transplantbillsfan
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Posts posted by transplantbillsfan
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This guy is clearly delusional.
The CoT certainly welcomes such a loyal subject.
So sad (and ironic)... it's clear TWD just found a new cult member in Crusher...
The CoT don't know they are in a cult. It's like the Moonies.
You guys are really creepy
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You don't consider yourself a Tyrod extremist?
No.
I can already see you and Thurm belly-laughing, but you guys labelled me that way because everyone needs to be somehow set in camps in your worlds.
If I were a Tyrod extremist, wouldn't I be calling him our Franchise QB? Wouldn't I be out buying a Taylor jersey?
I already said this about 1000 times, I was disappointed overall by Taylor in 2016 and the 4 game stretch from Cincinnati to Pittsburgh was a true low point for him.
However, I really think this becomes a larger question of which is more important: how high is your ceiling or how high is your floor?
What I think we're quite clear on is Taylor's floor, and although some will argue otherwise, his floor is significantly higher than many NFL QBs (yes, that does largely go back to protecting the football), but what I don't think we know for sure is what his ceiling is or (if you think games like Seattle and the 2nd Miami game are his ceiling) whether he can play more consistently to his ceiling than his floor.
I don't think I'm an extremist. I just like talking football and QB is the most interesting position to me. Sorry, I don't like talking about Kickers and Kick Returners or Offensive Linemen. That's why I stay out of those threads and type out posts about our QB.
Long post bud lol
I figure I just get all that out in a single post and I don't have to irritate old-timers with another thread for a long, long time.
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It's not that he took less overall and guaranteed money, he also put himself back in a contract where the Bills can walk away from after a year or two....not strong job security.
Tyrod said him and his agent made the decision that the restructured contract was the best bet for him 2 days before they agreed to it. If he is being 100% honest, why couldn't that decision have been made almost immediately? He admitted they talked to other teams to get feelers. Why? Why did he explore when Buffalo is where he wanted to be the whole time?
Why?
I don't know. I don't have answers for anything that happened. Neither does anyone else.
I said when the season ended it was going to be one big game of chicken until someone flinches, from the moment Taylor said he would have been willing to restructure on clean-out day was. Once he said that, he lost a lot of leverage.
And yeah, he talked to other teams, but we don't know anything more than that. Maybe you're right (that is, if you're one of the people here claiming you know why Taylor took less money) and Taylor found out few teams would be interested and they wouldn't offer much.
Or maybe the teams interested were offering him significant money, but the teams themselves weren't teams he wanted to be with for whatever reason.
Or maybe he was "going through the motions" and telling his agent to go talking to teams but make sure it gets back to Whaley that he's doing as part of that larger game of chicken.
I don't know, do you? Or are you just guessing?
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Sounds like you want to silence those who disagree with your point of view. That seldom works in the real world. Why don't you try using logic and thought to convince us? Got it in you?
Oh, trolling now I see.
What's the point of using logic and thought (which I did) if you aren't even going to read it?
Take your own advice.
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And who is responsible for throwing the football? CoT says Tyrod didn't throw slants because his offensive coordinators didn't call them.
I can see this CoT thing is gonna get real old real quick.
Let me ask this question since I'm new here, over at BBMB there were a bunch of posters who would just see a title or a topic and chime in with some randomly vague statement without ever even reading the post...
Is that you?
Wow, what a convoluted excuse. Tyrod took less money because you want to believe that. Welcome to the CoT.
... I guess I have my answer.
Please read it and tell me what's convoluted about a guy who likes where he lives, likes his working situation, and understands that he'll still be making plenty of money in that working situation but will also be helping to improve it... ?
Does this message board have an Ignore feature?
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Some here said we would release Tyrod and he would double his salary elsewhere. With the paycut/restructure he could have declined and went elsewhere if interested no ? I'm not a big cap or free agent guy. With the restructure his agent could find out what the market was and declined/move on I think??
And yes those that solely blame one side are beyong annoying. Both sides must improve.
Oh... so you know what happened and what the motives were for all parties?
Look, I'm no mind reader, but I can speak from personal experience that sometimes where you are and who you're surrounded by and working conditions matter more than the money. And I'm not talking just a few thousand dollars here or there, I'm talking about doubling your paychecks. I choose less and I'm happier for it.
I'm not going to make the argument that it's obvious that Taylor took a paycut because he's a team guy, but at the same time, that's what he says:
http://buffalonews.com/2017/03/09/said-buffalo-bills-transcripts-sean-mcdermott-tyrod-taylor/
Q: What convinced you restructuring was the right thing?
