GunnerBill

It doesn't have to be a DL it can be a secondary player who teams are actively scared to throw at. I just don't think we have anyone in that tier right now.

I hate blitzing. It sucks. That was a darn stupid blitz on 4th and 13. Just play the sticks.

I think Groot and Ed are the two guys who have that level of talent. It just hasn't translated to consistently doing it. They have been game wreckers at times but it's that guy the opposition knows beforehand every week "right we gotta keep X quiet to win." I think what @Dan says about Oliver above applies equally to Groot. For us to make it through the playoffs and win the Superbowl we are going to need one of them to play out of their minds for 3 or 4 games. I don't think he was at their level talent wise but remember the year Baltimore won it Paul Kruger the pass rusher with long hair played incredible in the post season. Sacking Quarterbacks, forcing fumbles, he just turned into a monster for like 4 weeks. We need something like that. Kruger signed a big FA deal with Cleveland after the season and was never heard of again 🤣.

Oh I completely know there are things I don't know, especially when it comes to evaluating draft prospects. I only have the bits of film I can get my hands on and the time I have to go through it. I do have a small group of people I can message who might give me a little bit of intel but I don't overuse that, as you say - busy folks spread thin - they don't need to bombarded by questions from amateurs. I had a third on Stevenson in 23. I had a third on Taylor as well this past year. He was the highest graded player left on my board at the end of the draft.

Yea they need a player who dictates on defense. They haven't had one since Tre did the first injury. When he was in his prime the Bills could dictate where they wanted the ball to go because teams didn't want to test White often even when he was one on one. We don't have anyone in the secondary or up front who affects gameplans like that these days.

I have not ignored my opinion about Josh being wrong. Not ever. It is fully accepted. As for Daboll.... I didn't hail him as a genius. I said he was a good offensive coordinator here. He was. So is Brady. Dorsey wasn't horrible, he started quite promisingly. But it went downhill fast.

Thanks. Happy New Year. I think the qay they approached the depth at OL this year. They kept all the potential high ceilings and let the safe, solid, vets go. Might have been cap driven but it was noteworthy I think given previously they have valued that experienced depth.

Ooo good point.

Yea he is definitely a possible. I have got the possible elevations down to WR, TE, S. Two from those three.

Oh I think they do. The last time they tied it under Daboll in 2021 they tried a pass in the endzone to Taiwan Jones. You don't do that if you are not record chasing. Was about the first thing Josh mentioned in his presser after Sunday. I all but guarantee they will give a red zone target to someone who hasn't scored a TD this year on Sunday.

I mean it is both of those. There is more randomness than most fans like to admit. But you are absolutely right that the way to reduce the variance is to have as many elite difference makers as possible and the Bills haven't had enough of them around Allen. Some of that is on their talent evaluation and acquisition and on Beane and to an extent McDermott, some of it is bad luck. Lost their only elite defensive player (Tre White) in 2021 before the playoffs. Brought Von Miller in to be that difference maker in 2022 and lost him before the playoffs that year too. I do think their roster building plan has over emphasised depth and competition at the expense of difference makers though. I think they are trying to pivot on that but we will need to see this roster re-set go into years 2 and 3 to know whether it is successful.

If we made the Superbowl the Eagles are the team I'd least like to see waiting. They have arguably the best pair of trenches OL and DL in the entire league. I don't think we's be "controlling the line of scrimmage" against them.

Of course this is Josh Allen's offense. There is no disputing that. But of the three OCs they have had supporting him in that endevour there is zero point zero per cent doubt that Dorsey was the least able. To keep taking shots at the other two while defending Dorsey's modern day iteration of the chuck and duck is baffling. He is likely about to be fired from his second OC job in just over a year within the next fortnight. I am not worried about Brady getting a Head Coach job. It is going to happen at some point. Just an inevitability. I don't think there is an internal candidate ready to jump in this time, so they'll have to hire from outside. My only worry would be them picking the wrong guy again. Like they did with Dorsey.

Of course they are. Franchise QB always matters more than anything else. That isn't revelationary. It's just fact. But that doesn't get you to where you think it does on coaching.

Brady and Dorsey are not interchangeable. That is laughabe. But I know you will defend your canes guy. It's understandable. But it is not objective.

I don't think that is true of the last 5 years. It is about right this year.

Following this math, it is worth about 2 wins for your QB to be in group 1 rather than group 2. 100/17 means each game is worth 5.8%. 11% win difference between the two groups equates to about two games. Allen was in the 60s last year and the Bills won 11 games. He is in the 70s this year we have won 13. So it sorta checks out. Still, not a lover of QBR and don't know that the analysis proves anything. But the difference between your QB having a good year and a great year being about 2 wins doesn't feel a wild conclusion.

I like the Gilliam idea actually. Fake a screen out one side to Cook then dump off the other way to Reggie.

You need to call White up to do that. The emergency QB rules require both the other two to be injured. And I think the spots are needed in other places. There isn't enough difference for me between Trubisky and White to protect Trubisky.

