Nihilarian

What the Patriots did with Gronk was add a different dimension to an already top passing offense! They found that the LBers couldn't keep up with him on routes and DBs had a difficult time tackling him. A great TE like Gronk can do things a TE can do, he can do things a WR does and he can do things an offensive lineman can do. The guy is like an OT with WR speed and hands that catch everything. We see that TJ Hockenson is already a great blocker by taking on DE's and then pushes them around for 10 yards. We see that Hock is already a great pass catcher in that he has dropped only two passes in two seasons. This last stat alone would make him invaluable to a second year, deep throwing QB. We already see that Hock has the ability to find openings in zones. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hTrLwZRhhBg To that last sentence, many, many NFL teams are looking at trying to find a Gronk of their own. At this point, I doubt the Bills @9 even get a shot at Hock as the Lions @8 tried to trade for Gronk last year. That is if he gets by the Jags @ 7.

From Joe B, "And in Hockenson, they are getting a player that has the potential to make an instant impact. Spending a first-round selection on a tight end used to be a bit of a non-starter for NFL teams, but it's hard to ignore how advanced Hockenson is in a couple of areas. His blocking ability is far superior to any of the 'receiving' tight ends available in this draft, which turns him into a three-down player early in his career. As a receiver, Hockenson shows poise and technique in his route-running, along with an understanding of where to find the space -- and not to mention, the athleticism to make teams pay for losing track of him. I love Hockenson as a prospect, and for Brian Daboll's offensive scheme, I think he's a perfect fit and could quickly become the best tight end in the division now that Rob Gronkowski has retired." https://www.wkbw.com/sports/bills/joe-b-2019-nfl-mock-draft-no-6

Great read, thanks for posting.

Hughes is so disruptive I'd hate to see him go, same with Lorax. My take is the Bills will draft a pass rusher @#9 for sure.

I find it humorous that some Bills fans don't like the idea of a TE with the first pick at #9. I think the same could be said for drafting an offensive guard at that position too. What's great is we Bills fans have absolutely no say in who gets drafted and that is a good thing otherwise the Bills would have given up the farm to move up to the #2 spot last year to draft Josh Rosen. Like when the Bills drafted Josh Allen, Bills fans should be prepared to get behind the pick should the Bills draft TJ Hockenson! Or a LT and (god forbid) move him to offensive guard at #9. Personally, I think the Bills will do their best to find a pass rusher with that #9 pick. Could be DK Metcalf as the Bills did have interest in trading for Antonio Brown. Could be a DT. Or they could trade back and get more than one of those needs. Whoever it is, I'll get behind it.

Historic Success Chart The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters: 1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%) 2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%) 3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%) 4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%) 5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%) 6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%) 7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%) https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round If you want a safe first round pick, OL (83%), LB (70%) and TE (67%) have the lowest "bust" rates. TEs have a pretty reasonable chance of turning out in most rounds.

Aside from the fact that Josh Allen was a rookie last season and injured for 5 games. The 2018 Buffalo Bills threw deep more often than any other NFL team (percentage wise) and part of the problem was that the Bills were so bad on offense was the drop percentage by Bills receivers! Between Zay Jones and Kelvin Benjamin they missed on 85 targets. While new receiver John Brown 43.3 catch% and Zay Jones 54.9 catch%, Robert Foster 61.4 catch% will stretch defenses and you have McCoy 73.9 catch%, Beasley 74.7 catch% for the underneath to mid range stuff. The Bills don't have a reliable tight end like Gronk, Ertz, Kelce that will help a young QB further develop and catch those mid to deep passes. Sure, Beasley and Shady will help in the short pass game but when the team goes for a two tight end look and the defense thinks "stop the run" now you have a TE that can slip a block and make a play. A position that can block DE's, can outrun LBers and be difficult for DB's to tackle on an elite level has been a position of need for the Buffalo Bills in forever. Charles Clay was supposed to be that player....21 receptions for 184 yards with a 58.3 catch% last season. Dunno about you, but I would love to have a TE in Buffalo who only dropped two passes the last two seasons and who could be the go to guy in a pass heavy offense.