A: Just going back and meeting with Coach McDermott, the relationship I had with Coach Rico, (Offensive Coordinator) Rick Dennison, working with them before – actually getting a chance to work with (Quarterbacks) Coach (David) Culley at the Pro Bowl, that was a quick week, but just being around those guys. Actually been up here for the two months I was here for my rehab and being in the facility every day for close to six hours and getting a chance to know the coaches and their vision for this team. Just thought moving forward, if we could work out something for both sides, it would be beneficial. This is the place to be. Like I’ve said from day one, my commitment is to this team, to this community, to do whatever it takes to get a winning tradition back and I’m still committed to doing that each and every day.
Q: Did you explore other options and was it a case where you didn’t see anything financially better?
A: There were a few teams out there but I mean I’m still under contract. It wasn’t like I was released or anything, so I mean I couldn’t do too much and I wasn’t looking to do that. My focus this past offseason was to get healthy first and foremost with having the surgery early in January. My sole focus was to get healthy and let my agent find a way to make things work here and we were able to get something done yesterday. I’m excited to be back.
Q: You expressed some concerns and worries about your future in Buffalo after being benched in Week 17. How did you reconcile what happened with that and where you are now?
A: At the time, did I know that I would be back? No. I didn’t know what the next step for me was but I’ve learned from that situation and I’ve put it behind me. It’s a new coaching staff in here. Like I said, there’s some coaches that I’ve worked with before. Got a chance to talk to Coach McDermott since his first day here and like I said, the vision that he has for this team and our conversations have been very good since day one. Like I said, I put what happened with the last week of last year’s season behind me. Was I happy about it? At the time, no. Will it still fuel me during workouts and moving forward? Yes, but ultimately I’m happy that I’m back here competing with the guys in this locker room.
Q: Sitting out of practice that week and seeing how that played out, did you ever envision being where you are today?
A: I didn’t sit out of practice. That was for injury reasons. But like I said, I didn’t know at the time. I don’t think anyone knew at the time. There was uncertainty as far as with what the head coaching situation would be this year coming up, there was a lot of uncertainty. I think a lot of questions were unanswered at the time and we had to see what the next step was going to be as far as coaching-wise. Like I said, once I met the coaches and seen what they were putting in, definitely a place that I wanted to be and like I said, I’m happy that I’m here.
Q: After signing that contract last August, did you play this year with the thought in your mind that you might not see this thing through? How did that factor into your thinking throughout the year?
A: I didn’t really focus on that. Once I signed the deal, my focus was on to do whatever it takes to help win games. Our season didn’t go as well as we would have liked it to last year. On the personal side as well, too, I could have been better. They chose to restructure – we chose to restructure – and I think moving forward as far as the team, to help bring in more pieces, it was the best thing for both sides to do.
It's constantly about how excited he is to be back in Buffalo and how much he just wanted to make things work. At no point does he say he wasn't going to get much on the open market. If you want to infer that's what he means, that's fine, but your just guessing.
I know in the world of modern sports where everyone just goes to the highest bidder it's virtually impossible to comprehend that some people would actually take less to help a team, but when you're talking about the amount of money Taylor is guaranteed, you're talking about a guy who is already set for life. If he's grounded (maybe he is, maybe he isn't), he understands that (maybe he does, maybe he doesn't).
I don't care why he restructured.
If I take him at face value, it's because he really likes Buffalo (City, team, coaches, etc.) and views it as the best fit for him, both professionally and personally.
If I start making guess based off generalities about human tendencies, it's because there was some tampering going on behind the scenes with NFL GMs who were giving him and his agent a significantly lower-than-expected market value and so he tucked tail and ran back to Buffalo.
I know that you think the 2nd is the obvious truth, but forgive me if I remain skeptical and continue to call people out who choose to call that unquestionable reality.
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CoT.
Tyrod makes the running game. It's not the power blockers and Shady.
Bills don't pass the ball because they don't want to.
Bills put up points. All Tyrod. Not the offensive gameplan, offensive line, running backs or Shady or Sammy
Tyrod took a paycut because he wants more weapons, not because no one else wanted him.
Tyrod can't hit a slant pass because two different offensive coordinators decided not to use it in the gameplan.
Tyrod needs all-pro WR 1, WR 2, RB, TE, TE2, offensive line at every position. If he doesn't get that his results are not valid.
I see that this place really is pretty much BBMB 2.0.
Same lunatic extremists who can't read or find the middle ground.
Too bad.
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And again for the millionth time it did not matter who lined up as WR as they were open a lot, game in and game out per the All 22. Street FA, practice squad guys, WR #3, #4, #5, #6, TEs, etc it didn't effing matter as they were open. The WR, TE did their jobs and got open, the QB failed miserably and didn't get them the ball.
Enough of this he didn't have his top WRs as an excuse. It's lame and it's false!
It's false?
Wait, so you're saying he did have his top WRs despite the fact that Woods and Watkins missed a combined 11 games this NFL season?
Are you saying that Goodwin, Hunter, Powell, and Tate are his top WRs? I know you can't be saying that, because the fact that he didn't have his top WRs is 100% true.
So, what you must be saying is that all those other guys were constantly open in the way true #1 and #2 WRs get open... am I right?