Nope.

Total Football was a complete re-imagining of the way the game was played. It was true innovation. I'm a Joe Brady fan. I supported the hire, I said repeatedly I think he has a smart offensive mind and that I was optimistic about a full season of him running the offense. But he hasn't re-imagine offensive football. He hasn't changed the way that teams play. He's just done a really good job of putting players in positions to make plays and unlike Dorsey hasn't tried to force a system that the players can't execute upon them. He uses guys according to their skills and doesn't force square pegs into round holes. I give him a ton of credit. Comparing him to Rinus Michels is hyperbolic nonsense though.

Add to this to put 2 practice squaders UP for the game that means you need to declare seven guys inactive. Even the guys that sat last week went into Sunday with "questionable" designations so as of right now there is no reason to assume anyone is definitely OUT. Let's work on everyone being healthy. How do you deal with the seven inactives to allow you to have 2 PS guys up and all your backups up if you want them to play most of the game? My guess is something like: Cooper (vet receiver, important to opening the outside up for the rest of the offense need him for the playoffs) Kincaid (you will have Morris and Knox and can use Gilliam / extra lineman) Von Miller (had two decent games back to back, if it was really all about keeping him fresh for the playoffs why risk him in a meaningless game) Jones (you have six DTs on the active roster, feels like a chance to give one of your starters a night off and the Bills usually rest the more veteran guy first in such situations) Milano (had his best game but again, wrapping a vet in cotton wool) Douglas (been struggling a bit with the knee and again I always err on the side of the Bills resting the older guy first when between two at a spot based on their history) Rapp (if they want to get Hyde up then this is the route to do it potentially, Rapp is their best safety in a weak room) Critically as well none of those guys play special teams. That gives you 46 active roster guys: 2x QB; 1x FB; 3x RB; 2x TE; 4x WR; 9x OL; 4x DE; 5x DT; 5x LB; 5x CB; 3x S Which means your likely call ups are a 5th receiver and a 4th safety with an outside chance of a 3rd tight end. So let's say they go Virgil (who could also rest Codrington on returns) and either Cine or Hyde. I think then you are looking at pulling Allen, Cook, Shakir, Dawkins, Brown, McGovern, Oliver, Rousseau, Bernard and Benford after max 1 or 2 series. So the lineup looks something like: Trubisky, Davis, Knox, Coleman, Hollins, Samuel, Grable, Edwards, Anderson, Torrence, Van Demark Epensea, Carter, Phillips, Smoot, Andreesen, Williams, Lewis, Ingram, Elam, Hamlin, Bishop Then later (mid 3rd Qrtr maybe) you probably want to pull one of your guards, Coleman, Knox, Epenesa and Hamlin and get Virgil, Morris, Solomon and Hyde / Cine on the field. That is broadly how I would expect them to play it based on their general approach to these things and the challenge of managing the roster.

I stick by what I said pre-season. He is Austin Ekeler playing receiver. He runs routes a bit like a back in that it isn't about precision and getting to a spot it's about finding space, and then when he has the ball in his hands it is using his low centre of gravity and his natural contact balance to be slippery and tough for defenders to get down.

Let me start with my projection. I know there is one game left (not sure how much he will play) but that is pretty spot on in terms of yards and TDs. He is at 821 and 4 TDs. He's done it on slightly more targets and receptions than I thought. We all knew his yards per reception would fall as his volume increased but I didn't quite account enough for that.... so 100 catches, 76 receptions to get to 821 and 4. Then in terms of my rationale I think point 1 has rung true to a large extent. Shakir has played 61% of our offensive snaps. He missed one game, so that plays a part, but he has been off the field a ton in big personnel packages which have been lots of 12, not necessarily the way I envisioned it, it has been more Anderson as a 6th lineman nominal 'jumbo tight end' rather than lots of Knox and Kincaid. But my general theory this was not the Daboll Bills offense that was gonna be in 75% 11 personnel has been correct. Point 2 has been less true. I think Josh has been more patient and Brady has designed the offense and the game plan in a way to allow Josh to still feel like he is being aggressive while showing patience and he has played his best ball. So has Khalil Shakir arrived? Yes I think he has. I think this is who he is. Could he have a 1,000 yard season somewhere in his career? My view hasn't changed on that - he could. But he isn't going to be a regular 1,000 yard receiver. He is much more of a guy who will live in that 750-900 yards range for the most part. That isn't a knock. It isn't a criticism. We should be celebrating a 5th round pick who we think turns into that sort of consistent contributor to the offense, not holding up 1,000 yards as some sort of arbitrary test of whether he is any good or not.

Sure. Sunday was a significant step forward for him though. He moved better in coverage and he was more decisive attacking his gaps in the run game. Sue he missed the tackle on Adams on the crosser but that is a darn difficult play for any linebacker. Hopefully we get something resembling the real Matt Milano from hereon in. We will need it.