[Beane literally added a promising draft prospect at every level on both sides of the ball]

7 minutes ago, BeastMaster said:

Difference makers don't grow on trees, and when your draft position is near the bottom of each round it only decreases your odds of finding those players.

 

He made the right decision this offseason to retool the roster and do what he does which is to get us players that add to the teams quality of depth and give us a few starters hope.fully

 

The difference maker/makers will hopefully come via free agency next season or we use draft capital to either draft a top player or trade for one.

I only buy the "drafting late makes it hard to find difference makers" argument to an extent, particularly when Brandon Beane moves around the draft board as much as he does.

The Eagles, for instance, always seem to be picking pretty late in the draft, but I would rank their roster as considerably better than Buffalo's, and their drafts as usually superior.

As for the middle sentence that I bolded: That's exactly my point. That's what Beane does. His drafts typically get us players that "add to the team's quality of depth and gives us a few starters hopefully".  What he has NOT done nearly often enough the past few years, is get anything BEYOND that. Anybody who is among the elite at their position or gets All-Pro votes.

Beane is consistently good at getting consistently good players. My contention is that he has not gotten any GREAT ones in the past five years, and we need one or two of those on our roster to have a hope of ever getting past the Chiefs on a consistent basis.
 
 

[Beane literally added a promising draft prospect at every level on both sides of the ball]

Just now, Warcodered said:

Benford, Torrence and Kincaid are pretty early but both look really good, didn't Cook lead the league in Offensive yards?, Taron Johnson, Ed Oliver is up there as well.

 

As to why I rolled my eyes, it not that complicated, whether you like the pick or not it really shouldn't impair your understanding of what a ceiling is.

Thanks.

I agree that the three players you mentioned from the 2023 draft look good, and that it's too early to definitively state that any of them won't be stars. Cook looks good, too, but seems to be about the 10th best running back in football.

 

Taron Jonson and Ed Oliver are good players, no doubt. But they have a combined zero All-Pro seasons and zero Pro Bowl nods. Johnson made a huge play in the Ravens playoff game in 2020, but in the three years since, neither guys have affected our playoff fortunes much. Even if I grant that Taron Johnson is VERY good, that was still the 2018 draft, and I was asking about the five (now six, actually) drafts since then.

Just for the sake of argument, let's assume that Dalton Kincaid and James Cook become perennial Pro Bowlers. That still means that in the five drafts between 2019 and 2023, Beane found two true standout players. And that's if the assumption even comes to fruition.

I'm simply saying that he's a guy who consistently has good drafts and drafts good players, but he rarely has GREAT drafts where he drafts GREAT players.

As for Coleman's ceiling, it's not exactly an objective reality. It's more of a subjective opinion that differs from person to person. If you believe his ceiling is as an alpha WR1, then I don't begrudge you that opinion. My opinion is that his ceiling is Tee Higgins or Mike Williams.




 

[Beane literally added a promising draft prospect at every level on both sides of the ball]

4 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

I ask you, since you eyeroll'd my post: In the five drafts since Josh Allen became a Buffalo Bill, can you identify any difference makers or All-Pros that Brandon Beane has drafted? 

I don't mean good players that start NFL games. I already conceded that he does a nice job at finding those. I'm talking elite players. Difference makers. Can you name any?

Mind you: I like Brandon Beane, have always defended him, and don't want him fired or anything like that. I'm happy with him as GM of the Buffalo Bills. But that doesn't mean I can't identify things that seem like problems to me (like failure to draft difference makers) or level fair critiques. And his inability to draft difference makers, to me, has been disappointing, and merits discussion.

[Beane literally added a promising draft prospect at every level on both sides of the ball]

Promising of what, exactly?

If it's promise of making the roster and getting playing time and contributing on some level, then I agree.

If it's promise of becoming an elite player, I don't see much of that in this class.

I very much hope to be proven wrong, but Keon Coleman looks to me like his ceiling is as a high end WR2. Maybe Cole Bishop becomes a playmaking safety. Maybe Soloman is a steal at Edge and becomes a sack master.