If that's what you're saying, I think you should spend some time going and watching #1 and #2 WRs across the NFL and examine not only how they get open but the types of contested catches and plays those guys make on the NFL field. Heck, you can just examine Watkins and Woods themselves.
There's a reason Taylor was significantly better as a passer in every statistical category when he had both Woods and Watkins on the field.
Sure, you can point to individual plays where those other scrubs got open. But you aren't providing the context of your argument when you do that... are they getting as open as consistently as #1 and #2 WRs across the NFL? How often do those other QBs across the NFL simply not throw a pass to those guys?
That's what you really need to look at.
Your argument is one I've seen made by Thurm when we were over at BBMB. And it's an argument in a vacuum, with absolutely no context whatsoever.
Provide the context if you want. Otherwise you're just making a claim that has little meaning.
Church of Tyrod. A true CoT'er would place none of the blame on Tyrod and solely the defense.
You're not ready for Sainthood yet. Lol ! Our answers will be here soon enough.
CoT'er.
Cute. At least it's creative, if childish.
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He will improve just billieve. All the other gm's around the league surely didn't.
What are you talking about?
When was Taylor available for all the other GMs around the league to go after?
Did you wince after the Pittsburgh and Oakland games or did you just blame the defense ?
You seem like a CoT'er.
I winced.
Taylor sucked in those games.
In fact, after the Steelers game, I wanted him benched and I wanted Jones to start the rest of the season.
I did all that, while also blaming the defense...
I can't stand it when people think it's gotta be only one or the other.
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And by the way, Tyrod's "over the middle" problems have always been much more specific than that. His problems have been in the deep and intermediate middle of the field. He's always thrown well to the short middle and that muddies up the stats since for every QB around 70 - 80% of his passes are short (less than 10 yards according to ESPN, the source you always use for your stats). So yeah, when you throw in his good and plentiful short passes to the middle, it does indeed tend to overcome his infrequent and not as good use of the deep and intermediate middle.
Oh, and you're again using the words "over the middle" in a way that doesn't describe Tyrod's problem area. HIs problems aren't only between the hashes. Between the hashes is only about 12% of the field. Tyrod's problem area, again, is the deep and intermediate middle third of the field. He throws well outside the numbers but also for about three to four yards inside the numbers as well.
The deep and intermediate middle third is the problem area and you can't find stats for that area because there's no visible line there for people to quickly use to define it. So you have to look at every pass.
But that's not a problem. Everyone already knows this about Tyrod, the pundits, the coaches, everybody.
Do you not realize how ridiculous this sounds?
"It's not over the middle that's the problem, it's the deep and intermediate third. He can throw the ball just fine three yards inside the numbers, but once he's throwing it 4+ yards he's not good!"
Thurm, you talk about his numbers being skewed because he throws it short well, except Taylor had one of the lower YAC in the NFL and his YPA on those ESPN splits over the middle among those 12 other QBs is 8.7 YPA and behind only Cousins and Ryan.
So, it's pretty illogical for you to argue those numbers are skewed more than any other NFL QB.
You want to continue to argue that Taylor throws the ball inside the numbers up to 4 yards well but once it hits 5 yards and beyond he struggles, you go right ahead.
You keep on making these statements without anything to back it up. I'd love to see you back it up somehow.
Taylor was 16/25 for 261 yards. 2 TDs and 0 INTs with a Passer Rating of 125.6, according to PFF.
Sooo.... what... the majority of those completions were to the 3-4 yards just inside the numbers and the majority of those incompletions were 5+ yards inside the numbers?
Seriously?
And you already know that the deep middle portion of the field is an area the vast majority of NFL QBs very rarely throw to and constantly berating us with the "deep middle third" argument is inconsequential.
I've been here years.
And yes, I've still got sense and am still willing to point out the logical flaws in your arguments.
Yet, you're blinded by the logical flaws in your own...
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Does this board have an ignore feature I'm not seeing? It's not too hard to tell who the trolls are around here, and the one in this thread has finally tested my patience enough.
Thanks for compiling all the research transplant. It's good to know you didn't lose everything in the BBMB purge. One bit of research I keep thinking of doing, but never find time to do, is an analysis on how QBs perform without their top receiver(s). There seemingly aren't any articles out there that have tried to find out what the effect is, and I'm curious to know how Tyrod's regression after losing Watkins might compare to other QBs.
Some of exactly what you're talking about is right in the middle of the post, Hap.
Only the Jets and Chargers had more games missed by their #1 and #2 WRs... both teams obviously lost more games.
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"A bit" of a Taylor homer?
Puh-leeze!! You were a wild-eyed Taylor homer on six-packs of Red Bull. As was pointed out over there, nineteen of the last twenty-five threads you started were about Taylor, if I remember those numbers correctly.
