KingRex

Very well handled by the Bills FO for what they want to contractually! However, all this fan knows is what I see on the field and what I saw was: 1. Showed great stuff and really surprised at how he always looked for pass while avoiding the rush. Clearly an explosive talent who is tough to defend against and prepare for. Not a big guy though and needs a solid back-up. 2. EJ- disappointing 1st 2 years but says more about stupid expectations from this project and poor teaching by Marrone. Very nice job on field this pre-season where even with a few clear miscues, he threw the best in-game bomb for a TD this preseason against NC. Had 2 scoring TD passes to win against the Browns in crunch time, and put up maximum possible QB rating against Pitts. TT still beat him out but impressive 3. Cassel earned his tag of Meh with his complete inability to lead the team to a TD. Hit a great percentage of his dump-off passes, but given his history of injury in the past seems completely unreasonable to expect much from him. I really hope I am wrong, but I am counting on: 1. Our D to lead this team 2. Bummed our skill guys were hurt in pre-season but if they carry our young #1 QB and our pedestrian at best re-signed #2 we can have a good year. 3. The ST which showed great improvement last year continues on a positive track.

I would say the evidence of actual game events does not fully support your conclusion that Darby suffers from a lack of ball awareness. In his games against better QBs Newton and RoboQB with Pitts they were able to take advantage of Darby awareness, but both his INTs against lesser QBs with the Browns actually demonstrated very good ball awareness on his part I unfortunately don't save the pre-season tapes so I cannot say for sure in the NC and Pitts case it was better QBs taking advantage of him covering taller WRs (I know one case of poor play by Darby was the tall Benjamin early in the game vs. RoboQB) but I suspect from the quite good ball awareness he showed on a 'tip drill" INT and a coverage INT that Darby can get it done under the right circumstances. Facing Luck and Brady in the first two games I would not be surprised to see you are correct that the Bills rely more on the vets Robey or Graham at CB instead of relying on the rookie against these stud QBs. However, one of the reasons why Darby's (it is to be hoped rookie) performance did not worry me. When the games start, the Bills will play pass D 1. Relying on 2 (and potentially three) vets to cover the starting wides. 2. The major thrust will actually be to hope our DL (even without Dareus) can make it hard to pick on our CBs 3. Ryan is supposed to be a blitz master and I think new and interesting blitzes will be a lead story in D effortws. 4. The Bills will hope that even with his struggles, that Darby will have learned some lessons from his preseason troubles. 5. I would not be surprised to see Darby start, but in the first pass play Ryan/Thurman actually dial up a CB blitz by the speedy Darby and Graham rotates from safety to cover the WR. I think it is the case that we possibly can be beaten by the pass in our first two games but we can easily launch some plays that make it hard for even a stud QB to beat us.

Unfortunately, the most real answer to this question is who knows. How he does is most likely going to depend on other factors which are actually outside of whether Darby is a good enough player. More specifically: 1. The Bills pass rush- Based on past performance this is gonna be Darby's best friend. Particularly challenging is gonna be life w/o Manuel for this first game. Like virtually all CBs and in particular rookies, Darby clearly can be worked on and worked over. however, if our pass rush performs like last year's model with the poorest statistical performance from the DL being Hughes' 2nd year in a row of 10 sacks then Luck will not have the time to breakdown Darby. I think Darby will be helped a lot by this being a home game and intelligent crowd noise is likely to make it harder for Luck to get off smoothly or make changes in the snap count to best pick-on Darby. 2. The ref's calls- Darby had a couple of probs - taller receivers like Panther's Benjamin and making sure he tracks the ball. I think actually both are fixable in that Darby needs to do more press coverage which disrupts a WRs ability to out leap him for jump balls. He also needs to calm down a bit as he showed with his 2 INT game against the Browns that intip drill situations or when he feels in control rather than having to look around a lot he has good ball sense. However, I think the style of the refs calls will do a lot to set the tone. If he gets afraid of pass interference calls he is gonna likely look around a lot and this may be trouble. if the refs let 'em play I feel better about Darby. 3. Indy run game- If the Bills LBs and safeties have to focus more on reinforcing the DL, then Darby will be more on an island as he struggled with in pre-season. However, if our front four holds it own alone or only the LBs are needed freeing up the safeties to dt Indy and allow Darby to press, I think he will be fine. 4. The main thing I think Darby will need to show is a pro athletes short memory if he gets burned. If he second guesses himself he will get picked on. We'll se.