If you read about OJ Howard you would have seen that many thought he was "underutilized" at Alabama! So what a lot of scouts saw was what they thought/ projected he could do in the NFL. First off, as a rookie OJ went to an NFL offense that was ranked 18 in points, 9th in yards with a troubled QB throwing that went 3-10 in 2017. Not only that, OJ Howard has ended up on injured reserve in his two seasons in the NFL 14 game starts in 2017, 8 game starts in 2018. Kind of difficult to properly evaluate a player when has been seriously injured in his only two seasons. Not every NFL player realizes their potential as TE Eric Ebron also fell on his face in Detroit until he went to Indy and has Andrew Luck throwing his way last season. Different scheme? Anyway, I never banged the table for OJ Howard and I get the comparison that when fans see a draft failure they think it will apply to the next guy at that position. There is also a steep learning curve for tight ends in the NFL and sometimes it takes time. Watch the college game film on both players and you will see for yourself the difference between the two players. Hock is an unreal blocker and only two dropped passes in two seasons! Jeez, could the Bills use a receiver that catches nearly everything thrown his way? All I saw last season in Buffalo was drop after drop by most Bills receivers. Yes, I'm a fan and I like Hockenson just like i liked Josh Allen last season when so many Bills fans were discrediting him like they are with Hock. The difference is that while the Bills could really use a Gronkowski type TE, they could also use a #1 WR, a star LT, a DT, a pass rusher. This year isn't like last season where they were looking for the face of the franchise QB.

The Buffalo Bills went out and drafted their franchise QB before the offensive line was worth a damn! My lord that 2018 Buffalo Bills O line was one of the worst the last two decades! Then, they only had one good player on that line out of five and his play went south due to such inferior talent next to him. Ever hear the phrase, "you strike while the fire is hot"? The Bills did that last year with the QB because the Bills FO saw their future franchise QB in a very rich QB draft. The prospects this year pale in comparison. This year the draft looks to have a "Tony Gonzalez" type TE. Now, top tight ends aren't usually considered first round material...unless of course the scouts grade them as such! Gonzalez was was graded as a first round pick back in 1997 and KC decided to trade from #18 to #13 and draft him. This year the draft has a possible three tight ends graded in the first round, TJ Hockenson, Irv Smith and Noah Fant. The thing is, Hock isn't just graded as a first rounder! He has been graded as a top 10 pick by the majority of the media/ex-scouts. Look at the people grading this player, Gil Brandt, Has Hock as the 6th best player in the draft. Todd McShay has Hock going #7 to the Jags. Ex-scout for several NFL teams Daniel Jeremiah compares Iowa TE T.J. Hockenson to former TV broadcaster Jason Witten and a top 10 pick. Ex-Buffalo Bill, ex-NFL scout NFL.com Analyst Bucky Brooks lists Iowa TE T.J. Hockenson is one of the "gold jacket" prospects in the 2019 NFL Draft class. A top ten pick. Walter Football's Charlie Campbell compares Iowa TE T.J. Hockenson to Philadelphia Eagles TE Zack Ertz. The Athletic's Dane Brugler believes Iowa TE T.J. Hockenson has a "complete skill set." Mel Kiper sent Iowa tight end T.J. Hockenson to the Lions at No. 8 overall I could go on and on with the scouts. The point here is that not many tight ends have ever been graded this high...ever! for several reasons. Like Josh Allen and watching him play at Wyoming, it was like watching a eighth graders playing against a senior. Hock was the same way. TJ Hockenson doesn't just block people, he "rag dolls" them! He pancakes them! He is an elite blocker. Hock doesn't just "catch" footballs...he catches everything! In his two seasons at Iowa he dropped only two passes. Last season he dropped one out of 49 passes. Some of you can go on and on whining about no tight end is first round worthy... and yet there is an exception to everything. I can recall before last years draft 98% of this board hated the idea of drafting Josh Allen and most wanted Josh Rosen. So much so that I kept reading that the Bills FO should give up the farm in 2018 (meaning the majority of the early draft picks) to trade up with the NY Giants at #2 and ahead of the Jets at #3 to draft Josh Rosen. Some even wanted to give up this years first rounder too. Just goes to show...

