TPS

I would think that since most market participants know that the market has historically performed better under democratic administrations than republicans, long term money will stay. In addition, the majority of stocks are held by institutions that don't pay capital gains taxes. Find another dead horse to beat...

Wonder how those "poor schmucks" are feeling today...

I hope everyone at RWS raises a glass to the late Bill Walsh and thank him for calling Marv and recommending that he draft Trent Edwards. On this date the Bills play the 49ers, and it's Walsh's birthday... How appropriate.

So your business is recession-proof? No impact on your sales lately? Where are you geographically located, and what industry? Just curious.

The hits just keep coming for the GOP... More voter fraud

Interesting coincidence that you posted that? he's bowing out of the market. For all of you who jumped on the Buffet attempt to get people back in the market, buyer beware... Lahde da...

voter purge

The run up in prices coincides precisely when HFs and IBs started pouring billions into futures. Their "anslysts" were yapping up the probablility of $200 prices to get more suckers in. As I said last June/July, we'd probably see it unwind within 6 months, and one of the reasons I gave was because Americans would adjust behavior based upon $4/gal gas. Now a recession. Demand is playing a role, but I believe that it was speculation that drove 50-60% of the price increase; you disagree. It's not like you haven't been wrong lately... Btw, just finished a conversation with a friend who manages a HF, and he told me about a very recent conference call with other managers, and one of the things they talked about was "unwinding their oil positions..."

Pop goes the speculative oil bubble!

It's defined by the number of employees--500 or less.

I am sure they learned from the previous administration... Ohio 2004

You ain't kiddin'. The country can't take another 8 years of their policies...

No one knows what the cost of the payout will be for sure. The "big fellas" now have access to the Fed, so they'll be fine. It's the HFs and insurance companies that may go under from this. It's my understanding that the obligations must be paid October 21.

Haven't you guys figured out that total federal revenues include SS taxes? The government doesn't keep it in a lock box, it uses it like general revenue. But, hey, we all know that you guys are the party that wants to foment class warfare... Btw, since the last update of that graph was 9/21, it doesn't include the bailout.

I thought you were going to say, "is also a Goldman Sachs hack..."

I'd agree. While the Lehman CDS settled Friday, the payouts will occur over the next several weeks. Anyone who has access to the Fed shouldn't have a problem, so watch out for a few hedge funds and insurance companies.

Oil is down for several reasons. Here's my list: - $4/gal gas changed habits and reduced demand. - the slowing US economy has reduced demand, and now a slowing global economy. - The acceleration of the financial crisis had speculators (IBs and HFs) unwinding their positions in a scramble to increase capital. - And, one of the strategies used by speculators was to go long on oil and short on the $, so that any fall in the $ was an impetus to take more long positions in oil (the argument made was that the $ would fall on increased inflation, and oil was the hedge). The financial crisis has caused a "flight to the $", so the $ strengthening has reversed the effect. Once we get passed this crisis, speculators in commodity futures need to be reined in. Not saying speculators need to be eliminated, rather like the regulated exchanges, there need to be limits on the quantity of contracts they can buy. If HFs and others want to "invest" in commodities, they should purchase the stock of such firms, not try to use the futures markets as a short-term profit machine.

Good point. Are the IBs raising the margin requirements to generate more capital for themselves for fear of their own demise, or to protect against the demise of the HFs? Ironically, their behavior may bring about what they are trying to protect against--the failure of both parties!

Here's an interesting bit of news on what may be driving some of the selling: margin calls If so, it's not just panic herd mentality driving this.

I would say absolutely to this if you mean by "empire" the US will no longer try to be the world's cop and unilaterally push policies on the rest of the world too. We can't afford $650 billion defense budgets in order to support an empire. As SNation pointed out, we have an economy that was essentially propped up by non-real factors--finance and real estate (with the healthcare industry as the only other main driver of jobs). Throw in the anger being created in the political arena, and it makes for some difficult times indeed. Will this create an opportunity for US? Is it possible for US to refocus the economic model from unlimited consumption desires (toys) to sustainable growth? I can imagine a world where the US takes the lead on alternative energy development, building liveable cities, spending more on research to cure cancer than to create wmds, etc. But I don't see the leadership, nor am I certain that a majority of the American people would support this type of change. Which raises an interesting question: for the most part, like the US itself, there is a sharp divide between the right and left here at PPP; is it possible to come up with a set of economic development goals that the majority of us here would support? Then, could the American people actually effectuate change? I think the bailout bill showed it's possible to get people riled up enough to get involved, but I don't know if an economic plan could be crafted that would motivate people to do so. Ok, time to get a beer and stop my idealistic thoughts...

I certainly am not going to attack one of Bill the Cat's supporters!!

And which politician are you talking about?

This is essentially what Spitzer said in his editorial in Washington Post last March (?).

As I said, Paulson should be keel-hauled, especially if he let his bias influence the decision.

The world markets tanked last night and the futures are indicating another blood bath today. Articles/blogs I've been reading this week suggest much of the turmoil has been due to the anxiety over today's settlement of Lehman's cds contracts. One estimate shows the sellers of the insurance might have to payout $400 billion, and many of the sellers were banks. It's been argued that the reason the interbank loan market has frozen is due to 1) banks are hoarding their cash to meet their obligations; and 2) no one knows who the losers will be, and the losers might be taken down because of this. There are two scenarios: one, the settlement goes well, the obligations are less than expected, and no one is taken down--the markets would react positively; two, the opposite, and all hell breaks loose. I'm going to be at a bar with some scotch and beer as the market closes....