GunnerBill

49ers injury report yesterday: Williams, Bose and Lenoir all still DNPs. You would think that means trending towards not playing. Purdy still reporting as "limited" but who knows what that means. I still think he is unlikely to go. The one who I do expect to play is Charvarius Ward who has been missing for personal reasons and is now back practicing.

The Bills did not fire Leslie Frazier. I have had it from the horses mouth. He walked away.

Black Friday morning reflections on the late game: - I know Philadelphia are getting a lot of love but I think Green Bay might be the second best team in the conference. They battled through the first half of the season with a nicked up Quarterback but they are going to be a problem in the post season. My only reservation is I don't think they match up great vs the Lions should they meet their division rival in January; - I am an unabashed Jordan Love fan. He is just such an aggressive decision maker and downfield thrower. He makes the odd mistake because he reads everything long to short but while he is the Pack QB they are never going to walk off a field not knowing. In an NFC lacking QB stars, Jordan Love is a QB star; - As for Miami's offense, look I know Achane is a hell of a talented running back but they are at risk of over using him. I felt it at times vs Buffalo and I definitely felt it in that first half last night. Every time you throw to Achane rather than downfield to Waddle or Hill it is kind of a win for the defense. They did get Hill going a bit in the 2nd half but the game was already away from them. When you have two game breaking receivers with elite speed why allow yourself to turn into a dink and dunk running back and tight end offense? It makes no sense; - This game was an advert for DVOA. The last few weeks I have lost count of the number of talking heads lining up to tell us how "Miami's defense has come around." Aaron Schatz of DVOA fame was on Schopp and Bulldog last week and they asked him directly what the numbers said and he said "no, not really they have just played some bad offenses" and would you believe it against a good offense they immediately give up 30, and the Packers were in cruise control 2nd half and could have scored more; - Where does it leave Miami? I think in a "must win out" situation in terms of making the playoffs but even if they don't 9-8 might be enough to make sure everyone stays in a job (most particularly GM Chris Grier). They only face one more team with a winning record - Houston in two weeks - and they themselves are wobbling. The path is narrow but a path remains.

I think he is a good defensive mind. The Jets D has definitely lost something without him. He didn't get it done as a Head Coach. I suspect he now settles into the career DC mode. Bit Jim Schwartz like.

It was not very good in the redzone, we were 30th. But we were 2nd in total yards against, top 5 in pressure rate, top 10 on 3rd down, best in yards per drive against... it was not a good redzone defense and it was put in a lot of bad spots by the useless offense. Overall though the Bills defense in 2018 was pretty good.

I do think you are right that Allen inherited a better defense. Josh's rookie year the D was in year two of the McDermott / Frazier era and they had started to plug their pieces into the scheme. But the ESPN ranking the Bills roster 16th going into 2018 definitely underestimated how bad the pieces on offense were. It was worse than every offensive roster in the drought years IMO (at least going back to 02 from when I can really speak). We had years with worse olines. We had years with worse skill players but the combination of dreadful line and dreadful skill players in 2018 was the worst I can remember. It's telling that three of the starting lineup that year - Ducasse, Bodine and Benjamin - never started another NFL game after 2018. Clay started 10, Shady started 9, Di Marco started 4 and Jordan Mills started 2. That means seven of the Bills starters on offense from the 2018 roster between then combined for 25 starts the rest of their careers after that year. Basically other than Josh and Dion the best players on that offense were Zay Jones and John Miller. Let that sink in.

Back on topic.... Purdy described as limited on the injury report yesterday. Local 9ers reporters saying was in reality "extremely limited" and threw only one pass. I don't think he is going to play.

I don't think Purdy is playing. According to local reporters he threw precisely one pass at practice yesterday. I don't think Bosa makes it either although that is more 50/50. Ward will play, but Lenoir got hurt last week and is out so they are still down a corner.

