MAJBobby

I would like to keep him. And will overpay a bit (nature or market) but anything over 10AVV (about 3M over his value) is a hard pass

And why he will leave Buffalo and be immediately overpaid. major liability against the Run. But teams will overlook that for those sack numbers.

I would talk with Dorsey and see if he would like another hand in QB development, on thing I think about DeFilippo is there is proven QB development with him.

Seems to be helping Seattle https://www.huffpost.com/entry/mindfulness-the-seattle-s_b_4815477

***Disclaimer*** I will not put all Names not on the Bills in this thread as it would get to long, I will keep it to a couple names in each tier (as I see them). I was going to initially just do a DL thread because I think like the OL this unit has to play together to be effective, but then I thought it would be too long and hard to follow once people started commenting so for Defense I think I will go DE, DT, LBers, CB and Safety all as their own groups instead of DL, LB, DBs. Hope you enjoy the read Past Writeups Quarterback Running Backs Tight Ends Wide Receivers Offensive Line Specialists Currently on Roster: (Positional Spending 5 players 19.645M Cap) Jerry Hughes (UFA 2022) Trent Murphy (UFA 2021) – Saves 7.2M against cap if Cut Darryl Johnson (UFA 2023) – Saves 536KM against cap if Cut Mike Love (EFRA 2021) – Saves 585K against cap if Cut Jonathan Woodard (signed futures deal) Expiring Contracts Shaq Lawson (26 yrs old) UFA) (2019 AVV – 2.570M) (Projected Market Value 7-9M AVV) My Take: First, I will address the expiring contract Shaq Lawson. He has been trending positive for the last 1.5 years (both good and bad). Reason it is good he has turned himself into a very productive DE for the Bills, the bad is I think it is going to have someone overpay in Market. However, there are much better edge’s hitting the market which should keep his rate closer to his value. One thing I have seen Lawson turn himself into, is our Best Run Defending DE that we have on the roster. He also has improved his pass rush skills and has built a nice up and under counter to his Bull Rush. That being said he is never going to be an elite sacker IMO, he doesn’t have the moves, counters or first step. But can carve himself out a top end edge setter that can offer pressure from the position and would be the logical rotation with the base end positions (Trent Murphy). By the numbers: Shaq Lawson – 32 tackles, 21 solo, 13 TFL, 18 QB hits, 6.5 total sacks – All but tackles are career bests. 57% snaps. At those numbers his value is similar at Henry Anderson at (3 yrs 25.2M, 8.4M GTD) Now with Hughes, he is a little harder at this point to understand. He did regress this year but them comes out he was playing with torn tendons in wrist. Yeah losing hand(s) if really going to affect an DE. At end of the day he isn’t going anywhere because there is zero savings in cap to do it, and the organizational depth at this position lacking it doesn’t make any sense to move on from one of our most productive rushers over the year. What is concerning, again could be the INJ is the regression by the numbers. Jerry Hughes – 23 tackles (worst as a Bill), 14 solo (worst as a Bill), TFL 6 (worst as a Bill), 9 QB Hits (worst as a Bill), 4.5 sacks (second worse year as a Bill – worst was 4.0), 67% snaps Trent Murphy, ahhh what to do with him, I have watched him make splash plays, then I have seen him set the edge against the run. Then I also watched entire series where he looks completely lost. However, he did play a full 16 games. Looking at his numbers he performed about where he always has before the knee issue. So, with that and his cap hit of 8.9M, I think he is right in that spot where he should be valued money wise. Like I said he can set the edge with the best of them and offers pass rush from the base end. He is roughly Shaq Lawson just 3 years older. Murphy by the numbers I am also going to post his best year 2016 as a comparison because I think people will be a little surprised by them. Trent Murphy – 36 tackles, 24 solo, 9 TFL, 9 QB hits, 5.0 sacks, 67% Snaps 2016 numbers – 47 tackles, 29 solo, 10 TFL, 25 QB hits, 9 sacks (not as heavy of a rotation as we do here). What is interesting is he played at about his level he has always played at (minus the QB stuff). But I also think that has a lot to do with who was on the other side of him as well. There could be an argument Made that Hughes was the worst DE on the roster (out of the top 3). Darryl Johnson looked like a rookie, he flashed as times, but was really overwhelmed and outmatched when he was on the field. To be expected by a 7th round rookie. However, he did flash on plays and makes me want to see how his development progresses, but I am not holding hope he will break out in 2020 to lock a spot down. Like WR the organizational depth is BAD. Especially if they let Shaq Lawson walk. I must look at the off-season if I was in charge that Hughes play is regression in order to get the key players and the organizational depth addressed. Possible Trade TGTs (hard to gauge until after SB) Kerrigans name has been floated out there. UFAs Possible Tier 1 Yannick Ngakoue Matthew Judon Jadeveon Clowney Arik Armstead Tier 2 Robert Quinn – downgraded due to age Vic Beasley Emmanuel Ogbah Jason Pierre-Paul Everson Griffen – Club Option Draft Tier 1 (1st and 2nd round grades) Chase Young (Ohio State) AJ Epenesa (Iowa) Yetur Gross – Matos (Penn State) Curtis Weaver (Boise State) Anfernee Jennings (Alabama) Julian Okwara (ND) Tier 2 (3rd-5th round) Terrell Lewis (Alabama) Jonathan Greenard (Florida) Bradlee Anae (Utah) Alex Highsmith (Charoltte) Darrell Taylor (Tenn) Kenny Willekes (Michigan St) K’Lavon Chaisson (LSU) – will likely climb, but this was as an edge initial ranking by me (he will be a tier 1 LBer) Jabari Zuniga (Florida) Khalid Kareem (ND) Tier 3 (6th – Priority UFA) Tevon Hill (Miami) Oluwole Betiku (Illinois) Alton Robinson (Syracuse) Delontae Scott (SMU) Jonathan Garvin (Miami) Jessie Lemonier (Liberty) DJ Wonnum (South Carolina) Tipa Galeai (Utah State) William Bradley-King (Arkansas St) Kendall Coleman (Syracuse) Final thinking in this Position group for me would be: Before I get into what I would do right now, is how I look at these are JUST position groups only. I know I talked about Signing Hooper and Conklin etc in my other breakdowns and I know we won’t sign them all and put us right into a cap issue. I will come up with a complete UFA thread of what I would do after the Franchise Tag deadline has passed. These help me though figure out priorities and plans so after the Tag Deadline I can than look at what I would do in UFA. This position group needs work with little young depth and the possible regression from Jerry Hughes. I do think this position will be highly targeted in UFA. Now will it be a Tier 1 player or because of the rotation that we play (could it also be because we have no real stud at DE), a Tier 2 type player? However, it sure looks when looking at the yearly snap counts, they don’t rotate the DEs as much as they do DTs. It will be interesting to watch what Beane does here (similar to how it will be interesting to watch how they address WR). I think they way I would address it would be to sign one (a legit one) and then draft one, to start getting younger in the position and develop into the position to make future years re-signing decisions easier. I think the reason people are thinking Shaq needs to be re-signed is he is the youngest player in the position (minus Johnson). But in this group, I would sign Yannick Ngakoue, going to likely be a 5-year 93M with 50M gtd, 18.6M AVV the little bit cheaper option would be an Arik Armstead, will come in likely 13M AVV. I then would go into the draft and take a Alex Highsmith in round 3 or 4th round to get that younger player in the depth as well. This is a position group I would target in UFA for my immediate upgrade, the depth in UFA right now is very good, and to be honest I think this draft class is weak. Plus, I am going into this off-season all about the Offense in the draft early to get some young weapons that can grow with Josh.