I know of few on TSW or anywhere who are even arguing that EJ deserves the starting slot over TT and thus you are setting up a straw man in claiming there is some mistaken sense that EJ is Steve Young. I don't see anyone claiming TT Is Joe Montana and likewise it is simply foolish to argue that anyone mistakes EJ for Steve Young. The simple truth is that EJ was drafted in the first as a project and remains so after an unfortunate injury ended his rookie year. Before he went down he did not set anyone's hair on fire as the next coming of John Elway, but the simple case is that he did show signs of being a .500 NFL QB. No where near what we wanted, but actually well within the ballpark for an objective observer with even half a football mind. So what explains the public indictment by some in the press and some loud voices on TSW that EJ quite obviously does not have what it takes to even be in the league? It actually says a lot more about the lack of football knowledge and intellect of those offering up this view. Some folks seem to want to hold EJ to a standard as being a franchise QB right out of the draft. He ain't. However, to claim he never will amount to anything because he is a ,500 QB right now is simply silly. Cassel never showed the production to be a #1, and though EJ did throw the bad pass here and there he also through a great scoring bomb against the Panthers (probably the best pass by a QB fer or agin us this preserason) Had 2 scoring passes in crunch time to lead us to a W agin the Browns, and fully dererved his near perfect QB rating agin the Steelers and easily deserved the back-up role.

My sense is also that it is stupid to expect any of the media to be clairvoyant (though if they pretend they are so intelligent or football smart that their word is the be all and end all then all bets are off. If the Schoop character chooses to present himself as brilliant then making a stupid judgment like cassel is the man deserves all kinds of badmouthing. If a beat reporter presents himself as having inside knowledge or insight for the Bills decisions and then they do the exact opposite, then I think it is reasonable to question the quality of their work. We flat out had this in regard to the Bills QB situation.

all I am saying is that with the 20/20 vision of retrospect a smart football brain would have assessed 1. Take Rex at his word that all 3 QBs were candidates for the #1 job with the results to be proven on the field in practice and in games. In addition to this more objective assessment, subjectively it was clear that Ryan had great hopes for TT (but these hopes had yet to emerge), Rex had hopes for Cassel as a player proven to lead a team to the playoffs BUT real doubts existed as to whether he was good enuf to be the man (it was clearly Meh's job to take but he had not shown enuf recently to be given the job. Also, EJ was always a hopeful project but these hopes had not been realized due to his inconsistent play. Nevertheless, he clearly was a quality guy, good athlete and though he had disappointed the old regime were clearly idiots so he gets a shot. 2. After initial practices and game 1- No one had taken the job of the 3. Cassel- Has shown he can perform consistently though inadequately. Only remains #1 on depth chart because neither TT nor EJ has taken the job. TT- Showed signs of life after game 1(though little besides he keeps looking to pass when flushed. EJ- Great bomb for a score but occaissional teeth grating misfires. Showed best upside so far Bills reporting and fan chatter- Starting to get excited and but mindlessly keeps hope in Meh despite little objective evidence. Also, mindlessly remains disappointed in EJ. 3. After Game 2 Poor practices have braintrust satisfied Cassel is not the answer but in the absence of EJ and TT neither taking the job or playing themselves of the roster Meh is not an unreasonable plan B. Coaching staff decides to give all 3 a go with starters and EJ earns the first look in game 3 with his two scoring passes to win game 2. Reporters and fans with little football knowledge judge Meh still #1 though he has done little to take the job. Coaches say who cares they have work to do. 4. After Game 3 T-Mobile takes the job. EJ performs outstandingly and wins the #2 job. Meh disappoints so badly (he not only did nothing to take the job but is lucky that bad hands by a Pitts DB didn't cost him a pick 6. A number of reporters and some foolish fans still have Meh as #1 when in reality its only matter of time until he is told don't let the door hit him on the way out. I think it is clear in retrospect that anyone who wants to claim superior analysis or knowledge about the Bills should have seen tis coming. I don't claim perfect knowledge but at least I know what I don't know.

