TPS

It's obvious for those on the other side who knew this all along. I suppose Hedd is trying to educate the sycophants, which by definition is impossible.

It's good to see that you understand that inflation will only come about when banks start making loans to those who purchase goods, services, property, etc. I do not doubt that there will be some inflation when times are better--Hell, we've averaged about 3-4% inflation for about the past 30 years. If that is what you mean by inflation, then I can't disagree. However, inflationary pressures will not arise until the economy rebounds enough to create resource constraints--mainly labor (wages costs) and raw materials, because prices are set by firms, not the money supply. (I think) One area where we disagree is how the FED will react when times are better. If inflation starts to go above the FED's target, they will raise interest rates to dampen loan demand--this is how the FED has always tried to regulate the economy, via interest rates. The debate: will the FED raise its inflation target above 2-3% and allow the economy to grow with slightly higher inflation? Probably a little (5% target?), but not to what people fear. Another area where we disagree: yes, the FED has monetized some of the debt, but I argue it CAN DO SO when resources are slack. We disagree on this because we disagree on our definition of inflation. I believe inflation is caused by real factors; that is, competition and demand for real resources. When unemployment is high, factory utilization is low, and private sector demand is low, the FED can finance government spending without an impact on inflation. Of course, as the economy recovers and moves toward full employment it would be inflationary (but then it won't need to do it). As for the dollar's declining international status, I wrote about this five years ago. The current situation is simply more fuel for its long term decline as internation reserve currency. Btw, a very bold prediction by Buffett: "the dollar will be worth less 10-20 years from now..." Wow!

First, what is your definition of money? Given that definition, explain how money is created? The formal defintion is M1 which is essentially demand deposits plus cash in circulation (outside of the banking system). How does the FED create money given this definition? Does the FED give money to you (being a member of the public)? With respect to hyper-inflations, I suggest you go back and read in more detail what happened. It occurs when governments print money to finance deficits when resources are scarce. In the cases you cited, the countries did not have any excess productive capacity. As governments spend (and the central banks supplied the currency) in these cases, they increase demand in an economy that is at full capacity. Yes, in this case, government deficit spending financed by "printing money" leads to inflation. However, if there is excess capacity, then firms can expand output of goods and services, as demand is increased by government spending, even if the money used by government is simply printed. Thought experiment: in the current recessionary environment, if the government printed $20,000 and gave it to you to buy a car from GM, would that cause inflation? That is, would/could GM raise prices in this case?

The tournament I am in is at Rothland--it's a very mediocre course. If you want to play in Akron, you'd probably enjoy Ivy Ridge more than Arrowhead, but A-head will have better deals in Sept. If you can get Diamond Hawk on a weekend for the price you stated, that's a good deal. It's also a very challenging course. If you don't mind crossing the border and want the best public experience in the area, then try Lochness Links (used to be called Hunter's Pointe) in Welland 20 minutes from Peace Bridge. On a Saturday I doubt you'd really have trouble crossing.

Would love to meet you and others. I'll have to check the tailgate site to find out where Danny's is... I did meet a few people when I attended the Bills-Chargers game--10 years ago?!?--in San Diego. In fact, I was just wondering what's up or what happened to Lamb? Does he still haunt this place? Is that punk Gavin coming? (just kidding GiVB if you still read this board).

M, Maybe we need to discuss in more detail what is meant by inflation? It is measured by changes in the price of various goods and services captured by an index like the CPI (or PPI). Within the index some prices are increasing and some are decreasing. Therefore, to explain "inflation" one needs to explain why each individual price is changing. Would you agree with this?

Correct. However, people (like Magox) have been repeating the mantra that the Fed has been printing money which will cause inflation. The Fed has been increasing reserves to the banking system, and reserves are part of the monetary base--the graphs that Magox linked to. The reserves are simply an electronic credit to the banks. Just as the Fed can giveth reserves, so can it taketh. As long as there are excess resources (i.e. high unemployment), there will be no inflation, no matter how many electronic chits the Fed gives to the banking system...

Why, if the FED has been "printing (so much) money" over the past year, are prices stable or in fact falling?

Unfortunately I have to play in a fundraiser that day, and it's not at a very good course....

Harvest Hills would probably be your best bet, but might be difficult to get a sat. tee time--actually all of them will be equally difficult getting tee times. If ivy ridge is an option, you might as well throw in Arrowhead which is nearby. http://www.arrowheadgolfclub.net/ Best greens in WNY imo. Just thought of another, diamond hawk near the airport. http://www.diamondhawkgolf.com/ This is a really nice course but the last time I played it took 5+ hours, so I stay away now. You can't go wrong with any of those course, and Arrowhead may be the easiest to get a tee time.

