The Frankish Reich

This is pretty shocking. I mean, I’m very familiar with the Washington Elite Way Of Accepting Favors, but to not disclose these super high-end travel gifts is …pretty shocking. (Said by a guy who has been required to do annual financial disclosures himself. No way anyone would be confused about whether these trips needed to be disclosed)

Agreed. It is basically uncontested (at least in all the pronouncements from Trump and his team) that he did falsify records. I’ll repeat my take: - this prosecution is unwise for many reasons - nonetheless, it is pretty clear that Trump violated NY law - whether it is chargeable as a felony based on campaign finance laws depends on unresolved issues of NY criminal law and on issues of federal supremacy (also an open issue) - whether it is chargeable as a felony based on anticipated NY state tax fraud depends on issues of fact that will be difficult to prove - there is a difference between an ill advised prosecution (this one) and an unfair prosecution

You mean I misunderstood the many Republicans who now say they are advocating for a nationwide federal abortion ban? Maybe if they’d stick to their old line - “but it’s an issue for the people of each state to decide!” - you’d have a point. But it turns out that whole states rights thing was bs, no?

You are playing a bizarre semantic game here. Let’s say OJ needs money (again). Let’s say someone pays him $10 million and he gives a detailed interview about exactly how he killed Ron and Nicole. I think 99.99% of us would say “he committed a horrific crime” notwithstanding the fact that he was acquitted by a jury and can never again be put on trial for that.

Dershowitz, for many reasons, has been marginalized. Did the Epstein thing drive him toward Trump? Or did his marginalization from the academic world do it? Who knows. Unpopular opinion: I think he still has it (the legal chops) as evidenced by the rather clever arguments he made at the impeachment hearings. Those weren’t popular arguments (they had kind of a “he’s a scoundrel but it’s not an impeachable offense” tone), but to my ears they were pretty well thought out. Kind of what Trump needs now. Politically, Trump understands his fanboys - “I could shoot someone in the middle of 5th Avenue and they’d still vote for me” - so is there really any downside to admitting his proclivity for hookers, err “adult film performers?” Admit you’re a creep but argue that there’s no chargeable criminal offense here. Yes! When you talk about so-and-so “committing a crime,” do you add the caveat “provided he’s arrested and charged before the statute of limitations runs”? Those are two different things. There’s a lot of people who committed crimes - even admitted they committed crimes - and then avoided criminal consequences because of a statute of limitations, illegal search and seizure, etc. Think Bill Cosby.

Yes, I am a lawyer. And yes, I understand this strategy very well: - get the felony charges dismissed - that leaves the DA with nothing since he can’t fall back on misdemeanor charges. Easier said than done! They alleged a nexus to campaign finance violations (a shaky theory on legal grounds, given that federal election law may be found to be exclusive here), but also a nexus to planned (apparently NOT claimed) NYS tax violations (shaky on factual grounds, although if proved the legal theory is fine). BUT you’re missing my point: no one is even arguing that he didn’t commit the misdemeanor offenses. It’s just that they’re not chargeable. That’s kind of different than “I did nothing illegal.”

Of course a crime took place. It doesn’t even appear that Trump’s defense team is going to argue that the falsification of business records didn’t happen. They’re already arguing that these were misdemeanor offenses and that the statute of limitations has long run on them (typically 2 years under NY law). Now as to whether they are provable as felonies? That’s a good (and open) question. As to whether the DA ought to be charging them at all? Even a better question. But that’s not the same thing as being innocent of all wrongdoing or lawbreaking.

1. The Ravens GM is clever. Maybe too clever. Lamar is stuck. No other team wants to go all-in on a contract offer that the Ravens could match if it’s team-friendly (you then have to start the QB search from scratch, having p’d off the incumbent), or that will cost 2 first rounders plus a ridiculously player-friendly guaranteed contract. Maybe too clever because they may get to keep an unmotivated Lamar. Do they really want that? 2. Lamar would be better off if he’d sexually harassed multiple massage therapists, not to the point of criminal liability, but to the point where he is not welcome in polite society. (Polite society does not include Cleveland) This is where we are as a culture.