https://en.wikipedia...iki/Matt_Cassel

I don't think its that straightforward. Rex is on record saying that all three QBs would compete on the field for #1. If the salaries were reversed but the on field performance was still Cassel- nice completion % but zero success at passing for a score EJ- Best pass of all the QBs in the first three games with his long TD pass against NC - Clutch performance throwing for 2 scores in the Cleveland win -Highest achievable QB rating against Pitt with 2 pass 2 TDs and led the team to 3 TDs cutting him would have been explainable contractually, but Rex's word would have taken a hit among players. The facts on the ground made the Cassel cut logical. The contract made it a no-brainer. The simple fact is that the reporters who gave Meh an inside track to the #1 job and the fans who threw EJ under the bus when his failed improvement was easily attributable to poor training under Merrone's regime simply proved they have no football brains.

Actually, these reporters don't owe an apology or anything to anybody. However, one of the reasons why anyone with half a brain has no belief in WGR "reporting" is that routinely they say or report stuff which does not have much of a relationship to reality. I don't think there is anything they can do to redeem themselves. Carucci however, as an outside observer, I had some respect for his work. However, whatever "insider" source gave him the "insight" he reported that Cassel had the inside track on the #1 QB slot after TT performed in game like Rex said he wanted and EJ CONTINUED the notably impressive play he showed with the long TD pass in game 1, and with the 2 clutch scoring passes in game 2 simply raises questions about his football intelligence after he declared Cassel the likely starter when the simple fact his the 3 QB performances sealed his cut due to his big contract. Do you trust Carucci the same way after he simply blew it big time on the most watched story of the pre-season. Wawrow also owes nobody nothing, but if its important to him that his work is credible then he simply has some splainin to do, as his reporting seems to run counter to reality. I appreciate his past good insights but I would think this miscue might at least be acknowledged. This seems pretty straightforward to me

Not surprising

In general, I feel OK about the Bills cuts. However, there are a couple that are open to at least question in my mind. I think actually part of the reason we cut below 53 is that we might resign a couple of these guys quicker than folks think # 1- I was an early advocate of a Cassel cut (even while GR and Carucci had given him the #1 QB job) but actually had changed my mind when Rex started talking about keeping 3 QBs and my thinking through Cassel's actual market value. I will not be shocked to see Belicheat sign Cassel. NE is set at QB after the Goodell loss in court. However, he has released his disaster QB so there is a slot open on the roster. It strikes me a pretty consistent with his past actions to sign Cassel because in essence he has the Bills entire playbook in his head and also great knowledge of the Ryan/Roman thinking process. With Brady in hand, the Bills do not scare me if I am Belicheat, but Garapolo as my #2 while OK is not great. I sign Cassel and promise him a chance to compete for #2 but no guarantee. Further, I know I have two games against the Bills and one as soon as week 2 so getting the info I can get from Cassel makes him worth paying. I think though Rex knows this and may have had a heart to heart with Meh saying, I cannot make Pegula pay $4million and not use ya which I am not. However, if you take the cut and void your current deal I will resign you for $2 mill or something. #2- Cut of Meeks who was on the roster last year and leaving us with only Graham at SS (particularly with Darby being OK but questionable as a #1 which might force Graham back to CB is a question for me. 3. Depth issues also raise questions about Richardson cut and paucity across the league of OL players with some pro experience may interest me

