BarleyNY

The rule of 51 applies at this time. That means only the top 51 players on the roster count toward the total cap number.

That's certainly true, but with the money being spent on Clay and many other draft needs I don't see how the Bills acquire a complete TE the caliber of a Heath Miller. I was just trying to focus on what might be more attainable right now. I certainly wasn't clear about that.

I love complete TEs like Miller, but I'm not sure that's the best pairing with Clay. Clay is a do-everything-well kind of TE. Wasn't that the allure? He could create mismatches because he could do so many different things? The Bills would be better served to combine Clay with a flex TE who is a stud receiver. Even if that's all the other TE could do really well.

I'd be absolutely stunned. Let's look at the facts: - Mario isn't happy with his use in Rex's system and would rather be primarily rushing the QB. - Rex can get a much cheaper player to do what he wants (drop in coverage, maintain the edge, occasionally rush the QB). - The Bills need the cap space Mario's release would give them, badly. - Mario is due a $2.5M roster bonus in a few weeks. Barring a big change in defensive philosophy and a willingness to allow Mario to rush the passer the table is set for a very bad situation. Mario was clearly very frustrated last season. He sure looked like he was phoning it in at times in the last game or two. He had already heard the rumors of his imminent release. It isn't a good situation now and I s there any reason to think that there won't be worse problems if he's kept for 2016? Since Rex and his defensive philosophy aren't going anywhere in 2016, Mario is.

Yes, they are. I was like "WTF? MIKE FREAKING ADAMS IS LISTED NUMBER ONE FOR LEFT TACK......oh, it's alphabetical."

Mario is one season removed from a different scheme and 14.5 sacks. He had 13 the year prior and 10.5 the year before that. Players get old and lose a step, but that hasn't happened to Mario yet. Some team will pay him and, if they use him properly, he'll get double digit sacks again next season. Some of the fans are blaming Mario because it is convenient. He's hilly paid and on the way out which makes him an easy target for blame. But the whole defense went from top 5 in most categories to bottom third of the league in most. None of the front seven had the stats they did the previous year. Hughes went from 10 to 5 sacks. Did he lose a step? That is on Rex and his staff, not the players.

God bless you! You've saved the thread!

I agree on both counts. He definitely will not be the highest paid LT whether or not he hits FA and the Bills are unlikely to be able to compete financially if he does hit free agency. Some team will get stupid. Not highest paid LT in NFL stupid, but stupid.

Agreed. I'd throw in the asinine deal we gave Clay and the $6M we pissed away on Harvin as well. Tagging Glenn and trying to work out a long term deal might be the best strategy.

Thanks for the info.

Agreed. It's difficult to skip the pissing matches and still catch the relevant posts. Also I'm going to have to respectfully demand a larger pic of your avatar.

Zero chance. He's due a $2.5M roster bonus well before the draft. I don't see a date for it, but it's usually in March right after the start of the league year. Plus he's got a $500k workout bonus that might or might not be in play pre-draft. Then you have the issue of not having the cap space his release would free up until draft day - which means basically all of the free agents it could be spent on are gone. Also the odds that any potential trade partner would actually have enough cap space to acquire him on draft day is pretty slim. He will be off the team no later than the day his roster bonus is due. Incidentally, if the Bills don't pay that roster bonus he becomes a free agent immediately upon them missing the payment date. That only applies to any future guaranteed money (and even in those cases there are sometimes offsets). Mario has nothing guaranteed so the dead money and cap hit is exactly the same whether he's traded or released.

I won't repeat who others have said, but you don't pay a guy who is Kyle's age $6.5M on the off chance that he can convert from DT to DE.

Up front money, particularly the signing bonus, is usually the only guaranteed money a player gets and is a huge factor in negotiations. The upper echelon players have been getting more guarantees of late and Clay's contract is an extreme example of that. He got guaranteed money totaling $24.5M in the first two seasons and only $13.5M in non-guaranteed money in years 3-5. It was structured that way to make sure Miami wouldn't match, but it is not a smart contract structure and seems far in excess of what Miami would have matched. http://overthecap.com/player/charles-clay/675/ The other reason for large signing bonuses is that teams can entice a player to sign by offering a large initial payout, but can defer the cap hit by prorating it over a number of years (up to 5). Most contract structures do have rising salaries as years go on. Usually a contract is structured with a relatively large signing bonus, but small base salaries in the first year or two. Then larger salaries that increase over the duration of the deal. Sometimes there is even a huge salary in the last season to either artificially inflate the overall size of the contract (agents like that) or to force a new contract (sort of a pre-negotiated tag without using a tag). Lastly, if a player is on his last deal sometimes the salaries will drop off at the end. That is rare, but it happens. It is a nice structure if a player wants to end his career with a team, but sees a drop off in play on the horizon.

