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Everything posted by Doc Brown
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What trait is that?
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Not necessarily as Gabe will do what's best for his career. He could be promised a bigger role than us by another team and take it hoping to parlay that season into a future contract.
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There's enough sympathy for RB's that if you were to add an incentive to the last year of their rookie deal that's pry the position you do it at. Also, we're only talking about $3m that might not even be earned. He still runs the risks of all the guys that we did sign to extensions this year avoided. Getting seriously injured on the last year of his rookie deal.
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Shows you the value of an offensive line when even an elite RB on a poor line can only give you 3.9ypc. Meanwhile, he goes to the Eagles with a great o-line along with a dual threat QB and puts up video game numbers with 2005 yards rushing and 5.8ypc.. You saw the same thing happen with Derrick Henry with a great o-line with the Ravens and a dual threat QB. He averaged 4.2 ypc with a mediocre o-line and then 5.9 ypc for 1,921 yards with a good offensive line in Baltimore and probably the most dual threat QB's in the league We have those elements in place but just don't have an elite back that can take advantage of it.
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I'm almost positive they can but not 100%. The question then comes in whether the performance based incentives are likely to be earned (counts against the cap) or not likely to be earned (won't impact camp unless player reaches it). I'm still a little fuzzy on who makes that determination.
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The solution is really is really easy to avoid any kind of holdout and I'd love for somebody to tell me if you can add incentives to a rookie contract on the final year of a deal. If he can get up to maybe $3m in incentives you'd still get maximum effort from him, keep him from being a distraction, and not have to commit long term.
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Good.
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These two are really the only points that need to be made. Most teams that give out premium second contracts to RB regret it within a couple of years. Maybe 15 to 20% or so don't. RB's usually start to decline after age 26 regardless of the wear and tear on their body.
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Why not see if he can do it again before signing him to a long term contract? It's way more likely he regresses to the mean and puts up between 5 and 9 TD's. Jamaal Williams scored 17 TD's in 2022. The other six years he played the most he put up was four TD's in a season. Barkley put up almost double the yards Cook did last year and still rushed for three less TD's.
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Unless they pay him more than $11m it doesn't matter how much another team pays below that. The Jaguars have to pay the rest of his $11m guaranteed. Pittsburgh only had to pay the veteran minimum for Wilson last year ($1.2m). The Broncos had to foot the rest of the bill and pay $37.9m to get to his guaranteed salary of $39m.
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If he did a four year $60m extension you'd still be paying him $13.2m per year which is still bad business for a RB that doesn't even play half the snaps.
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Easy solution is to just add some incentives (up to $4m) to his contract this year. He'll work and play as hard as he did last year with a future contract on his mind. For the cap specialists on here, is that allowed on a rookie contract?
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His $11m guaranteed this year from Jacksonville has offsets so we could pay him the vet minimum ($1.17m) and Jacksonville has to foot the rest of the bill. There's no incentive for Gabe to sign above the vet minimum. The question now just becomes if both sides are interested in a reunion.
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The Bills pry value Knox more than fans do as he does a lot of little things that go unnoticed. Knox is our most complete TE and he's a much better blocker than I thought he'd be coming out of college. In theory he should be the perfect compliment to Kincaid who is more of a finesse TE that is a better route runner but relies less on physicality to get open. Hawes was drafted to fill the Quintin Morris TE3 role. Nothing more. You're right that Knox is overpaid given his receiving production but if I was Beane I'd need to have a replacement plan in mind before just cutting him after next season. A lot can change in a a year though. That's funny. It took me about ten seconds to realize that's not some psychological syndrome I haven't heard about.
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Knox was always a developmental prospect though as he was extremely raw coming out of Ole Miss where they barely used their TE's in the passing games. It seems more to look at his 3rd and 4th year because of that. Not that dissimilar to Allen as far as a project goes.
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Curtis Samuel has more yards and TD's because he has more career games. The rest have played less games. Forget all the INT's when targeted, drops, and an inability to create much separation....... if you were him would you want to go back to your own team where you used to be WR2 and fight for a roster spot? There has to be teams out there that are more attractive than this one who would guarantee him more playing time. The Jets, Steelers, Chargers, Seahawks, and Giants come to mind.
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It will be exactly the same as before but each import includes a fortune cookie.
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First things to look for when the schedule comes out
Doc Brown replied to Charles Romes's topic in The Stadium Wall
Oh I don't go to church. I'm just trying to justify sleeping in on the weekends. What's a subscription level? Do you have to prepay to go to church now? -
How much of that is the addition of Kincaid though? He had 49 catches for 587 yards in 2021 and 48 receptions for 517 yards in 2022. Last two years he only had 22 receptions. In the four games Kincaid missed last year he had 11 catches for 141 yards. Extend that to the whole season it's 47 catches for 599 yards. Similar to what he had the non Kincaid years.
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First things to look for when the schedule comes out
Doc Brown replied to Charles Romes's topic in The Stadium Wall
Are all International games scheduled for 9:30am? Does Goodell just hate church goers? I may be old enough to be a grandpa but in my defense it's been a regular habit of mine since my early 20's. They encourage it in Spain. -
PFF Receiving Grades FWIW. They factor in passer rating plus more variables (DOT, YPR, Drops, etc.). Pretty much the same but they give Kincaid a little more love. Knox didn't have enough targets to qualify. Shakir - 77.85 (27th of 98 WR's) Kincaid - 76.6 (8th of 37 TE's) Coleman - 69.4 (60th of 98) Palmer -68.3 (62nd of 98) Samuel - 62.6 (85th of 98) Moore - 58.6 (93rd of 98)
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First things to look for when the schedule comes out
Doc Brown replied to Charles Romes's topic in The Stadium Wall
No 9:30am International games. As few 4:00 games as possible because it messes up my 5:00 nap. -
Their skill sets are redundant and they'd rather pay Metcalf over a mental case. They could sign K. Allen or Cooper to add to the WR room if they still want to try this year by signing Rodgers.
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Josh also has a great rapport with guys covering Gabe. If I were him I'd rather have a reduced role somewhere else than going back to your old team in a lesser role. Pittsburgh makes a lot of sense. Giants make a lot of sense if he wants to reconnect with Daboll.
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McDermott loves him too. I don't think they'd have signed Moore if they knew Gabe was going to be released. They still might sign Gabe though.