GunnerBill

In four leagues, three drafts done - 1 to go. Guys I have multiple shares in because I tend to find they go later than their value: Kenneth Walker (RB) Seattle Deandre Swift (RB) Chicago Zay Flowers (WR) Baltimore Christian Watson (WR) Green Bay Cole Kmet (TE) Chicago

There are obviously limits to leading through democracy but if you can give the impression you are while actually maintaining control that tends to generate better buy in and long term results. Also when you read the full article I think a key part of the approach is he is giving Josh ownership. Josh runs the Friday players only session and presents the findings back to Joe. It is interesting given some of the smoke this offseason about the top brass in the organisation wanting Josh to take more ownership of the team. It doesn't mean anything one way or another in terms of performance. Good gameplans and good execution are what matter. If this delivers it the Bills offense will cook, if it doesn't then the new approach will not make a blind bit of difference. I haven't heard that but it doesn't surprise me. I said it earlier this offseason they looked miserable as f*** playing under him.

Yea I suspect the same too.

I'd take a more positive outlook on 2023. I think the turning point was Toney's toe in Kansas City. I thought we were missing the playoffs until we won that game.

If they want to go to 18 games it HAS to come forward a week. There is just so little room after the Superbowl now. It was 18 days between the Superbowl and the Combine. It is basically 4 and a half weeks from Superbowl to free agency. That is insane. I know people think personnel planning can be done as quickly in reality as on Madden but it can't. If you are a team who has gone deep into the playoffs... certainly the conference championships or the Superbowl to fit in: 1. Review your coaching staff and fire anyone you don't want; 2. Interview and hire replacement coaches; 3. Self scout your entire roster position group by position group; 4. Decide who you are interested in bringing back and work out what you'd be willing to offer; 5. Engage with agents of those you want to keep; 6. Set your pro personnel FA targets based on the needs you have identified on your roster 7. At the same time as setting your early draft board, working out who you want to speak to at the Senior Bowl (which happens before the Superbowl) and the Combine etc You basically need to have done all that by mid march as part of your planning for the next season. Yes the draft process then continues until late April but you have to have an idea of the strength of the class at different positions, an idea the sort of areas the class is likely to be strongest at least where you are drafting on day 1 because that factors into your overall roster building strategy. There is no more room to push it later unless they push everything later and the NFLPA is unlikely to want much encroachment into the 5 weeks of dead space between mandatory minicamp at the start of June and training camp in mid July. Maybe the NFL will "give up" mandatory minicamp in order to get their 18th game and move everything back a week but I'd be surprised if the teams didn't push to keep it.

I think the bolded is the critical point. How often is a blockbuster player traded in training camp? I can't remember one? Maybe others can but even if it has happened it hasn't happened much. And it is because once you get beyond free agency and the draft teams have managed their roster pursuant to their cap for this year and their future cap planning for next year and the year after. That tends to leave teams who don't think they are in a contending window who have more flexibility to manoeuvre. Hence New England and Pittsburgh and Washington etc being in the conversation. Whoever you think had the leverage in February / March by the time you get to July the leverage of the team holding the rights only gets stronger.

I'll be willing to listen to that argument after the season depending on how it goes. I don't know that I have a clear sense right now of what Purdy's ceiling is. They definitely looked a devalued offense when his elite pieces around him missed games last season - a three game skid where they lost to the Browns, Vikings and Bengals scoring 17 in each game and Purdy managing 3 TDs to 5 INTs. Nor did he elevate necessarily in the post-season but I still wouldn't say he was the primary reason for their Superbowl defeat. I can't make my mind up yet what he is and I want to see more. I am normally staunchly anti the QB purgatory option. I'd pay Dak, I'd pay Tua. Yes the market dictates they get more than they are worth but the alternative is purgatory and that is not a place you want to live. However, you are right that Kyle Shanahan's history is of elevating Brian Hoyer (for a spell in Cleveland), Matt Schaub, Jimmy G and possibly Brock to the very top end of their potential and so maybe they have less to fear from the unknown than most. That said, he wasn't elevating CJ Beatherd, Nick Mullens (beyond a couple of good games at the start) or getting almost anything out of Trey Lance (though I always said that was a bizarre pick because he is almost in every way the antithesis of a Shanahan QB). The other factor for the 9ers though is that the reckoning is coming, almost irrelevant of Purdy. They are a true vet team. Williams is 36, Kittle is 31, Hargrave is 31, Juszczyk is 33..... they have a bunch of key guys at 28 or 29. Even of they let Purdy play out the two more years of his rookie deal then release him they are going to have to decide what their next step for a chunk of the roster is at that stage. I don't know. I am not totally against the idea that it might be better to let him walk. I'm happy to revisit in February.

