transplantbillsfan

I'm glad the Bills didn't practice on Christmas!!! Nice reward for the players in a well played season.

Merry Christmas to all my PPP pals!!! May all your Christmas wishes be fulfilled... well, except for one sorry... had to do it. MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!

First of all, drops are a stat tracked by the NFL and they're extremely conservative... only the most obvious ones. The whole ball velocity too much argument goes out the window for these because they're blatant. And the Bills have a higher drop percentage of any team in the NFL. These aren't numbers I'm making up. You're a Chiefs fan? If the Bills had the same drop percentage as the Chiefs, Allen's completion percentage goes up to 60.5%. He would also pretty naturally have a higher YPA, too... at the very least. Is 60.5% good enough? Well, right now 58.8% seems to be good enough as far as this season goes, but 60.5% would obviously just look better optically. And then imagine if the Bills had the drop percentage of the Falcons at 1.1%... Allen's completion % goes up to 62.5% And remember... those stats only account for blatant drops, not the catchable ones you think I'm talking about. But Merry Christmas nonetheless.

Actually I don't particularly care about completion percentage as far as how it relates to QB accuracy, I care about it because it means plays are being made on the field. I've maintained for awhile now that completion percentage doesn't reflect accuracy. I just pretty firmly believed his completion percentage would go up significantly this year because we've upgraded our talent. It has gone up, but not as much as I thought it would. I didn't anticipate we'd have the highest drop rate in the NFL despite the upgraded talent. And I am not saying that game was an L because of Mahomes. If you read what I said, I said it was the best game for a non-Patriots QB in the last 2 years. They didn't lose that game because of him. No. They also didn't win the game in Foxborough because of him, either. This is all about cherry picking with this, isn't it? If Josh Allen hits Knox on those 2 EZ attempts, the Bills win. Right? That's the logic here, isn't it? Okay, same logic would be last year if Mahomes didn't throw that interception (the non hail Mary), the Chiefs would have won that game. So if this L was on Allen, that one was on mahomes, right?

I get it for Allen. I really do. He needs reps and muscle memory. I suspect they won't play the starters the entire game. Guessing they sit guys after a quarter or two

Sorry on this earlier guys... 2nd time I forgot to move the decimal point. now it's correct

I assumed the poster meant the game the Chiefs won this year. Yes that game you point to is the best game the Pat's defense has allowed for an opposing QB over the last 2 years--though Mahomes also threw 2 INTs in that game... one could certainly argue those 2 picks determined the outcome... and what was the outcome of that game? Did the Chiefs win or lose?

https://theathletic.com/1483422/2019/12/23/sandos-pick-six-are-the-seahawks-super-bowl-chances-doomed?source=shared-article purely from an offensive EPA standpoint, the Bills outperformed all but two New England opponents this season (Baltimore, Houston).

And in the last 7 games the Bills have played the #2, #5, #6, #7, #9, #11 and #28 pass defenses by traditional yards. If you wanna go Defensive DVOA, we've played the #1, #4, #5, #13, #14, #23 and #32 pass defenses according to that metric.

Okay I'm going to piggyback off a post earlier from @HappyDays... now updated with the last 2 games Allen has now played in 27 games: Games 1-5: 60.4 passer rating Games 6-10: 70.3 passer rating Games 11-15: 80.8 passer rating Games 16-20: 82.5 passer rating Games 21-27: 88.8 passer rating

Did you know that Alexander was also pivotal to stifling the Ravens a few weeks ago??? https://theathletic.com/1444660/2019/12/09/seven-observations-from-bills-loss-josh-allen-has-another-weak-spot-to-fix-and-bills-create-the-lamar-blueprint?source=shared-article 3) Bills provided the NFL a blueprint for the Ravens offense The Ravens brought their unique offensive scheme to Buffalo, and the trouble with teams defensive game-planning for them so far has been overthinking it. The Ravens offense bring a lot of speed, which provided a challenge on paper for the Bills. Baltimore is primarily in a personnel grouping that dictates the defense gets into its base formation, which meant a lot of strong-side linebacker Lorenzo Alexander for the Bills. Alexander, 36, has been a dependable player for the Bills but struggles in the change of direction and getting to the edge quickly enough to make a stop. Using a bigger defensive back instead of Alexander, seemed like a logical change for the Bills. Still, they stuck with Alexander all game and he rewarded them with a fantastic performance. In total, Alexander took 71 percent of the team’s defensive snaps and was part of the grand effort to limit Lamar Jackson in a way that no other team has to this point of the season. Let's not overreact

I think we should all feel really good about Allen's improved 2nd season

I'm fine sitting the main starters we can sit as far as numbers are concerned, but I wonder if they don't give Allen at least a series or 2 to give him some reps for muscle memory's sake.

