Logic
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Posts posted by Logic
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I agree with Bill Barnwell (which is a sentence that makes me ill to type).
There are some "anonymous NFL sources" who just INSIST that Josh Allen is worth a top 10 or top 5 pick. I'm not buying it. He SO CLEARLY demonstrates many of the traits of a colossal bust. And yet, a 6'5" frame and a cannon arm have a tendency to give NFL scouts complete amnesia and hypnotize them into thinking "we can make something of this kid!". I won't bite. Allen will bust.
Why can't these guys learn?
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9 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:
The biggest difference between these two is that Snead found the quarterback and Whaley struck out. Snead hasn't been the greatest drafter, but found a couple of great players. Generally speaking, I really liked a lot of what Whaley did but he could not get that quarterback, and when he did take a shot, he took the wrong guys. And now he is out of the league.
That is why this draft is so important to this regime and finding the right quarterback is #1 priority by a long shot.
Yeah...having the 1st overall pick in the draft is usually mighty helpful in that regard!-
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7 hours ago, #34fan said:
I must say I'm disappointed in the young fella... He couldn't outrun three donut-addict cops?
I'll keep my two firsts, thank you very much... Might pass even if he's there at 12... Which could happen.
Meh. Your avatar picture is Nathan Peterman, so I'll take your quarterback analysis with a shaker of salt. -
I liked Whaley when he was here and rooted for him to succeed.
That being said, he went all-in on maxing out the roster -- which I can't necessarily blame him for -- and it wound up putting the Bills in a bad place with the salary cap. It's as if he sacrificed any semblance of long term vision in the name of immediate success. Again, with the Bills still struggling under the weight of The Drought during his tenure, I don't blame him all that much for trying to end it once and for all. But again, the Bills were not in a good place long term.
Beane and McDermott, on the other hand, seem to be able to plan for the future and enact a long term plan WHILE keeping the roster competitive in the present. That bodes well for the Bills. I'm optimistic about the future of this team under the leadership of these men.
Oh, and by the way...you know who reminds me a lot of Doug Whaley? Rams GM Les Snead. Never met a trade or splashy move he didn't like. Collects talent rather than building a TEAM. All in on immediate success at the probable expense of long term success. I'm glad we don't have that kind of guy at the helm any more. I'll take Beane over Snead all day.-
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The thing that keeps making me shake my head this draft season is "the Bills need a guy with a big arm for that Buffalo weather!".
Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't Cleveland, New England, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, and both New Jersey teams also play in bad weather from time to time? Don't ROAD teams play in bad weather? You don't hear people constantly talk about "The Browns should take Allen over Darnold because of that swirling Lake Erie wind!".
When you hear analysts talking about Buffalo, they always make it sounds like the farthest reaches of Siberia. It's just not that extremely different than other northeast based teams! It's ridiculous! -
Josh Rosen, Baker Mayfield, and Mason Rudolph will be the only QBs from this draft to have long careers as starters. The rest will either bust or wind up as backup journeymen at best.
Saquon Barkley will NOT be the most prolific, successful RB from this draft.
Derwin James and Harold Landry will both be drafted before Minkah Fitzpatrick.
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Coaching, heart, and luck.
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The thing that is key to remember, in my opinion, is that the Bills have set themselves up in such a way that they can trade up for a QB and STILL have a nearly full complement of draft picks. Now, it maybe true that if they have to way overpay to move all the way up to #2, this may not be the case. But let's say they give up their two 1sts, a 2nd , and a 3rd to move to the #5 spot. They would still have a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, two 5ths, and a 6th. That's basically a full draft.
Another thing to remember, as others have pointed out, is that the Bills aren't going to be able to completely build their roster up in just one offseason, even IF they use all of the draft picks they currently possess. I think that McDermott's comment about "not as far along as people think" was meant to temper expectations for the 2018 season. This is year two of a rebuild. I believe they get their QB this year and let him learn on the job for a year. Then NEXT season, the Bills spend a bunch of the $90million in cap space they have and their full complement of draft picks to really "complete" the roster, as much as a roster ever CAN be completed in the NFL. They are following the model of "get a rookie QB on a cheap contract for 5 years, and use that window of low QB cost to build the roster around him". It's the best bet, in my opinion, and I'm glad that OBD seems to agree.-
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Seeing what Gase has been going through (Culture Change attempt coming too late....roster filled with "me-first" guys being purged on the fly) makes me really thankful for the way McDermott and Beane have handled the Bills roster since their arrival.
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While I was sorry to see Eric Wood retire, it couldn't have happened in a better year for the Bills. There are at least three legitimate day one starting centers in this draft. I hope Buffalo gets one of them.
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He'll do well in New England.
He's a 3rd down slot possession receiver.
I won't lose any sleep.-
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McDermott's defense needs two things to thrive: interior pass rush and quality, fast linebacker play.
Of those two, I feel that the interior pass rush (DT) group is deeper this year. I think we can get a quality guy in rounds 3-5.