I think it actually says the most about WGR whose idiot pundits demonstrated how little they know about both the Bills and football when they declared Cassel still the leading candidate for the #1 QB job AFTER T-Mobile performance that won him the job and EJ Manuel's posting of the maximum possible QB rating against Pitts that won him the #2 job. Until they say something that explains this wrong call and why it will not happen again, they are simply objectively not to be believed. The same is pretty true for Vic Carucci, who while not lowering himself to WGR stupidity by advocating for Meh, still clearly reported wrong opinions which he should at least acknowledge if he wants to maintain credibility as a reporter. Third on the quite reasonably questioned as to how well do you do your job is AP reporter Wawrow. While, I think his past good works he shared on TSW should be acknowledged and praised. His EJ sees the handwriting on the wall does demand some public exploration for these public comments IF he wishes to maintain the credibility he built with this (and I suspect other) TSW readers. Perhaps, his initial reporting was true and EJs pretty darn excellent performance against Pitts changed some Bills braintrust minds. I doubt this because other major true factors at the time of his handwriting report were: 1. EJ actually played notably well the first two pre-season games throwing the best bomb for a TD this season against NC, and then performed well in the next game with a late scoring pass and then led the team to a win with a successful 2 point conversion. It was also true EJ clearly needed some work having misfired on a couple of completions with poor arm accuracy after his great running ability had allowed him to escape a pass rush. However, even acknowledging EJ not being perfect (who is?) also by a good reporter would have stated objectively Cassel simply failed to score in ex-games and had not been so outstandingly better in practice that the handwriting after 2 games was morelikely impressed but not yet convinced by EJ but this compared to Cassel that rather than the #1 QB slot being his job to lose, it was merely set-up well for him to take it, but neither his performance in practice or production in games added up to him not having taken the #1 job yet. Neither, WGR, Carucci, or Wawrow have to do anything because certainly me as an individual or all of us as readers are easily ignored. However, all of these three media outlets I think are also easily ignored by readers unless their work means something to them that they care to account for what they say.

We can now with virtually a week left to a "real" game to turn our attention to practical game stuff. However, until tomorrow there is time for one old philosophical exploration. The Brady case actually reminded me of the age old question of would I trade our 4 SB losses for 1 SB win? I must admit I was disappointed in yesterday's court decision on the Brady case. As a Football fan one should want your team to beat the best at their best. However, a Brady suspension would have really heightened the Bills chances of winning game 2. However, I am a fan of my Buffalo Bills. I long ago got over the concept of getting an "ugly" victory. When it comes to performing in the NFL it pretty much starts with getting Ws. If you don't get Ws you don't make the playoffs. If you don't make the playoffs you can't compete for the SB. I did learn from my growing love for the team in the early 90s when we 4 times in a row lost the SB but I still loved the team that winning the SB is great though far from required, that winning it all is something I insist we aspire to. However, though aspiring to win the SB is necessity, oddly what the Bills have taught me is that actually achieving a win is not the road to some great things for a football. The best moment I have ever had as a sports fan was the day after the loss in our first SB. The day after the phrase "wide right" was forever pressed in my heart and mind. The great moment came when a crowd estimated at least 25,000 and maybe as high as 50,000 with little organizing came together in Niagara Sq. in front of City Hall to welcome our SB team back to Buffalo. I listened on the radio, but felt like I was there with my fellow Bills fan. Sports linked me together with 40 other folks the night before when we all held hands for the Norwood kick. We all moaned in pain when the kick went wide right. Sports linked me together with 10s of thousands who after cheering Kelly, the Big Three, Tasker, and their (our) leader Marv Levy when Scott Norwood, tears in his eyes begged for forgiveness for missing the kick which could have won the game. Together, we gave the message that there was nothing to forgive. Win or lose the important thing was we were all together. This loss set the table for three additional amazing year for me as a fan. Folks often ask the question would you trade four SB losses for one SB win? An interesting question that I think folks legitimately have different answers for. However, as one who believes that a key to the fight of living life is not whether you avoid getting knocked down (its life and whether its a health challenge, getting turned down by a date, not getting the job you wanted, etc) but whether and how you get up! The real question is would I trade the four years of trying to but not winning the SB for the myriad teams who have one SB but like virtual clock work lose any sense of cohesion as players wander off to collect accolades, glory, money and all the women they can eat. Of course I would love to trade 4 losses for four wins. However, if you make me choose between one year of glory until we are replaced or four years of enjoying the shared aspiration to win and then sharing for four years the shared disappointment of losing? Make mine four years of sharing win or lose!!!!

