oldmanfan

3% > 0%. Math and stats have taken a beating around here today.

Tie keeps slim playoff hope alive. A loss kills it.

Cool. Glad we can have a good back and forth even though our opinions differ.

Depends how much snow affected your hand.

See, this is where you go off the rails. No one is kissing his behind. No one is saying you can't be critical. But what I would say is when folks say they can understand the call, and those who don't reuse to accept things like the weather having an influence (not you but others) it just gets ridiculous. You would agree I suspect that there are those here that look for any excuse to rag on the coach. Even after a win, as has happened several times this year. It just gets over the top.

Don't bother. When you want to say variables don't affect statistics it's clear the guy is clueless. This must be I think the third win of the season thus far where people complain more the next day then if they had lost. Bizarre behavior.

Yeah, I would agree with you on going for it. I would have as well and if your offense can't get you a yard when you really need one then you deserve what you get. I am simply saying I can understand the rationale even though I would have made a different decision. I would take exception to luck being the difference. You rely on your punter to make a play and he did, you rely on your defense to hold and they did. And then you rely on your offense to make a play (which of course he also could have done on the fourth and one), and they did. The only luck I guess was the pass to Thompson, but Webb made a great throw and he made a great catch.

As I suspected no real analysis of factors such as the conditions. t's a graph and does not give me any idea what data they use to generate their numbers. I have taken graduate level stats. You need to buck up on your understanding of statistics before making claims that the math proved he was wrong. You don't understand what you're looking at.

They get it at their 40. Even if they don't make a yard, their punter kicks it say 40 yards and now we are on our 20 yard line. And have to go at least 70 yards with likely no time outs (because I assume we use our two to save time), and because passing is so difficult it would be difficult to pass and get guys out of bounds to stop the clock. As I said before I would have run on fourth down. But you and others seem to want to ignore the field conditions, when that was the single biggest aspect of the game yesterday. The thinking had to accommodate that. The most amazing play I've seen in a long time was the pass to Thompson. Incredible.

So the fact that I said I would gone for it on fourth down means I agree with McD, right? You see, grownups can look at things and try to understand the thinking behind a coach's decision as opposed to hysterically rant about it. Now about variables. Yes, variables count is statistics. A whole lot. In fact, the entire reason statistical analysis exist is to determine the effect of given variables on a set of data. And the biggest variable yesterday was the weather conditions. So since you cannot send me the math that you are basing your hysteria about, and now claim ESPN has it, send me the link to the ESPN data. Somehow I suspect that won't be forthcoming anytime soon.

As I said earlier I initially did not like the decision, and as I also said I would have gone for it. But upon reflection I can understand his call for these reasons: 1. You can try and ignore the conditions all you want but the conditions were the dominant part of the game yesterday. 2. The two most important players on the field yesterday were McCoy and Gore, but the SECOND most important were the punters. 3. So let's go through the scenario given the first two things. If you go for it and don't make it, you are essentially playing at best for a tie at that point. Because the Colts then get the ball around midfield, and even if you hold them on downs you have only two timeouts to slow things down. They then punt, and pin you back in your part of the filed. 4. Now you have the ball, you're around 80 yards or so from the end zone, or say 70 yards away from being able to kick what would normally be a chip shot FG but would be anything but that given the conditions. No way you're likely scoring and thus the best hope is a tie. And that ignores them actually scoring and winning outright. 5. By pinning them in their end, you essentially reverse the above. Schmidt was having a good day. You pin them down there, you bring safety potentially into play as a way to score. You get a turnover game is over because you're right there to score. Or of course you get the ball after they punt, and you're closer than yopu would have been other wise to score. As I said, I would have gone for it. But I don't think is was as easy a decision as some want to make it out to be. And it's all because of the weather conditions. gnoring that is simply not being realistic. McD said he wanted to get the field position, and as it turned out that was a smart call.

I asked you to direct me to their site where they have the stats listed so I can review them, because I cannot find them on their site. That you have refused to do so and resorted to childish insults tells me either that they do not have the data listed, that they have data listed but do not take into account variables such as snow, or that you're just making the whole thing up. Which is it? Oh, and as I said earlier I would have gone for it on fourth down if I had to make the call.Guess it's good I didn't have to.

I just went to this Number Fire site. I can't find a thing about the game yesterday, odds, etc. So direct me to their analysis if you would. Because without it your answer is meaningless. And I will bet it does not take into account all the variables.

No just the opposite. The statistical outlier were the playing conditions yesterday. Probably somewhere around 8SD from the mean. i would have went for it myself. But you don't get it odds are a tie is your best hope.

Go look up the phrase statistical outlier.

Regarding the call, if anything it took a lot of guts to rely on pinning them down in their end. Gutless is the opposite of what that call was.

Yeah. It's really ruining their record so far. Watkins is losing a lot of $$ this year.

Listening to Howard they should have

I agree this is year one of a hopeful path towards sustained competitiveness. But breaking the drought would be a welcome improvement.

I'm looking forward to next season. But I'm not ready to say this season is over yet!

I agree. Which is why I said I would have gone for it on fourth. But I can also understand his reasoning for what he did. And it did work after all. Which one? I'm trying to remember the exact order of things there at the end. Are you talking the one before the 2 minute warning? That got them an extra play.

You make the yard on fourth down then we are OK and might be able to score later. But if we didn't game was over and the best we get is a tie. You pin them in their end and you can get a safety possibly, or you maybe get a pick and then you are right there to kick the FG and win. Or score a TD. Either decision could have been right or wrong. Say on 4th and 1 Shady slips in the backfield. Then it's bad. The real issue is that people are trying to place normal probabilities, etc. into a game that was so much of a statistical outlier given the conditions. I think if I were coach yesterday I would have ran the ball on fourth and one. But I can also understand McD's decision. And it worked out. But it's not lucky. I think that's just a weak argument. McD counted on his D to make a stop. They did. Then he counted on his offense to make a play. And they did.

Go back a few posts and look at what I wrote. Yesterday's game was a huge outlier statistically. And there were good reasons to do what they did. Like any decision a coach makes it can be good or bad. If you go for it on fourth and one and don't make it it's a bad decision. And so on. This one worked.

People are talking about the odds favoring going for it vs punting, probabilities, quoting some NY Times website and so on. What yesterday's game and decision were would be considered as statistical outliers. The type of game yesterday was like 8 standard deviations away from the mean. i did not like the decision at the time. With reflection, it was correct and not just because they won. They had over 4 minutes left. In a game where each team had had one decent drive. The game situation clearly favored the defense. Pinning the down in their end opened up three potential ways to win. A safety becomes a real possibility. Plus you stop them done there you are potentially closer to FG range or a TD. A turnover down there, a real possibility given the conditions, also pretty much wins the game. In the end the decision got them an extra 14 yards. Not insignificant given the conditions. He trusted his players to make plays on D. They did. And on offense. And they did.

I looked at each of your posts in this thread. No numbers anywhere. Either show the math that says you're right or be quiet about the math showing him to be wrong. i didn't like it. But then started thinking. You don't get the yard they're closer to a FG to win and they had momentum. Pin the back you get better field position if you hold them. Have to hold them either way. Holding them deeper gives you better position. and in a game like that 14 yards is a lot. But that's math, a concept apparently foreign to you. Then show the math. You haven't yet.