax in each of those states, depending on the proportion of income our firm had in each state and without regard to the fact that I lived in only one of those states. Thus, I'm pretty sure that each of the Bills will pay California income tax on 1/17th of their income for the privilege of having trounced the Rams the other night. I don't think their residence matters when they're playing. It matters when they're retired.

Well, I'm pretty sure that Beane is smarter than both you and me. I just watch what he does and listen to what he and McDermott say, and then try to deduce what the rules are that they operate by. Gunner says Beane has said things that make Oliver more or less a lock. As for Davis, I think he is an excellent #2, and if that is what he is, he may be expendable. But maybe he's going to become Mike Evans, and if that's who he is, then they have to keep him.

These guys have long-term portfolios - they're sitting on $20 to $100 million or more, so they invest for the long-term, which means you can own mostly stock and only maybe 30% or 40% fixed income. Getting 6-7% total return (interest, dividends, and appreciation) isn't all that difficult to do. Portfolio managers do it all the time. Granted, in some years you don't get that return, but on average (and the average is all that matters when you're that wealthy) you can get it. If all you have is $1 million, then that's too risky an approach, and then you can't count on getting as high a return. And, as for where these guys live after they retire, you're absolutely right. Even if they absolutely love Buffalo, they're living six months plus someplace, because avoiding the income tax on a million bucks every year is certainly a good idea.

I hear you. I really don't study the cap like a lot of you guys, so I wasn't talking particularly about next year. I was talking more in general terms, that he won't generally spend cap dollars to keep too many older guys who aren't core leaders on the team. He has to keep working on a youth movement all the time. All I meant was that by saving the money he could spend on a guy like Poyer, the saved money gives him the flexibility to move, from time to time, on a big free agent to bolster the team, a free agent like Miller. So, just because he has more money to spend, it doesn't necessarily mean he keeps more UFA, because some of those UFAs will have the unwanted effect of aging the roster. It's all a huge balancing act, or better, a juggling act. Beane's constantly weighing short-term team needs, long-term team needs, cap space available each year, age of the roster, and how much Rachel Bush needs for her next procedure. Or two.

I really don't think projected changes in the cap will make a lot of difference in a decision like this. It's as much about continuing roster development as it is about cap room. If you want to stay on top, you can't let your roster get old. As it is, I think someone had a thread saying the Bills have the fifth oldest roster in the league. You have to keep renewing your roster with younger guys, so you have to keep moving people out. You want to keep only a small core of senior leadership, and maybe room for a couple of ringers, guys like Saffold. So if the Bills have extra cap room, they'll save it to land big time free agents, either coming off their rookie deals or coming onto the market for other reasons, like Miller. And I'd guess there's one more reason he's gone, and that they won't want their two safeties getting old together, because that would mean that they would have to replace both safeties at the same time. They'd much rather keep one (Hyde, I'm sure) and give him a couple of seasons to play beside Poyer's replacement. That way, when Hyde goes, Poyer's replacement will be a veteran, and he can train Hyde's replacement.

He was standing up most of the time, but he pretty much never dropped. He always rushed, but if the play went away from him and he pursued, he pursued like a linebacker. I'm pretty sure he said when he came that he likes to play upright, but I also think he's made it clear that he's going to run the plays as they're called.

Thanks. You follow it more closely than I, so I'll take that as the likely outcome.

That play showed me something I didn't understand, which is that Miller linebacker-quality straight-ahead footspeed. There aren't many defensive linemen who run like that. I was talking a neighbor this morning who's a big Pats fan, but appreciates what the Bills are doing. He said exactly the same thing.

Maybe a better way to look at this is this way: They've had talks. Rosenhaus said Poyer is worth $x million a year for four years. Bills said well, you might be a little high, but we more or less agree that's how much he's worth. However, from our point of view, we aren't in a position today to commit that kind of money. But if we were, Jordan would get some of the money from that four-year deal this season. If he plays this year and leaves the Bills, he will have lost the opportunity for Jordan to earn that portion that he would have gotten this year. That's not fair to him, so what we're going to do is give him something like the salary boost he would have seen this season if we could agree now on a long-term deal. Looked at that way, it isn't a sweetener, or a dinner on their last night out. It's just being fair about how much he's worth on a season by season basis, and the Bills have agreed that he's being underpaid on his current contract.

