HappyDays

Please make this happen Beane.

With the 31st pick, the Kansas City Chiefs select Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia. This is somewhat of a luxury pick for a non-premium position, but there is some logic behind it. On 1st down in 2022, the Chiefs ran 12 personnel 32% of the time and 13 personnel 10% of the time. So multiple TE sets are an important part of their offense. The problem is behind Kelce it is just JAGs at the position. Darnell Washington immediately gives us a true monster at the position and complements Kelce's skill set perfectly. The Chiefs still don't have a true game changer at WR, but Andy Reid is a master at changing his offense up every year. He found a way to make an offense without Tyreek Hill even more productive by getting the RBs more involved in the passing game and focusing less on deep throws. Having a blocking TE with Washington's attributes opens up the offense in another way entirely. Now they can run heavy sets that will leave defenses reeling with the threat of Mahomes' arm always being there. Pacheco running with a full head of steam behind Darnell Washington is a frightening concept for defenses. And now a red zone offense that was already deadly just got another potent weapon. The Steelers @CNYfan are on the clock.

I've developed this fantasy in my head of the Bills drafting Bryan Bresee or Mazi Smith at pick 27, then immediately trading away Oliver and trading for DeAndre Hopkins. In one fell swoop we free up $10.7 million so that Hopkins becomes affordable and draft Oliver's replacement. Defense gets marginally worse but cheaper, and the offense gets a high impact player. I'd take that outcome right now if I could. So far 20 of our top 30 visits have been reported. Mazi Smith is on that list, Bresee is not. I won't believe Bresee is a possible pick until I know he was a top 30 visit. But he fits a lot of traits McDermott would like - high athletic upside, former #1 college recruit, faced a ton of adversity over the past year (he suffered multiple injuries including a kidney infection, and his sister sadly died of brain cancer). I've been thinking in the back of my mind that Bresee could be the stealth pick no one sees coming. That's what Elam was last year and his top 30 visit wasn't reported until very close to the draft.

Yes. Signing Von Miller was a no brainer move. The pass rush was desperately in need of a difference maker, which everyone agreed with coming out of the 2022 divisional round loss. Miller tearing his ACL was an unfortunate and unpredictable disaster. Even the people who were skeptical about his contract weren't skeptical about his level of play in 2023 or even 2024; they were worried that the 2025 and beyond part of the contract would become an albatross. Which was a fair concern, but accepting short term value for long term risk is the kind of move a team in the prime of its Super Bowl window should be willing to make. It's the same reason I'm all aboard the DeAndre Hopkins train. Von Miller's contract is not the reason we aren't able to sign an offensive difference maker right now. It's all the other bottom of the roster names that I posted above. Those players are the albatross, not the highly productive pass rusher that happened to get injured in a way that can happen to anybody.

Is this statement even controversial? Arguably the greatest QB stretch in playoff history ended after two games. What else needs to be said?

Every big QB deal eventually becomes team friendly unless the QB pulls a Carson Wentz. Right now Allen's cap hit is actually quite cheap relative to his value to the team. You want to know something crazy? In real and dead cap space, the following players combined are taking up as much 2023 cap space as Josh Allen: Tim Settle Nyheim Hines Siran Neal Jordan Phillips (including dead money from 2022) Rodger Saffold OJ Howard Matt Haack Isaiah McKenzie You'll note that only half of these players are still on the team. This is the biggest failure of Beane's tenure. Not mediocre drafting. Rather, a tendency to pay well above a given player's actual value. A tendency to over focus on depth at the expense of top end talent.

It isn't about how much they've spent. It's where the money has been spent. People blaming Von Miller's contract as the problem are missing the point. Florio and Simms yesterday actually mentioned the Von Miller signing as a positive splash move. The real problem is the contracts we've given to players like Vernon Butler, Mario Addison, Trent Murphy, Rodger Saffold, etc. All of their combined cap hits are much greater than the cap hit Miller has. So the point is that the Bills should be more willing to make splash moves/signings for impact players, at the expense of certain positional depth. None of these arguments are controversial. People are just misrepresenting what Florio said.