That being said, my choice is Leighton Vander Esch ILB Boise State.
I think he'd be just what the doctor ordered in terms of quarterbacking the defense for the next decade. I also think there's at least a decent chance he'll still be on the board at 22. So if the Bills hang on to that pick, I could see them selecting him.-
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4 minutes ago, mikemac2001 said:
No they changed colors
Looks to me like they have both the white and dark helmet colors. Look at the video showing the helmet. The part where they show the white helmet? That's with their updated logo.
They seem to have both colored helmets. -
7 minutes ago, slaphappy said:
I only hope they can identify a QB prospect better than past regimes. Not new info on here but in the last 17 years only 17 of the 50 1st round QB's went on to have a franchise changing career.. and that's if you throw in Chad Pennington. Two of the 33 busts where friggin Bills picks. 9 QB's taken later than round 1 had impact.. 0 of those were friggin Bills picks.
So to sum it up.. my biggest fear is these guys not knowing what an NFL QB looks like even if he visits them 4 times.
I have to say...this is a big fear of mine, as well.
I like Brandon Beane a lot, but there's a small part of me that really doesn't like the fact that he's not a dyed in the wool, hardcore football background, 10 years as a scout kind of guy. I know he worked his way up and paid his dues and yada yada yada, but actually knowing what a franchise QB looks like? How are Brandon Beane's player evaluation skills, really? I have full faith that he'll be excellent with the salary cap, free agency, contract negotiations, people management...all the non rookie talent acquisition parts of the job. But his expertise as a drafter remains to be seen, and I really hope it doesn't cost the Bills a franchise QB in exchange for the third 1st round QB bust of this millennium.
And then you have McDermott. Sure, he was around McNabb and Cam Newton, but had no hand in selecting or coaching either guy. He's a defensive mind through and through. Luckily, it's not his job to stock the cupboard with groceries. But you figure he's at least giving his input as to what items should be on the grocery list.
Here's hoping for both their sakes that they know what to look for. -
I thought teams weren't allowed to have two different color helmets?
This rule was passed a few years back. It's why, for instance, it wouldn't be possible for the Bills to use their red helmets as a throwback/alternate option.
Perhaps that rule is no more? How do Titans get to have two different colors? What gives? -
1 minute ago, Chuck Wagon said:
But what if he's good?
I mean....I'm not denying that's a possibility.
I just happen to think the odds of it happening are quite low.
I'd love to watch his career from afar. Say...as a New York Jet. THAT I'd like to see.
Allen as a Bill, though? Gross.
All any of us have are opinions at this point. No one really knows. My opinion is quite clear and consistent: I think Josh Allen is a bust-o-rama waiting to happen.-
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Why oh why does Josh Allen have to exist?!
He's really bringing down what has otherwise been a really fun draft buildup.
Still, the fear that OBD trades a bunch of picks to move up and draft him is really, REALLY raining on my parade.
To give up as much as the front office has given up (Watkins, Dareus, Darby, Ragland, Jones, trading down instead of taking Watson/Mahomes last season, the numerous picks it will take to move up) just to draft JOSH ALLEN?!?! Please God no! And does Beane really want to stake his CAREER on the guy?
The whole thing makes me queasy.-
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8 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:
Whew! That's good to know. Thanks.
LOL we have a shot at ONE of these players. Maybe two.
Okay, what No. 1 receivers are going to be on the market in FA next year? And LOL at including Reilly.
I deeply apologize. I hope your snowflake didn't melt.
Sorry. For some reason, I was under the impression that you actually wanted to have a discussion. Ya know, since you were the one who started the topic and all.
I should have remembered: there are two types of posters on football message boards:
Those who want to have earnest and multi-faceted discussions about various topics and who are open to input, contrary opinions, and who treat others with respect since, ya know, it's just a football message board after all.
-- and --
Those who only make posts to prove a point, and who will reply as many times as it takes to tell everyone with contrary opinions that they're wrong. These types of posters aren't interested in actual discussion, only with making sure everyone knows how correct and smart they are. These types of posters also often belittle, mock, and name-call. It's their go-to weapon. And if anyone dares point out that they're acting like a know-it-all bully, they go with the old standby "sorry, snowflake!"
I'm done wasting time with this. You are clearly a world class intellect. None of us are worthy. Have a lovely day.
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4 minutes ago, racketmaster said:
Maybe people that hate Allen so much are asking the wrong questions.
If they asked themselves when has a qb with Allen's physical traits (size) and rare arm strength (Favre, Elway, Stafford level arm strength), solid character, mobility etc. ever completely failed?
I hear Jamarcus Russell comparisons but that is unfair and like comparing Johnny Manziel to Baker Mayfield. Personality and work ethic matters. And when you combine that with rare physical traits it seems like it could be difficult to completely fail.
Jake Locker
http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/jake-locker?id=2495194
Elite size, rocket arm, great intangibles. Out of the league after three years. -
1 minute ago, racketmaster said:
Who said Allen played Division 2 football? He played for Wyoming in the Mountain West Conference.