In any case, the reason that he was kept around is that he re-negotiated his contract down to a bridge QB-type deal. Even back when the first story by Schefter, came out saying that the Bills were planning to "move on," he was pointing out that the money was the problem. He said, "Picking up the option would guarantee Taylor $30.75 million over the life of the contract, tying him to Buffalo for the next five seasons, and the Bills don't have any intention of paying it." Not that they had no intention of keeping him, but that they had no intention of paying that outsize contract. He re-negotiated, so he's here.
He's excellent at taking care of the ball, a very important skill. And he's a terrific runner. But he's got major drawbacks as well, and the end result is like a bridge QB who is now on a bridge deal.
I certainly hope he makes the huge steps up he will have to make to become a franchise QB. It would be by far the best thing for the Bills.
Hi Thurm... you upset? Still have your baggage, I see...
So much for new beginnings for you
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I want Taylor to play lights out where he turns this bridge contract into a long term. I'm just skeptical but it would be the best case scenario for the Bills. Imagine if we didn't have to worry about about the QB position for the next 6 years? It would be nice...
I'm skeptical, too.
And I was after the season ended.
I just think it's interesting what Buffalo has done with this new contract, which to me is more a "prove-it" deal than a Bridge deal... maybe they're one in the same, who knows.
The contract and freeing up of Cap space just makes it look like Buffalo is in "win-now" mode. Yet, we sure aren't doing much in FA... namely with the WR corps. I sure get the impression from McDermott that we're going to try to win and win immediately, but unless Jordan Mills lost a ton of weight and learned how to play WR, I'm wondering what the heck is going on because if the team (Whaley) really aren't in win-now mode, I wish they would have just dropped Taylor altogether and started Jones.
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It earned him a restructured contract at reduced pay.... so yes you're technically correct. It's a great contract on from the Bills side. Not great from Taylor's side but he can help give himself a pay raise with better play.
As it stands right now, it's a 1 or 2 year bridge deal.
From a purely money perspective, yeah, not great from Taylor's side.
It's a spectacular contract on the Bills side for 2017 for sure.
But it's going to be interesting to see what happens in 2017 regarding how Taylor plays. Because the Cap hit for 2018 for Taylor is already more than it was with the other contract and then another long term decision would need to be made on whether to keep Taylor after that.
And as we've already seen this offseason, the question of whether we'll keep him or cut him is truly up in the air and based only on how he plays in the next season or 2.
An interesting perspective on the restructured contract.
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So, this place isn't exactly "home," yet. Still weird being displaced.
I figured I'd introduce myself in the manner in which everybody over at BBMB knew me... as a bit of a Taylor homer. But really, at this point, that's stretching the truth.
I'll just start ONE Taylor thread. I know how much the people on this board don't like repeated threads, so here's one, long explosion of Taylor fun.
I'm prepared to be pounced on.
I intended to post some images throughout... stills of certain plays, but I have no idea how to do that here.
So...
I like Tyrod Taylor. I still do. But I'll say this, I fell off the wagon of thinking he's the long term answer and more than anything, I think he's a bridge QB for a few years with the opportunity to change my mind, which is exactly why I absolutely LOVE the restructured contract.
His 4 game stretch beginning with Cincy and ending with Pittsburgh was incredibly discouraging. His game against Miami helped rebuild at least a little hope, though.
Regardless, I will say this, there are some areas of Taylor's game where I actually saw noticeable improvement over 2015. And some of those are what give me hope.
For example, I don't know how it's been over here, but over at BBMB, some folks were hypercritical about Taylor throwing over the middle; whether there's an argument of frequency or effectiveness, he just doesn't cut it.
First of all, if you're one of those concerned about the intermediate middle in particular
*According to PFF*
2015- 10/18 for 187 yards. 1 TD and 1 INT. Passer Rating of 87. 4.7% of total passes to intermediate middle
2016- 16/25 for 261 yards. 2 TDs and 0 INTs. Passer Rating of 125.6. 5.7% of total passes to intermediate middle.
Did he improve? A 1% increase in terms of the amount he passed to the intermediate middle might be negligible, but it's clear he was monumentally more efficient as a passer to the intermediate middle. And the types of throws were more of the typical NFL intermediate middle throws with more crossing routes than 2015 (thank you Lynn... ?), although there were still plenty of those comeback routes or stop and turn routes Roman focused on. 3 specific plays I can recall (and I'd post the still images, but don't know how), include a nice little crossing pattern to Tate vs. Oakland where Taylor actually clears out the middle of the field by looking to the left before going back to the right to make the pass, a 2nd and 4 crossing pattern to Powell vs. Arizona, and a super impressive 22 yard pass directly over the middle to Goodwin to convert a 3rd and 21 vs. Cleveland.(Tangential to that last play, in his 2 years of playing, one thing Taylor is proving he's very good at is converting 3rd and long plays... he's been a top 5-10 QB at that 2 years in a row.)