Its actually hard for me to keep track of who said what to whom, but it is becoming clear which opinions offered were basically fact free: 1. Any predictions that there was some huge difference between which QB was a more likely #1. The real results ended up being: A. Tyrod by a nose mostly due to his explosiveness. Its clear that Ryan puts a lot of stock in creating match-up problems for opposing DCs. He demonstrated a strong interest in Harvin because he felt from personal experience he could handle him and because a unit of Watkins/Harvin, or add Woods is hard for opponents to match-up with. He then surprisingly got a chance at McCoy as an RB who fit well with a Roman run early/often O. Overall, the match-up demanded by McCoy is at least 7 and probably 8 in the box as a base. If the D does this they are forced to single the WRs. He then loves TT who really demands a spy and the match-up problems for a DC are huge. Beat reporters who simply ignored Ryan's expressed interests and actions and instead operated from a standpoint that it was Cassel's job to lose simply were bad beat reporters. B. Many loud fans and media hacks led by WGR clearly had turned on EJ and did bad beat reporting by mindlessly presenting Cassel as the it was his job to lose. It was simply foolish beat reporting in that Cassel clearly had a depth chart advantage but it was not his job to los he simply had a slight advantage but STILL needed to win the job. A good beat reporter would have focused on the FACT that while Cassel never made obvious mistakes he NEVER showed anything tangible showings certainly in games (zero TD passes and in fact zero TDs for a Cassel led O in the exhibition games). There was even some beat reporting that EJ could/should read the writing on the wall. In fact, the only real world writing was that Cassel had done nothing tangible to TAKE the #1 job. In fact, the only facts on the ground after two games was TT had shown evidence of his explosiveness and EJ had thrown a beautiful bomb for a TD in game 1 and EJ had thrown for not one but two scoring passes to pull out a win in game 2. Good beat reporting would have pointed out going into game 3 that the FACTs were Cassel had done nothing in either practice or in the exhibition games to TAKE the job that was certainly there for him to TAKE but Ryan never said it was his to lose Good beat reporting after seeing NO QB TAKE the #1 QB job. However, TT had shown enough in practice and in game 1 and 2 that he might TAKE the job with a positive performance. He did that in game 3. As far as EJ, the only writing on the wall was that his performance in games 1 and 2 were good but not good enough. He in FACT led the team to 3 TDs in his brief appearances in game 3. However. as one TD was really good hand-offs but the now cut Fgreddy' legs and vision led to one EJ led TD and the other 2 were to EJs credit, only one came from a great read and good pass by EJ. Good beat reporting now would: 1. Focus on the story that the QB fixation of many fans and media were actually secondary to: A. The role of injuries in hamstringing this O but the fact the O was quite effective without a lot of skill players B. If anything needed good beat reporting it actually would have been more focus on the OL play C. The QB story actually is why were all three QBs in the game but if there is writing on the wall for anyone it is Cassel. Good beat reporting would actually focus on the FACT Ryan says he wants to keep all three and actually a thinking beat reporter would observe that IF the Bills cut any of these three before game 2 week, that Belicheat would quite likely to sign this QB and pump them for a recitation of the Bills playbook and tendencies. Instead, all we have gotten from the Bills reporters are really embarrassingly bad conclusions being thrown out by WGR and Carucci that somehow game 3 performances meant Cassel maintained an inside track for the #1 QB job. I really have not seen much of import or added to fan knowledge from ANY Bills beat reporter this pre-season. If any thing fans who read WGR/Carucci opinions or writing on the wall blathering were made stupider by Bills beat reporting than smarter by insights us outsiders can't see.

