GunnerBill

Yea we know Spotrac and Beane were $6m apart at the Combine. Spotrac at that stage was projecting the Bills $10m over the cap and Beane was asked about it in his presser and said "right now we are about $4m". You can speculate why that difference was, but I think it is fair to say they were working on slightly different assumptions.

I wouldn't say third most talented. Diggs was still plenty talented. Third most explosive, sure. He was, last season, a guy who you say "I'm fine him having 8 catches because they will be for 10 yards a pop and not hurt me" whereas go back 3 years if Diggs had 8 catches he probably had 150 yards and 2 touchdowns and had wrecked your gameplan. Whether he is still the guy he even was in Houston is the question on the back of the ACL. And you are right to say it is different being a productive slot when you have explosive guys outside compared to when you have nothing outside and teams can key in on you.

You are still looking at version 1. But I disagree on Ezeiruaku having elite upside. I don't see much ceiling there. To me he is already kinda close to his maximum. High floor, kinda low ceiling. However, in version 2 you will see he doesn't even make it to the Bills' first round pick. Equally, if I was doing a second round now I wouldn't take JTT there either.

He was still a pretty productive slot receiver last year in Houston pre-injury. I don't think he was finished. He could still separate laterally he just couldn't separate vertically anymore. Whether you pay a 31 year old receiver who had lost his fastball and basically become a slot even before his ACL $23m AAV for three years....? Yea only if you are a bad team with more money than sense. My guess is Stef will do okay for them. 600 to 750 yards and 4 or 5 touchdowns. But he won't perform up to that contract.

They were certainly at a talent disadvantage vs the Eagles but they were thorougly and utterly outcoached too. On both sides of the ball. Reid was awful. It was like in the first half he was trying to call plays that played straight into what the Eagles were doing. There was some adjustment second half but it was too late. I agree that if they were going to win that Superbowl they had to win the coaching battle to overcome the superior talent. They lost it resoundingly.

For sure familiarity plays a part in the Bills - Chiefs matchups. The Bills caught them on the hop in the regular season with all the man coverage but when they tried it again in the playoffs Mahomes and Reid were prepared and shredded it. But man.... watching the Superbowl the Chiefs had no answers coaching wise. It was like they defeated us and then spent two weeks with their feet up.

But it is flat our bizarre that they ran plays against the Bills in the AFCCG that they hadn't run all season long. Five of them on offense including the one that finally iced the game. Maybe they did on D as well I don't know I only have the number for their O. And then when they couldn't move the ball basically at all for a half they ran zero new plays against the Eagles in the Superbowl. I am not claiming conspriacy or anything but far from playing the Chiefs being the Bills Superbowl it actually feels the other way around. The Chiefs put more effort into beating us than they did into trying to win a third consecutive Lombardi. They definitely outcoached us in the AFCCG (although they out executed us too). Probably their biggest coaching win vs us in the playoffs since the first AFCCG. But it was like they threw everything at the Bills and had nothing left for Philly.

That in itself is a worry. Because Johnston is awful.

Agree with this. Palmer is a way better option than Cooks or Hollins at this stage. As I said I'd have been in on Brown, but I acknowledge he is riskier and the Bills were looking for a legit floor because they have nothing else at the spot. They got themselves here when they wouldn't go up a few extra picks for Jordan Addison or Brian Thomas or when they passed on the likes of Christian Watson for Kaiir Elam (I know Watson has been a walking injury but who knows if that happens here, he has been productive when on the field).

That is a very good point......

Yea, agreed, it is. I actually would have been partial to a flier on Dyami. I loved him coming out and I do think opportunity was part of the problem. Washington never really seemed to trust him. No doubt they had their reasons for that, but he really did pop at the end of last year. Maybe a fluke? Definitely possible. But if it wasn't and the light has just finally gone on he is better than any of the other FA WRs. I'm fine with Palmer. It is what it is. The market is horrible and he is at least a legit outside receiver in the NFL even if he kinda feels like the baseline of what the Bills need is rather than anything more.

I am not sure corner is that deep personally. I think you have Hunter, Barron and Johnson in the first tier (plus Revel on the fringe but with major medical red flags). Then you have Amos, Hariston, Morrison (major injury red flags), Thomas in the second tier, plus Porter who is kinda of tier 2 and a half. After those 9 guys there are not a ton of guys I'd feel confident in saying would come in and beat out a vet like Dane Jackson who knows the system as rookies. Are there some guys who can and will improve past Dane with some development and time on task? Sure. But if the Bills best available at a premium position in round 1 isn't a corner then IMO they should try and move up in round two to get one of those guys (or find another still unsigned vet on the market). Otherwise more likely than not Dane Jackson will start the season opposite Christian Benford.

It is sort of the market though. Gabe got $24m guaranteed from the Jags last year and they are similar tier of player IMO. They are guys that are low end #2s outside who you'd ideally love to have as your 3rd outside receiver in the rotation. As to why the Bills are having to fish in that market for a semi-proven outside receiver..... the answer lies in their under investment in the position at draft time between Diggs trade and Keon selection and then question marks about whether Keon is really a true outside, vertical threat guy.

Fair enough. I don't necessarily think you are wrong on the athleticism bit. But I do think it is a significant problem for him creating separation on boundary routes and it limits his ceiling IMO. Using the basketball skills in the redzone - absolutely - but elsewhere that same technique is hurting him.

My biggest problem with them.... well let me be more specific, with Erik, is that he is incredibly thin skinned to legitimate disagreement. It's like their narrative is the only narrative.

Ahhhhh now Erik's video last week defending Groot's dreadful performance in the AFCCG makes a lot more sense...... Shills gotta shill.

My view on pick #30 is they should take the guy they think has the best chance to be a high end difference maker at a premium position - Edge, WR, CB - within 2 years. I think elite talent is a bigger need on this team than any single position.

Yea I thought watching the Franklin tape last year that Tez was gonna be at least an early day 2 guy. He popped every time you watched the film. He was the best receiver on that team. But his 2024 tape was less impressive and his run at the combine was really disappointing. Sometimes you think smaller guys are running faster than they are because of the perpetual motion and low centre of gravity. He was in my top 10 at one point but he is I think WR15 for me now.

Yuck. The idea of rubbing anyone's feet is frankly, disgusting.

I promise you nothing would make me vomit quicker.

It is partly his footwork - especially off the line - that is right. But it is largely that he plays to contact. He wants to feel the DB and play off that. It means he gives up leverage constantly, closes his own spaces and ends up reactive instead of proactive in his routes. I am sure it is his basketball background coming out but that is a concern because it means it is probably deeply ingrained in him. There is a lot of unlearning for him to do. He has to completely change the way he runs downfield routes if he ever wants to separate. It doesn't happen when he is in the slot and gets a free release. In those situations he dictates where he is going and makes defenders react to him. But if he is lined up against a DB outside he looks for that DB and plays off the contact. Unless he fixes it his ceiling is limited.

Oh I think they will contend. I just think this is the year they lose a close one somewhere in the post season.

Before last draft we were tied 32nd.

I don't think KC makes the Superbowl in 2025. I am not saying the Bills will but last time after a bashing in the Superbowl they didn't make it back the next year.

Excellent post. Agree with every word.