But when I look at Ray Davis, DeWayne Carter, a center, a couple project tackles, a special teams linebacker, and an undersized punt returner, I see what look like fine-to-good, sort of replacement level players. I see more of what Beane has done in the past: solid drafts that produce rosterable players, but no difference makers. He arguably hasn't found a difference maker in the draft since Josh Allen. Lots of good, steady, NFL caliber players. Few stars.

The norm for drafts under Brandon Beane (ever since the Allen/Edmunds draft) has become "solid to good, but never great". No home runs. No All-Pros. No REAL difference makers. Right now, this draft just looks like the latest chapter in that book.

[Logic's Buffalo Bills Draft Review -- The more things change, the more they stay the same]

10 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

This draft looks to me like one that will help us build towards the future, while still giving us a shot this year. I'm not excited about it, but it looks solid.

 

You pretty much said in one sentence what I tried to get across in my long OP. "I'm not excited about it, but it looks solid".

I think that's also the answer to your question that preceded it. Given how important this draft class was and how many picks the Bills had, not to mention the opportunity they had for a sort of "soft reset", I hoped they'd swing for the fences a little more. I would've been okay with them drafting less players overall, but picking higher on a few occasions.

I realize they picked late in the rounds, but I don't think that needs to be so prohibitive when you have the capital and creativity to move around the board. The Eagles also picked late, for instance, and I felt they had a really dynamite draft. 

Ultimately, I wanted this to be a "let's really focus on surrounding Josh with talent" draft or a "let's try to find a future star or two" draft, even if it meant taking some risks with current and future capital. Instead, it seems like they felt it was more of a foundational, "setting the table" sort of draft to re-stock the cupboards with things like defensive depth and special teams assets. 

Solid, but not exciting.

[The "who I would've drafted instead" re-draft, 2024 edition. Are you smarter than the GM?]

22 minutes ago, NeverOutNick said:

This sounds fun. I’ll play later later but honestly I would’ve been fine with this draft if we would’ve taken Franklin or Tez Walker at pick 95 and Brendan Rice with our last pick 221. Get Josh an explosive deep threat and Rice is worth the gamble over a project OT that’s never played football 

Generally speaking, I agree.

If they had taken a speedy WR in the middle rounds and one more bite at the offensive skill position apple late, I also would've felt much better about things.

[New Bills WR. Former Lion Quintez Cephus]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

Would you mind providing a linky to that, because it's nothing at all that I heard Beane say 

Correction, he said "at the beginning of the season", not "in year one", which I concede is a huge difference. Nevertheless, it likely means a few weeks of Mack Hollins as starter.
 

 

[First look at Bills 2024 roster]

I'm sorry to keep bringing it up, but...

If you had told me before the offseason got under way that our week one 2024 starting lineup at WR would be Curtis Samuel, Mack Hollins, and Khalil Shakir, with Keon Coleman coming off the bench, I probably would have tried to fight you.

On paper, we have one of the worst 5 WR corps in the league. 

 

[New Bills WR. Former Lion Quintez Cephus]

6 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Oh my God. It's really going to happen. Mack Hollins is going to be our primary #2 outside WR. That is actually the plan.

Yeah. Apparently Beane said Coleman "will have a hard time starting in year 1". Something to that affect.

So Samuel/Hollins/Shakir seems to be the opening day plan (save me the "Shaver or Shorter or Hamler are gonna surprise everyone and win a starting spot!" hopium), which is just...unfathomably depressing.

I was so strongly hoping that the Bills would find a way to get better in the WR room this offseason, and they somehow appear to have gotten markedly worse. 

And then Beane has the gall to say "let's don't forget that we have good tight ends that we can throw to!".

I need a drink.
 

[The "who I would've drafted instead" re-draft, 2024 edition. Are you smarter than the GM?]