So, back to that middle of the field in general thing. Luckily, ESPN does their own "splits" to certain sections of the field, and one of those is the "middle," which I would assume is between the hashmarks. I decided to take 11 of the most promising young QBs in the NFL who are likely the future at the QB position. I'm not doing every QB... it's just a pain. But I think anyone would agree there are plenty of promising young guys on this list, and these are the guys who comprise the future of the NFL. I included Luck, Newton, Rodgers, Mariota, Winston, Wilson, Tannehill, Cousins, Stafford, Ryan, Carr... and Taylor.
I used ESPN's splits and included:
-total % of throws to the "middle" when it comes to total throws
-% completions on those throws
-YPA on those throws
-TD passes over the middle
-INTs over the middle
-Passer Rating over the middle
Can you guess who's who?
QB 1: 9.3% of total attempts, 57.9 % completions, 7.5 YPA, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 67.1 Passer Rating
QB 2: 10.6% of total attempts, 59.3 % completions, 8.6 YPA, 3 TDs, 1 INTs, 98 Passer Rating
QB 3: 10.6% of total attempts, 66.7 % completions, 8.1 YPA, 3 TDs, 1 INTs, 103.6 Passer Rating
QB 4: 12% of total attempts, 67.2 % completions, 8.6 YPA, 5 TDs, 3 INTs, 100.3 Passer Rating
QB 5: 7.3% of total attempts, 78.1 % completions, 8.7 YPA, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 103 Passer Rating
QB 6: 10.3% of total attempts, 70 % completions, 6.3 YPA, 0 TDs, 1 INTs, 76.3 Passer Rating
QB 7: 8.4% of total attempts, 65.2 % completions, 7.5 YPA, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 83.9 Passer Rating
QB 8: 11.7% of total attempts, 74.6 % completions, 10.4 YPA, 4 TDs, 4 INTs, 102.8 Passer Rating
QB 9: 10.8% of total attempts, 70.3 % completions, 7.9 YPA, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 93.8 Passer Rating
QB10: 15.8% of total attempts, 61.6 % completions, 7.4 YPA, 6 TDs, 0 INTs, 107.5 Passer Rating
QB11: 9.7% of total attempts, 72.7 % completions, 8.2 YPA, 2 TDs, 1 INTs, 101.5 Passer Rating
QB12: 12.5% of total attempts, 71.6 % completions, 10.3 YPA, 7 TDs, 1 INTs, 133.3 Passer Rating
Which one is Taylor?
Who can find Rodgers?
Wilson?
There's one guy who throws significantly more over the middle than any of those guys, but anyone notice that passes to the middle for NFL QBs are relatively insignificant (in terms of % of passes) to all the other throws on the NFL field?
If you want to cheat and not guess, scroll down to the bottom.
There are some who argue that YAC is a problem with Taylor as a QB in general and it's a big reason he can't operate effectively out of the pocket as a passer, particularly throwing over the middle.. The general criticism is that it's on Taylor that the Bills are so poor in YAC because Taylor doesn't put the ball in places where WRs can gain any extra yardage.
I figured, why not put it to the test?
I started with the plan to do the whole season, but after doing the first 3 games and realizing time was an issue (wish I had more of it), I decided to jump to what I thought was his worst 4 game stretch. What I did was just rewatch the completions for ball placement to see how many of his completions were poorly placed and left yardage on the field. This is more about ball placement than accuracy... and yes, I think the 2 should be examined separately because accuracy would include all those incompletions. But there seems to be this general belief by some that Taylor's WRs were somehow always bailing him out and that Taylor is responsible for leaving yards on the field.
Well, in those 7 games (BALT, NYJ, ARI, CIN, JAX, OAK, PITT), Taylor completed 111 passes.
Only 7 of those passes were so poorly placed that they left potential yardage on the field.
1- A high pass to Clay on 3rd down in the Ravens game
2- A 3rd down pass to Woods in the Ravens game
3- A 2nd down pass to Goodwin in the Cardinals game
4- A 1st down pass that was low to a wide open Woods on the sideline in the Cardinals game
5- A 3rd down and 1 to Harvin in the Bengals game that was a little behind him... he was gonna get clobbered, anyway.
6- A 1st down pass to Clay that was a little behind him in the middle and really didn't have much chance for YAC... in fact, the chance for that YAC may have been to the middle, where the ball was thrown.
7- A 3rd down pass to Goodwin around the sideline that was a 1st down conversion, anywayThat's really it. You can be unhappy about ball placement on other passes, but if you rewatch, you'll see that really only 6.3% of all of Taylor's completed passes in 7 games (which included a number of really bad games from him) actually left yardage on the field. I'd love to show you images of some of these plays, but don't know how and can't... sorry.
Actual problems were the offense, which relied mainly on sideline throws and WRs who ran comeback or hook routes and weren't set up in positions due to the offense itself to get much YAC.