The owners can lock the plyrs out if they want, but they will not want to do this because the end result will be they will lose. Why would the NFL lose! Because the players have figured out the last thing the NFL owners want to do is actually compete with each other in a true free market. The owners totally kicked the butt of the NFLPA in the mid-80s lockout. The result was that a bunch of smart NY lawyers approached a small talented tenth of NFL athletes led by Gene Upshaw. The total defeat of the NFLPA in the mid-80s lockout meant the rejection of the traditional AFl/CIO model under then NFLPA head Ed Garvey. The total defeat of the AFL/CIO model gave the smart NY lawyers the leverage to convince Upshaw to convince a bunch of egotistic kid athletes to take the radical step of the NFLPA decertifying itself as a bargaining agent. This move would have had the effect of forcing the owners to actually compete against each other. In America, individuals have a right to enter into fair agreements with each other to offer services and compensate them with payments for services. Individuals may choose to give up fundamental American rights for compensation. However, under American law and tradition fundamental rights can not be taken away from you without your specific agreement as reflected in something like a personal services contract. The NFL team owners ran kicking and screaming away from having to actually compete in a free market. The NFL team owners instead said we can make more money and provide a more profitable product for us as NFL team owners to operate our business under a social contract (embodied in the CBA) than we would make as team owners than we would make operating in a free market system where team owners compete against each other. In the end, today's ruling was one that said individuals still have a right to fair and due process even if team owners and players can make more money operating in an economic system operating under a social contract rather than a free market.

The court ruling says no asterisk for Brady, but the Pats already have accepted a million $ fine and loss of some draft picks for violating the rule as an institution on the issue of trying to gain a competitive advantage by deflating footballs.

According to ESPN, the NFL has already decided they will appeal this ruling to a higher court. However, there are two factors which heavily impact this decision: 1. The finding by Judge Berman for Brady now puts the burden directly on the NFL to not only prove to the appellate court that their agreement in the CBA gives Goodell authority to be the judge, jury, and executioner in these cases even if the NFL is denying due process 2. This is a substantive victory for Brady but NOT for the Pats who already have publicly accepted a million dollar fine and loss of draft picks for allowing game balls to be deflated for competitive advantage.

The remaining question is whether you interpret this as mostly a Goodell loss or mostly a Brady/Pats victory. My sense is that this is in all cases a loss for Goodell (and ironically a win for the NFLPA). As far as the Pats, if you live in Boston or its media market this is a clear vindication of the Pats and Brady. However, for the other 95+% of the rest of folks who care at all, the asterisk behind the Pats record lives. It lives primarily because of videotape gate. In addition, though Brady gets off Scott-free, Kraft and the Pats are on record having accepted a million dollar fine and loss of some draft picks due to the initial NFL ruling finding that the Pats as an institution (the Pats employers who spirited the footballs into a restroom and emerging with all the balls except for the one used for kicks being deflated to below league standards). Brady has been vindicated, but Bellicheat and the Pats have not. The two asterisks live.

Actually, the significance of this analogy to the NFL comes when you add to your analogy that not only is there a link between swimming and drowning, but that the masses gain great entertainment from watching these drownings over and over. further, as part of keeping the masses entertained, we compensate the performers for risking drowning but also refuse to compensate the families of those who get unlucky and drown while entertaining us. It does get macabre at the least and actually pretty sick pretty fast for the viewer in your analogy don't you think?

There are several lessons from Darby's struggles in his first three outings 1. Darby has some definite failings in his play that the coaches will have to cover for and that Darby will need to work on to become a solid vet. These problems are not surprising for a rookie nor fatal if he has good teammates and coaches. Darby cannot be left on an island against a good receiver and a good QB. The coaches will need to have Gilmore and it is to be hoped a recovered McKelvin take on the opponents top 2 WRs. If McKelvin is injured, the Bills will need to use double-teams or if both are hurt move safety Graham back to CB from safety. Darby cannot be counted upon to cover a top WR on an island on his own, but I have no problem having him covering the slot or the opponents #3. 2. This is true because Darby has some positives about his game as seen by his 2 INTS. He can have good ball awareness as shown by some good coverage by him in preseason practice. However, when thrown to the wolves in preseason games. Darby can be covered for as he learns to become a vet, but it is clear that though he was our first choice he is not a 1st round talent. A solid starter quality eventually but not an immediate shut down starter.