19 minutes ago, BCAS Baritone said:

I'm not a draftnik, so for this exercise, I went with picks from Dane Brugler from the Athletic.  I always kept the same position the Bills took, but picked the top guy at that position from Brugler's Beast article

 

Pick 33: WR Ladd McConkey, Georgia (went pick 34 to Chargers)
Pick 60: S Jaden Hicks, Washington State (went pick 133 to Chiefs (incidentally with the pick they got from the Bills))
Pick 95: DT Brandon Dorlus, Oregon (went pick 109 to Falcons)
Pick 128: RB Braelon Allen, Wisconsin (went pick 134 to Jets)
Pick 141: C/G Sedrick Van Pran-Granger, Georgia (Bills took the same guy)
Pick 160: LB Edefuan Ulofoshio, Washington (Bills took the same guy)
Pick 168: DE Gabriel Murphy, UCLA (undrafted)
Pick 204: T Nathan Thomas, Louisana (went pick 233 to Dallas)
Pick 219: CB Myles Harden, South Dakota (went pick 227 to Browns)
Pick 221: G KT Leveston, Kansas State (went pick 254 to Rams)

 

Now that's interesting. Taking the same positions but going with Brugler's BPAs instead. Awesome. Love it.

 

 

7 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

 

I like this exercise, though I agree with @NewEra that correct way to do it is immediately after each pick, so you don't have extra info.

 

This is also why I actually have hard time believing you and both posters below. If you wanted to double dip, are you sure that you wouldn't take Franklin at 60? At that time, it seemed like a surprise that he was still there and double dip crowd (me included) would have hard time not to take him.

 

Anyway, I can't participate fully since I don't follow college football, but what I would do based on my very limited knowledge:

 

Pick 33: Troy Franklin (I would pick Legette at 32)

Pick 60: Troy Franklin 

Pick 95: BPA at CB/S/DL/OL, so probably T.J. Tampa, Jaden Hicks or Brandon Dorlus

 

 

See above, are you guys sure you wouldn't actually pick Franklin in the 2nd?

 

Totally fair point.

In my original (pre-edit) version of this post, I mentioned within the first couple paragraphs that it was an inherently unfair exercise, because we have knowledge of where players ultimately wound up getting drafted which we can use to formulate the "ideal" draft board. Beane, of course, did not have this information, or his draft my have gone differently.

I also agree that in future years, it makes more sense to do it right after each pick. I just wonder if, in the chaos of the actual draft still being in progress, anyone would take the time to play along.

And you're right, by the way. I probably WOULD have picked Franklin at 60. I was much higher on him than NFL GMs were (as were many other people, it seems). I guess that's why I'm just a message board goofball and not an NFL GM.

[The "who I would've drafted instead" re-draft, 2024 edition. Are you smarter than the GM?]

Thanks to all the posters so far who took this thread in the spirit of fun in which it was intended and contributed your alternate draft.

Fascinating to read everyone's preferences.


 

[The "who I would've drafted instead" re-draft, 2024 edition. Are you smarter than the GM?]

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

 

Sorry, I think it’s a stupid game.  I’d recommend starting the game while the draft is going on and make your picks in real time so you don’t have the benefit of knowing which positions/players you can wait on due to players slipping.  

Fair enough. That's fine. Maybe you're right. Maybe it would've been better during the draft. Seeing as its not gaining traction the way I had hoped, maybe I'll try that instead next year.

I mostly just thought the "LAMP" response was unwarranted, because it was meant to be a participatory thing for everyone, just for fun.

[The "who I would've drafted instead" re-draft, 2024 edition. Are you smarter than the GM?]

16 hours ago, section122 said:

Isnt this a bit of an unfair exercise where we know who will still be available so we can play around with combinations?

Absolutely. Yes.
 

15 hours ago, DJB said:

Will you be bumping this thread in 3 years so we know the results ?

Yep.

15 hours ago, NewEra said:

That’s what this thread is for.  LAMP

I want other people to participate by adding their own alternate draft class. It is not meant to be a "me" thing.

I thought it would be a fun game for the draftniks on the board. Like a mock draft in reverse.