Taylor didn't control the routes that were run, and the routes weren't designed for YAC. If Taylor's still around in 2017, ball placement really shouldn't be an issue assuming Dennison's offense is designed to produce it, although if you look at the "middle of the field" throwing, it doesn't seem like the offense Taylor has operated in has been throwing insanely fewer times to the middle.
So, then we get to how well Taylor operates in tight spaces and anticipates throws. I'm grouping these 2 together because I think there's a single stat that demonstrates whether he does or does not do this very well: Red Zone passing, which you'll find easily in the situational stats on NFL.com.
Why? Because as you get inside the opponents 20, you have 30 yards or less vertically to work with and you'll have a more crowded area to work with. You'll be forced to throw the ball more into tight windows and you'll be forced to anticipate your passes more as you'll have less time to get it to WRs who will naturally be given less of a cushion to work with by DBs and LBs.
According to NFL.com
2015- 17/31, 90 yards, 6 TDs, 1 INT. Passer Rating of 86.4
2016- 30/50, 240 yards, 11 TDs, 0 INTs. Passer Rating of 111.7
Adding this on, according to http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=098&type=Passing, Taylor actually has the 6th highest Passer Rating and 10th highest completion % inside the 20.
Did he improve? I think this is an obvious yes. And 2016 wasn't a small sample size, either, as he attempted 19 more passes inside the opponents 20 than 2015. And I went back and watched every TD pass and the vast majority involve a pass from Taylor where a guy is not open yet and/or not looking at the ball yet and/or going through a tight window.Something else that I think may have seriously contributed to Taylor's regression was the revolving door at WR. In terms of the number of games missed by only #1 and #2 WRs during the NFL season for each team going by depth charts:
0 games missed
*Playoff Teams*
Seattle
Oakland
Miami
*Non-Playoff Teams*
Carolina
Tennessee
1-4 games missed
*Playoff Teams*
Detroit (1)
NYG (2)
Houston (2)
New England (4) 5 if you take Edleman, Amendola, and Hogan as a group
Atlanta (4)
Green Bay (4)
Dallas (4)
Kansas City (4)
*Non-Playoff Teams*
Denver (1)
Washington (1)
Baltimore (2)
New Orleans (2)
Arizona (3) Floyd cut
Philadelphia
5-8 games missed
*Playoff Teams*
NONE
*Non-Playoff Teams*
Cincy (5)
Jax (5)
Minny (6)
Cleveland (6)
San Fran (7)
Indy (8)
9+ games missed
*Playoff Teams*
Pittsburgh (10) Heyward-Bey is listed as the #2 even though some might argue it was Coates, in which case it'd be 9
*Non-Playoff Teams*
Chicago (11)
Tampa Bay (11)
Buffalo (11)
NYJ (14
San Diego (15) Mainly due to Allen's injury. If you consider Inman the #2 as opposed to Benjamin, it's 13.Yet, despite a depleted WR corps, Taylor seemed to improve in his "clutchness" to some degree, at least. Yeah, to this day he's still only credited with 2 4th quarter comebacks (Ten, Jax), but actually watching the Seattle and 2nd Miami games, we saw a QB who in those moments belonged and actually seemed to elevate his team. Taylor (and the team) were robbed in different ways (refs, coaching, bad defense, bad breaks) of those 2 game winning drives. Regardless, Taylor's passer rating with less than 2 minutes remaining in the half still noticeably improved from 2015 (61.0) to 2016 (85.2). That's a significant improvement. And with 66 passes in 2016 and 53 in 2015, you can't call it a small sample size.
Even within the game, those plays that are most "clutch" are the 3rd down plays many were critical of with Taylor from 2015, when he was at the bottom of the league with a 37.2% conversion % on those 3rd down passes. In 2016, he improved to 14th in the NFL and improved by more than 3% to 41.5%.
If you factor in his scrambles on 3rd down, which are passing plays, but Taylor decides to tuck and run instead for whatever reason, Taylor was 7/14 and bumps up to 42.4% in terms of 3rd down conversions in the passing game.
And maybe you have a problem with that last statement I made. Why didn't I include all his 3rd down runs rather than just scrables? Well, because there's a difference betwen a design run and a scramble. A scramble indicates your OC is asking you to drop back for a pass. He's putting some amount of faith in your decision making there. The designed runs are usually option runs or QB draws Roman calls and they're pretty simple, but sometimes involve a read or two.
Roman & called 43 designed runs this year. 47 of Taylors other 90 runs, therefore, were scrambles in plays designed as passes.(If you're wondering where those other 5 rushes are that Taylor is credited for, those were 5 kneeldowns for -6 yards, which means Taylor's actual rushing stats on the year were 90 rushes for 586 yards for 6.5 YPC)
Taylor scored 4 of his 6 rushing TDs on those designed runs, but he actually "only" gained about 4.9 yards a carry on them.
