transplantbillsfan

There ya go. So they're opinions and you used "forgone conclusion" for emphasis, not because you thought it was a fact. I read all your points. I'm fine with you believing it. It's reasonable. But setting the precedent of allowing opinions to pass as facts is a bad one, even in the Age of Alternative Facts. That was a crusade. I sincerely apologize to everyone. Moving on...

Feelings are not facts... It's funny because I've provided direct quotes. You're providing "feelings." Yet, you think those "feelings" are proof it's a forgone conclusion that Taylor was gone if he didn't take a pay cut. Maybe you define forgone conclusion differently than me, because that's a statement reserved for inevitable fact. Because if that's the definition we're going by, you're wrong.

Well considering that article does more of the same in terms of speculation, I'm going to assume that you posting an obvious speculation is admitting that you were incorrect in stating speculation as fact. Good form! Always glad when people are capable of admitting to mistakes. Happens to all of us.

You've got to be joking at this point. With the joke that sports media and journalism has become, if you seriously think that the same journalists and "experts" who were widely reporting that the Bills were inevitably moving on from Taylor when the season ended are credible enough to believe whole-heartedly when they report something like this, then you're being naïve. And the ever-worshipped Adam Shefter is included as one of the guys reporting that Taylor would no longer be the Bills starting QB right after the season ended: http://www.wkbw.com/sports/bills/report-bills-planning-to-move-on-from-tyrod-taylor That "report" came out just 4 days after Taylor's clean out interview where he mentioned he'd be open to the possibility of restructuring: http://www.wkbw.com/sports/bills/bills-qb-tyrod-taylor-on-starting-job-it-was-taken-from-me Sure sounds to me like posturing very early in the process for OBD after they heard Taylor would be open to restructuring. I think it's quite reasonable to believe that OBD immediately salivated over the idea of saving a bunch of money on his contract and then started leaking all these stories and reports to "credible" NFL guys. Even Shefter and Carucci never directly say "a source told me that..." The phrasing is always "all indications are" or something like that. That's a subtle but important difference. Look, I'm not saying it isn't what happened. It might have been what happened. But making a statement like "it was a forgone conclusion" that it would happen based on some vague reports from Carucci that also don't even directly say anything about Taylor actually inevitably being cut if he didn't take a paycut. You keep believing what you want. But it's your opinion. It's not fact or "a forgone conclusion."

Yeah... because if you find it on the Internet, it must have been so. Here's a very simple question: Can you find a direct quote from Whaley/McDermott/Pegula/Dennison or ANYONE who worked for OBD from January to March of 2017 who said that Taylor needed to take a pay cut or he would be cut? If you can't find any direct quote of the sort, IT WAS NOT A FORGONE CONCLUSION... PERIOD!!! That's not me being angry... simply me making what should be the final point on the subject Nope, you're wrong. I'm not saying it's not true. But it absolutely is NOT a forgone conclusion that Taylor was going to be cut. Keep saying it if you want, but saying it doesn't make it so. Google works just fine. You apparently aren't using it correctly. Find a direct quote from someone involved at OBD that Taylor would have been cut if he didn't take a pay cut. I'll wait...

As we perhaps start to get back to the "rat hole" I started us down, one of Fahey's most critical points was how overvalued QBs are when it comes to wins. He actually talks in great depth about it. He still argues that QB is the most important position on the field, but whereas most attribute (I'll use arbitrary numbers now) 40-50% of the credit or blame to team wins and losses on QBs, the number is closer to 10%. And part of his goal was an analysis on the skills QBs demonstrate on the field and how traditional stats don't fully convey what a QB can and does do. And that stats often belie QB play on the field. None of his points were about correlating wins although he does talk about them in the process of his chapters, anecdotally discussing the impact of the stats on each player. It's elaborate and thoughtful. And yes, subjective. But (we assume) equally subjective. That's why I think it's ridiculous to just dismiss him because you don't agree with him as GoBills808 is simply because of his views on Cousins. Well, he's pretty thorough and thoughtful about his discussion of Cousins, and when people dismiss Fahey because of his views on another player like Cousins, I would ask only one question: Did you watch every single snap the QB took that you disagree with Fahey so adamantly on?