Allen attributed his inaccuracy especially early in the game to nerves and he's come out and said the 1st Patriots game this year changed his perspective on a lot of things, particularly as it has to do with protecting the football. Personally, I think some of these overthrows (both Knox misses in the EZ) might be connected to that mindset... one of slight overcompensation in order to not risk the pick.

Patriots and Bills are tied for 2nd in total drops, but the Bills drop rate is 4.7% vs the Patriots drop rate of 3.7%. If the Bills had the same drop rate as the Patriots, Allen would have 5 more completions, bringing his completion percentage up to 59.9%.

A game that proves my point. Mahomes wasn't great in that game... threw an early interception, actually. He was aided by a great defense that day... along with a couple great Special Teams plays. The Chiefs Defense held the Pats offense to less than 300 yards (Bills D gave up 414) inclusing a few 3 & outs (Bills D held the Pats to only one), 4.5 yards per play (Bills D gave up 6.1), and a ridiculous 16% 3rd down conversion rate (Bills D allowed 50%). Plus the Chiefs got a big defensive play with a blocked FG. Pretending that's a game Mahomes and the Chiefs win if the D doesn't show up like that with the way he played is a bit silly. Look at last year when the Chiefs lost to the Pats in Foxborough... Mahomes couldn't carry his team on that day.

Does an incompletion hurt the team more than an Interception? Do you think another QB in the NFL makes that 4th and 1 yesterday or vs Dallas? One needs to weigh it ALL when thinking about the QB, not just whether he missed a few throws he should have completed... although once again, at that point, shouldn't we also factor in the 22+ passes that our WRs, TEs and RBs dropped this year?

It'd clearly be fair to then also ask the question if our record would be different if our WRs, TEs and RBs caught the 22+ balls they dropped this year that were thrown to them. Right?

Do we? Are you assuming this with the exact same play calling? Swap QBs and many don't make a number of the plays Allen made.

Yss... this is the kind of crap about Daboll that irritates the heck outta me.

Bill Belicheat Defense vs a 2nd year QB in his 26th career start at home on a national stage. Can you tell us how that typically goes for the young QB? Again, Allen missed some critical throws, but he also wasn't suckered into costly mistakes Patriot defenses. The only thing Buffalo's defense had to do was keep Brady & co out of the End zone with 9 minutes remaining and Buffalo wins. That's how McDermott has built this team... for us to win in those situations. This game may be an outlier for our Defense, but I bet the players on D would put this game on themselves as well. Allen, if we're all being objective, did better than anyone would have expected considering the circumstances. He has work to do obviously, but I think this game probably should be more a shot of confidence for him than one of dejection.

Yet the Bills defense let the Pats gain 417 yards, which is 63 more yards than they average per game.

https://theathletic.com/1480032/2019/12/22/7-observations-from-bills-patriots-josh-allens-moments-of-greatness-undone-by-inconsistency?source=shared-article The infuriating end to the final drive Regardless of the hot-and-cold quarterbacking Allen provided, the young quarterback was white-hot to begin their final offensive possession. He moved the ball with ease and racked up six first downs to get the Bills all the way down to New England’s 8-yard line. Despite all of their inefficiency throughout the game, Allen and the Bills had a good chance at forcing overtime. And then, the Bills got a bit too predictable for my liking. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has done a good job for most of the season while trying to manage life with a high-variance second-year quarterback. However, Daboll’s personnel grouping decision starting with first-and-goal was a misfire. Heading into the game, wide receiver Andre Roberts had participated in 96 offensive snaps all season and had a grand total of three receptions to his name. Usually, when he’s in the game, it means the Bills are likely to run the ball to the edge to take advantage of his blocking prowess. There have been a few examples of the Bills trying something unique with Roberts on the field, but they tend to run it wide when he’s in the game. The Patriots saw this, played the odds and thwarted the Allen sweep left for a 1-yard loss, which also set the tone for the next three downs. Allen flat missed Knox on second down, but then the Bills were in a negative, 3rd-and-long situation. From there, the Patriots brought pressure to Allen; he couldn’t do anything with it, and New England escaped with a close win. The Bills could have put themselves in a much better position to keep the Patriots on their toes to start the goal-to-go situation by maintaining the personnel that helped get them there in the first place. The Bills had the Patriots guessing, and then they took the guesswork out of it with the game hanging in the balance.