Now, if we consider that Taylor, who has a skillset unique to the majority of QBs in the NFL (Newton, Wilson, Rodgers are all exceptions with a couple others like Alex Smith), many of these other QBs (Brady, Rivers, Peyton, Eli, etc.) aren't going to be scrambling and/or scrambling for nearly as many yards on these plays where he breaks pressure... and in fact, these QBs would often go down for a sack. Yes, they'll also find the open man down the field sometimes that Taylor doesn't, but that's really already accounted for in all of their numbers, anyway.
So, the way I think of the passing game and vs. the running aspect of Taylor's game in 2016, this is how I see them:3620 yards passing & 223 yards rushing
7YPA
20 passing TDs & 4 rushing TDs
Four 300 yard passing games (Jets, @ Seattle, Pitt, Miami)
Yeah yeah yeah, I'm pretending that all of those designed passes are plays where he passes instead and gets the same results and adding those stats to the Jets game he was benched for in Week 17.
On the 47 plays in 2016 that are designed passes where, whether by force or choice (and a ton of them were by force), Taylor scrambles, he gains 371 yards. That means on all of those designed passes where he's forced to survey the field for an open WR and make a choice on who to throw it to (or scramble), Taylor is gaining more yardage than his YPA (7.9 on scrambles vs. 6.9 YPA). Actually, he's gaining more yards on those passing plays as a scrambler than all but 4 other NFL QBs did in 2016 as passers: Prescott, Cousins, Brady, & Ryan.What that means is that everyone saying that Taylor running on those passing plays is a bad thing overall is just really not true. It might be on a few plays here and there, but overall, Taylor as a scrambler gains more yards on those plays he chooses to scramble than every other NFL QB did (except the 4 guys listed above) when they passed.
Those are the objective things.
Subjectively, I can say that watching all of his scrambles, he really was running for his life a whole lot and made some absolutely crazy plays that would have been sacks if not for his own athleticism. Mills really was a turnstile... I can't believe he's going to be back.Anyway, I still have hope Taylor can be our long term answer, even though I no longer have any confidence he will. At the very least, he sure is exciting to watch.
*For those who had the patience to read all of that... bravo!* :-)
KEY TO QB PASSING OVER THE MIDDLE
Rodgers: 9.3% of total attempts, 57.9 % completions, 7.5 YPA, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 67.1 Passer Rating
Newton: 10.6% of total attempts, 59.3 % completions, 8.6 YPA, 3 TDs, 1 INTs, 98 Passer Rating
Mariota: 10.6% of total attempts, 66.7 % completions, 8.1 YPA, 3 TDs, 1 INTs, 103.6 Passer Rating
Carr: 12% of total attempts, 67.2 % completions, 8.6 YPA, 5 TDs, 3 INTs, 100.3 Passer Rating
Taylor: 7.3% of total attempts, 78.1 % completions, 8.7 YPA, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 103 Passer Rating
Tannehill: 10.3% of total attempts, 70 % completions, 6.3 YPA, 0 TDs, 1 INTs, 76.3 Passer Rating
Wilson: 8.4% of total attempts, 65.2 % completions, 7.5 YPA, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 83.9 Passer Rating
Cousins: 11.7% of total attempts, 74.6 % completions, 10.4 YPA, 4 TDs, 4 INTs, 102.8 Passer Rating
Stafford: 10.8% of total attempts, 70.3 % completions, 7.9 YPA, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 93.8 Passer Rating
Luck: 15.8% of total attempts, 61.6 % completions, 7.4 YPA, 6 TDs, 0 INTs, 107.5 Passer Rating
Winston: 9.7% of total attempts, 72.7 % completions, 8.2 YPA, 2 TDs, 1 INTs, 101.5 Passer Rating
Ryan: 12.5% of total attempts, 71.6 % completions, 10.3 YPA, 7 TDs, 1 INTs, 133.3 Passer Rating -
All of this is funny that we still have to argue about it...
If folks want to call this a "bridge contract" using QBs like Bradford and Glennon as points of comparison, that's fine, but Taylor's much more of a deal based on the on-field performance we've already seen. Yeah, Bradford was very good this year, but it's not like that was expected... and please don't pretend you did. Bradford got more money despite being worse than Taylor on the field... living off "hype" and "draft status" largely really.
That's why this is just such a fantastic deal. Because if the team gets some weapons (hellooo Whaley...?) and stays healthy (unlike the Vikings), the Bills could be looking to make more noise than just being the "fringe playoff team" so many are expecting.
Don't get me started on Glennon. That might be Brock Osweiler contract territory...
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BBMB refugees are gonna hate where this conversation is going, but I guess I'll chime in.
But you can easily distinguish between designed runs and scrambles. They're 2 very different plays just based on what the offense does.
I had done this for 2015 and 2016 by looking at the NFL play-by-plays to see whether they classified it as a "run" or "scramble" and then I watched the plays myself to make a judgment call.