That article is irrelevant as most of the teams with top tight ends are also top offensive teams. Now all NFL teams are looking to find one of those top tight ends for their offense. Zack Ertz Eagles 116 receptions, the #2 receiver in 2018, playoffs! Travis Kelce 103 receptions Kansas City, playoffs Gronk, Patriots, playoffs, super bowl winners George Kittle, SF, 88 receptions for 1377 yards Austin Hooper, Falcons 71 receptions Jared Cook, Raiders, 68 receptions Eric Ebron, Colts, 66 receptions, playoffs Teams have discovered what the Patriots have known for years about having a top pass catching TE. What happened in the past is in the past. I see three tight ends going in the first round this year. Hock, Noah Fant and Irv Smith.

Great to hear as the Chiefs overpaid for Clark and I was hoping the Bills would go in a different direction.

I agree. From the cover 1 link I posted, https://www.cover1.net/buffalo-bills-2019-nfl-draft-first-round-pick-predictions/2/ "Drafting Hockenson would give Josh Allen another weapon, one that closely resembles another tight end that offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has coached in Rob Gronkowski. The junior tight end has the ability to be a factor in the run and pass game, which Beane and the staff will love. He’s a big, athletic player who can create holes at the point of attack or be a threat down the seam like Gronk was. He is as reliable as they come as a receiver, only dropping two passes his entire career, and Allen could use that type of crutch early in his career. Beane and McDermott saw firsthand what an all-around tight end can do for a young QB; they had Cam Newton paired with Greg Olsen in Carolina. More importantly, Hockenson possesses the grit and “DNA” this regime loves. While most, including me, believe taking a tight end in the top ten is typically a mistake, Hockenson’s value to this team will help their young quarterback and could take Daboll’s offense to new heights." Josh Allen threw deep more then any other NFL QB past season (percentage wise) and while John Brown caught 43.3 percent of his passes while in Baltimore last year (97 targets, 42 receptions) Zay Jones had a 54.9 catch percentage, Robert Foster had a 61.4 catch percentage. I would love to see a receiver like Hock that only dropped two passes his entire college career in a Bills uni ...being that threat for Buffalo that drives defensive coordinators insane like Gronk used to do.

I'm not here to force my will on anyone as I just want to point out some observations. Just like I did last year pre draft with Josh Allen...as most fans here hated that choice. One of the things that bothered me the most about the Bills last season was the top two Buffalo Bills receiving targets who had the dropsies all season. I couldn't figure out why either one of these two players were constantly targeted. 2018 Buffalo Bills leading receiver target, yards wise, Zay Jones 102 pass targets, 56 receptions for a 54.9 catch percentage. Yikes! Second in targets was Kelvin Benjamin, 62 targets, 23 receptions for a 37.1 catch percentage. 85 passes, really? Then you look at TJ Hockenson who dropped a total of only two passes his entire two year career at Iowa. https://www.cover1.net/buffalo-bills-2019-nfl-draft-first-round-pick-predictions/2/ That article from another thread gives some insight into who the Buffalo Bills could be looking at @ #9. Chris Trapasso calls Hockenson a destroyer of worlds, https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2019-nfl-draft-iowas-t-j-hockenson-is-destroyer-of-worlds-as-a-blocker-dynamic-pass-catcher/ NFL.com Analyst Bucky Brooks lists Iowa TE T.J. Hockenson is one of the "gold jacket" prospects in the 2019 NFL Draft class. https://www.rotoworld.com/college-football/nfl-draft/player/39502/tj-hockenson Another thing, I wouldn't be surprised if Hock is gone before #9 to the Jags or Lions. I also wouldn't be surprised if the Patriots attempt to trade up to draft the kid.