His ceiling is higher than Goff, sure. The problem is his floor is lower. Goff's median performance is better than Hurts's. As for being "it." What do you mean by "it"? An elite Quarterback? No, he isn't that. I don't think he ever will be. But he is absolutely a franchise Quarterback and a top 10 guy. I don't agree that that isn't "it." Not everyone can have Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes. I think since we have had Josh this fanbase has increasingly moved to "well if you don't have an elite guy you have nothing" when looking outside at other Quarterbacks. Man for 17 years we'd have loved someone as good as Jalen Hurts, or Jared Goff for that matter. Top 10 Quarterbacks are still worth having, even if they are not among the top 2-3 guys in the league.

I mostly agree with you in this thread but just want to clarify the 2017 vs 2018 Bills point here. The 2017 Bills, while not world beaters by any means were a competitive roster. They'd gone 8-8 and 7-9 the previous two years with some of the worst coaching in the entire league. They lost some pieces in 2017, no doubt, Gilmore (their best player at the time) walked, Robert Woods walked, Sammy was traded and then they traded Dareus in season. But they still had LeSean McCoy, they still had a decent offensive line with Cordy Glenn, Incognito and Eric Wood, they had added Tre White who was exceptional as a rookie and Poyer and Hyde to their secondary, and they still had Kyle Williams and Jerry Hughes on the Dline. It was an 7 to 9 win roster, they won the upper end of that range with much improved coaching, a favourable schedule and the bit of luck those sorts of teams need (or needed especially in the 6 team playoff era) to sneak in. The 2018 team team that Allen was drafted onto still had those defensive pieces plus Matt Milano who cracked the lineup late his rookie year but really emerged year 2 and Tremaine Edmunds and Taron Johnson added through the draft (and the 2018 Bills were actually 2nd in the NFL in total defense). BUT, critically, they lost 3 key starters on the offensive line. Glenn was traded as part of the deal to get in position to draft Josh, Eric Wood unexpectedly retired and Richie Incognito had a mental health flare up and demanded his release as a result. That blunted the effectiveness of a 30 year old McCoy and with no running game to speak of the lack of viable wideouts - a problem in 2017, became a crisis. Expecting a rookie Quarterback to play well behind that offensive line and with those weapons was foolish in the extreme. And it really isn't disputable. Brandon Beane himself has said he did a "horrible job" on offense in 2018 and I think he got slightly lucky that they didn't do more lasting long term damage to Josh as a result (beyond a few games missed with injury). If that was a QB who had come from a college superpower it would have IMO. They were fortunate Josh was used to everything around him sucking from his final year at Wyoming and he managed to survive it and grow from there.

Tom Peliserro on Eisen yesterday said he'd be surprised if Johnson interviews for more than 1 or 2 jobs this round. He isn't going to take 3 or 4 interviews like years past where he has interviewed for jobs he isn't sure he wanted then ended up withdrawing, sometimes when teams were basically about to hire him - see Washington last year. I think that is smart. Continually leaving teams at the altar is not good for your reputation. Ben Johnson doesn't need his "name out there" at this point. He is the hottest thing in a headset.... he should only interview for jobs he is convinced he would take if offered. I somewhat doubt that includes the New York Jets. On Joe Douglas's recommendation though. Douglas very much led that search and Saleh was his guy.