They will have to make some decisions once they pay Purdy. I'm the biggest cheerleader for "the salary cap is just accounting" because it's true. But it doesn't mean you can avoid getting to some difficult decisions at some point. Especially with Purdy you have to remember what most teams do when a franchise Quarterback comes off rookie money is they find a way to make a new contract actually lower the cap hit in the first couple of years. That isn't going to be the case for the 9ers because Brock Purdy is a 7th round draft pick.... he is due to make $1.1m in 2025. Any extension after this season is adding $$s to that number. So it is $39m over BEFORE Purdy. The two obvious decisions for San Fran are to make this the final year of Trent Williams's HoF career. He will be 37 by the time next season starts. They save $15m by cutting him... though it leaves $19m dead cap. Malik Collins is the other easy decision $10m for a rotational DT and 0 dead cap if cut. Every other lever you might want to pull either comes with a big dead cap number (and they already have $12m dead cap from Charvarius Ward's void year on the books) and/or significant roster losses. To me the 2025 Niners will look a lot like the 2024 Bills. A team clearly in a re-set with some talent that will keep them competitive but also some holes. I suspect in the next two years Williams, Kittle, Samuel and Hargrave are gone and that is a LOT of talent to take off that team. When Williams, Samuel and McCaffrey missed time together last season you saw their offense not look the same. None of that is to say they can't still be good. They have a good coach, a good GM, and still have in Bosa and Aiyuk two prime age stars at two of the most premium of positions. But I think this is the last year they are going to be able to have a stacked roster in comparison to the competition. It gets tougher from hereon in.

Not true that everyone else wants man corners. Or that the Bills are "#zone for life." Let's bring some evidence to the party.... the Bills ran the 6th highest percentage of man coverage in 2023 at 32.2%. Most of the league plays zone most of the time and the Bills are certainly not some outlier team stuck almost entirely in zone.

You are way, way, way too low on Green Bay.

Is the scepticism about McDermott's ability to develop safeties? I read it as being scepticisim about the ability of the safeties we have. If they have it, McDermott will find it. I am not sure they have it. Saying I don't think McDermott is going to be able to much with Rapp and Hamlin isn't a reflection on McDermott. It's a reflection on Rapp (who was mostly bad when he played last year) and Hamlin (who was mostly bad when he played the year before). I do, however, like the Cine pickup and hope they can get him up to speed and he makes his way eventually to the 53.

This is a bit of a "one more throw of the dice" year for the 9ers. This squad, which has been together for 4 or 5 years the bones of it, will have to be broken up after this season. I expect 2025 for then to look a bit like we all think 2024 will be for Buffalo. Eat some dead money, move on some older players, try and re-set a bit.

What a shock. Not.

Yea. And the aqueducts.

I am generally out by 1 as well. Been out by two a couple of times. I think 11 wins as well. 11-6 and enough to win the AFC East.

Not all of us. I liked Dean the best of that group and had a 1st/2nd borderline grade on him. The rest I was lower than the consensus on all of then. Was an overrated group. EDIT: not so say Cine isn't a good shot for a team with safety questions like the Bills to take just for the avoidance of doubt. I like it. Just never thought he was a first round talent. EDIT2: I just checked actually was a late 1 on Nakobe Dean. Of that group I had Cine (2nd); T. Walker (2nd/3rd); Dean (1st); Q. Walker (3rd); Tindall (5th); Ringo (4th). I also had 2nds on Devonte Wyatt (who I think has justified it so far) and Jordan Davis (who hasn't).

And with the Jones and Neal duo now both gone he is by far our best gunner. How important a gunner is with the new rules we will find out this season.

53 or PS?

Completely right. It was always a low percentage dart but if it landed you were hitting the bullseye. There should always be space in your draft for a risk or two like that. I slightly disagree with Grable's college tape though. I hadn't watched him pre-draft (despite my spies at the Shrine Game saying he was a practice standout all week). But when I went back post draft and found some 2023 UCF tape.... he was pretty good especially in pass pro. Previous years I didn't get into and with the late transition to tackle (he tried QB and TE before landing at tackle) very possible they were messy. It's hard to grade objectively after the fact but I think had I watched him pre-draft I'd have had higher than a 6th round grade on him. If he hits there are going to be a lot of teams asking their scouts how they missed on him.

I genuinely would watch it. Maybe that makes me sad, but those end of roster decisions are always fascinating to me. I understand the people who say "don't care, has very little impact on the W-L record" I get that. But roster construction and the decisions that underpin it are part of what makes the NFL so interesting.

I agree. It is now. With the elevation rules and the allowing of vested vets the Practice Squad is an extension of your roster. It matters more than it used to. Is it something for people to freak out about, no, but it isn't a complete irrelevance these days in the way you could argue it was say a decade ago.

I get that on Jonathan. And I agree with it. But for Toohill??? That is the bit I don't understand.

Me too. I am also surprised by Toohill over Jonathan even though I know Jonathan had a mixed summer and was probably on the bubble. If they'd kept five ends and used that spot on another position I wouldn't have been at all surprised. For Toohill who has been hurt and looked rough on Saturday to jump him surprises me.

Interesting. They will certainly feel like their gamble paid off.

Yea. Did I expect Shorter would work out? No. The history of those speed, size guys without the college production in the pros is bad. But is that a pick to hate on them for? No. Plenty of picks I'd question the strategy and the thinking behind. This wasn't one of them even though the results were not good.