Good stuff, thanks for posting!

I think Bills fans just don't get how a tight end can be graded so highly by so many as just about every site I look at has Hock as a top ten prospect and most have him in the top six. The reason for this high grade is because he doesn't just block people...he pancakes them or treats them like rag dolls. He is an elite blocker! Just like what made Josh Allen stand out so much was because it was like watching a man play against boys or like a eighth graders playing against a senior. Then, the kid catches everything thrown his way...as he dropped only one pass out of 49. This alone would would make him special in Buffalo as Clay only caught 58% of the passes thrown his way. Just to give a comparison his teammate at Iowa, Noah Fant dropped 15%. Like Hockenson, Gronk was graded as the best TE in the draft. However, even if he had no red flags due to injury he wouldn't have graded as a top ten pick. Those red flags were considerable as he he missed three games in 2008 due to back problems and missed the entire 2009 season due to back surgery. Some teams didn't even have him on their boards due to durability concerns. The Patriots also hedged their bets by drafting Aaron Hernandez in the same draft and his issues were failing up to five drug tests at Florida. He wasn't considered a generational talent at his position like some think TJ Hockenson is... https://www.milehighreport.com/2019/3/25/18278845/2019-nfl-scouting-report-tj-hockenson

I think he had them mixed up. Fant is faster in the 40 with a 4.50 and Hock is a 4.70 and the latter is much more physical because is so much the better blocker. He is being refereed to by scouts at NFL.com as a world destroyer and another stated he will be gold jacket worthy. Hock 6'5'' 251 Fant 6'4'' 249 The biggest difference is that Hock has a 6.35 grade which lists him as the 5th best overall player in this years draft and Fant is graded at #38 just behind Irv Smith. Gronk went in the 2nd round due to back problems as he missed the entire 2009 season due to back surgery and yet still entered the draft. TJ Hockenson is graded much, much higher then Gronk who was considered a late first round, second round pick.

If you look at some of the top tight ends in the league and if teams could have a do-over to draft with guys like 49ers TE George Kittle, who was a 5th round pick from Iowa in 2017. Last year, 136 targets 88 receptions for 1377 yards, 5 TDs. Anyone think he would last until round 5 if redrafted now? The thing is Kittle played injured for 797 of those yards with a rib injury and he wore two rib protectors and still played. The way teams are now utilizing the TE in the passing game like Zach Ertz 116 receptions in 2018, Travis Kelce 103 receptions in 2018, George Kittle 88 receptions in 2018. I think teams are now putting more importance on the position. I think Hock, Irv Smith and Noah Fant will be drafted a lot earlier then people think as I see all three as first round picks. Times are a changing.

Okay, so say LG and OC are set. That still leaves question marks at RG, RT and Dawkins had a down year last season. The run game and O line protection should be the #1 priority this year. Did they fix it so they have no weakness? Anyway, If you go by NFL.com grades there are 4 WRs with a 6.0 or better, need. 6 O-linemen with 6.0 or better, need. 11 D linemen with a 6.0 or better, need. 2 Lbers, with a 6.0 or better. 2 CBs with a 6.0 or better. 1 safety with a 6.0 or better. two QBs with a 6.0 or better. ONE TE, need with a grade of 6.35 which puts him as 5th best player in the draft!

I still believe the best thing that can happen for the defense this year is to build a power run game (by the RBs) and strong passing game that can sustain drives and score. Last years offense went three and out so often it caused several blowouts and special teams was also a clear problem. The Bills average drive start was at the 10 yard line. What I see in free agency this year is six offensive line additions and the only really solid starter is center Mitch Morse and the rest are all maybes. OT might still be a need, TE is a need, WR is a need. DT and pass rusher are also needs. Talking about needing elite players on defense. Excuse me but the Bills already have an elite DBs as they were the #1 team in the NFL in pass defense in 2018. The only solid elite players on offense are...

