The Frankish Reich

Maybe the scouting staff, but the GM? Hey, I'll admit I could be wrong here, but I can't recall this year's Bills chronology happening before: - Coach Fired; GM retained - Draft/Free Agency period complete - GM fired

I guess now the final grade is in on that best-ever 2014 WR draft class: Overal pick #4, Sammy - 5th year will be declined: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/04/28/bills-now-not-expected-to-pick-up-sammy-watkins-option/ Overall pick #7, Evans - option picked up: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/04/17/buccaneers-pick-up-mike-evans-fifth-year-option/ Overall pick #12, Beckham - option picked up: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000802050/article/giants-to-exercise-5thyear-option-on-odell-beckham Overall pick #20, Cooks - option picked up: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000804579/article/patriots-pick-up-brandin-cooks-fifthyear-option- and that happened after the Pats gave up their 1st round pick for him Overall pick # 28, Benjamin - option picked up: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000795044/article/panthers-to-pick-up-kelvin-benjamins-fifthyear-option Really, two huge misses on drafting EJ and then trading up for Watkins will define Whaley's tenure for a long time ...

"Better to trade a player a year too early than a year too late." Branch Rickey. And we're a year too late on Sammy. With one year on his contract and iffy health, he'd probably get you a 4th rounder or so. Last year this time? 1st rounder wouldn't have been out of the question.

But they kinda do have a point, right? When's the last time an all but announced lame duck GM and entire scouting staff was left in place to actually conduct the draft? Only in Billsland. And would I gloat over Patriots misfortunes (if and when they have them?) Umm, in a second ...

There are exactly 4 defensive players left from that 2014 defense: Kyle, Dareus, Hughes, Preston Brown. Time for a reality check. It ain't comin' back.

Damn right we're rebuilding. And the target year is 2020. Add to the things you mention the existing salary cap/long term contract issue. This is Whaley's true legacy - a legacy that leaves whoever the new guy is in quite a pickle for at least a couple more years, more likely for three: Dump Dareus in 2018? $22 million dead cap hit. In 2019? $7.8 million. In 2020? $1.4 million Dump Glenn in 2018? $11 million dead cap hit. In 2019? $6.4 million. In 2020? $3.2 million Dump Clay in 2018? $9 million dead cap hit. In 2019? $4.5 million. In 2020? No problem; his contract expires after 2019. Dump McCoy in 2018? $5.25 million dead cap hit. In 2019? $2.6 million. In 2020? Same as Clay; contract over. Dump Hughes in 2018? $5.8 million dead cap hit. In 2019? $2.9 million. In 2020? Same/contract over. Even if Dareus rebounds a bit, you can't expect him to perform like he did in his prime. Glenn/McCoy/Clay/Hughes were still productive and should still be over the next couple years, but it would be foolish to expect anything other than a normal decline curve. The big contracts these guys have will become a bigger and bigger problem as their performance declines, and the Bills simply aren't in position to dump these contracts until 2019 at the earliest - I'd expect 2 or the 4 to be gone before the 2019 season, with the other 2 to follow before 2020. This is the Browns in slo-mo, gradually ridding themselves of bad contracts and putting young players in key roles in a survival of the fittest derby. So the rebuild has to aim for some indications of a turnaround in 2019 (a new QB with a rookie year under his belt?), and a complete remaking of the roster by 2020. I'm convinced that's what's happening without Bills brass being willing to admit it. They'll try to stay competitive in 2017 with the hopes of back dooring their way into the playoffs (think Dolphins last year; that should've been us!), and then 2018 becomes the planned big down year with a young QB and a lot, lot of new faces as McD fully puts his stamp on this roster.

Funny how things change. I started a thread urging this last offseason, and I got almost 100% eyeroll emojis and the like. I see things so far are a little different this year ... Really, you have to look at who has trade value on this team to start trying to build a real winning core by 2019, when Sammy clearly won't be here. Whaley was too invested in Sammy to even consider it, but now that the new leadership can look at it in the clear light of day, I think the answer is obvious.

Ronnie Hillman is a great idea, particularly since he kind of duplicates McCoy's skill set - outside running ability, works well as a receiver - although obviously at a lower level. The Broncos regret letting him walk last year...

I just finished reading a book called "The Arm" by Jeff Passan (highly recommended, by the way.) It's a baseball book focused on Tommy John surgery and guys blowing out their arms more and more frequently at younger ages. But there's also a chapter in there about guys who significantly increased velocity through training programs (no, not steroids, although that certainly worked too), including guys who came back from TJ surgery throwing harder than they ever did before. By the way, in baseball it's not unusual even without newfangled training programs for pitchers to hit peak velocity in their mid-20s. Peterman will be 23 next week, so it's not out of the question that he could pick up a few ticks on his "fastball" over the next couple years of sitting and waiting.

I think Kevin Hogan last year was in the same place as Peterman. And he had some moments last year, such that I haven't written him off yet as a potential starter.

"Developmental" QBs can't sit for 3 years watching and learning these days. They'll be free agents after 4! If Cardale doesn't show major improvements in camp/preseason, he'll be gone.

Pennington (pre-shoulder) and Cousins are probably good examples. Maybe Bridgewater? If some folks out there have seen all of Peterman's games, I'll defer to you. But I have to assume that if Peterman had a truly "weak" - as opposed to "a bit below average for college QBs who project to be an NFL starter" - I can't imagine he would've been drafted at all, much less in the 5th round. Interesting where my memory is wrong - he actually DID start for the Cowboys in their first 5 games in his rookie year. And then went to the playoffs as the Bears QB in 1994, throwing for 299 yards. But overall, we're right - he was a classic NFL backup guy, and his career was effectively over by the time he hit 30.