It boils down to this in 2016, Taylor is credited for 95 rushes for 580 yards for 6.1 YPC.
But 5 of those "rushes" were actually kneeldowns for a total of -6 yards. Those aren't sacks, they're credited as runs.
So the reality of Taylor's plays where he actually ran was 90 rushes for 586 yards for 6.5 YPC.
Regarding plays where Taylor scrambles (plays where he actually took the snap with a play design to get the ball out of his hand), Taylor scrambled 47 times for 371 yards for 7.9 YPC.
14 of those scrambles were on 3rd down and he converted 7 of them for 1st down.
2 were TDs.
By contrast, he "only" gained 209 yards on 43 rushes for 4.9 YPC.
What I'd like to see Dennison do is cut out the designed runs altogether, but encourage him to use his legs to scramble on passing plays as he sees fit.
I know some will disagree with me there and say that you don't want to encourage that because then the belief is he's less likely to stay in the pocket and pass. But Taylor scrambles more efficiently than most NFL QBs pass the football, so I say walk the fine line of trying to develop him as a passer while still supporting the use of his greatest asset.
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Tyrod sucks. That's why he restructured his deal...nobody else wanted to pay him either.
Very constructive and on-topic posting...
Guess you can never run away from this type of posting, apparently. Too bad.
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Thanks for the article. Interesting read. It kinda ties in with something I remember talking about after his 2015 campaign where I'm pretty sure Taylor was much more successful under center than in shotgun. Seems being under center really helps with footwork and timing routes.
I haven't gone back and watched the Dennison offense very much. Does Dennison seem to use shotgun less or more than Roman/Lynn?
The deep 7 step drop thing makes sense, too. I wonder if there's a way to emphasize taking a "3 step drop" or something even out of the shotgun whenever he's there, too.
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Go and check the bridge Quarterback market. I did a pretty thorough evaluation of the figures before the renegotiation. This is not cheap.
It is ONLY cheap if you see Tyrod as someone who still has a chance to be some team's long term answer at Quarterback. I don't and the Bills clearly don't hence they renegotiated and if Tyrod genuinely felt there was consensus in the league that disagreed he would have tested that market and said to the Bills "it is the option or nothing."
I am not being negative here or knocking the Bills. I think on the new contract having him here is a no brainer. But it is this contract that is value... not the old one.
I'm sorry but could you direct me to your breakdown?
Finding these things on an iPhone is a pain.
I'll be really curious to see the various QBs and contracts you qualify as "Bridge QB/Contract."
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And the fact that they have been playing in the worst division in NFL history since Luck came into the league. And the fact that Luck was out of college eligibility that year, unlike Darnold, and had no choice but to go there.
Exactly.
The Colts had the Perfect Storm.
I can't believe people point to that situation like it was really even a decision the Colts really had to mull over. Or as though it's a situation that is often available.
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I don't know, but the Colts have made the playoffs 3 of the 4 years that Luck has been healthy and gone as far as the championship game. Typically it takes a team like NE to beat them in the playoffs- so I would say they have been fairly successful. I would take that in a heart beat and if you eliminate Brady - they probably have at least 1 SB trip. Of course if you eliminated Brady - the Bills probably make the playoffs at least once in the last 17 years.
They also fell into the situation and did not try to suck for Luck, but an injury to Manning made it possible.
I am not a fan of tanking, but I also think that if you are not going to be good enough to win - a la the NYJs this year - you are better off looking at ways to eliminate your bad contracts and get your team situated for the future rather than just doing the same thing over and over.
You point to the Colts, but they're an incredibly unique example.
They could sell tanking easily to their fan base because they were in a win win scenario with a one year window of your amazing HOF QB being sidelined for a year and the "best NFL prospect since Elway" set up to come out in the draft.
The fan base wouldn't have lost any way you looked at it.
People who point to the Colts as an argument for tanking ignore the unique reality of that situation.
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There is a couple million more in guarantees in the Glennon deal but they are more frontloaded. It is actually cheaper for the Bears to get out of the Glennon deal after 1 year than it is for the Bills to get put of the Tyrod deal.
Those deals are both right at market value for bridge Quarterbacks. It is absolutely obvious to me when interpreting the numbers that the league value on Tyrod is exactly that. Bridge quarterback. Once he realised that it was better to be the bridge here than in Chicago or Cleveland or anywhere else.
We are not getting him cheap. We are getting him bang smack at market value.
No, unless you're definition of market value is different than what it actually is, we're getting him cheap.
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Who cares?
They're all idiots.
I don't know how it was over here, but it just got sickening the way some posters over at BBMB were vomiting out these "reports" from "experts" and "insiders" like LaCanfora as though they were actually arguments against anyone who said Taylor would be back.
In the end,
Media and "insiders" lose.
Logic wins.
Things Taylor did on the field in 2016 that kept him around
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Jesus... idiotic and just plain sad...
Ignore feature? ANYONE?!?!