Very smart especially when you have out there in public now at least two players have been in their heads. Hauschka and Allen (with his jitters early in games)

I want an upgrade at the position so bad. Go get Hunter Henry or Austin Hooper.

the draft grades on all these are my initial grades. I am sure some can go up and some can go down as I dig into them some more now that I am in full offseason mode

yes this team needs a WR and really a TE get two legit players in those positions and watch how potent the offense becomes. did we forget how many years we played top end defense and had an league leading running game and never made the playoffs? we have a great RB. What we don’t have is those dominant pass catchers.

NY. Oooo no color me called out for a mistake ?

Yeah it is. One more score. It would be 40.

I also need weapons. Go get them Beane

The Run and Play Defense crowd just loving Tenn right now. They need their White Buffalo. The 2007 Ravens is too far removed. I only bet on Bills message Boards about Bills stuff. I will be placing my Bet on the chiefs at the sports book

Nope don’t bet on non Bills stuff Ok no Prob.

Go look at their game already this year. And mind you that is with Mahomes playing with an INj

Yet they nearly hung 40 on that great Tenn defense once already this year.

They will hang another 40

Keep getting weapons on offense.

No he thinks it is good

I long for an Offense like the chiefs.

Also led the league in Touch Backs. if keeping Bojo on the roster keeps McD going for it on 4th. I am all for it

Man I long for a KC Chiefs offense.

And a dominant offense just taking over this game.

Well it is Flores Defense. So he is going to likely install his own defense in Washington.