Logic
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Just to add to my previous post about the YPRR thing. This goes back to 2015. 1,000 yard season producers in the NFL are highlighted in bold.
A little scary, no?
(also, Hi Justin Shorter, we see you)
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7 minutes ago, Cash said:
I'm not thrilled about it either, but in my experience every analytical metric touted as a be all, end all for anything usually winds up not holding up to scrutiny. Either because of an arbitrary cutoff (The Curse of 370), lack of sufficient sample size, or poor and/or biased interpretation by the analyst. So I see no reason to sweat it.
I mean...I see at least a LITTLE reason to sweat it.
It's not just one thing, ya know?
Coleman's actual college statistics, his YPRR, his Reception Perception graphic from Matt Harmon...it's a pile of things.
Of course there are always outliers. The thread in the Tweet I just posted mentions that DK Metcalf and Terry McLaurin didn't clear the 2.0 YPRR threshold either, and obviously both guys are good NFL players. So it's not a guarantee, by any means. People beat the odds.
Still, to completely disregard this stuff when it's actually a pretty decent sample size over several years strikes me as fingers in your ears, "la la la I can't hear you" kind of thinking.
Those of us that didn't love Coleman as a prospect have just as much and as valid a set of reasons for reaching that conclusion as the people who look at the same prospect and feel optimistic that he'll succeed.
He's a Bill now, so I will obviously be rooting for him. He's a very likeable guy, and the Bills NEED him to be good. But I'm not going to suddenly pretend I loved the pick. That would be dishonest of me.-
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I'm sure this is fine....
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Give me Chark or Boyd or OBJ (as long as any of them are on a reasonable contract) after June 1st and I'm good to go.
The WR corps needs one more legitimate guy (Cephus doesn't do it for me). Accomplish that and let's roll.-
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2 hours ago, sven233 said:
It's not the lack of speed in the 40 that is necessarily concerning. Would you like to see it at least a tenth faster? Yes. What is concerning, though, is the tape. Speed aside, the biggest problem he had in college is that he doesn't get consistent separation. It's great that the next gen stats show that play speed isn't an issue. It is a relief in a lot of ways. But, that still doesn't change the game tape where even the receptions he does make, come with a CB all over him. So, maybe the coaches see something that they can help him with in terms of release, route running, etc. that he wasn't doing in college that will use that actual play speed to his advantage. If they do, and he works at it and becomes successful with what they are teaching, many of the other skills in a WR are there for sure. But, unless the coaching staff has an idea of how to fix his separation issues, he is going to have to find ways to win against better competition in the NFL.
My guess is that I think they believe they have a plan for how to incorporate him into this offense and put him in advantageous situations. I think the offense might look dramatically different than it has the last several years. Brady has an entire off season to implement his full offense instead of just piecing things in here and there as the weeks went by last year. I don't know......I am just searching for reasons to believe Coleman will make a major difference for us this year and it's tough when all I have to go by is his college tape and I see him struggling to get open. But, like I've said all along, even though I am critical of him in a lot of ways, the things he does well, he does EXTREMELY well. I am going to put my trust into the coaching staff to help him win with scheme here and there and play to his strengths.
This is it in a nutshell for me.
I'm a big "film over everything else" guy.
So honestly, the 40 time doesn't bother me one bit. The gauntlet drill is nice, the next gen tracking is nice, all of that stuff is encouraging.
But when you put on the tape of Coleman in college, it shows A LOT of him being blanketed by college corners. There are times when he's completely well covered by guys on Syracuse or Duke or Pitt. And if he's not getting separation against them, why should I presume he's going to get it against Jalen Ramsey, LaJarius Sneed, or Sauce Gardner?
Yes, his route running should improve with pro coaching. And yes, his body should continue to grow and mature, and maybe that will unlock some new improvement.
But it's not unreasonable to be concerned that a guy who didn't get great separation in college may not just SUDDENLY learn how to get it in the pros, when the level of cornerback talent goes up a million percent.-
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4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
Sure, I too don't expect to seriously contend for a Super Bowl this year. I guess I just don't have a lot of optimism that they're going to go all in on pass catching weapons next offseason. Seems like every year except for 2020 we get to November and we realize that we don't have enough weapons, and every offseason they punt on seriously investing in the position until the following year. Then the following year comes and it's rinse and repeat. What makes you optimistic this regime will suddenly make it a priority next year? And why not add those weapons now so they're developed and ready to contribute in 2025 when our second Super Bowl window should be opening?
Amen.
