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Everything posted by Doc Brown
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Even if you think he can defy the odds what's the hurry in extending him when you have a year left on his rookie deal and have the option of using the franchise tag next year? I guess I just don't get why there's such an urgency amongst fans to extend him now?
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Not adding a RB in the draft makes me worried that Beane will give him an extension using this exact logic. Running back skill is the position most dependent on speed and strength. The human body will naturally deteriorate starting at age 27 regardless of the wear and tear on the body. RB's fall off the click the quickest and Cook is even more likely to hit a wall within the next year or two because relies mostly on speed. There's outliers to the age 27 natural drop off but I don't want Beane to pay for an outlier. Especially since we're paying a QB elite money and will always be skirting with just getting under the salary cap every year. Let him play out the year and if he puts up similar numbers I'd rather franchise tag him for one more year than extend him for top of the market value right now.
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The non exclusive franchise tag should be on the table if he has the same impact this season that he had last season. No way I'd extend him though.
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I'd be more open to it if the data of RB's declining after age 26 wasn't so damning. Beane has the rare advantage of seeing how how an older brother (siblings share anywhere from 37 percent to 65 percent of their parents genetic variants) declined once he hit age 27. I'd even consider a franchise tag next year depending on how he performs this upcoming season.
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Trying to be more optimistic in life. I said I was being more confident than usual because the one seed is more attainable than ever at this point. Five out of ten of the teams that won the one seeds made the Super Bowl since the playoffs expanded in 2020. Once they started seeding in Super Bowl X, 53 of the 100 teams that made the Super Bowl were number one seeds in their conference. We've lost one this year. Darn it. There goes my optimistic goal.
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Diggs wasn't a burner but he was excellent at creating separation and that's why Allen and him had such great chemistry. Josh is a very visual QB and an average NFL starting QB anticipatory thrower. He usually waits until he sees a WR open and then uses his bazooka arm to get it there. It's why having a WR with separation skills is more important to him than someone like Joe Burrow. That was my problem with the Keon Coleman pick and why I was hoping to hear Ladd McConkey was the 33rd pick after day 1 last year..
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More confident than usual because on paper it's the easiest path to the number one seed we've had. There's so much luck and randomness involved in those late Divisional and Conference Championship rounds I'd pry go with around a 25% chance to get there. Lower than some on here but much higher than the Vegas betting line.
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After age 27 is where you usually see a pretty quick dropoff at RB regardless of wear and tear. Peak seasons of a RB are usually between the ages of 24 and 26. For historical context, even Thurman Thomas had a drop off at age 27 going from 4.8 ypc to 3.7 ypc. Cook's brother's best years were when he was 25 and 26 before being cut when he was 27 despite coming off a pro bowl season. The Vikings who are very analytics driven could see first hand the decline in speed. The Jets in all their brilliance couldn't. Maybe James Cook can defy the odds after next season but I'd be fine with another team taking that gamble.
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Seems that way. I come here to distract me from the headaches of everyday life and was only getting a headache arguing with him. I tried the same tactic with my doctor when he told me my LDL's were high so I should eat less meat and I said "we're going to have to agree to disagree."
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Thought Exercise: Best Bills QB (99-2017) who'd be JA17 backup
Doc Brown replied to boyst's topic in The Stadium Wall
Does Rob Johnson mean nothing to you? -
Is there an NFL team with a weaker WR group than the Bills?
Doc Brown replied to Pete's topic in The Stadium Wall
Pry not but if it can even come close to last year we're already in a better position given how heavily we invested in defense this off season. I know it's said every off-season but getting the #1 seed is vital for obvious reasons. Especially with on paper the 5th easiest schedule based off over/under betting odds. Our division has never been weaker. Almost all the tough games this year (Chiefs, Eagles, Bengals, Ravens, Bucs) will be played at home. Houston's pry are toughest road game but we'd pry be favored right now. Barring an injury to Allen there's no excuses to not get the #1 seed imo.. It's the one situational variable that we haven't had the last five years in the playoffs. -
First things to look for when the schedule comes out
Doc Brown replied to Charles Romes's topic in The Stadium Wall
Oh. Pry should've caught that the first time. I was thinking the Weyslean Church now has a membership fee? -
I doubt you're capable.
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TE's seem to be more willing to do the right thing.
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Yeah. I saw that joke on Twitter. If he was from here it would be produced a Pope before a Lombardi.
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A trade is definitely possible as it saves the Bills $6.2m. If we cut him it would only save $2.7m. The suspension of Hoecht complicates though. You'd have to be okay with Groot, Bosa, Jackson, and Solomon as your four edge guys. If we could find a trade partner I'd probably do it. Epenesa was pretty poor last year.
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Do you know what hindsight is and why it matters when comparing the 2023 WR class compared to the 2025 WR class?
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You're honestly confusing the hell out of me. You're also asking a really dumb question. We have the benefit of hindsight with the 2023 WR room and we have no clue how good this 2025 WR room will be. So the best way I can answer the question is if you asked me to rank both WR groups before the start of each season it wouldn't be close. The 2023 WR room would look far better than the 2025 WR room mostly because we had an alpha WR1 going into 2023. Diggs was coming off a 1,429 yard season with 11 TD's. Davis was younger and there was still optimism that he could improve because of the high ankle sprain he had early in the season in 2022 as WR2. Harty and Sherfield were being sold as untapped potential that could blossom with Josh Allen as the QB. Shakir we weren't even sure was going to make the team. Right now on paper our best WR weapon is a tiny slot guy that can attack the short and intermediate areas of the field but isn't a deep threat. The rest until proven otherwise would be considered an average WR3 or 4 on most teams.
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Clowney had double the pressures last year (44) than Epenesa (21) on only 30 more snaps. I don't want the Bills to sign Clowney as it feels we're bloated at that position already but he's a better player than Epenesa in both run defense and rushing the passer.
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Misread. Gabe was a decent #4 as Allen's passer rating targeting him was 100.1 and 103.8 before we moved on from Brown and Sanders. He didn't have any significant injuries during those years either if I remember correctly. When given the snaps that a WR2 typically gets though he dropped down to 80.8 in 2022 and 84.7 in 2023. Same thing with the Jags before his injury but even worse with a lesser QB (61.5). Brown's last year here as WR2 had a 110.9 passer rating when targeted and Sanders had a 99.7. I'd pry rather have him than Moore as WR5 but my preference would be Coleman, Shakir, Palmer, and Samuel seeing the majority of the snaps.
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You have way more faith in Elijah Moore than I do if that's your preference. Emmanuel Sanders is the only one that really stands out.
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Is there an NFL team with a weaker WR group than the Bills?
Doc Brown replied to Pete's topic in The Stadium Wall
Kind of what I expected given his play up to this point. Eating $2.5m in dead cap is something the Bills have done before with OJ Howard ($3.2m) so he's not guaranteed a roster spot imo. -
Now I hope they wear pink just to piss you off.
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Can you grasp the concept that Davis should've never been a WR2 to begin with? You're also ignoring the impact that a true #1 WR like Diggs was when evaluating a WR depth chart.