I should have phrased what I wrote better. I think there will be a threshold for McDermott on these things. If Taylor plays mediocre again, like in 2016, the 2nd option I presented is more likely than the first. If Taylor is mediocre, it's possible Taylor will still be on the team in 2018, but the team will almost certainly draft his replacement in round 1. Taylor is an All-Pro in 2017 and the team makes the playoffs and wins a couple games and you think for a second McDermott wants to move on from Taylor? Obviously that's the most extreme case, but McDermott is going to jump for joy if Taylor proves that the franchises answer at the most important position is already on the team. And let's remember, out of ALL the OCs in existence, McDermott brought in the last guy Taylor worked with before he came to Buffalo. That says something, too. Fine, you're not 100% wrong. How about 99.999% wrong to leave open that smidgen of whatever... No, it absolutely wasn't.

As should be general practice Not everyone does this... *AHEM* Here's a good example of where you can practice admitting you're wrong. These are your words directly from post #355 "The difference is that Shaw's guy was apparently absolutely certain that this was the deal he wanted."

No, it's not a forgone conclusion that Buffalo was going to let go of Tyrod if he took the deal. That's more speculation. Your speculation. Speculation is fine, but stop trying to pretend it's fact. It wasn't. I've given my reasons a number of times why, but again, the moment Taylor said he'd consider restructuring on clean out day was the moment I'm sure OBD started salivating and putting out a whole bunch of misinformation in order to find a way to get Taylor to take less money. What I just said is not fact... no more than what you said was a forgone conclusion. But what I said is about as reasonable as what you said. And I love the "I can't get behind an ounce of what you're saying" simply because despite also being reasonable, you disagree. There's nothing wrong with disagreeing, but what Shaw said and/or heard from his agent friend is pretty reasonable. People need to stop adamantly presenting opinions as facts. It doesn't make your argument any stronger.

Depends on what you mean by this. It's obvious that McDermott at least has backup plans by acquiring that 2nd 1st round draft pick from KC. Totally agree with you if that's what you mean. But if you think that McDermott is moving away from TT no matter what, I think I could say that you're 100% wrong. We can argue over what level of play Taylor needs to play at in 2017, but if Taylor plays to a certain level, McDermott will be keeping him. That level is almost certainly better than 2016, so Taylor needs to improve his play on last year, but if he does by a lot, Taylor's staying. Pretty clear that McDermott isn't planning on just tanking by bringing in an OC who's worked with the team's starting QB in order to give him some continuity and hopefully hit the ground running. The Bills are in a great position right now. Either Taylor plays really well in 2017 and we use our extra draft pick to retool this team even more to become a quick contender OR Taylor plays poorly, is (probably/possibly) cut, and then the Bills find a way to draft "their guy" in the 1st round in 2018.

Oh, so nothing was actually directly said by Taylor. It's all, "from what I understand," which very easily could have come from his agent, whose agenda is obviously to get Taylor the most money while getting him with the team Taylor wants to be with. Again, I provided you with a direct quote where Taylor said he'd consider restructuring. You're giving hearsay. Foxxy, my mind remembers just find, thank you very much... unfortunately Thurm is twisting things towards his own narrative. And now that Thurm has been proven wrong, we probably won't hear from him again for awhile... Whoops! What? Are you confusing me with someone else?

Here's the interview I referred to. http://www.wkbw.com/sports/bills/bills-qb-tyrod-taylor-on-starting-job-it-was-taken-from-me If the Bills declined the option to bring him back for the 2017 season, would Taylor be open to the idea of restructuring his contract? "It's too early to tell right now. Maybe that's a possibility down the line, but we'll visit when and if that happens." Not saying anything about being unwilling to take less money. Whoops

Link? I'm talking about his interview on clean out day. I'm not talking about something we heard through his agent. Do you have a link to where Taylor ever directly said he wouldn't take less money?

This is interesting and actually does lend some credence to Shaw's argument that Taylor is "betting on himself." But man, look at that list of QBs who are in the top 8... Whoof...