KC is just one example. The Bengals have invested like crazy in their WR corps. 49ers and Eagles invested like crazy in their offensive weapons (and had great OLs to boot). All of these teams were objectively closer to a Super Bowl win last year than we were. It isn't about following the exact strategy that KC did. The point is we are lacking in high end offensive talent around our QB compared to the teams that are in a tier above us.

I believe he's a player that would normally go in the top 10 of the 2nd round, but could get pushed to the end of the 1st round because it's a weak class. If Jalin Hyatt was on the board I might take him over Campbell but that's not an option here. Personally I'm crossing my fingers we do something like Campbell or Mazi Smith in the 1st round, then immediately announce a trade for DeAndre Hopkins.

I think people are overrating Wright. This isn't an elite prospect, like most OL prospects he will likely need some time to adjust his level of play to the pros. So I just don't know what the plan with him is. He plays a non-premium position and like the RT we already have on the roster his foot speed is a concern. This list of players is probably worst case scenario for the Bills. I would take Jack Campbell and know that I have a plug and play starter with athletic upside at the one position where we still have a glaring hole. I think that's what the Bills would do in this scenario if they couldn't find a trade down partner.

I think Allen and Dorsey are both self-aware enough to recognize that quick rhythm passing needs to be the theme of the season. That combined with his throwing motion being back to normal tells me you are correct.

Why did you ignore Orlando Browm and Joe Thuney?

They spent an entire offseasom upgrading the OL after getting blown out in the Super Bowl. Traded for Orlando Brown, signed Joe Thuney to a massive deal, drafted Creed Humphrey in the 2nd round. Agreed they got lucky getting Trey Smith in the 6th round because of a medical flag, but the rest was not luck; it was a specific and intentional improvement strategy. I don't need us to replicate the Chiefs strategy exactly. But I've said before most Super Bowl champions have either an elite OL or an elite group of weapons. The Bills currently have neither. To me that's where the gap still exists between us and the other Super Bowl contenders.

They talked more about this idea yesterday too: To summarize - they say that the Bills are so concerned with being at least average at every position, they've missed out on being really great at a couple positions other than QB. Specifically at WR Florio thinks we have been stubborn and that everyone other than Buffalo knows we need more there. Simms makes the case that we should do what the Chiefs did, go all in on offensive infrastructure and just have a couple pieces on defense that can make some plays.

Beane is pretty open and honest about his process every year, so I take these statements as fact.

That's what I like about the TSW mock drafts. In the real draft the teams don't go all chalk picks. There are huge surprises every year. A WR with Johnston's measurables going higher than expected isn't crazy. Too many mock drafts try to play the selections by the book. Here 32 different minds means you get some real curve balls.

Interesting that he has Quentin Johnston falling into the 2nd round. I can't imagine us passing on him if he falls to us.

Dane Brugler has a source that says the Cowboys would take Michael Mayer if he is there at 26:

Or if we take say Hyatt or Addison in the 1st round and also obtain Hopkins, we could immediately trade Davis for maybe a 3rd round pick. Davis's presence on the roster shouldn't stop the Bills from doing anything at the position, even multiple high value investments. Replacing Davis and getting value for him now before he inevitably walks next offseason is arguably the best possible outcome.

I also posted this in the draft rumors thread - I have a credible source that says the Bills really want Jordan Addison. So your preferred 1st round pick may come to fruition. In the scenario that you mocked I believe we would trade above the Giants because we know that WR is a big need for them. Much like they did with Elam last year they would take the small trade up to ensure they come away with a player they really desire.

Potentially the Saints. I know they signed Derek Carr but he is 32 years old and he isn't the caliber of QB that stops you from drafting one. The Saints could conceivably trade him next offseason and save money against the cap in 2024. For a team picking below them that really wants a QB, the risk of waiting may be too great. My logic for the Raiders being that trade up team is that everyone in that regime is now on the hot seat. Do they really want their do or die season to be in the hands of Jimmy Garrappolo? Hooker has good pocket passer size and his best traits are in the rhythm/quick passing game. I could see McDaniels liking that skill set. You figure if Garrappolo isn't getting it done, maybe Hooker steps in late in the season and leads them to some ostensibly meaningless wins, but those wins at least get the fanbase and ownership excited. That could be enough to buy McDaniels and company another year.