Even if the Bills do FINALLY decide that 2025 is the year they're going to seriously invest in some offensive weaponry in the draft, then we'll hear "well, rookie WRs are slow to adapt to the NFL. 2026 is the year we should really be ready to dominate!".
The can keeps getting kicked. It's always "next year" that we'll address these deficiencies once and for all.
There will never stop being defensive depth needs and special teams needs. Until this team decides that they're going to prioritize using premium capital on offense ANYWAY, I fear we'll keep getting to January and having to count on guys like Trent Sherfield, Mack Hollins, and the ghosts of John Brown or Cole Beasley.-
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Us Bills fans got to go from a decade of Brady/Gronk dominance straight to a decade of Mahomes/Kelce dominance.
We're so lucky.
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5 minutes ago, BeastMaster said:
The Eagles had arguably the worst defense in the league last season, so they have a major weakness which this team does not have. We are top ten on each side of the ball, so while you may think their roster is considerably better, the results last year say otherwise. They also traded for AJ Brown who is arguably their best player...he wasn't drafted by them. Jalen Hurts was a hit, but I think he had a bit of a fluke year when they went to the superbowl. The jury is still out on whether he is worth the contract he got. Their linebackers and secondary are abysmal, and they have taken low character/off field issue players when they fell to them. That is high risk, high reward.
If you wanna crucify Beane for not hitting on elite talent, then best of luck to you finding the GM that hits on them while maintaining a roster that you can manage cap wise, personality wise, and keep well rounded like this one...cause he has done just about everything else you could ask for. He brought in Diggs which payed dividends for his tenure here, and Miller looked to be that difference maker on defense until the injury, so he recognized the need and addressed it with proven commodities...luck just wasn't with us.
I wouldn't trade our roster for the Eagles whatsoever. There was internal issues there last season, and AJ Brown is another Diva that brings as much drama as he does receiving talent. Allen is clearly superior to Hurts, and I'll take our good Oline and defense vs their great Oline and poor defense
I'm so confused. Didn't you already post this an hour ago? -
6 minutes ago, boyst said:
i tried listening to a few clips that were released early and just grossed out by her desire to try to make sounds way to complicated. using fortnight as a time, or anything like that...nah.
if i want women in music to sing about heartache i'm back to Stevie Nicks. How can anything beat this? Stevie Nix live and for the first time singing it live on camera to Lindsey Buckingham who she wrote it about and he broke her heart?! His dead eye stare at her as he plays guitar...
Taylor Swift is just like Stevie Nicks, but with a jock boyfriend instead of the world record for "most cocaine snorted in a 5 year period".
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7 minutes ago, boyst said:
He is the most unlikable guy in the NFL because he was already a megadouche but now all of these tweens eyes are upon him about being a good man/role model because crazy taytay think her #1873839392 option of a man is a good one.
F'n both. Everything after 1989 sucks.
Her new album is straight fire, Boyst.
You're missing out
(I don't know what that emoji is supposed to mean, I just like it)
1 minute ago, 90sBills said:
If KC wins the Superbowl this coming season he retires. Mypredictionwishful thinking.
😁-
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Just now, jkeerie said:
It says it's an extension, so it must be added years.
So...not only do we have to deal with him on KC for longer than hoped, we also have to deal with Taylor Swift in the fan suite. Ugh!
I actually love that part of it.
I'd way rather see her beautiful, smiling, joyful face than a shot of Chiefs fans in the crowd or of a grinning Tony Romo or a walrus-mustached Andy Reid.
I am not at all amongst the anti-Taylor crowd. Her collective 47 seconds of air time during a 3.5 hour broadcast don't bother me in the least.
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I expect a big rebound season from Kelce (you're a pretty awesome player when 984 yards and 5 TDs marks a "down year" for you, btw).
Hollywood and Worthy are gonna open a lottt of things up for Kelce in the middle of the field. I also think that whatever injury and romance distraction nonsense happened last season will likely be in the past.
He is and will continue to be the de facto number 1 pass catcher in KC for the foreseeable future.-
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6 minutes ago, jkeerie said:
Does this just replace the old deal he was already on, meaning he's tied to the Chiefs through 2025, or does it tack on two NEW years, meaning he's tied to the Chiefs through 2027?-
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9 minutes ago, BeastMaster said:
If you wanna crucify Beane for not hitting on elite talent, then best of luck to you finding the GM that hits on them while maintaining a roster that you can manage cap wise, personality wise, and keep well rounded like this one...cause he has done just about everything else you could ask for. He brought in Diggs which payed dividends for his tenure here, and Miller looked to be that difference maker on defense until the injury, so he recognized the need and addressed it with proven commodities...luck just wasn't with us.
