Brandon

He's definitely not going to like it, but at the same time, he's right. Turner could potentially benefit from this a year down the road. In fact, teams may be willing to pay him a LOT more money knowing that they also don't have to give up a draft pick in the process.

I don't know if its really that bad of a deal for him. With contracts escalating the way they are, he may actually make $5-10 million more by waiting a year. Injury is a threat, of course, but as a backup carrying who has gotten less than 100 carries each year, his odds of making it through the season are pretty good.

I don't want that to happen, either, but it might not cost a 2nd. A combination of picks this year and next could help spare the 43rd pick.

Sounds good to me.

With the way rosters turn over every few years, I'm beginning to believe that it makes a lot more sense to go for the difference makers rather than to try to plug every hole with a decent player. I'm not sure that a team can eliminate all of the weaknesses on a roster anymore. As soon as a team fills one need, it seems as though FA causes another to appear, so there doesn't seem to be a point in even trying that route these days. I think the best bet is to pick up a couple of excellent players and hope that they can mask some of the weaknesses that a team will inevitably have.

I think there's a very strong chance that they'll trade up, either from 12 to select Peterson, or from 43 to get one of the OLBs late in R1 after selecting Peterson, Lynch or Meachem at 12. I believe that this is a weak draft and would not trade down.

His situation kind of reminds me of what happened to Kevin Thomas a few years ago. Thomas was rated by most as a 2nd/3rd round type guy before he ran a 4.64 at the combine. The Bills ended up drafting him in the 6th and he ended up being a pretty decent 3rd CB before he got hurt. I don't know if Hughes will fall that far, but most teams draft speed and athleticism early, and if there are question marks especially about a WR, CB, or RB prospect in that regard, that player is probably in trouble on draft weekend though he may ultimately succeed in the NFL. I think Hughes will probably go in R4.

There are really only two media talking heads I bother paying attention to in the lead-up to the draft. Rick Gosselin, who is usually the most accurate of all the mock drafters (though its the last one published on the morning of the draft that you should read). The other is Mike Mayock of NFL Network. The rest have about as much of a clue as I do, which isn't saying much.

Rising: 1) OT Joe Staley -- top 15 pick, possibly even to Houston at 10. 2) CB Eric Wright -- wouldn't be on my draftboard in any round, but will probably go in the first 3) WR Robert Meachem -- I expect him to go anywhere from 8th to 19th. Falling 1) RB Michael Bush -- A potential R2 pick at one point. His stock seems to be in freefall following a second surgery on his broken leg in late March. R6/7, but possibly undrafted. 2) RB Tony Hunt -- Another R2/3 RB. Hunt's stock won't take an enormous hit, but I think he's an early day 2 pick now. 3) CB Dameion Hughes -- People are calling Paul Posluszny slow because of his 40 time. Well, Hughes ran an almost identical time and a poor overall workout as well. He probably doesn't deserve it, but I think he'll fall into R4 or even 5

I can't really disagree with you. He's decent, but not great or perhaps even good. That said, it provides an interesting contrast to the prevailing attitude among Bills fans regarding the RB position. Taylor would seem to be a perfectly acceptable 'average' RB according to what I've read here. Note that I'm not saying that you adhere to that belief, but that its prevalent among the fanbase. Myself, I don't think its true. I believe that if you're putting the ball in one player's hands 300+ times per year, he needs to be pretty damn good.

I think his assessment of this draft is correct. At most positions, there are one or two really good players, but then a significant dropoff to the 2nd tier. There's a reason the 2006 draft was SO good, and its because a record number of juniors declared a year ago and most were good-to-very-good prospects. That weakened this senior class, and the junior crop that is supplementing this group is pretty average. This is a below average draft. I definitely would not trade down this year. In fact, I think it makes far more sense for the Bills to repeat their 2006 draft strategy and trade back up from 43 into the latter half of R1 if possible. As for the Vikings, I don't see why they'd be desperate. Chester Taylor isn't ideal, but he's good enough that they could easily pass on Peterson and still have a very effective rushing attack. He rushed for 1,216 yards and 6 TDs, averaged 4.0 yards per carry, and caught 42 passes for 288 yards. They need a short yardage Rb such as Tony Hunt or Dewayne Wright more than a true #1. They would seem to need a WR far worse, as their leading WR, Travis Taylor, caught only 57 passes for 651 yards. They might even be a realistic trade candidate for the Bills, as a trade back to 12 would put them into the beginning of the range where Meachem is likely to be selected. None of this is to say that they definitely won't draft Peterson, but its far from a certainty that they will.

Do you just cut and paste this from every post?

