HappyDays

Don't tip picks. It's such a simple rule to follow. Just don't do it.

I'm in the minority opinion on him. I see possibly a really good WR2. I don't see a WR1. Of course if we take him I'll get myself excited about the traits, just not the direction I would go.

I'm hoping Brian Thomas Jr gets drafted soon. I have a bad feeling that Beane will trade up for him if he drops far enough, and that's the one WR move I would be disappointed with.

Signing Kirk Cousins goes down as the greatest smokescreen of all time, I guess?

Adam Schefter is tipping picks live on ESPN. What a loser.

I guess you can pay a QB and two WRs.

I'm not dismissing the other issues. I'm accepting that constant investment at the same positions, to the detriment of the WR room, has not been a successful strategy. Draft a pass rusher at 28, it won't make a difference in the playoffs. You know it and I know it. Adding a WR will make a difference.

Here's the outcome if that happens - in one year we'll play the Chiefs in the divisional round. Chop Robinson or Cooper DeJean or whoever else will be invisible as the Chiefs casually move the ball up and down the field at will. Josh Allen will stand on his head and do backflips to keep us in the game but we'll ultimately fall short because no one else on offense cared to make a play. People will say "why can't Josh Allen beat Mahomes?" McDermott will have a presser that week talking about how hard it is to win and how close we are. Next year around draft time the usual suspects will say "we can't focus only on WRs, we have too many needs." Rinse and repeat. If you don't know for a fact that this would be the outcome of picking a non-WR with our first pick, you're lying to yourself.

Original post is updated with all the rumors from the past few days.

That's the sweet spot for Odunze if he falls. Gotta get in front of the Jets if we want him. Our 2nd this year plus our 1st next year should get it done.

My thought process all along has been using the 2025 2nd we got in the Diggs trade to move up into the low 50s. I think that would be enough to get it done. The idea being that you use the pick we got for a WR to draft his replacement. There are like 7 WRs that are worth being picked between 28 and 55. I want two of them.

This has been my best case scenario all along. Trade back with Washington since they desperately need a LT, in exchange get one of their 3rds. Then double dip at WR in the 2nd, trading up from #60 if necessary to make sure we get our guy. Trade could look something like this to match the draft value chart: Washington receives: #28 #128 #144 Buffalo receives: #36 #67 Come away with something like Legette & Franklin, and still have a high 3rd round pick plus a full complement of day three picks to fill out the roster.

It isn't just his mocks. His hot press rumors consistently come true. Off the top of my head one example I can think of is Jermaine Johnson. He was commonly mocked in the top 10 by most people, at worst top 15. The day before or of the draft Charlie Campbell reported Johnson was likely to slide to the bottom of the 1st round because of major character concerns. Nobody else was reporting this. Lo and behold he slid to #26.

Charlie Campbell has been reporting for a while now that the Jets pick is down to Bowers or Odunze. I really don't understand the amount of pushback I get on his reports. Is it just because Walter Football as a website kind of sucks? Because I get that, but his track record is his track record.

https://walterfootball.com/nfl-hot-press-2024-nfl-draft-week-rumors-thursday.php

I would love to mimic what those teams have done but that is going to come from a coaching change, not from intentionally diluting our talent. I know you like McDermott more than I do but even you have to admit we have seen enough of his career to know that he isn't an elite coach. I don't trust him to ever put on a defensive coaching masterclass like Steve Spagnuolo just did in the AFCCG and Super Bowl. Our offense is never going to be as creative and meticulously designed as Kyle Shanahan's under McDermott's leadership. Those are pie in the sky outcomes at this point. The only way we are going to beat teams with that caliber of coaching is by simply overwhelming them with top tier talent. Beane has described Curtis Samuel as a "weapon" not as a WR. He is the plus-plus version of what we tried to get for cheap with McKenzie and Harty. I don't think his signing tells me anything about what the Bills want to do. They have wanted that gadget player since Daboll was here, and Beane finally just threw his hands up and paid a mid-sized contract to get a good one once and for all. I don't agree we need to spend an enormous amount of draft capital. Keeping to the topic of this thread, I am not one who is banging the drum to trade way way up the board for Harrison or Nabers. If Odunze makes it to 9 that's where my appetite for trading up begins, and even then I would not want to give up this year's 2nd. My preferred strategy is trade down, draft a WR with our first pick, then trade up in the 2nd round to draft another WR. I would double dip from this incredibly deep pool of top 50 caliber WR prospects and bet on one becoming a superstar and the other becoming pretty good, and still have plenty of picks this year and next to continue building the rest of the roster. But I would rather trade way up than say take an EDGE in the 1st and get whatever slim pickings is left at WR at #60. We HAVE to maximize our chances of getting a top tier WR out of this draft. Trade way up or double dip, that's the move. And I don't agree that top-tier talent can't overcome less-than-elite coaching. As recent examples I would point to the 2017 Eagles, the 2020 Bucs, the 2021 Bengals, and the 2022 Eagles. It's certainly much harder, and that will be our handicap until Pegula makes the tough decision to move on, but it's doable.

At the end there you named the 4 best offensive coaches in the NFL. Another team I would point to with your philosophy is the Packers. Not so coincidentally that would round out the top 5 offensive coaches in the NFL. We aren't at that caliber of offensive coaching, not even close IMO. I like Brady overall but let's be realistic. With a coach of his caliber you need top tier offensive talent to have a top tier offense. And in general we should really stop using the Chiefs as any kind of measuring stick. They got shutout in the 2nd half of the AFCCG and the 1st half of the Super Bowl. Think about that - they got shut out in consecutive halfs in their final two games and they won the freaking Super Bowl doing it. They did this a few years after drafting a RB in the 1st round, a couple years after trading away the best WR in the NFL, in a season where they had a below average LT. No team should be trying to replicate their strategy. Their coaching staff is in another stratosphere compared to everybody else which means they can get away with things that no other franchise can. We don't need to be like any other team. We need to be the best possible version of the Bills, and the best possible version of the Bills absolutely has a top tier pass catcher to make up for its lack of top tier coaching.