Good point. I always go way back to when the Cowboys drafted both Aikman and Steve Walsh (Miami Hurricanes). Walsh was more "polished" in the sense of reading defenses, making quick decisions, etc. But Aikman was obviously the far superior physical specimen. Walsh looked better than Aikman early on. In fact, there was a solid subset of Cowboys fans who were clamoring for Walsh early on. But Walsh hit his ceiling very early, whereas Aikman obviously learned the mental parts of the game and became a HOFer.

I see it differently - Peterman replaces Cardale. Cardale was (probably) Whaley's guy, or (possibly) Rex's guy. I think drafting Peterman is a strong signal that McD doesn't expect Cardale to develop. Yates is the TT short-term injury insurance. Peterman is the developmental guy. Cardale is likely gone, and let's be honest: does anyone think we could get even a 7th rounder for him? I doubt it.

All I can say is that if I'm a tackle caught running around a field with no pants on, and then my team drafts a tackle, I'd be pretty worried.

Yeah. People wrongly equate winning with success at running a major sports franchise. Sabres attendance this year? Right in the middle of the pack. And the Bills are very profitable; it would actually be hard not to make a lot of money with an NFL franchise, but it's not as if the bodies have stopped coming. Again, the Bills - a very small market team (unless you throw in Toronto, which you really shouldn't unless you have like a .20 factor or something) - fell right in the middle of the pack. So on the "do his teams win?" account, he's a miserable failure. On the "does he make his bosses money?" account, he's a double winner.

Other than the Redskins. Which is what bothers me. How the hell do they get to: (1) change GMs/coaches at the drop of a hat; (2) draft 2 QBs in one draft, go to the playoffs with one, have him flame out with injury and ineffectiveness, and then go to the playoffs with the other one; (3) trade away a bunch of picks for a QB who ultimately had only one good year, and somehow not suffer long-term Bills-like pain for that ill-fated decision; (4) have an alcoholic GM and the most obnoxious meddling owner this side of Jerry Jones, and STILL be in a better place than the Bills? Life isn't fair.

Not a bad guy, and kind of a mixed record. He'll reemerge somewhere in the NFL. Sometimes the first go round isn't the best. Ultimately, it came down to one thing: E.J. Manuel. If EJ had been even modestly effective - think Tannehill effective, not necessarily Derek Carr - his reputation would be very different.

That's pretty obviously true now, which makes it exceedingly unlikely that some big name is going to be willing to take the GM job. So I have to assume the Pantherization of the Bills is going to continue.

It didn't take much of an injury to Smith for Harbaugh to make a definitive change to Kaepernick ... Mahomes will get his shot at some point. Whether he grabs it like Kaep or Dak is up to him.

I think that's right, and I think that's also why we'll see Mahomes take over at QB by midseason unless he looks really, really rough in preseason. Let's just say it's a trade that made sense for both teams based on where they are in the competition cycle. It's been pretty well proven that KC has a playoff caliber roster (and still has some key players in prime/cost-controlled years), but that they are not likely to reach the promised land with Alex Smith. And the Bills? Well, that promised land is one that Tyrod Taylor will never see either. In fact, if Mahomes does take over, couldn't you see Alex Smith as Bills QB in 2018? In other words, are we where the Chiefs were in 2013, waiting for the skilled game manager who can at least get us into the playoffs?

I give this draft a B- overall. As far as the players actually selected (kind of a narrow definition of how to grade a draft), I'd say that's an A-. Of the 3 top picks, you should have one solid starter, one likely significant contributor, and one possible contributor on the O line. And after that, it's a crapshoot all the time, and taking a flyer on a QB who flew under the radar a bit (bouncing from program to program) is perfectly justifiable in the Bills situation. I'm not about to start critiquing 6th and 7th round picks. But there's a broader way to grade a draft, and the bolded sentence here hits the nail on the head. The broader question is, "how does this draft fit within an overall strategy of developing a playoff team roster in [blank] years?" I don't like these schizophrenic approaches to roster building. Winning teams usually don't hedge bets like this - "we'll draft for need, and fill in a few key holes in our roster, but we'll also start trying to stockpile a future high pick since realistically our competition window isn't open for a couple years." I prefer to go all-in on one or the other. And on that basis, I give this draft a D. The saving grace is the trade down to 27 to get an extra 1st next year. But I'd say it wasn't bold enough. It should have been the first blast in a major drive to accumulate high picks next year, but that strategy was immediately undone by moving up (not down) in subsequent rounds. So that all adds up to my B-. My specific gripes: if you were going to try to have your cake and eat it, and try to take a bold step that could just possibly launch you into serious playoff contention in 2017, I wanted O.J. Howard. That would have created huge matchup problems for defenses: Clay + Howard, plus Watkins. I have to assume they would have gone that route if they'd kept Gilmore, but I guess that just wasn't feasible. On the other hand, I'm not particularly sold on Zay Jones. Can we really say for sure that he's an upgrade over Justin Hunter, a waiver pickup? WRs whose main attribute is being tall/end zone threats, but who don't seem to have great ability to gain separation against NFL DBs, and have never shown RAC ability. I think he'll be good at that, in exactly the same way Justin Hunter was good at that. In other words, I didn't like trading up for him. And on a purely fan level - nobody in this draft that will be particularly fun to watch, unless you're a real film geek who can get all excited about White's solid inside cover technique or Dion Dawkins' good balance for a big man ...

Yeah, that 2nd/3rd round night was weirdly entertaining. Drew Pearson trolling the Eagles fans, the J-E-T-E Jets thing, crazy grandma photo guy, and now the slo-mo booger replay ...

The anti-Cardale. This is the guy I kind of liked if we were going to use a low-round draft pick on a QB. And to me it signals that McD isn't too thrilled with what we have in Cardale (neither am I).