This does trod subject matter much discussed in other threads and I am happy to leave to the mods to deal with this appropriately, but I have not heard this specific take and am curious if others hav heard anything. Generally, I have been in the advocate make EJ #1, Taylor #2, cut Cassel and Simms and sign Simms PS as the disaster QB, as this approach represents the my sense of the upsides of these players as Bills. In addition this saves $4 million in cap space from cutting Cassel. However, I am now of the mind that the Bills keep Cassel on their roster (at least until the Sat. before game 2) because if they cut Cassel (or EJ) anytime before we play the Pats, my guess is this QB gets immediately signed by Bill Belecheat. At the very least, this probably pissed at the Bills is sucked for info on the specifics of our plays, the line-ups we use on various plays and also the coaches tendencies at various downs and distances. Particularly if Brady gets suspended and Garaphalo has disappointed at various points this pre-season, we might see the cut QB actually start for the Pats until Brady gets back. The 13 days comes in that it is my understanding under the CBA if a player plays two games his full annual salary counts against the cap. So I think that we keep 3 (at least two games).

A lot of Rex/Roman interest seems to be: 1. Run early and often- Armed with McCoy (one can reasonably wonder about wear and tear on this heavily used RB, but this is Game 1 and the release of Freddy seems to be endorsement of McCoy health) and with an OL that seems to have come together, expect effort and probably productivity which will force Indy into at least 7 and probably 8 in the box. 2. Create mismatches with the WRS- Indy DBs are gonna be on an island. Given Watkins speed, Harvin's explosiveness, and Woods precise route running if Indy zones up, this team is made to present challenges to Indy 3. Special attention should be given to the play reading and coverage skills of Indy's SS and their Sam LB as these are the players most likely to need to read and cover Clay and handfight this big boy in coverage. Plan c is definitely a good one for the Bills if they do not run, but Taylor sees no clear read for his WRs. 4. Plan D is the Tyrod improvise. He now either simply moves and read option for coverage breakdowns or run and if he makes the spy miss, he goes as far as he can. My prediction? Pain (for Indy's D)

One thing I'd love to see predictors take into account is that one variable which math wizards have been able to quantify is that home team advantage is a real thing. Home teams get a roughly three point advantage versus how the teams stack up on paper in terms of the quality of their rosters. I think it is actually easy to see how home cooking provides an advantage through aspects like: 1. Crowd noise- an intelligent crowd knows to make noise and make it difficult for opponents to audible during key times or even to keep quiet and listen to their QB call signals at home. knowledgable crowds will even spontaneously seem to give false countdown of time left on the gameclocks to fool the other team. I have not only seen this done at the Ralph, but even in cases where the crowd is too excited to do it right, we routinely see the home crowd quiet down when their QB tells them to quiet down or be whipped into an even louder frenzy by their D. 2. Psychology- Its harder to quantify and predict, but playing at home gives a seemingly clear advantage from sleeping at home, familiarity with field conditions and local wind patterns to simply not having to fly cross country and deal with baggage logistics, time zone shifts, and not having the family around so time to party on the road. 3. Simply getting stoked up by cheers and not being oppressed by catcalls. My sense is that one big advantage the Bills will have over Indy (and NE as well if they are led by Garafalo rather than Brady) is that they will beat home. It may well be a game that is a shootout which tends toward offensive output. However, I will not be shocked if the game is actually one of great Bills production offensively, but Indy and Luck get stymied by the additional factor of homecooking leading to some big plays by the Bills D early in the game (for example if crowd noise leads to a missed blocking pick-up on a blitz and Luck gets pancaked by Mario. We'll see!

If they choose Tyrod, the main thing I hope is that they do not tell anybody. This means Jay Glazer, you, and me, because most of all it makes it easier to win against Indy who would be forced to prepare for the different games presented by Cassel, EJ and Tyrod. The important thing here is to lie to Glazer, you and me in order to make it difficult for the opponents.

I think the real news here is that after Rex said any number of times and in any number of ways that performance on the field would determine who is number 1. Does anyone want to seriously argue that there is not a marked difference in the on field production of EJ and TT over MC's production? Yes, MC did not have any huge negative plays, but a decision by the HC to GIVE the job to MC when EJ and TT made virtually the best positive cases they could make on the field is the case. Giving the job to MC would clearly demonstrate the way to get the starter job is NOT to wrack up a virtual perfect QB rating as EJ did or score points as TT did but instead suck up to the braintrust and the media.