[If you’re upset about the WR room - BLAME DIGGS]

1 minute ago, Rocbillsfan1 said:

Who is to say they don’t sign a free agent like Boyd or trade for someone? Also there is only 1 football and that is mainly going to be going through cook, Kincaid, Shakir just like when they were winning last year. They added Samuels and Coleman, they sign someone like Boyd and how many more people do they need? Just drafting people to draft people doesn’t translate to winning games this year. I think when the Bills have identified weapons they like that they know will have a meaningful impact either through the draft or trade like Diggs they will strike. They drafted someone this year, relax people. 

Beane specifically said today that they won't be trading for a WR. He outright said it's not happening. So that's out the window.

As for free agents -- sure, yeah, I've conceded that IF they sign one, then that changes things. But there's no indication that's happening any time soon. When asked in his presser today, Beane said their WR room is in "good shape" and "we like the guys we have". He cited Shavers, Shorter, and Hamler. 

If they go out and sign Tyler Boyd or OBJ tomorrow, then sure, it makes the draft look a bit different in retrospect. But had they simply used one of their ELEVEN draft picks to take one, that wouldn't even be necessary. They got TWO offensive tackles. They got a PUNT RETURNER. They used a draft pick on a rugby player that has never played a down of football in his life. But no second WR.

Nothing anyone can say to me will make that make any more sense to me.

[Beane: "This team is in transition"]

5 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

A transition is not the same as a rebuild.

 

Look at this team with an Aiyuk on it.  It has a better WR room than last year.  And another rookie WR would be a waste, slotted in behind Aiyuk/Coleman/Samuel and Shakir.

Respectfully, what does that have to do with anything?

Beane specifically said today that they will not be trading for a WR. Not "maybe", not "I never say no to anything". He said "the cap is the cap. There is no trade for a WR coming, nothing like that". He said they're happy with the WR room and they're in "pretty good shape" there.

[If you’re upset about the WR room - BLAME DIGGS]

Just now, Rocbillsfan1 said:

So your answer was picking a late round wr that wasn’t going to play over Shakir Coleman and Samuel’s? That was the answer? 

My contention is that you need DEPTH in the NFL. That 3 viable WRs is not enough. That one injury will have us depending on Mack Hollins or Justin Shorter for offensive production, and that that's a bad position to be in for a team with a franchise QB in his prime.

My contention is that one of the ways to address this issue would have been to spend a 2nd or 3rd day pick on another wide receiver. The draft is a crapshoot, and the more darts you throw at the WR position, the greater the chance that one of the guys you picks turns out to be a good player. Instead, the Bills threw just ONE dart, and if he doesn't come out swinging as a rookie, the Bills WR corps will be woeful.

[Beane: "This team is in transition"]

3 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

That can change with one really good draft. 

If only we had one!

[If you’re upset about the WR room - BLAME DIGGS]

Nah.

Beane went into a very deep WR draft armed with 11 picks. He had so many that he traded one away for a 2025 pick instead.

He came out of the weekend with just one wide receiver prospect. He managed to add TWO offensive tackles, spend 4th round capital on a running back, and add a special teams linebacker and a punt returner...but he couldn't bring himself to take more than one bite at the apple at the biggest need position on the roster.

Diggs may have set things in motion, but Beane had ample opportunity to do more to address the wide receiver position this weekend and chose not to.



 

[Beane: "This team is in transition"]

Respectfully, a transition/retool/rebuild year seems like the PERFECT time to add a few rookie WRs. It's historically a position that takes a year or two to get up to speed. So why not draft more than ONE wide receiver when you have a screaming need at the position, 11 draft picks, and a deep WR draft class? Let them get their feet wet in this "transition year" and from 2025 onward, we're off and running.

I don't see why having a transition year and meaningfully addressing your biggest roster hole with more than one player should have to be mutually exclusive.

[Logic's Buffalo Bills Draft Review -- The more things change, the more they stay the same]

19 minutes ago, Freddie's Dead said:

*****in' A Bubba, you nailed it.  Another year of defense and only two skill players on offense.  We're supposed to believe that in the deepest WR draft in years, the Bills didn't have any other WRs worth drafting?