You're right. And I didn't minimize that, I just didn't want to get into that whole subject. It varies dramatically from player to player. Allen and Knox seem not to do anything at all for their families, some other guys seem to need to do a lot. But even in those situations, all they're doing is buying Mom a house - not a mansion, just a nice house, and some income assistance, so the amount of extended family support really varies. And to your point, that's exactly why how much they start with may matter. Momma Diggs looks like she's doing just fine, thank you, because she's got two boys worth $100 million and they can give her more or less whatever she wants. When it's one with $50 or $30, it can be a lot different. But that's why I started out saying the agent helps a lot here, because the agent shows a guy like Poyer where he'll be financially at the end of his career and will help Poyer figure out how much money he needs to live on, including how much he needs for extended family support. However, none of that matters to the Bills. The Bills are just going to tell him next February how much they're willing to commit to him, and Poyer will have to decide if the difference between what the Bills are offering and what other teams are offering is such that he needs to take the other offer to meet his financial needs. The Bills will not overspend on Poyer because he wants to buy his mother a house in southern California overlooking the ocean.

This is fun and all, and I have to admit I like comments like this, but it's really demeaning to everyone involved. This isn't Beane somehow seducing Poyer in order to have one more great night in the sack. Rosenhaus is much smarter than that. He's not going to set his client up to be screwed, metaphorically speaking. No, this is Beane and Rosenhaus and Poyer having had serious discussions about how much the Bills value Poyer and how much they think they can prudently spend on him. Poyer, for now, places a higher value on himself, in dollar terms. They've had frank conversations about this. And Beane has said that the Bills simply are not prepared today to make the cap commitment that Poyer is looking for. So both sides understand that today, there won't be a long-term deal. But the Bills also wanted to say to Poyer that they agree that he's really good and important to the franchise and they want to be sure, at least for this season, he gets paid what he's worth. Poyer won't wake up some morning next February and think he got screwed. He'll either be engaged to get into a long-term relationship with the Bills, or he'll look back on his former lover with affection and move on to someone who values him more. The deal is the Bills doing the right thing by the guy as everyone sees how this plays out.

OF the subject, but I was impressed over and over Thursday night how physical the Bills were. They were physically dominant, and this play you're talking about, a play I don't recall, is one more example of it.

Yup. It's the price of success. But the Patriots wrote the playbook on this stuff. Once they had their QB and a successful culture, part of the drill to stay on top was to have the discipline to let people walk. You simply can't sign everyone you'd like to keep. You have to be continually grooming the next young guy to take over. The list of guys the Patriots let walk is amazing. So, I simply will not assume that either Oliver or Davis is certain to get a second deal. I think what the Bills will be doing is trying to project whether those guys are long-term locker room leaders. Frankly, I don't think Oliver has shown that. If he doesn't project as a long-term locker room leader, then the Bills wont' give him a big-time deal. Look at White. In his case, they made the projection and said, "yes, he's a keeper. We want him here long-term." Oliver on his rookie deal has not made himself a presence on the team the way White did. And Oliver was a much higher draft pick, which is just a comment on what the Bills expected of him. He hasn't reached those expectations, not like White did. We have to get used to the fact that this team is being run in ways that are different from what we've all been used to. In the drought, we always were desperate to keep talent, because there simply wasn't enough to begin with. That mentality is gone. Now, the mentality is to be selective about what talent to keep, and do it in ways that allows you to maximize the quality of young talent you bring in behind them. So, as much as I hate saying, the comp picks discussion actually is important now. Those comp picks help fill the pipeline with young talent. We're not used to this mentality, because we've never been in this position before. Bottom line, be prepared to see some people go who look like stars to us.

What they said is true. They will continue to work for a contract extension. Of course, they will. What it means is that they're all going to wait until next February to see whether they can agree on an extension. The door is still open. What we're talking about is the reality of the situation. They didn't extend yet for one reason - Poyer wants more than the Bills are currently willing to offer. Next February, everyone will reconsider their positions and they'll talk again. Maybe the Bills win a Super Bowl and Poyer tells his agent, "just get me the best deal in Buffalo, because I'm staying." Or, "get me at least $X in Buffalo and I'll stay." Or, get me the best deal anywhere, and I'm going." The Bills, on other hand, aren't likely to change their view very much. They already know how good he is, which is very good, but he's not going to turn into Ed Reed. They know what their long-term plan has to be at that position. They know how much cap room they have. In other words, Poyer is buying time to have decide whether he wants what Buffalo is offering. The money this year is short-term, to keep him happy, and Poyer and his agent decided that this package does it.

