GunnerBill

Just based on your last two efforts I like Jackson at #98 a lot better than I like him at #60. I don't like Dorlus as a scheme fit for the Bills though. He is a 5tech who needs to play defensive end in a 3-4 IMO.

This is my preference too - get two guys in the draft who are going to be here for 4 years minimum with Josh rather than 1/2 year vet guy. But that does sort of depend how they really feel about Diggs in the building. If they think the production drop 2nd half of the year was a case of him being a bit banged up, Josh and he just failing to connect on 3/4 deep balls (between Stef dropping a couple and Josh missing him on a couple of potential big home runs) and teams really keying in on him with Gabe's struggles then I'd go to the two rookie route. If, however, their honest view is there are signs of the beginning of the decline with Stef then I think I'd want another vet option in the building.

They played most of this season with Tyrel Dodson starting at linebacker and a revolving door of characters coming in and out of the secondary and they were a top 10 defense. They need some pieces there but beyond one safety they are not pieces I think they should be dedicating a lot of $$s to. My plan is make a safety your 1 first wave of free agency move - but don't pay top of the market there will be 8-10 serviceable vet starters out there. And I'd try again in the June market for a vet pass rusher with the money I'd save by cutting the corpse of Von Miller's career. I don't think the Bills will do that though, Von will likely be here, so safety would be my only reasonably sized contract. They will need some lower value Dline depth pieces but I'm talking contracts of the level that they don't get comp pick formula consideration (not saying the comp pick formula should be be all and end all by the way, that is just a proxy for the value level I'm talking in terms of those backups. If I was making a second move in the initial free agency wave it would be a vet receiver. DJ Chark, Josh Reynolds, maybe Kendrick Bourne. Someone in that sort of tier. I'd probably pass on the vet route though and be trying to get two viable receivers from the draft though. Ideally I want someone with #1 receiver ceiling early and then someone late with some inside/outside flex who can be what Gabe was his first two years here and be your first guy in off the bench who knows all three spots.

Not at punter it isn't. I was never quite as high as the hype on him but I certainly understand the swing on his potential at a cheap price.

It is a downgrade in punting. There is no other way of seeing it. Townsend is the best punter in the league. Whether it makes financial sense is a different question. I understand what the Chiefs are thinking. They are thinking we can afford to get worse at punter rather than some other spots. I get that. But they are getting worse if they swap Townsend for Araiza.

Yea I think Townsend wants the highest punting contract on the market. I think Araiza will start there. But he is a downgrade on Townsend. My issue with Araiza was always his hang time was a problem despite his leg.

Agree. I am delighted Matt has got another shot. He is an innocent man and deserves the chance to re-start his career. But if he is in place of Townsend he is likely a downgrade for KC.

Because across 2021 and 2022 he was a top 5 Tight End in terms of redzone production. His production elsewhere was a result of game plan not any lack of ability on his part - he was top 10 (all players) in separation rates per Next Gen Stats - the Bills just ignored him. Where the Bills used him, he was excellent. I am willing to give him a mulligan on 2023 given the injuries. He played hurt from week 2 on until they finally shut him down for a chunk of the year. I do think the drafting of Kincaid and the fact that Josh prefers to play in 11 means his bare production has a ceiling, but he is still a very good player.

I'd forgotten Rice. I think he'd still go ahead of Nacua too. I'm not disputing the point that you can find good receivers later. But the draft isn't a total crap shoot and you normally find the best receivers at the top of the class. That isn't to say I disagree with you on Diggs. I don't. While he definitely slowed down the stretch last year he is still a good receiver and I think with an upgrade at the vertical receiver spot opposite him that stops teams shading coverage to Diggs's side and bracketing him he will still put 1,000 yards next year. It also doesn't really help a 2025 re-set. So the argument that it is about taking the pain this year doesn't really work. Diggs will be here in 2024. I am 99.9% sure of it. And he should be too. I think whether he is here BEYOND 2024 is a much better debate. The Cover 1 crew think he will by and large. I am not as convinced. I think it really depends a lot on what happens this year.

Nacua was the most productive rookie. If you re-drafted the 2023 class I still don't think you'd take him as the first receiver off the board though. I think Addison and Flowers would be the first two. Nacua would go third for me.

I have seen a few say Chop is a 3-4 guy only. That is not how I see him. I think he can play in a 4-3. He has the skillset to do it he just might not be the guy you want in on a lot of early downs as a rookie because he hasn't done much of it and has some room to work on diagnosing the run game and maintaining his gap discipline. To be clear I wasn't saying I'd draft him for the Bills. But I can see him being their type. He is the definition of high ceiling and toolsy even if the production does not match the hype. With the exception of last year the Bills have gone for measurables and traits early in the draft. If it is not receiver (I think it will be) then when I look at the guys who are likely going to be coming off the board in that final 6 or 7 picks of round one area and think about combining what the Bills value with a reasonable need he is the guy that stands out as a possibility to me.