Yeah. You said it well, and @FireChans said it well.

The Bills came into the draft with a SCREAMING need at WR and 11 draft picks at their disposal in a very deep WR draft.

They picked just one WR. Exiting draft weekend, WR is STILL their biggest roster need.

It really, REALLY doesn't make any sense to me. 

No one can convince me that packaging some of those late picks (heck, they had so many that they didn't even want to use them all, and traded one away for a 2025 pick) to move up higher in the 4th and grab one of Franklin, Baker, or Walker wouldn't have been a great move. Or even using our last 5th on Malik Washington. 

Huge need, surplus of picks, deep WR draft......and yet you get ONE guy. And that one guy is 20 years old and will likely take a couple years to fill out and learn what he needs to know to be a good pro, to boot.

We are one Curtis Samuel injury or slow developing summer from Coleman away from having to depend on Mack Hollins or Justin Shorter to play major offensive minutes. It's roster malpractice.

 

[Logic's Buffalo Bills Draft Review -- The more things change, the more they stay the same]

33 minutes ago, FireChans said:

To @Logic’s point.

 

what is the biggest need on the Bills roster today?

 

WR.

 

what was it 3 days ago?

 

WR.

 

That’s unacceptable.

Well said, and in way less words than I said it (brevity has never been my strong suit).

Thank you!

[Logic's Buffalo Bills Draft Review -- The more things change, the more they stay the same]

12 minutes ago, TH3 said:

Whatever dude

 

Well stated.

[The "who I would've drafted instead" re-draft, 2024 edition. Are you smarter than the GM?]

3 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I don’t have access to a tiny fraction of the data Beane does.  I run IVF labs.  It would be like having folks here tell me I’m wrong about what embryo to transfer when they haven’t even had high school biology.

Yeah I mean..it's a game. It's supposed to be for fun. I was not seriously suggesting that anyone here would be a better GM than Brandon Beane. It's more of a "how would your draft class of choice stack up against the pros" kind of thing.

[Logic's Buffalo Bills Draft Review -- The more things change, the more they stay the same]

11 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

IT'S A TRICK!

 

It's true, but meaningless; what big-bodied WR catch meister WR has Allen had the opportunity to form a connection with? The only one I can think of is 2018 Fat Kelvin, who, as I noted above, was RIP at the time with the only pass he was interested in being preceded by "puff, puff,..."  He had the lowest catch rate in the league at the point where we released him, commentators had been noting his lack of effort on the field for weeks, and neither the Mahomes-led Chiefs nor the Giants 

 

@Logic, you started this out by stating "Josh Allen has historically thrived with fast, shifty WRs who separate well, and has not clicked with big-bodied guys who struggle with separation."  When, other than rookie year with Fat Kelvin, in Josh's 6 years in the league, has he played with "big bodied WR", whether they struggle with separation or not?

Yes, I grant that he hasn't had many to work with.

The one that he most recently HAS had to work with was Gabe Davis. Davis's limited route variety, stiffness, and lack of separation ability all led to his being thrown to less and less, until by the end of last year he was barely a meaningful part of the passing game at all. 

My contention is that if we KNOW Josh does well with the fast, shifty guys, and we know that he has not historically demonstrated the same success with bigger guys -- albeit in a smaller sample size, and albeit with a less impressive group of players overall -- then why take on this experiment and this change in philosophy now? 

After we just saw his connection with big, limited, non-separating Gabe Davis deteriorate to the point of non-existence, why go back to the well of that type of WR?

[Logic's Buffalo Bills Draft Review -- The more things change, the more they stay the same]

22 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

True or false the most talented WRs he's had have been: "smaller bodied (relatively speaking) WRs whose strengths are route running and separation."

True. Do you grant that my statement is also true?

If so, the sum total of those two true statements would seem to be "The Bills should continue to draft smaller bodied WRs whose strengths are route running and separation.