It seems like you don't understand how the cap works - or you're already thinking about parting ways with Clay. The Clay contract was stupid, but eating the whole $10M roster bonus this offseason is point.ess unless you're looking at cutting him in the very near future. The Bills can take the full $10M hit this season or take $2.5M this season and defer $7.5M to future years when the hits would be a smaller percentage of the total cap. They can also roll that $7.5M in space they saved forward, which is exactly the same as if they don't defer it.

Since cap space can be carried forward this makes no sense. A restructure give the Bills more cap flexibility.

I totally agree. My worry is that Mario is only the first domino to fall and that we will see a big turnover in the front seven. There is a lot of talent in that group as well as a lot of money invested in them. It'd be a shame to see them wasted and dismantled because the coaches only know how to run a passive, 2 gap defense.

I'd like to clarify something here. I would rarely (almost never) want to see big free agent spending spree. I prefer to build through the draft and reasonably priced free agents to fill in the holes. What I'd refer to as salary cap hell is when a team's salary cap situation causes a huge purge of (decrease in) talent. That's why I've been referring to their situation as "salary cap heck". It won't be a huge purge of talent like New Orleans, but I see a decrease in overall talent even with a draft. The people they signed last year got them to an 8-8 record. I don't exactly see a big improvement in that record if they can't improve the talent on the team. The only other avenue for improvement is improved utilization of talent or improved health. I don't see a huge help from either and I'm not one to sit and hope they'll just get lucky.

Yes, it will add $7.5M in space for 2016. It's simply changing Clay's guaranteed $10M roster bonus to a signing bonus. Instead of taking the entire hit in 2016, it'll get spread out as $2.5M hits over four years (including 2016).

Thanks for posting. That was definitely worth reading.

Exactly.

Mario had 14.5 sacks in 2014 and 13 in 2013. He had 5 last season. Hughes dropped from 10 to 5 for reference. The production from Mario's spot might not see much of a drop, but the potential for production from his position sure will. Added production last season? Not really much, if any overall. It sure didn't show up in the Bills' record.

That's a lot of expectations for a lot of improvement. Maybe it happens, but I'm not putting money on all of that. Besides, that doesn't account for any players whose play falls off. Freed up money doesn't directly equate to talent acquired. In fact, the likeliest destinations for Mario's salary cap savings are retention of current players. That is a net loss.

New Orleans is in cap hell, the Bills are in cap heck. It's manageable, but the current situation will make it difficult to stay even or improve in terms of overall talent.

On the Mario or Rex issue, they certainly don't coexist well. I understand Mario has to go - for a variety of reasons. But if he had still been in a defense where rushing the passer was his primary responsibility we'd probably be talking about the possibility of a contract extension for him to lower his cap hit, not the inevitability of his exit. I hate seeing coaches waste talent like with Mario. It points to inflexibility on their part. The best coaches make the most of what they have to work with. The problem I have on the personnel side is that Glenn and Incognito or Mario wasn't the only choice here. It might be now, but there were other places money for Mario (especially if his deal was reworked) could have come from. It doesn't make sense to do that based on his responsibilities in the current scheme, but if he was still primarily rushing the passer it sure might have been. The Bills have spent poorly/questionably recently: a tremendous overpayment for Clay, Shady's huge deal and $6M thrown away on Harvin last season leap to mind. Then there are the Dareus and Hughes deals that looked very reasonable when they were signed, but now I find somewhat questionable due to scheme. Paying big money to players that excelled in an attacking one-gap scheme, then making them change to a more passive two-gap scheme has trouble written all over it. I just do not see how the defense improves much next season. It's not about the players becoming familiar with the scheme, it's that most of the front seven talent doesn't fit the scheme.