I agree somewhat on the point you make about revenues, but not about expenditures. Yes capital gains revenues helped, but weren't necessarily the key driving factor for revenues; otherwise why were personal revenues their highest in 2000 when the market fell that year? As for expenditures, people support democrats because they want to see less spending on defense and more on social; and it's the opposite for repubs. Clinton cut spending, which was focused on defense--duh! Nothing though really refutes Bartlett's main point: ersatz conservatives have been hypocrits when it comes to criticizing Obama's economics while giving Bush2 a free pass. As for the Bush2\Clinton comparison, the most telling number is the growth rate difference. One would be hard-pressed to find another administration with 8 years of performance that poor...

Boy, we're so lucky that the feldster is on the board. Maybe he can work similar miracles as he did for AIG's board...

Pretty cool place recently opened under Embassy Suites. The Avant

And the Music City Miracle was indeed a lateral....

Ahhh...reminds me of the old days... Maybe it was the pot, but I thought the concerts I saw before they went studio-only were the bomb. Dias and the Skunk on Bodhisattva was always my favorite.

wrt the "right price," I was trying to say that speculators had once again pushed the price of oil up, but the underlying fundamentals suggest the rise was not sustainable (and we're seeing that now). It's quite possible that the CFTC's announcement this week also helped bring the price down. While I might agree with your conjecture about future inflation, I disagree with the extent of it. Policy makers will not let inflation go past double digits. However, a "little" inflation will actually be good for the economy. As for the definition of inflation, there is only one. We are disagreeing on its cause.

As I mentioned, I am looking at the (relatively) near term that futures contracts cover, which of course is all about anticipation, hence the term...futures. I am saying their bets about the near term are wrong. Inflation is a rise in the general level of prices. Your definition expresses the monetarists' belief that it's caused from the Fed printing too much money. This is wrong. While the Fed has "created" huge volumes of money, that money is not being circulated (as JA mentioned). The Fed can also destroy money, and will do so when the economy starts to recover. Btw, one doesn't need money to buy something; one needs "credit." While money has been increasing, credit has been decreasing. Which one is more imortant for its impact on inflation? If you look a bit further back you'll find that the dollar-oil relationship is fairly recent. In fact, it starts about the time that speculators took over the futures markets....

IMO, those who are making short/medium term bets in the futures markets are wrong; the fundamentals don't support $70 oil. I dont' see global demand rising sharply over the next two years, so I don't see oil rising by 200%. I'd take your bet, but as 2012 is the end of the Mayan calendar (and world), I won't be here to collect....

The point made was that AIG helped start the game, and with all the money being made no one wanted it to end. So, when AIG "got out of the (subprime) game" (almost) everyone else was willing to fill the gap. Your last point is conjecture, especially since AIG "got out of the game" the same year that Greenberg was forced out. IMHO, the crash would've happened, and AIG would've gone down, whether Greenberg was there or not.

YOu are correct--if not Cassano, it would've been [place name here].

I didn't mean that you hold another currency, I meant that you invest in paper assets of those currencies--an emerging market mutual fund or foreign bond fund for example. As for inflation, until the "money" that has been created gets into the hands of people who buy things, there is little to no risk of inflation. The only reason that commodity prices, especially oil, have gone up (until now) is because of people speculating that there will be inflation. Their bets are wrong. Yes, Law's exploits were described in Kindleberger's book (manias, panics, and crashes).

What is our "dollar policy"? Also, if the $ is falling, one doesn't have to hold hard assets, one can simply hold paper assets in the currencies it is declining against. Put a number on "the next few years," and I might take that bet.

Contracts can be settled in cash without taking delivery or one can simply close a position by buying "the other side of the contract", which is why there can be more oil traded than what physically exists. In fact, the majority of commodity futures contracts are never delivered. The futures (and other derivative) markets were created for hedgers, not speculators. The reason contract limits were put in place was to prevent the (easy) manipulation of prices by speculators. Having limits does not prevent market speculation, it prevents speculators from manipulating the market.

Speculators have controlled the futures (and therefore spot) markets for the past several years. Limiting their positions in futures markets is long overdue... back to the futures markets

I really enjoyed Galway, and would've stayed longer if I could have. Great oysters there! In 2007 I spent a week in Glengariff/Bantry (in the southwest), absolutely beautiful. I actually got an invite to Maureen O'hara's birthday party (it's officially 8/17) in Glengariff, but couldn't extend my stay. If you do manage to make it that far south, have a Murphy's at the Maple Leaf pub in Glengariff. You will enjoy Ireland no matter where you go.