Where's Barron these days?

Off topic, but maybe there’s one tiny thing we can all agree on? I have a kid in college in another state. Here in Colorado it’s all mail/drop-off ballot voting. I checked: she’s authorized to vote in Colorado. I also checked her college’s state: she’s authorized to vote there too. This isn’t a federal election so it’s no big deal. But when it is a federal election, what’s to stop her from voting twice? I’m a lawyer (I mention this only because I ought to be able to understand the laws here), but I honestly can’t figure out where she’s supposed to vote and where she’s not allowed to vote. I think (I’m not sure) that she’s gotta choose just one, but does that apply to local elections too? I mean, some municipalities let non-US citizens vote, so who knows? How about a little clarity in the law here.

Our friends the Saudis deliver again! Oh, and by the way: https://www.businessinsider.com/kushners-2-billion-investment-saudi-backed-fund-concealed-sec-rules-2023-2?amp

That’s … Unpresidented!

Tre'davious White was never the "shutdown corner" we tried to convince ourselves he was. And now his ceiling is as an average CB.

Agreed. And that’s kind of my point in my long post. I started off thinking, “surely there’s an example out there of a great QB (HOF level) who got stuck on such poorly run teams that he produced a long streak of uncompetitive seasons.” That’s simply not the case in the modern NFL. Rosters churn like never before. Coaches get hired and fired. And the great ones lead their team back to the upper tier routinely. In fact they do it all the time. And then those great QBs go to new teams when they’re old. And guess what? Those new teams get good. Brett Favre: twice (Jets, Vikes. I know they both ended badly, but the teams were better with them than they were before them). Joe Montana. Peyton. Kurt Warner. Even Warren Moon. Other than Russell Wilson, you’ve gotta go back to the 70s to find notable late-career Great QB/New Team failures, but those were essentially basket cases like Namath and Unitas. (This is why I am not joining the chorus of “Aaron Rodgers; Bring It On! posters we seem to have now.)

I know it's long, but read my OP! I am putting Josh Allen in the same elite group as 1 current HOFer, 2 no-doubt first-ballot HOFers, and one likely HOFer. And I'm saying as long as Allen is healthy we will be in the playoff (and yes, SB) hunt. If your expectations are that this team will go 14-3 or 13-4 every season, you are setting yourself up for disappointment. You're right ... that old Bills PTSD. It probably will take one Super Bowl win for us to get past that. But hey, until then we get to watch some pretty fantastic football 17 times a year, and then at least a couple times in the playoffs, right?

We’ve been through this many times before, but maybe our best window (to grab a Von or a similar game changer) was in 2021. But that time should come again. More than once. I meant it to be “it’s really hard not to be a consistent winner when you have a HOF level QB.” Glass half full guy here …

Well, the entire point is building a consistent winner. That’s what Beane and MCDermott stressed when they were brought in. That’s what they’ve delivered on so far. Look, it’s great if you draft Mahomes, wait one year, win Super Bowl. Russell Wilson, Big Ben, Brady: same. Sometimes it requires always being in the hunt, making a good move or two at just the right time, and finishing the job. I promised (threatened? However you see it …) a follow-on post addressing “how long can we expect our Peak Josh Allen window to remain open.” Spoiler alert: a while.

I forgot Frank Gore. I think he was 36 when we signed him. Now he was purely meant to be a “veteran presence” on a rebuilding team, but he was kind of toast by the time we got him. Veteran Leader Toast.

Other than Von, who are the "old guys" who didn't work out? If the age cutoff is 33 (Von's age last year), there's not really anyone who was signed for serious money with an expectation of a making a serious contribution. Lorenzo Alexander was 33 when we signed him, and we certainly got our money's worth. Rodger Saffold? Josh Norman? I don't think expectations were high with those two, and they lived down to those expectations. If Campbell signs anywhere the money he gets will reflect his age and expected limited playing time.