If you want stats that are worse than Allen's then look at Brett Favre.
Brett Favre at Southern Mississippi at had career 52.4% completion rate. His stats overall were pretty low and a 52-34 TD/INT rate.
You're totally right on the Division 1/Division 2 thing. My bad. The Mountain West IS mostly pretty abhorrent in terms of NFL caliber talent, though.
That being said, Favre was drafted 27 years ago. People have also cited Dan Marino as a sub-60% guy that turned into a Hall of Famer. He was drafted in 1983. Football was quite a bit different then.
In terms of more RECENT draft history, Matt Ryan (who was .1% shy of 60%) and Matthew Stafford are the only sub-60% guys that I can think of who have had success in the NFL. -
9 minutes ago, racketmaster said:
Matt Ryan was a 59.9% rate at BC and had a 56-37 TD-INT rate. Allen is 56.1% and a 44-21 TD-INT rate.
So Matt Ryan had a higher completion percentage and threw for more touchdowns in Division 1 than Allen did in Division 2?
Is this supposed to make me like Josh Allen?
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16 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:
By the way, I think you seriously misperceive McBeane on this one. Yes, they are Christians and they believe there is great value in that, but I don't think Christian is anywhere on their checklist. These guys are detail oriented and methodical. They can tell you without notes exactly what it is they are looking in a QB, and they will evaluate each guy against those criteria. They aren't taking a guy because he's a Christian, and they aren't not taking a guy because he's a Jew. They are way above that.
I hope you're right about the importance they do or don't place on faith and squeaky clean off-field behavior. I KNOW you're right about how methodical and detail oriented they are. Mr Pegula even mentioned it recently when asked what it's been like to work with Brandon Beane: "It's amazing how methodical he is". He mentioned it a couple times.
It's fair to say that WHOEVER the Bills select at QB, McBeane has done their homework. And no matter who it is, even if it's Allen, I'll be behind him 100% and root for him to succeed. And I will have faith that the these guys must have seen SOMETHING in the prospect, since they're basically staking their jobs on his success.
Me, personally? It's so simple from where I sit: If I'm gonna bank on a set of qualities and stake my job on drafting a QB with said qualities, I'll choose throwing accuracy, competitive fire, chip on the shoulder, leadership, and proven production over cannon arm, ideal build, perceived upside, and projected growth 10 times out of 10. I really, really hope the Bills select Baker Mayfield. In my own opinion -- and it's just that: an opinion -- people will look back in 5 years and not be able to figure out how everyone couldn't tell from afar that Mayfield was the best of the bunch. He has Hall of Fame and "most popular Buffalo Bill of all time" potential. But he's two inches too short and he's borderline arrogant, so we keep seeing him listed as the 4th or 5th best QB prospect. I don't get it.
We'll see. April 26th can't come soon enough. -
3 hours ago, Domdab99 said:
Hey, it's possible, and I hope it works. But who is Rosen or Mayfield going to be throwing to, exactly?
That question makes it sound as if Free Agency doesn't exist, and that the Bills don't have $90 million going into it next year.
Additionally, the picks we would use to move up would only be from this year's -- and potentially next year's -- draft. If we hit on the right QB, he could be here for 10+ years. That being the case, the notion of being temporarily minorly hamstrung in terms of draft picks does not dissuade me from wanting to identify and select said QB. Besides, if said QB is good enough, he will elevate the receivers already on the roster (Benjamin, Jones, Reilly, Clay for starters). -
I'll see your "Moving up to #2 = no playoffs for the next three years" and raise it a "No franchise QB = no Super Bowl Championships for the next decade".
Under normal circumstances, I might be inclined to agree with you, but the Bills' 2018 draft is not "normal circumstances". They've spent two full offseasons offloading talent after talent JUST to accumulate picks for this very purpose. As it stands now, they could reasonably trade up, get a quarterback, STILL have a decent amount of picks to use this year, and then go into 2019 with nearly $100 million in cap space to build around the young QB.
Can't say "maybe next year" forever. Go get a QB and be done with it.-
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History tells us the NFL is terrible at evaluating quarterbacks
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Thanks. I've seen that throw and that video before.
Unfortunately, watching highlight videos doesn't give you a very honest appraisal of a prospect. For every "wow" throw he makes -- and I fully admit that he makes some jaw-dropping throws -- there are two or three easy misses that make you question if he can do even the little things consistently well. I've seen simple swing passes, drags, and curls be overthrown, picked off, or wildly inaccurate too many times to count in the games I've watched of Allen's.
I love that he can make those big time throws, but if he can't keep his offense on schedule by completing the easy stuff, then those big time throws won't matter. You know who got drafted because of his mobility, ability to throw the ball to the moon, and occasional jaw-dropping throws? JP Losman. But heaven help you if you needed him to complete a 5 yard curl route on 1st down.
I'm still not biting. Allen will bust.