Really interesting perspective on the franchise tag with Watkins and Taylor. I agree that I didn't think they were ever planning on moving on from Taylor, though we're never going to be able to prove it. Taylor stated right after the season ended he'd consider restructuring. That's what opened Pandora's box and the reason just about anything coming out of OBD should be taken with a grain of salt, including the supposed Hoyer interest, which could simply have been used as leverage. An NFL organization hears that a player is willing to restructure a $40 million guaranteed contract in order to stay with the team...? HELL YEAH you do whatever you can to make it happen while running no risk of losing him since you can always just exercise the option!!!

We live in the age of social media and the Internet. Everything is easy access now. Saying you live in Philly doesn't give you any more credibility than anyone else regarding Wentz. I have NFL Game Pass and access to All-22 and have watched a good bit of Wentz just for fun. His career could go in a couple directions. He looks like a good pick by the Eagles at this point but he went through some serious growing pains his rookie year and really struggled as the year progressed. It's too early to say what he'll be for sure, yet you just feel like you have to...

It's too bad that you don't actually understand that you need to consider all the outside variables that influence QB play when you evaluate QBs. And there are lots of outside variables, some that influence more than others. My argument was never that Taylor needed to light it up in 2016, it was simply that he needed to sustain what was a pretty high level of play. I even remember giving specific criteria breaking all of that down, but at some point (and I was using "if Taylor has a Passer Rating 85-90, the team would have to really evaluate Taylor and all the factors involved with his decreased production before keeping him") the team would have to evaluate and determine if it would be best for the team to keep Taylor as the Franchise QB. It's clear the Bills organization is now still in that evaluation mode. But make no mistake, if 2016 resembled 2015 much more closely, it's likely Taylor wouldn't have been prodded by the media about being open to restructuring, Taylor wouldn't have said he was, and the team wouldn't have followed suit with a tumultuous non-committal (at least publicly) 2 months. None of this matters. Taylor is still being evaluated and will be for the 2017 regular season. If he plays more like 2015, he stays. If he plays more like 2016, he's not here longer than 2018 as a placeholder because the team drafts the future. If he plays much worse than 2016, I'd bet the team cuts him, takes the dead money hit, and finds a way to get the QB of the future.

My bad... gotcha. We agree, then.

You don't think a difference of 8 or 9 is a fairly significant difference in passer rating? As to the numbers like yards, TDs, and INTs, Smith and Kaepernick did that in 2 more games than Taylor. They averaged about 20 fewer yards than Taylor passing, just for starters. (We're really talking passer rating alone, but if you were to bring in rushing yards and TDs his numbers look even better) And I'd still challenge the question your asking that those were mediocre years for those QBs. They weren't great. But they weren't the negatively mediocre years you imply they were. Again, you're the one who brought up these QBs and wins (you still haven't explained your point, you just tried to accuse me of confusing the issue even though I genuinely don't understand why you brought up wins if you weren't associating them with those QBs) and both of those guys were also on playoff teams, with Kaep making it to the Super Bowl. I think most thought Kaep was a franchise QB after 2013, actually.

It's not really that some of us have a higher tolerance, it's that some of us are able to step outside of ourselves as Bills fanatics and understand that while Taylor's 2016 year was, on the whole, disappointing, that there were a bunch of factors that negatively influenced the team as a whole and to varying degrees directly or indirectly impacted Taylor on the field, including: - A turnstile at RT - A WR corps that was, at one point, Walter Powell, Justin Hunter, and Brandon Tate - An OC to work with in the offseason and start the season who reportedly was on the hot seat from the time the 2015 season ended - A switch in OCs after 2 games - A Head Coach who makes terrible coaching decisions like punting on the opposition's 41 yard line in OT - A defense that yields three 200 yard rushers in one year We understand that there's a human component to this and that there are tons and tons of variables that play into both QB and team success and that good QBs aren't just automatically good. If that were true, David Carr would have been the great Texans QB he was drafted to be. What we're hoping for is that with the coaching change, there will be a lot less tumult and a lot fewer of those negative variables and if Taylor's season still resembles 2016 more than 2015, we're happy to move on and eager for the 2018 draft with 2 first round draft picks. No one's happy with mediocrity. Some of us are just seeing the bigger picture differently from you and believe the bigger picture calls for some patience. Because ending up with the Browns or the Jets might mean more money now, but it also means playing for the Browns or the Jets in their current situations.