It's a good piece, and the overall conclusion that the trick to being great against man might just be having true high end man beating receivers is right in my view. However, on the opposite end you have to have really talented DBs to be successful playing a lot of man coverage. The Jags for instance tried to play man vs Buffalo in week 3 when the Bills were very much still bedding in Keon Coleman and Amari Cooper was still running downfield while Deshaun Watson got sacked.... they were shredded. Why? Because Tyson Campbell was out and the rest of their DBs just aren't good enough to play man coverage even against a mediocre set of Bills receivers. Similarly over the years the Dolphins have tried to play a ton of man against the Bills, and Josh has been excellent against them. Even since they have had Jalen Ramsey, Allen has just looked at the defense, worked out man or zone and if it's man don't throw at Ramsey, throw somewhere else and the others won't be able to carry their assignments. The Chiefs, missing their #1 outside corner Jaylen Watson, took a different tack in week 11 and as a team that normally tries to play the Bills in a lot of man coverage they switched to primarily playing zone. That was likely in part to protect Nazeeh Johnson who was starting opposite Trent McDuffie outside and Chamarri Conner who has replaced McDuffie in the slot since Watson's injury. It didn't work. The Bills targeted Johnson 12 times and had 9 completions for 103 yards and Conner 6 times for 5 completions and 55 yards. But if you are Steve Spagnuolo you probably say to yourself "if they got cooked that bad in zone maybe it was a good thing I didn't play more man." So while there is definitely a question for the Bills as we look toward the post season in respect of "can their receivers win consistently enough vs man coverage?" (and I think that especially applies outside the numbers) there is a question for the teams we are going to face as well as to whether they trust their DBs enough to play us in man, and if they do, does it work?

I mean the Eagles got there beating the 49ers 4th string QB. The only one of the five teams I think you can say have proven their pedigree is the Chiefs... but they, arguably, look the most vulnerable of the five right here today, despite the record. Which isn't me writing them off btw. I still think it is going to takena very good team to knock your guys off in January.

Bad bet.

No tied necessarily but definitely influenced by the owner. The story on Jones is Mara was VERY committted to him. And even this week Jones went straight to ownership for his release. Father - Son relationship is how I've seen it described. Schoen and Daboll should have been stronger though. There is no question on that.

Or any relocation costs!!

And hopefully he'll have a full offseason where he is healthy. Missing the whole of camp as a rookie DB in this system in particular is tough to overcome.

He could do a lot worse.

From his college film, he is plenty physical enough. We haven't seen that yet when he has been on the field for the Bills but I think that is because of the second issue - his head is spinning and he is out of position and not able to just run and hit as a result. The bigger worry for me is how long the mental adjustment has taken. He missed camp, so I'll give him a bit of a pass, but some players struggle to get it mentally and that is keeping him on the bench more than anything else.

Spielmen was a pretty good GM in Minnesota. It was probably time for a change in the end, he'd been there 10 years, but I think they generally had solid rosters during that period.

To be clear I don't think your way of looking at it is unreasonable. But you stsrted fron a premise that "only Bills fans could look at it different" and it was ridiculous to have a different view. That isn't true. The Bills body of work this decade is extremely impressive. Comfortably the 2nd best team in football over the 4 and a half years. Does that count for more than winning a Superbowl? No. But does it count for more than teams who have the same problem we do - can't get past the Chiefs? I think that bit is debatable.

So I was talking about since 2020 rather than the Josh's entire career. My opinion is the Bills have been the best team not to win a Superbowl in that period.

Yea. That weak conference produced one Superbowl Champion in thr 4 years we are talking about. The other 3 years the Superbowl Champion was the team neither the Bills nor the 9ers can beat in the playoffs. In fact the 9ers can't beat them at all. What is "my thing" is the full body of work. That is what I set out. I don't hide from where they have out perfomed us. But the reality is both teams have the same problem. In crunch time they can't beat the Kansas City Chiefs.

But what would you give up for him?

Arguably. Those Green Bay teams were pretty flawed and the Bills beat them very easily in the regular season so I think it is arguable that only that Lions win last year really was a against a high quality team. Yes, they have two conference championship. Depends how you quantify it. In this decade: Wins: Bills 57 (2nd); 49ers 46 (6th) Points: Bills 2,210 (1st); 49ers 1,994 (7th) Points against: Bills 1,475 (1st); 49ers 1,552 (2nd) Division titles: Bills 4; 49ers 2 Playoff wins: Bills 5; 49ers 6 Conference championships: Bills 0, 49ers 2 Superbowls: Bills 0; 49ers 0 Demonstrably false. Cowboys ranks in that time: Wins: 45 (9th) Points: 2,088 (2nd) Points against: 1,781 (15th) Division titles: 2 Playoff wins: 1 Conference Championships: 0 Superbowls: 0