Thanks for the comment. Yeah, I know that living off $2 million a year is different from $1 million, and for some people it matters, but for most it doesn't. I've worked with a lot of people with wealth, and I'll tell you that I didn't have any clients who could find a way to spend more than $1 million after tax. I know you can, and I know that for a lot of athletes, they want to live the the jetset life, but for most they learn sooner or later that they aren't going to do that, that they don't even want to. By the time they're 30, they're settling down. Look at Poyer. He has a wife. He has a kid. He's a reformed alcoholic. Those are three things that are important to him that are likely to make him much less interested in flying around the country going to parties all the time. He probably is at the point that he sees there isn't much point in owning eight hot cars. Living on 4% of $30 million, his net worth will grow year after, paying for college for his children will be purely incidental. But, as I said, it's one thing for Allen down the road to give the Bills a $20 million discount; it's completely different for a guy earning at Poyer's level. My guess is that the Bills won't get close enough to keep him. The $20 million will be too big for him to swallow. From the Bills' point of view, it's completely different. From their point of view, there has to be constant turnover from older to younger, and the only guys you want to keep to their retirement are your pure leadership guys. Your really good contributors have to be replaced by younger guys in order to continue to be successful. We saw the Bills grooming Jaquan Johnson as Poyer's successor this summer. And I think Taron Johnson may actually be the successor, and someone like Benford will move over to take over Taron Johnson's nickel role. Bottom line, I think Poyer is the first really good guy we're going to watch the Bills let walk. He will be McBeane's Lawyer Milloy.

I know. ds j But Thursday night convinced me even more that we undervalue Edmunds. Hyde said something about with the new pass rush, the safeties can wait longer before committing, and if I remember correctly he also made some oblique comment about not having to worry much about the stuff in front of them. I heard that as a reference to Edmunds just occupying that space. Then I watched Baldy's video review of some of the plays, and he was talking about how Stafford was using his eyes to try to stick Edmunds on the underneath receiver to give himself room to get over Edmunds to throw to Kupp behind him. Stafford actually was throwing no-look passes, trying to keep Edmunds shallow. One was incomplete, the second was Poyer's interception. The point is that you could see that the Rams were forced into low probability throws, simply because they had to account for Edmunds. That's the kind of stuff that is obvious to coaches and GMs but not to us. I don't study the all-22s in such detail to figure out that's what's going on, but as I listen to others I'm becoming more and more convinced that Edmunds is much bigger factor in this defense than I can see just watching the games.

You're missing the players' egos. Poyer can't show up in the locker room and celebrate with his teammates that he got an extra $750. These guys think in millions of dollars, and anything less is chump change. To keep him happy in the short-term, Bills had to do something meaningful. I mean, do you think Lamar Jackson is happy today? Don't you think he would have been happier if the Ravens had thrown $5 million at him to stay focused this season? And, although I think we all assume things about a guy's private life, things that are unfair and stereotypes, $1.5 million probably sounds pretty good to Mrs. Poyer and keeps her, for the time being, in warm and loving mood. This is $1.5 million to keep a smile on Poyer's face this season.

Exactly. In the simplest of terms, he will look at what he can get in the market and what the Bills will give him. There will be a delta. His agent will calculate for him how much money he will have when he retires. By the end of this season, his total career earnings will be around $34 million. Lose half in taxes, that's $17 million. With the investment earnings, he has been able to spend maybe $1 million a year for the last eight years and still have $15 million banked, maybe better than that. Say he can get a $15 million all-deal from the Bills next season, and $25 million someplace else. After tax, that's eight or ten versus 12 or 15. Maybe a net $10 million difference. Maybe the two offers are twice that, so it's a net $20 million difference. Point is, that he's looking at retiring with $30 million or perhaps as much as $50 million. Pretty big difference. I mean, he can live very, very nicely on $30 million, because even spending $1 million a year, which is pretty hard to do, his net worth is going to grow a lot over his retirement. But it's one thing for Josh, at his level, to give up $20 million, it's a different thing at Poyer's level. It'll be his choice, but I think he's gone.

As you can see, I disagree. The reason Beane reserves cap space going into the season is to be able to spend to meet short-term needs. That's what the money is for. Turns out he had a different kind of short-term need - he needed to keep a key player happy, but he wasn't willing to extend the guy with kind of money he was looking for. So, he solved his short-term problem with money he had reserved to solve short-term problems. I don't know what anyone else thought, but I was watching Poyer's postgame press conference for any indication at all that he's unhappy. I was pleased that there was no indication at all. Why not? Because he already knew that the Bills were going to take care of him this year, and he could play the season without a chip on his shoulder. We all know he has too much talent and too little cap room to keep all the talent. This move is a good indication

It is simply amazing how this franchise seems to do everything right. I don't think they're keeping Poyer. But Beane knows how valuable he is, and he knows that having Poyer unhappy this season is not good for the team. So, find a way to make him happy, a short-term deal that makes long-term cap sense. And it gives Rosenhaus a win for his client - puts money in his pocket in the short-term and preserves the opportunity for a big-payday for his client next season. Or, frankly, for his client to decide that he's willing to take less to stay in Buffalo. It's just a perfect solution. And, it's one more thing that points to a possible deal, sometime, to keep Edmunds. Knox is signed, Poyer is good for the short-term. There may be room to pay Edmunds nicely and keep him in the middle.

Yes. This guy stopped me and made me appreciate that throw. Ramsey in perfect coverage and it simply didn't matter. Perfection.