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HappyDays

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    Buffalo News: PFF Breaks Down Josh Allen's Accuracy "Issue"

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    20 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

    2. Pat Mahomes - 35.3 PPG

     

    Yes but Mahomes isn't a precise passer either. That's actually the positive comparison I would use for Allen, not Cam Newton. Mahomes is not slicing up defenses like Brady or Brees. He excels at reading the defense, and he uses his pure athleticism to make up for less than ideal ball placement. And the Chiefs have surrounded him with an offense that can catch slightly off target passes. Kelvin Benjamin didn't go to Kansas City and suddenly learn to catch the ball. He still sucks. I take that as a sign that the offensive talent here is severely hindering Allen's ability to develop because he is the entire offense. At the same time he will need to develop and read the field better or he won't last long. It has nothing to do with his accuracy.

    • Like (+1) 1

    Buffalo News: PFF Breaks Down Josh Allen's Accuracy "Issue"

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted · Edited by HappyDays

    54 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

    Cam Newton's completion percentage went up 10 points because he threw 123 passes at Christian McCaffrey this season and McCaffrey caught 87% of them. 

     

    His accuracy didn't change at all. He just threw more passes to an elite pass catching running back. 

     

    I know. That was my point. Completion percentage doesn't equal accuracy. It is honestly the worst metric you can use to evaluate a QB on his own. I much prefer passer rating and YPA as far as traditional metrics go. Of course Allen isn't doing well in those on the whole for his rookie year. IMO the reasons for that are, in order, Allen not reading the field properly, his surrounding cast, and then his accuracy. And I consider his accuracy well below the other two problems.

     

    If he was more precise with his ball placement, say on the level of an average NFL QB, I think he'd maybe have 2 more completions per game started. That would be 20 more completions on the year, which would bring his 51.7% completion to 58.5%. Personally I see at least 2 clear drops per game which would have the same effect, and that isn't accounting for the general talent level of his offense which we all know is historically bad. If he was reading defenses on an NFL average level I think he would have an extra 4 completions per game which would be a 65.3% completion even with this useless offense around him. That is what I want to see him improve on. I don't see a ton of passes missed due to poor accuracy, at least relative to a normal NFL offense, but I do see a fair amount of poor reads and easy targets ignored.

     

    I recognize that those are all very hypothetical numbers but my eye test tells me his accuracy is not a big concern. If he learns to make the right throw, because his positive plays tend to be 10+ yards at a time, and he is mobile, we will have a very successful offense despite having a QB with below average accuracy.

    Buffalo News: PFF Breaks Down Josh Allen's Accuracy "Issue"

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    19 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

    The notion that Allen's completion percentage would be closer to other QBs when factoring in these throws was something that never made any sense. No matter how you slice it, he's one of the least accurate QBs in the league. 

     

    It depends on what you mean by "closer to other QBs." Will Allen ever have the completion percentage of Drew Brees? I highly doubt it. But he could certainly get to a more acceptable level, over 60% for sure, if he gets a better offense around him. This is a very very small sample size but in KC Kelvin Benjamin has 2 catches on 4 targets. That was our #1 receiver for half the season. Yeah it's only 4 targets but that's 50% completion to him so far, and honestly if he was the #1 receiver there I don't think that would improve much.

     

    I don't think anyone has said drops alone are forcing his completion percentage down. It is the talent around him as a whole. One thing that I don't believe gets factored into PFF's adjusted completion percentage is the ability of receivers to get separation. That has been a bigger problem for our offense than drops.

     

    Of course Allen has to get better too. No one is denying that. His biggest supporters could have told you the day we drafted him that he wouldn't look like a finished product at the end of his rookie season. But the biggest thing he needs to improve, far more than accuracy, is reading the defense and making a quick throw. I don't expect his accuracy to ever improve much and I'm fine with that. His positive traits are at an elite level so you can make do with below average accuracy, but the right team needs to be around him and he needs to learn to run an NFL offense. Roethlisberger has never been a precise QB but he reads the defense well and he's always been surrounded by receivers with a big catch radius. That's the sort of offense I expect us to run with Allen for the rest of his career if he proves himself as a franchise QB.

     

    A good example is Cam Newton. For the first 7 years of his career he completed 58.5% of his passes. In his MVP season he completed 59.8% of his passes. This year he suddenly became a 67.9% passer. And if you watch him play you will not see a guy who became 10% more accurate out of nowhere - he was pretty bad this season and was playing with an injured shoulder. But he's throwing more short passes to McCaffrey. That's the difference.

     

    FWIW Chris Trapasso said all of this right after we drafted him:

     

    https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/heres-a-plan-for-the-bills-to-get-the-most-out-of-josh-allen-and-it-involves-cam-newton/

     

    Allen has an accuracy problem much more than a ball-placement issue, and I categorize those weaknesses differently. 



    Former Bills first-rounder EJ Manuel had a ball-placement issue, meaning the vast majority of his throws that were technically accurate enough for his receivers to make a catch were typically a little too high, too low, behind, or too out in front of their intended target. 

    Allen will throw five strikes in a row with pinpoint accuracy, then launch a pass three yards over a wideout's head. That style is most manageable in a system with lower completion percentage expectations in the first place.

    For Allen to lead a successful team in western New York for the next decade, the Bills should not waste time and energy trying to fix his faults but -- ready? -- fully embrace them while highlighting his strengths, most namely his rocket arm and athletic talents at 6-foot-5 and nearly 240 pounds. Essentially, Buffalo needs to be content with a boom-or-bust passing attack.

    I think this article is exactly right. Forget trying to turn Josh Allen into Tom Brady. It isn't going to happen. Get receivers that can get consistent separation and/or make tough catches and go for the big play a lot more than most offenses. Of course Allen needs to learn to take the check down when it's there. But in general the offense will be a 1 for 2 passing where the completion is 20 yards, versus a 2 for 2 passing where both completions are 7 yards each.

    Josh Allen's progress

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    4 hours ago, Kemp said:

    Who is a comparable to Allen in terms of "raw" in college that went on to a great NFL career?

     

    It's early but Mahomes is the obvious answer. In college he had poor footwork and poor decision making, and he had no experience in a pro system. He was developed for a full season and now looks like a different player.

     

    Not saying Allen will end up putting up Mahomes's numbers next year but yes raw QBs can develop with time. Allen has already made progress since Wyoming. They're bringing him along slowly, as they should.

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