Or at least being in the running for a playoff spot right up until the final 2 weeks. Believe me, after two decades of futility, I can live with this kind of drought.

We're not exactly sure where the 2023 Bills will be in the competition cycle. It kind of looks like a retooling (certainly not rebuilding) year. Maybe it will work and we'll easily win the division again and make a playoff run. But at some time - as it does for every team other than that one whose name must not be spoken - there will be down years. Excepting that one exception, the question is this: When you have an elite (on a HOF track) QB, what do "down years" look like? Answer: Not so bad at all, and certainly not so long. Examples: current (or recently retired) QBs who have been/are on a HOF trajectory through a 10 year career: 1. Aaron Rodgers. Since taking over as starter and going 6-10, his record as a starter was under .500 just once - a 6-9-1 in 2018. And then he and the Pack immediately rebounded to 3 consecutive 13-3 records until going 8-9 last year. In short, his team (with him at QB) had ONE down year over the course of 13 seasons. Not bad. 2. Drew Brees. Yes, I'll even include the Chargers years. After an 8-8 rookie season and a terrible 2-9 the following year, he put up the following seasons for the Chargers and then the Saints: 11-4 9-7, 9-7 10-6 (first Saints year), 7-9, 8-8, 13-2, 11-5, 13-3, 7-9, 7-8, 7-9, 11-5, 13-2, 8-3, 9-3 One mediocre two-year streak with the Saints, and then another mediocre 3 year streak. No horrible seasons among them; just mediocre retooling years. And 8 seriously winning seasons in the rest of his Saints career. 3. Peyton Manning. Terrible 3-13 rookie year. Then one 6-10 season in his third year, but other than that never worse than 10-6 in his Colts career. Then a season on the IL, then a Broncos career of 13-3, 13-3, 12-4, 7-2 (yeah, that one goes to the defense). So ... basically the teams he QB'd had ONE bad season out of 16 following his rookie year. 4. Russell Wilson. Yeah, hindsight is 20/20. But as he went into his 10th season he was clearly on the HOF trajectory. Started out 11-5 as a rookie, then his worst season through his age 31 season was a 9-7. Then 6-8 in his last Seattle season, and the horrid 4-11 as a Bronco. But still: a 9 year run in which he always had a winning record, including a 13-3, and two 12-4s. I do think its not too early to say that Josh Allen, barring serious injury or erosion of his skills by taking repeated poundings*, is on the elite/HOF track. And so things may get "bad" in Orchard Park, but they'll likely be Drew Brees/Saints bad (a 2-3 year run of mediocrity), or even better, Aaron Rodgers bad (think 7-10 one year, then a quick rebound). QBs are so overwhelmingly important in today's NFL that if you have consistently exceptional QB play you just don't ever have lengthy downturns or (barring injury) disastrous 5-12 type seasons. I think the Bills are doing the right thing now. It's a little frustrating because we were so close, and now other teams have caught up or even passed us. But I can live with the down seasons the other greats produced. We will be back. And back. And back again. *This is the wild card. I've also been looking at aging patterns of QBs who depend heavily on their running skills. Not "mobile QBs" who scramble to buy time (think Mahomes) and only try to run downhill when a critical game is on the line. I'm thinking of the guys who consistently had 400 or 500 yard rushing seasons. QBs who feature the designed (or option) run as a key feature of their game (and, in turn, their success). Guys like Newton, Wilson, McNair, McNabb, Cunningham. And now guys like Allen and Hurts and Lamar and Murray. And I gotta admit it, I'm a little worried. More on that later.

OK. I'll go back and edit. I think the following applies to only one person in the world. "pervy 70-something obese libertine with a bad spray-on tan and the world's most ridiculous combover" EDIT: It just occurred to me ... MIKE PENCE. Definitely not pervy or a libertine. Some other issues there, but creepy old horndog is not one of them.

"Our precious, precious President ..." Can't make this crap up. I will never understand where this Trump As Messiah thing came from. Take a pervy 70-something libertine and treat him like the second coming.