So could I. If it isn't a WR I think he is in the mix. Right draft range and their type.

I'd rip the band aid off with Miller. I'd keep Stef one more year, because that is the sensible way to play it if you want to eat pain this year and free yourself up next year as long as you do not (and I wouldn't) press the restructure button which allows them to save money this year with him but costs more next year.

I agree with this. My only quibble is I defend them a bit on last year's draft. Because as a draft, it pretty much sucked. I was fine with taking a profit from last year's draft. I am almost always a "take shots at ceiling at premium positions" guy - especially round 1. But I said even going into the draft last year that I would take a softer view on non-premium position picks if they went a bit safe because I felt and still feel a lot of teams will get 4 years down the road from the 2023 NFL Draft and have zero starters from that class. I would hope and expect Beane to go back to his bigger swing on premium position traits approach in 2024.

Yea. If the Bills want Franklin at #28 he will be there IMO. Agree McConkey way too high and Legette too low.

Correct but it didn't change his AAV. It was moving money around within the life of the long contract. And the reason they did it was CASH. Mahomes wasn't saying "My AAV is down to 8th highest among QBs I want a new deal" he was saying "hang on guys you are not putting enough money in my pockets over the middle section of this deal you need to move some money up" which is what the Chiefs did. It is the opposite to the restructures with Josh which are about moving money back to create cap space. Mahomes was asking them to move money forward to improve his real terms cash position over the next 3 years. And that is why I don't see Josh agitating yet. Because his cash position is still pretty strong for the next two years. After that his cash position weakens and that is when the Bills likely need to re-visit that deal.

Exactly this. Josh's AAV is now below market value, no doubt, but as of yet it hasn't hurt him in real terms in terms of pay. It won't really until after 2025. There is a chance though that if the Bills see Mahomes do a new deal they want to move quickly because if you wait too long after Mahomes the market moves again and suddenly in AAV terms Josh is #1. Which obviously tightens up other things. That Mahomes re-do proves my point. It wasn't about AAV. It was about cash.

He is a level above Spencer Brown, Dalton Kincaid and James Cook though. I think Ed is a blue chip. I just think need a higher category above that which only Josh sits in for us. Ed Oliver was our 2nd best player in 2023 though. And it wasn't close IMO. Yea agree on Breece vs Cook. If I am giving the edge to anyone I give it to Cook. Taron it is probably contract related (1 year left) but they will have no issue fixing thst and extending him IMO

Yes, but you don't care about your specific cap number. You care that you are getting paid a good chunk of change every year. If you can do that in a way that helps manage the cap, great. But you don't really fixate on your cap number. That isn't what matters.

Beane argues, and it is not untrue, that the covid cap reduction threw all his plans out of kilter. There is some truth to that. Teams who were at the start of a Championship window in that period were hit the hardest because the last couple of years they had with a rookie QB as buyers in the market got sucked away by a reduced cap. However, you are right..... there is also money he has had to throw at Oline and Dline that is a direct result of the misses on the likes of Cody Ford and Boogie Basham and the fact that AJE and Rousseau were not in themselves difference makers. He is about to be in the same spot with Douglas when if Elam was ready, even with Tre's injuries, you should have been able to transition more smoothly to a cheap deal. So I do give him a bit of leeway on the covid cap implications but also, yea, he has gone hunting for difference makers in FA to cover one or two of his misses. I heard $252m mooted on Sunday by a twitter account of a guy who is pretty plugged in. That extra $10-12m would be huge for the Bills.

I am not talking about cap hits though, players don't really care about cap hits. That is for GMs and fans to worry about. Players worry about cash. When Allen gets his new deal it will come with a hefty signing bonus which will give him an even bigger payday even though the Bills will account for it over multiple years (as many as possible) to spread it out and lower the hit. I think Josh will play 2024 and 2025 on the current deal. Summer 2025 is when I expect him to extend.

In AAV terms, sure. But in cash terms he is gonna get about $47m this year after the restructure. Next year he will get $49.5m after the next restructure. After that his contract will get re-done because it would be almost certain his cash number would start falling per year after that.

They will re-sign him before the league year opens. Not franchising him does not mean he will hit FA.

It is real. But it is an accounting cap. It isn't a salary cap.

I see receivers check with the official routinely. Always have. It happens literally every game. Toney didn't. That is on nobody but Toney. He is dumb. And he did a dumb thing. And the officials penalised him for it.