I wouldn't trade our roster for the Eagles whatsoever. There was internal issues there last season, and AJ Brown is another Diva that brings as much drama as he does receiving talent. Allen is clearly superior to Hurts, and I'll take our good Oline and defense vs their great Oline and poor defense
I haven't crucified anyone. I'm a fan of Brandon Beane's, and I could make a big, long post talking about all the great things he's done here. I'm glad he's the GM of the Bills and, for the time being, I'm glad he's gonna continue to be the GM of the Buffalo Bills.
There's a culture around sports teams sometimes that if you question or criticize ANYTHING a GM or coach does, you must be some kind of "hater". I am very clearly NOT that. I'm one of the most optimistic Bills fans you'll ever meet, and I like both our GM and our head coach.
It's okay to have differences of opinion with some of the moves that a general manager makes. It doesn't mean it's a crucifixion.
As for the second bolded line: Again, that's my argument. He's done just about everything else -- short of bringing in much elite talent the past five years -- that you could ask for. That's my whole point. Brandon Beane does literally everything OTHER than draft difference makers for this team. That's why I continue to believe he's a very good GM, and that's also why I believe it will continue to be hard to get over the hump and win a title. He's got to find a way to bring another elite player or two. If he doesn't, I foresee many divisional round playoff exits to come. -
Nope. Not interested.
For one thing, we already filled the "Move WR who can line up at running back" role with a cheaper, faster Samuel. We don't need two of those types of players. His skillset would be redundant with Curtis Samuel.
For another, I'm not interested in committing the money to Deebo Samuel that he would likely command.
And finally, I don't think he adds the one thing that the Bills WR corps still seems to lack: Speed/explosiveness.
It's a no from me, dawg.-
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A lot of really outstanding replies today. Wow.
@MrEpsYtown @BillsVet @Cash @Beck Water et al, Thank you all. Each of you made at least one point, if not several, that I found really interesting and gave me something to chew on.
I feel after this latest batch of replies like this thread represents the best of this message board. Lots of really high level discussion. We disagree on some points, but we're doing so in a way that is civil, and the discourse around it hopefully expands each of our viewpoints a little bit and allows us to consider things from a new angle.
Great stuff from everyone. Thank you all for taking the time and expounding your thoughts.
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As someone who -- as I have stated several times in several threads -- didn't love this draft class and feel that the front office seems to have failed what I viewed as its biggest mission this offseason...
I have to say that I don't think this year can "break" McDermott and Beane, in terms of their being fired or on the hot seat or whatever. After jettisoning all the veterans they did and admitting publicly it's a "transition" year, I think that even a regression and even -- though I don't think it'll happen -- missing the playoffs wouldn't result in Beane or McDermott being ousted. I think they're viewing 2025 as the year to complete this re-tooling and TRULY compete for a championship again. The cap space that's opened up, the plethora of draft picks.
If the Bills don't make a serious run at a title in 2025, THEN I think whispers about their job security will get very loud.-
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In the most polite way I can possibly say this...and there's probably NOT a polite way...
I was trying to pick between Shakir's wife and Bernard's wife and I just couldn't.
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Good.
For one thing, Esiason and Simms are basically interchangeable to me. I'm not convinced they're not the same person.
If you moved them both around a bunch in front of me like Three Card Monte, and then asked me to identify who was who for $1,000 , I couldn't do it.
I'd argue the network barely needed one of them, but certainly didn't need both. Their pre-game show had really begun to feel old, cranky, outdated, and lacking in excitement and personality.
If the Bills are getting younger and re-tooling, then by God, CBS can do it too!-
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7 minutes ago, BeastMaster said:
Difference makers don't grow on trees, and when your draft position is near the bottom of each round it only decreases your odds of finding those players.
He made the right decision this offseason to retool the roster and do what he does which is to get us players that add to the teams quality of depth and give us a few starters hope.fully
The difference maker/makers will hopefully come via free agency next season or we use draft capital to either draft a top player or trade for one.
I only buy the "drafting late makes it hard to find difference makers" argument to an extent, particularly when Brandon Beane moves around the draft board as much as he does.
The Eagles, for instance, always seem to be picking pretty late in the draft, but I would rank their roster as considerably better than Buffalo's, and their drafts as usually superior.
As for the middle sentence that I bolded: That's exactly my point. That's what Beane does. His drafts typically get us players that "add to the team's quality of depth and gives us a few starters hopefully". What he has NOT done nearly often enough the past few years, is get anything BEYOND that. Anybody who is among the elite at their position or gets All-Pro votes.