I don't think I'd include the #2 pick. I'd offer the 12th and 74th pick and then just see if anyone decided to bite. It likely won't be enough to get the Bills to #6, most likely, but might be sufficient to provide a smaller move up the board should he fall to perhaps 8th or 10th overall. As for Lynch, if he's a target for Green Bay at 16, then the Bills' only realistic choice is likely to just select him at 12. To move up from 43 back into the first half of R1 would almost certainly cost us at least next year's #1 pick, possibly even more.

I'd be very suprised if they select him. He's dangerous due to his speed, no doubt about it, but from all reports he's also a poor route runner who is going to be a major project for the team that drafts him. For that reason, I definitely don't compare him to Lee Evans (who was very NFL-ready), but to Roscoe Parrish. He's more talented than Roscoe, but a lot of the same positives and negatives still seem to apply.

Although the following article is about Patrick Willis, there's an interesting Tom Modrak quote in the first two paragraphs that pretty much answers that question: “It’s a pretty good group overall,” said Tom Modrak, the Bills’ assistant general manager and head of college scouting. “We have a little advantage in that our linebackers don’t have to be a certain height or weight. If they can run, play downhill and are smart, they’ve got a chance to be successful in this defense.” http://www.buffalonews.com/213/story/52813.html

The most compensatory picks that any team can receive is four.

I like Harris quite a bit better than Siler and I think he's underrated. Unfortunately, I also think that he'll probably go in the 25-35 range, so if the Bills want him, they would have to trade up from 43 in order to select him (I would not trade down to do so). I also agree with your assessment of this year's RB class. The talent drops off a cliff from Peterson and Lynch to the next group available. I like Pittman, Irons and Jackson the best of the remaining RBs by far, but I still wonder if there's a starter in the group.

I like it, but there are some very serious character concerns with both Eric Wright and Juwan Simpson.

Its very close between Willis and Lynch. I've been in favor of drafting Lynch, but some arguments regarding Pittman and a couple of other 2nd round RBs are starting to convince me that those guys can play. My opinion of Posluszny is also improving, though there's still a gap between he and Willis/Lynch. So I'm leaning, if very slightly, towards believing Patrick Willis should be their pick at 12. My top 5 of that group would be: 1) MLB Patrick Willis 2) RB Marshawn Lynch 3) OLB Paul Posluszny 4) WR Robert Meachem 5) CB Leon Hall

As far as I know, Posluszny's knee injury didn't even require surgery. His mid-4.6 40 isn't great, but its better than a lot of NFL LBs, including Ellison and Crowell. He's not my first choice at #12, but if the Bills select him, I'm pretty confident that he'll be a very good player. BTW, Lee Evans also looked a half-step slow during much of his senior season following a much more severe knee injury. He was lucky that he was 100% (or close to it) for the combine and proved the doubters wrong.

Considering the contracts we've seen handed out at the position this offseason, its probably not unthinkable that Turner would receive $35-45 million over 6 or 7 years from someone in the next offseason. If he follows that up with even a 1,000-1,200 yard season, I think he could very easily net the Chargers a 4th round compensatory pick in 2009 assuming they sign no outside FAs.

That may or may not be true, but he's not the player that the original poster asked about.

It makes perfect sense given the Chargers' status as a Super Bowl contender. Should Ladainian Tomlinson be injured, Turner has proven that he can be very effective within their system. They're not rebuilding and certainly don't *need* the draft pick. Unless they know that they can draft an immediate impact player with the pick received, it makes more sense for AJ Smith to hang onto Turner for 2007, even if it means losing him for no compensation a year from now. Turner simply provides more value to that particular team than would a 2nd round pick. On the other hand, for a team like the Bills, he would seem to be a poor value given that a RB could easily be selected in R2 or 3 that will immediately improve this team. Now maybe we can argue that Pittman, Irons or whoever isn't as good as Turner, but there's little question that the 600-800 yards they'll likely provide this upcoming season would make the Bills a MUCH better team than they currently are. In other words, the Bills (and others in need of a RB) don't necessarily need Turner in order to signficantly upgrade their team. This is why he'll remain a Charger. He actually IS worth a 1st to them, yet every team actually needing a RB could reasonably expect to make a significant upgrade at the position in the upcoming draft with even a 2nd or 3rd round pick. Its not going to happen unless someone, including the Chargers, gets desperate for some reason.

You're not going to get any disagreement from me. I'm very skeptical of Turner and would rather the Bills steer clear of him.

Its definitely not hate for Tony Hunt, but definitely concern over whether or not he's just a good collegiate RB. Its not just his 40 time. His overall workout was very poor. I look at him and see another Jonathan Linton; a player with good strength, intangibles and receiving skills, but quite possibly lacking the athleticism necessary to play in the NFL.