As Figster says below, why believe any report or indication? It's like the pre-draft process... Chicago played the draft absolutely brilliantly to get their guy in Trubisky. Hell, even Trubisky was shocked he was taken. We have no clue if Cleveland (or some other team) would have taken him before Chicago at 3, but they managed to keep all their cards to themselves during the draft all the way up until the moment he was picked even after they traded up. No one will ever know what really happened for sure or what the motives were from the time the season ended until the time Taylor renegotiated his contract, but it's a fact that Taylor said that he'd consider restructuring his deal right after the season ended. With a set date of March 11th to make a decision and CAP restraints and the ability to retain Taylor no matter what reports, negative or positive, came out, it would have been fiscally irresponsible for Buffalo to try to get Taylor to renegotiate. You say Buffalo was prepared to move in a different direction. Where are those indications? More "the Bills were reportedly interested in ________" reports... ? Sorry, no one can say they know for sure, and that's why anyone who says they know for sure why or how this happened deserves to be greeted with great skepticism. Ummm... okay... So you're saying stats only mean something in a win? You've summed up precisely where I am

Wait... you were actually saying that Smith in 2011, RG3 in 2012, Kaepernick or Foles in 2013, and Wilson in 2014 were playing as mediocre QBs in the years they earned high passer ratings? Or are you arguing that mediocre QBs can have years where they earn high passer ratings? If it's the latter, I agree. If it's the former, not so much. I think you need different examples, to start, because Alex Smith in 2011 and Colin Kaepernick in 2013 don't really imitate the quality of Taylor's 2015. The point here that Shaw has made and that I agree with is that while Passer Rating may be flawed on a small scale sample size. One game with a high passer rating means very little. But those random exceptions to the rule that you came up with (what was it... 40/40 for 200 yards and one TD vs. 20/40 for 350 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT) are going to become less and less likely.

I think that's something I'd like to see, too, but I don't know how you really quantify it. And that becomes EXTREMELY subjective at that point. Actually, Fahey begins his chapter on Taylo with this issue in the very first paragraph: “A quarterback could go to the Pro Bowl every year if he made half the throws that Tyrod Taylor leaves out on the field each week.” Those were the words of the MMQB’s Andy Benoit. Benoit has consistently been one of Taylor’s most ardent critics and that was his most damning statement. It’s a fair criticism of Taylor that he will miss open receivers at times. Whether the veracity of what Benoit states is true is more debatable. ​ He follows this up with a discussion of the Raiders game, one of the games Taylor is most widely criticized for in terms of not being able to find open WRs. In conclusion of that game, he states: It was tough to find the open receivers that Taylor had supposedly missed. There were plenty of examples of the pocket collapsing before anyone could get open. The Bills didn’t look to work the middle of the field with short and intermediate routes. The Raiders realized this and used aggressive man coverage outside that forced the receivers to win one-on-one on isolation routes. Although Sammy Watkins was on the field, he wasn’t showing off the burst that has made him such a dangerous receiver. Watkins wasn’t getting open and neither were his teammates. Shaw, you keep saying it's $30 million guaranteed, but (having not looked at the contract in awhile) from what I recall, it's not actually $30 million guaranteed because the Bills have the ability to cut him at the end of this year. Granted, there's a good deal of dead money involved, but Taylor is not guaranteed $30 million. I could be wrong, but if I'm not, this seems a central premise of your argument and I just want to make sure you (and your agent friend) have the facts straight.

If you say so

I'm going to repeat the argument I've made time and time and time again. ON A PER GAME BASIS, if Taylor can do exactly what he did in 2015 every single year of his career, which means passing yards per game (217), completion % (63.7%), rushing yards per game (41), almost 2 TDs per game, and a turnover every other game, he will rightfully NOT be going anywhere. That's if, and only if, he can do that every single year of his career on a consistent basis. We saw a dip in 2016, so based on 2016 alone, he couldn't keep that up. And if 2017 looks like 2016 in terms of production, I expect the Bills to use their arsenal of 2 1st rounders and other draft picks (and maybe Taylor himself... ?) to trade up to draft the franchise's QB of the future. However, if he's able to get back to producing all the numbers from 2015 or better, the Bills aren't moving on from him and it's doubtful they bother drafting a QB early again. Again, I'm talking production. If he produces like 2015 or better, however he does it, he's not going anywhere.