It will probably take more than those two upping their game. I was hoping for more offense on draft day and now I'm wondering if that defense is going to get run over. The Bills shut down Tom Brady in that week 16 game and then got killed in the run game. Brady went 13 of 25 for 125 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs which was abysmal for the GOAT. However, their run game went 47 rushes for 273 yards, 2 TDs. ToP was 35:38 NE to Bills 24:22. Bills fans might be thinking that the Jets, Giants, Titans might be easy wins but they forget how good the RB's are on those teams. Le'Veon Bell, Saquan Barkley, Derrick Henry plua the Patriots in those first five games and unless the Bills fix their run defense it could be a 1-4 start.

I'm not bummed, but it's like the schedule makers were looking for an easy win for Dallas on a day that they generally don't lose on. Think of it this way, should Buffalo beat Dallas that should wake up the world that the Bills are no longer AFC doormats. So much will depend on a few things. Who the Bills draft and if they will have an impact. Also, if Daboll can build a good run game attack with the RB's as this will help the Bills defense out so much if the offense can sustain drives and score. If Daboll can fix the passing game to go from 30th to say perhaps 15th which would be a huge improvement. The Bills secondary was already upgraded with the addition of EJ Gains so the areas of need are run stopping and pass rush. The Jests with Bell, the Ginats with Barkley. the Titsns with Henry. The Bills will really need to improve in run stopping or it could be a long season.

I tend to disagree with the bolded. When you have a really good receiving TE, he helps out the younger QBs immensely in that when the OC puts the TE in certain formations the defense has to reveal itself. To man or zone coverage and if the safety is here or there it will tell the QB which kind of man or which kind of zone so now the QB knows the defensive coverage before the ball is snapped. A good TE that can win outside as a receiver has become a very valuable chess piece in the better offenses as you can move him around the formation to get the look you want. Then if the Bills go two tight ends that can give a run look to the offense because this makes the defense gear up to stop the run. That receiving TE slips a block and he is open. If I'm not mistaken Bills OC Brian Daboll was the Patriots TE coach for a number of years and he should be pounding the table for TJ Hockenson as this kid doesn't need much development and should make an instant impact and be an instant starter. TJ might be getting a lot of hype from the media...because he deserves it The positional value hasn't been great in Buffalo over the years because they haven't had top NFL offensive coordinators who would even know how build a top passing scheme or to utilize a top tight end. The list of bums and nobody's in that offensive coordinator position in Buffalo has been astoundingly bad going back to after 2003 with Kevin Gilbride. Greg Roman, Anthony Lynn aside but those gentlemen were more suited to building a power run game.

None of those players were ranked top 10 picks. Like i said in an earlier post in this thread, the 2014 Buffalo Bills had the #4 overall defense and were #1 in sacks, pass rush, QB hurries. They didn't even make the playoffs that season. The few things the Buffalo Bills haven't done in two decades is build a dominant offensive line and and find a franchise QB. This GM might have found the QB and started building the line. The one thing they have never had is an elite tight end like a Gronk, an Ertz, a Kelce.

Like Gronkowski does for New England, that Tight End gave their already top passing offensive a new dimension that few teams could cover. Buffalo has never really had a player like that who could open up the middle of the field and make nightmare match ups for the linebackers to cover and also be a nightmare for the the smaller DBs attempting to tackle him. A really good TE gives the QB another option in not only the pass game but also in the run game with his blocking. This kid "ragdolls" DEs and LBers. Catches... everything... thrown... his... way! This in itself would give the Bills something they haven't had in forever.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2019-nfl-draft-iowas-t-j-hockenson-is-destroyer-of-worlds-as-a-blocker-dynamic-pass-catcher/ 2019 NFL Draft: Iowa's T.J. Hockenson is destroyer of worlds as a blocker, dynamic pass-catcher by Chris Trapasso NFL.com Analyst Bucky Brooks lists Iowa TE T.J. Hockenson is one of the "gold jacket" prospects in the 2019 NFL Draft class. https://www.rotoworld.com/college-football/nfl-draft/player/39502/tj-hockenson Brooks compares Hockenson to Jason Witten.