Beane is consistently good at getting consistently good players. My contention is that he has not gotten any GREAT ones in the past five years, and we need one or two of those on our roster to have a hope of ever getting past the Chiefs on a consistent basis.
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Just now, Warcodered said:
Benford, Torrence and Kincaid are pretty early but both look really good, didn't Cook lead the league in Offensive yards?, Taron Johnson, Ed Oliver is up there as well.
As to why I rolled my eyes, it not that complicated, whether you like the pick or not it really shouldn't impair your understanding of what a ceiling is.
Thanks.
I agree that the three players you mentioned from the 2023 draft look good, and that it's too early to definitively state that any of them won't be stars. Cook looks good, too, but seems to be about the 10th best running back in football.Taron Jonson and Ed Oliver are good players, no doubt. But they have a combined zero All-Pro seasons and zero Pro Bowl nods. Johnson made a huge play in the Ravens playoff game in 2020, but in the three years since, neither guys have affected our playoff fortunes much. Even if I grant that Taron Johnson is VERY good, that was still the 2018 draft, and I was asking about the five (now six, actually) drafts since then.
Just for the sake of argument, let's assume that Dalton Kincaid and James Cook become perennial Pro Bowlers. That still means that in the five drafts between 2019 and 2023, Beane found two true standout players. And that's if the assumption even comes to fruition.
I'm simply saying that he's a guy who consistently has good drafts and drafts good players, but he rarely has GREAT drafts where he drafts GREAT players.
As for Coleman's ceiling, it's not exactly an objective reality. It's more of a subjective opinion that differs from person to person. If you believe his ceiling is as an alpha WR1, then I don't begrudge you that opinion. My opinion is that his ceiling is Tee Higgins or Mike Williams.
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4 minutes ago, Warcodered said:
I ask you, since you eyeroll'd my post: In the five drafts since Josh Allen became a Buffalo Bill, can you identify any difference makers or All-Pros that Brandon Beane has drafted?
I don't mean good players that start NFL games. I already conceded that he does a nice job at finding those. I'm talking elite players. Difference makers. Can you name any?
Mind you: I like Brandon Beane, have always defended him, and don't want him fired or anything like that. I'm happy with him as GM of the Buffalo Bills. But that doesn't mean I can't identify things that seem like problems to me (like failure to draft difference makers) or level fair critiques. And his inability to draft difference makers, to me, has been disappointing, and merits discussion.-
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Promising of what, exactly?
If it's promise of making the roster and getting playing time and contributing on some level, then I agree.
If it's promise of becoming an elite player, I don't see much of that in this class.
I very much hope to be proven wrong, but Keon Coleman looks to me like his ceiling is as a high end WR2. Maybe Cole Bishop becomes a playmaking safety. Maybe Soloman is a steal at Edge and becomes a sack master.
But when I look at Ray Davis, DeWayne Carter, a center, a couple project tackles, a special teams linebacker, and an undersized punt returner, I see what look like fine-to-good, sort of replacement level players. I see more of what Beane has done in the past: solid drafts that produce rosterable players, but no difference makers. He arguably hasn't found a difference maker in the draft since Josh Allen. Lots of good, steady, NFL caliber players. Few stars.
The norm for drafts under Brandon Beane (ever since the Allen/Edmunds draft) has become "solid to good, but never great". No home runs. No All-Pros. No REAL difference makers. Right now, this draft just looks like the latest chapter in that book.-
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10 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:
This draft looks to me like one that will help us build towards the future, while still giving us a shot this year. I'm not excited about it, but it looks solid.
You pretty much said in one sentence what I tried to get across in my long OP. "I'm not excited about it, but it looks solid".
I think that's also the answer to your question that preceded it. Given how important this draft class was and how many picks the Bills had, not to mention the opportunity they had for a sort of "soft reset", I hoped they'd swing for the fences a little more. I would've been okay with them drafting less players overall, but picking higher on a few occasions.
I realize they picked late in the rounds, but I don't think that needs to be so prohibitive when you have the capital and creativity to move around the board. The Eagles also picked late, for instance, and I felt they had a really dynamite draft.
Ultimately, I wanted this to be a "let's really focus on surrounding Josh with talent" draft or a "let's try to find a future star or two" draft, even if it meant taking some risks with current and future capital. Instead, it seems like they felt it was more of a foundational, "setting the table" sort of draft to re-stock the cupboards with things like defensive depth and special teams assets.
Solid, but not exciting.-
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Keon Coleman: Josh Allen texted me “You’re the guy I want”
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Ken Dorsey: "Josh Allen texted me 'you're the guy I want!'"